I think misophist is right about individuals. There are public roles to be filled, and someone else is going to fill them.

So if Tony Blair had stuck to music, as I suggested, I think it would have made remarkably little difference, musically or politically. Maybe he'd be lobbying for the Licensing Bill to be amended so that he could keep playing in pubs.

On the other hand if the French had come out top in America - if a sentry had noticed Wolfe's men climbing up the Heights of Abraham in time, for example, and History had wound on in a different track from then on - it's possible to imagine a lot of musical changes. For example, consider the difference between the culture of New Orleans, and its musical legacy, compared to the rest of the Deep South.

I think Woody Guthrie would have been the first person to say that if he hadn't been there someone else would. At least that would have likely applied if he hadn't been there in the first place. However if he had kept his health and strength, I just wonder whether we'd have ever heard of Bob Dylan except maybe as one among a whole host of singers.

In the same way, if Lennon hadn't ever been there, there'd have been a Lennon figure I suspect. If he hadn't been shot that would have made rather more difference, because he hadn't finished.

On the other hand if Elvis Presley hadn't died when he did I think it would have made remarkably little difference to anyone except the casino owners in Las Vegas.