McGrath, where did you get your information that the raid was about political snooping, or did you make it up? I thought it was about gathering information useful for terrorist activity, but we will have to see what, if any, court convictions result.

If it turns out that SF/IRA have been caught out in some criminal activity then they have been stupid beyond words. (As, alas, they have been many times.)

I came back from my last visit to Belfast just before the raid, pretty much convinced that the Belfast/GF Agreement was doomed. It was impossible to find a protestant who was not wholeheartedly opposed to it. It will be ironic if SF have handed the unionists a perfect excuse for walking away, which is what they were almost certainly going to do anyway.

In some parts of Belfast, particularly Short Strand and areas of north Belfast (the trouble goes as far out as Serpentine Road and the "white city" now) it's been a turbulent and unpleasant summer. There is no doubt that the IRA have been active, but equally no doubt that by far the greater amount of crime, including murder, has been from the loyalist side (though you would never think it, to hear the unionist politicians whining).

The GF agreement has only staggered on this far by dint of ridiculous devices, London and Dublin being desperate not to lose it. But it was supposed to have majority support in each of the two (nationalist and loyalist) communities. Now that it has no unionist support whatsoever, it should be laid to rest and government from Westminster restored. This would not reduce Dublin's role and voice. In fact in many ways Dublin would probably find Westminster easier to deal with than Stormont.

I see no prospect of the scenario that McGrath envisages of a return to the bad old days. The IRA has nothing like the active community support it once had, and which it would need to mount a major campaign, with so many catholic grievances now redressed, and visible progress being made towards fairer policing.

If trouble comes, it will come from the loyalists, but my guess is that here again, too many people are feeling comfortable and would have too much to lose from allowing a major campaign to get off the ground.

For my money the guy who continues to talk most sense is the one-time UVF hard-man David Ervine, who puts many long-term seasoned politicians on both sides to shame. If more people at the extremes had been willing to move their positions as far as he has, the whole imbroglio would have been sorted out by now.