I am sorry, I haven't been reading this thread, but I did think it probably the most appropriate to post this to, which I found encouaraging:

Speaking of Foreign Secretary (UK) Jack Straw, Asked to comment on a statement that the odds of war with Iraq had slipped from 60-40 to 40-60, Straw told British Broadcasting Corp. radio that "I think that is a reasonably accurate description."

Straw said nothing specific had happened to make him shift his estimate of the chances of war, but said he was trying quell the notion in many newspaper reports that war was unavoidable.

I hope he is right, that it has shifted!