We can never tell what would have happened if the Bush administration hadn't insisted on going to war at this time. It seems clear to me that there was a real possibility of pushing ahead to a situation where we could be pretty certain that Saddam Hussein had no usable weapons of mass destruction, and in which his domestic position would have been weakened to a state where it could crumble.

It is very hard to imagine an outcome now which will not mean terrible results, both within Iraq and elsewhere. Either there is a horrendous battle for Baghdad, with enormnous casualties, especially among civilians (which for me is the main thing), or a siege with the same effect, but drawn out. And Troll's scenario could very likely turn out accurate, with the worst of all worlds.

And elsewhere the likelihood of major terrorist attacks is now far greater than it ever could have been otherwise. (I see President Mubarak of Egypt has just predicted that it will produce "One jundred Bin Ladens" - and that is not something he wants to see happen.)

This has been an enormous and irresponsible gamble. We can hope that somehow the gamble comes off, but the chances of that happening do not seem at all good.