It'd be very foolish of him to do it, and it would have incalculable risks, and the overall effect would be likely to be disastrous.

I wish that was another way of saying I'm sure he won't do it - but it isn't. Governments sometimes do very foolish things.

For example, announcing this new "Bush doctrine" at this time was extraordinarily stupid - it will have had the effect all over the world of getting the backs up of people who might be expected to be sympathetic towards the USA. It was the last way to talk to the world at this time.

Except of course he wasn't talking to the world, he was talking to his supporters at home - and he was sending a clear message of contempt to the rest us around the world. The suggestion that an administration which could do that is really engaged in a cunning game of bluff designed to avoid war, or even is anxious to win support for an internationally backed war against Iraq just doesn't stand up.