The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #52072   Message #804261
Posted By: McGrath of Harlow
16-Oct-02 - 07:36 AM
Thread Name: BS: Bush, Iraq, and War: PART EIGHT
Subject: RE: BS: Bush, Iraq, and War: PART EIGHT
Whether they like Saddam or loathe Saddam won't make too much difference when the bombs and the missiles are coming in, especially given the preference shown in recent wars for the bombers to stay at very high altitudes.

I take it your view, Teribus, is that there probably won't be a war, but if there is one, it won't be as hard for the USA (and anyone allies) to win as some people think.

My view is that it is still possible there may not be a war, but that if it comes it will involve a lot more dead on both sides than Afghanistan did, and that the outcome is likely to be a military victory in Iraq, but with consequences elsewhere (and very likely inside Iraq as well), which will be very helpful to "Al Qaida". (And I put "Al Qaida" in quotes because I doubt very much if there is what is really involved is a centralised organisation with a normal command structure.)

In Afghanistan things were made a lot easier by the existence of the Northern Alliance in the field already, who did pretty well all the actual ground fighting. One thing to keep in mind is that among the most enthusiastic opponents of Saddam will be those who want an "Islamic" republic.