Gut feeling... it's a fake. It's too conveniently timed to resurrect public sympathy in America for a previous cause, and the actual content is irrelevant for that purpose. It's also possible that bin Laden is being set up for a "terrorist" attack that will conveniently happen or be "prevented" right before the bombing starts. I think it is also wrong to assume that everyone in the west wants Iraq to surrender peacefully.

However, if it is a fake, it may not be a CIA/US fake, although that's the most likely culprit. There are other characters at work.

But it may be 100% real, too, and we are unlikely to ever find out for sure. I have a hunch historians will be arguing over the authenticity of these various bin Laden tapes for decades to come; the only proof that may solve the mystery may be declassification of government documents that blow the lid of the mystery, which happens from time to time.