AKS,

Yes normally the carrot is in front, if the donkey doesn't go for the carrot you use the stick.

With regard to the present situation there are, as always a number of ways to look at it:

The situation with Iraq at present could be viewed as the carrot being the easy option for Iraq to comply with the requirements laid down by the UNSC Resolutions. If they follow that course Saddam and the Ba'ath Party stay in power and sanctions will be lifted. The stick is the threat of military intervention that will remove Saddam from power, probably remove the Ba'ath Party from power, result in the enforced disarmament of Iraq after which sanctions will be lifted.

Of the two you would then have to evaluate what would be the most desireable from the American point of view. If Saddam stays then he still needs to be watched closely. If he is deposed then the US must realise that they will be there for a very long time (Remember the US only got involved with the Iran-Iraq War because Saddam, who initiated the conflict, did not achieve his quick victory and was in danger of losing it. That could have led to the break up of Iraq which was not considered advantageous for the region in terms of American, French, British and Russian interests - so they all went to his assistance to ensure that he could disengage from that conflict with Iraq intact). Many of the same issues still apply so, if Saddam is deposed, Iraq must remain intact, some form of concensus democratic Iraqi government must be established and that government must be in the form of a secular Republic opposed to supporting terrorist groups elsewhere.

Taking a wider view of the region as a whole. The carrot is the prospect of implimenting a viable peace process with regard to the Israelis and the Palestinians. At present there is no prospect of that as long as there are non-frontline states such as Iraq and Iran funding Palestinian terrorist groups. If Iraq is forced to comply with UNSC Resolutions then similar pressure can be brought to bear on Israel to do the same. Only this time it will be America insisting that Israel complies, and the pressure that America can bring to bear in this instance would be extremely hard to resist, that's the stick.

It has to be done in that order because if done the other way round Israel would feel as though it was throwing away it's sovereign right to defend itself and that is one thing the Israelis will never ever do. Sharon got re-elected purely on the security issue, if attacks stop Sharon will negotiate, of that I have no doubt. The only trouble is, had the Palestinian elections gone ahead, Hammas would have won in a landslide. Hammas does not recognise the right of Israel to exist and seeks the total destruction of the state of Israel. It can only adhere to that view for as long as states like Iraq and Iran support them, therefore something has to be done to cause that support to be withdrawn.