Kevin, above all else, Saddam is a past master at the art of survival so, yes, I do believe that he could be making those kinds of calculations. Whether he would be right or wrong would, of course, remain to be seen, but there is nothing wrong with the theory.
Consider, all his old henchmen would back him since his restoration to power would carry them along with it. His tribe is strong and tribal loyalty runs deep in that culture. He would not need tanks and planes to control the country at first, just ruthless followers and he seems to have those in plenty. When he did need planes and tanks, I'm sure that there are countries who would be willing to sell to him in return for oil contracts worth billions of dollars.
And so forth. A little far-fetched?
Maybe.
Are you willing to bet the farm?

troll