The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #53316 Message #821871
Posted By: Genie
08-Nov-02 - 07:21 PM
Thread Name: BS: Ok, I may be overly optomistic
Subject: RE: BS: Ok, I may be overly optomistic
What makes me think Bush's "experts" are wrong? Well, first of all, I don't assume that they are right or wrong based on whom they work for. On the other hand, the "experts" who disagree with them are many and just as highly credentialed.
As Nicole illustrated, it may not be as much a matter of their giving wrong answers as it is slanting the presentation by asking the wrong questions. (Remember: there are liars, damned liars, and then statisticians.)
Often, when the same questions are asked of experts from both camps, they will give similar answers.
E.g., "Are there more trees in our national forests than 100 years ago?" "Is there more lumber in terms of board feet...?" "Are there as many 200-year-old trees in America as there were 100 years ago?" "Will a "new-growth" tree in a commercially managed forest ever be allowed to become a 200-year-old tree?"
The big timber companies and the scientists who work for them tend to ask the first question and maybe the second. Scientists interested in old growth forests also ask the latter two questions.