There are penalties for taking shortcuts but not under these circumstances. It has been announced (undisputed by other teams) within minutes after the race had been finished that there would be no penalty for Armstrong.

Armstrong looks less dominant than the last years. I still think he's going to make it (more from a lack of convincing opposition), but during the last years he could easily distance Beloki each time he wanted. And this time he looked rather glad he could follow Beloki on the Alpe d'Huez stage. The last years after half of the race there usually was only one cyclist within ten minutes of Armstrong. This year, after half of the race, 25 cyclists are within 10 minutes of Armstrong. That makes his task of controlling the peloton much more difficult.

Beloki looked impressively strong and determined this year. It is a pity he had to go out. Nonetheless, I see no cyclists to take the Tour from Lance easily. Vino is in the form of his life and slightly better than Armstrong in the mountain stages, but he is not good enough in the two contre-le-montres<(i> to come. Vino can make it among the first ten or even six in these stages, but that still means a loss of about two minutes on Armstrong at least. Ullrich could beat Armstrong on a perfect day in the contre-le-montres but is not strong enough in the mountains. Mayo has not the will to win. Have you seen how he did not fight til the end on the Alpe d'Huez stage but enjoy the victory and let seconds slip away? He'll be happy to win one more stage in the Pyrenees. He hasn't the stamina to win the whole event.

Anyway, the fall of Beloki has shown how small the path to victory can be. A fall can change anything quickly. A jours sans of Armstrong also could change everything. The last times Armstrong was so dominant that he could win even with a jours sans. I remember a year he had one and still won easily against Ullrich. This year, a day where he'll show weakness would mean the end of his hopes.

Wolfgang