Speaking about alternative explanations: I can imagine that some Arab states played pleasing both parties. They gave in to US American wishes when they knew (they'd be stupid if they had no clandestine contact with Iraq) that Saddam would shortly later announce to allow inspections. So they promised the Americans something they knew before they had not to give (for there would be no new UN resolution) and at the same time made sure the strong neighbour would not be miffed.

US planning and strategy doesn't look good these days. I simply cannot understand that Iraq's move seemed to surprise the US government. Don't they think in alternatives like: What shall we do when...?

If they had the intention (and it looks a bit the Cheney faction has/had) to overthrow the regime in Iraq anyway Bush's UN speech was a mistake, for the quick response of the dictator ("you win, I give in") took away a lot of possible justifications for an invasion. If you make public demands you must at least consider what do to if all or most of the demands are met.

Wolfgang