Kevin,

I think that America will go the UNSC and a compromise solution on a new resolution will be negotiated. This will put the weapons inspection teams back into Iraq under terms that will allow them to do their job. In this case I do not believe there will be a war.

Should the work of the inspection teams suffer interference, any action taken will be taken under the auspices of the United Nations, not by America acting unilaterally. Practically all the states that America needs for supporting a "go it alone" approach have been quite clear that they would only assist if backing from the UN exists. I have always contended that without that support any military intervention in Iraq would be extremely difficult if not impossible.

What ever happens in Iraq, it will only affect Al-Qaeda to the extent that one potential place of refuge will be denied them. I also believe that as a direct result of the bombing in Bali that another area potentially viewed as a safe haven is being closed down. They may continue to operate but at a very reduced level. In the 1970's extreme left wing factions such as Bader-Meinhoff, the Red Army Faction and November 17th were successfully countered in Europe. They totally collapsed with the disintegration of the former USSR. Al-Qaeda will suffer the same fate.

Should military intervention be necessary a great deal of thought must be put into what happens in Iraq. One suggestion has been a UN mandated administration. A phrase used to describe assistance to Afghanistan post-Taliban, was "hearts and minds", if properly conducted this is very effective but it takes a lot of time, money and effort. Unfortunately the Americans have never been very good at it because they have never fully understood it. For a UN administered Iraq to work, the UN must draw on moderate muslim member states to front the effort. The western democracies would have to supply financial and technical aid to rebuild the country - the same is true for Afghanistan, its early days there yet, but, if reports are true, progress is being made.