Well this pool has done the trick
PBR just announced that war odds shifted from 60 40 to 40 60%less likely.
The problem is Turkey.

They are not rolling over and letting troops mass their automatically.
They are foot dragging as the pentagon says.
They are actually obeying their own constitution to vote on it.

Rumsfeld said today that "war is absolutely not imminent, why would you say that!".