BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 18 Nov 02 - 04:11 AM

O.K., Nicole, I see now that I did misinterpret your post to Teribus when I thought it showed that you didn't understand his argument.

In most of my Mudcat posts I deal with arguments and not with positions which sometimes may make it difficult for others to read my intentions. When I see what I consider a wrong argument I stand against it whether it is put forward by someone whose position I may share or not. I see that many people think that when I attack an argument I try to attack the entire position. This may be true for most people, it isn't for me.

Q is very close to my general position on this topic (as I read the post). I'm fairly convinced that what we do or don't doesn't really matter compared to the changes in earth history. However, I think we should behave as if it would matter for two reasons.
(1) To err on the side of inaction if our action matters is by far the worse error compared to acting when no action would be fine too.
(2) Taking actions (consuming less energy etc.), even if it later should turn out that it doesn't really influence global temperature as much as many think, has so many benefical side effects (to energy crisis, pollution, etc.) that the side effects by themselves alone warratn such actions.

Now, back to the level of arguments. Whereas the impact of Greenland ice melting on sea level rise (some meters) is usually underestimated the effect of thermal expansion is usually overestimated. It's effect is more difficult to estimated than that of ice melting. The estimates I have read are usually several centimeters and even in high estimates below 10 cm.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: Teribus
Date: 15 Nov 02 - 08:47 AM

Now looking for propoerty further up the mountain.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: Jim Krause
Date: 15 Nov 02 - 12:34 AM

Eh-yuh, but theah might not be enny oil to ship from theah to heah by then. 'Twon't do much good th' way I see it.
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: NicoleC
Date: 14 Nov 02 - 05:21 PM

You're right, Q. There's ample evidence to indicate that these kinds of events are natural. Some species can adapt, some do not. The current trend of warming may or may not be entirely man-generated. However, the evidence that we are hastening the process is compelling -- and by hastening the process, we aren't giving species' the chance they need to adapt. Cold-weather trees to move to higher elevations. Bird migratory paths to shift. Fish to find new sources of plankton and spawning grounds. We DO have options to minimize our impact on the process.

Being at the top of the food chain isn't all it's cracked up to be -- predators are most vunerable to ecological changes. Our technology can protect us somewhat in the event of a massive change, but it won't save us all.

I couldn't agree more -- we know that we are polluting our planet and causing health damage and extinctions. It doesn't matter if global warming is natural or partially natural or all our fault. We can and do have viable alternatives that would make the world a nicer place to live instead of metaphorically pooping in our diapers.

Uh... less caffiene tomorrow morning?

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: GUEST,Q
Date: 14 Nov 02 - 05:06 PM

A retired geologist, i would like to put in my 1 1/2 cents worth. It is not necessary to melt the entire continental ice caps to cause problems. Sit on the levee in New Orleans- you are above the city level, and the water line on the ships on the river is above land level. A rise of 5 meters would cause severe problems. How would you fence the water out? Cities like Venice would be lost. Re-building New York's sealevel towers and dockyards would cost billions. Parlay that around the world.
Nicole C, thanks for talking facts.
Global temperature changes have recurred many times in the geological past. We wern't there with our massive coastal construction and population.

Now to the crux- I don't think we can do much about it. Shifts in climate are a part of our planet's history. What is important is our health, and the globe's health. Insuring clean air and water and unpolluted land is to the benefit of us all. So far, we are doing a good job of fouling our nest.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: GUEST
Date: 14 Nov 02 - 04:16 PM

Got yer ol' garter snapped dint ya Wolfgang!

Way to go NicoleC! Ol wolffie babie ain't nowhers near the physicist he thinks he is.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 14 Nov 02 - 03:56 PM

The point is, the answers to these questions really matter.

The scientists are largely guessing, and their guesses vary widely, though some guesses have much more going for them than others. What seems to be happening is that some of the most powerful people on the planet - especially those in power in the USA, which is the one that really matters - are using those differences as a reason for putting it all on the back burner.

Finding out the answers as to which are the most probably scenarios, and what can be done to minimise disastrous results is desperately important.

The parallels with what happened with the tobacco companies for decades is frightening - "Scientists aren't all agreed, so we should carry on encouraging people to smoke until it's been proved it kills, and we shouldn't go frightening them about things that may never happen." And you can always find some scientist to argue any case, it seems, the same way you can find a lawyer. The difference being that lawyers have a duty to do that, whereas the duty of scientists should lie elsewhere.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: GUEST,Willie-O
Date: 14 Nov 02 - 03:39 PM

I don't think there are any reliable predictions that the entire Greenland ice sheet, or much worse, the entire Antarctica ice field, are going to melt. But here's a reference to the math. (Easily accessible reading) which states that Greenland melting would account for a 6.5 metre rise, and Antarctica melting would cause a 73 metre rise, in worldwide sea level.

I remember the predictions about the coming new ice age too. But unlike with those, global warming is apparent all around us in the past eight years or so.

W-O

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: Schantieman
Date: 14 Nov 02 - 03:00 PM

I once sat in a train opposite a professor of something-or-other-to-do-with-this from McGill Univ. He said that he asked his first year students to calculate how much sea level would rise if just Greenland's ice all melted. I guessed a metre ot two. He said ten metres!

That would put much of Liverpool (except the hill with the cathedrals on it - did they know something?) and all of south Lancashire underwater, let alone vast tracts of East Anglia & the Fens.

Bangladesh. Where they're less able to cope with it than we are.

I can't help thinking (not having done the calculations, though) that expansion of the upper (thermally less stable) layer of the oceans would have a bigger effect.

Steve

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: NicoleC
Date: 14 Nov 02 - 01:35 PM

I appreciate your concern, Wolfgang, but I am aware of the physics of the issue. It is incorrect to think of the northern polar cap as simply a big floating ice cube -- and therefore not a threat -- when sea level changes are compounded by many other issues. Nor is ice just "ice."

The sea level can rise for multiple reasons, among them:
1) Antarctic ice sheet melt
2) Greenland ice sheet melt
3) warmer water temperatures cause water to expand, also called thermal expansion
4) glacial melt

Because of new information about how humidity and temperature affect polar precipitation, it is now believed that the sea level will not rise as dramatically as previously thought, but the sea level has already raised measurably. (Scientists seem to go back and forth on this issue of "how much"; I doubt if this is the final word.)

However, as mentioned earlier, current changes and climatic changes are also important issues, as are erosion problems and inundation of low-lying areas. Coastlines will be dramatically revised, not just because the sea level goes up, but because of the way the ocean interacts with coastline. But when you are talking about a projected sea level rise of 5-11 feet, most of the continents are not greatly in danger, but many islands are. At most risk are low-lying islands, which started this discussion.

If you live on the east coast of the US, the EPA's latest study includes maps --
Maps of Lands Vunerable to Sea Level Rise

(This is a pretty big PDF file.)

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 14 Nov 02 - 12:41 PM

Nicole,

it looks as if you have completely misunderstood a part of the physics involved. Even if a very large floating chunk of ice, as large as the Arctic polar cap melts, the sea level doesn't really change. You can try that with a drink and a bit of ice.

Only if the ice is supported by land, as McGrath has alluded to, its melting can rise the sea level. So the melting of the Antarctic polar cap or the becoming green again of Greenland would have a large influence.

It wasn't sure whether the plural 's' in the 'caps' in your response to Teribus was a cleverly hidden hint that he should also look at the other pole as McGrath's interpretation was or whether you did not understand Teribus' point at all. I now think you didn't understand his point.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: NicoleC
Date: 14 Nov 02 - 12:16 PM

Not really wrong, per se. Just in response to:

"Don't know why living on a low lying island would matter that much, the sea level would hardly rise as practically the entire Arctic Icecap floats"

It's just that ice caps don't float if they melt. We don't have to wait for the whole cap to melt for the melting action to raise sea levels.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 14 Nov 02 - 07:33 AM

Thanks, but I did notice the 's'. I'm still curious though what Nicole found wrong in Teribus' post. If it just was that he had failed to mention the South pole as well she could have said it somewhat clearer than by that small 's'.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 14 Nov 02 - 05:56 AM

Well, Nicole said ice caps in the plural. Even if much of the North Polar icecap is floating - and much of it is on land - most of the Antarctic is on land. And the evidence seems to be thta bith are under threat.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 14 Nov 02 - 05:42 AM

Nicole,

I still completely fail to see what you thought was wrong in Teribus' post from 12 Nov 02 - 10:35 AM.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: GUEST,Taliesn
Date: 13 Nov 02 - 10:28 AM

One item not yet discussed here is another factor at play leading to a vicious circle acceleration of a natural global change; namely the shifting of the magnetic poles which has happened a few times already and it's migrations have been mapped by several means including studying the reversal of magnetic positionings of core samples in ancient lava. ( Magnetically reaction metals being fliud enough to react when in molten form ; Iceland being on of the more active natural laboratories )

So , rather than a permnent total global warming it's more a case of the globe having already begun its axial shift and , as a result , polar ice is melting in one place and is supposed to re-crystalize elsewhere.

What global warming is doing is preventing the balance of re-freezing and exacerbates whatever nature's reaction to this imbalance. All depends upon what is the core cause of this periodic axis shift. Some theorize it is caused by the weight of the polar ice caps progressivel throwing the Earth's rotation off until it reaches that event horizon line. Others posit that the periodic planetary allignments of critical mass gravitation ( Yeah ,the old "Jupiter Effect" which already happened sometime in the 80's I think ) which triggers enough of a establizing wobble that steadily grows until balance corrected.

Oh ,and the best evidence about the nature of time frame in which a polar shift occurs comes from the discovery on ancient
Mastadons ( Wooly Mammoths ) found frozen in the Russian /Central Asian Tundra with undigested prehistoric flowers still in their stomachs . For a group of animals , already adapted for cold weather , to be frozen before digesting some still fresh Sprng flowers suggests how fast it happens; ie well within a 12 hour period.

So make sure you have plenty of film or DVtape in the camera, folks, this could be quite a ride. ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: Teribus
Date: 13 Nov 02 - 10:02 AM

Thanks NicoleC - am now looking for property up a mountain somewhere.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: greg stephens
Date: 13 Nov 02 - 08:08 AM

Just had a browse around, and I see that a foot rise in sea-level will expose washington to sea flooding.not as bad as London, which is vlnerable to a few inches, but enough to concentrate the mind(if only our leaders had them).

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: Midchuck
Date: 13 Nov 02 - 07:22 AM

Well, I don't know of any falls or rapids on the lower Potomac, either. I think DC would be in trouble, too, if mean sea level went up more than a few inches. I know New York City would be, in any event, and that's where all the money is.

P.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 13 Nov 02 - 05:57 AM

Don't forget that London is not all that safe despite the Thames Barrier

Fortunately. That's maybe one reason worries about global warming aren't dismissed quite so frivolously over here as they are in the White House.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: Bert
Date: 13 Nov 02 - 01:01 AM

...It's a real shame that the capital of the United States isn't on a low lying Pacific Island...

Hey McGrath! Behave;-) Don't forget that London is not all that safe despite the Thames Barrier.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: GUEST
Date: 12 Nov 02 - 10:21 PM

We have not been studying climate long enough to be so sure of these predictions. In the 70's they were predicting another ice age.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: NicoleC
Date: 12 Nov 02 - 12:40 PM

Teribus, the low lying islands are in danger because the polar caps themselves are melting.

One scenario that gets very little press is a large methane release. The oceans store large amounts of frozen methane hydrate at the bottom. A slight increase in temperature can trigger the methane to suddenly melt into gas. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas. A releatively small release -- only requiring a couple of degrees warmer -- could raise temperatures enough to trigger a much larger release... and so on.

In the period of global warming 55 million years ago, a large amount of methane was released from the oceans during tectonic shifts, and the methane caused the earth's temperature to rise 13 degrees. The effects lasted 100,000 years. In biological terms, 13 degrees is a catastrophe, one which humans are even unlikely to survive except in small numbers, because it would cause massive disruption in the food chain.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 12 Nov 02 - 11:56 AM

Yes, there is a lot of speculation and lots of contradictory guesses -and thta in itself is a reflection of the way that this is all seen as a matter of peripheral interest by the people with power and wealth.

That's why they need to live somewhere where they'd have a personal incentive to have as their top priority the task of finding out the truth about these matters, whatever the truth may be, and acting accordingly.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: Midchuck
Date: 12 Nov 02 - 11:28 AM

One of the theories that a lot of people are arguing is that global warming may "turn off" the Gulf Stream entirely. If this happens, eastern North America, western Europe, and especially the British Isles, would get a lot colder, quite quickly, global warming or no global warming.

Another theory is that there'll be a lot more snow in northern latitudes as a result of the increased evaporation from the open water where the arctic ice used to be. Maybe more each winter than can melt in the following summmer. Which is how an ice age starts.

When Robert Frost (that's appropriate) spoke of not knowing whether the world would end in fire or in ice, I used to think he was just being, like, a poet.

Peter.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: Teribus
Date: 12 Nov 02 - 10:35 AM

Don't know why living on a low lying island would matter that much, the sea level would hardly rise as practically the entire Arctic Icecap floats. One thing that would be very significant is the deflection of the Gulf Stream.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: IanC
Date: 12 Nov 02 - 10:20 AM

Kevin

I'm presuming you mean navel. As far as I know, Pres. Bush's Naval has already got plenty of water!

;-)

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 12 Nov 02 - 10:02 AM

Exactly Pooka - once the water reached George Bush's naval I'm sure he'd take it all a lot more seriously, and it'd all get sorted pretty sharpish.

There'd probably be a "War on Climatic Terrorism" and all polluters would be seem as hostile elements to be effectively dealt with.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: Peter T.
Date: 10 Nov 02 - 08:17 PM

Their current main weapon of mass destruction is the SUV (I suspect it is built in Canada, part of the military-industrial-transportation-media-burger complex).

yours, Peter T.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: Mr Happy
Date: 10 Nov 02 - 07:56 PM

could canada ask usa to remove their weapons of mass distraction?

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: The Pooka
Date: 10 Nov 02 - 07:54 PM

Why Mr. McGrath! An' is that yerself today!! Doesn't sound like your usual temperate-zoned commentary. Now, how would our own Dr Mark Cohen feel if his Pacific island State had to host Congress while worrying that A Rising Tide Swamps All Ships? // But yes, of course I see; you're not wishing for our inundation, merely our awakening to the truth via our usual pursuit of unenlightened self-interest. OK, point well taken. (For a minute there I feared some low-life Guest had hacked the 'Cat and was posting in your name from some low-lying North Atlantic Isles. :) // The District of Columbia does perch upon the banks of the grand Potomac River, very near to the broad Chesapeake Bay and the mighty ocean beyond. In other words, they *are* in the Lowlands Low & I'm guessing they'll go under right quick when the Arctic swells roll in.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: GUEST,Q
Date: 10 Nov 02 - 07:40 PM

The passage has been traversed with the use of an icebreaker. Apparently submarines use it. Spillage and bilge will be tragic for the wildlife of the region if it is opened up.
I doubt that Canada can keep it from being "international water."

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 10 Nov 02 - 07:19 PM

It's a real shame that the capital of the United States isn't on a low lying Pacific Island.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: Peter K (Fionn)
Date: 10 Nov 02 - 06:27 PM

As I said in another thread, if all the Alaskan/Canadian permafrost melts, the effect will be to destabilise the whole north American continent. Haven't got time to look up references now, but various universities including Fairbanks are on to it, and I believe that the US governmental agency dealing with climate change is also concerned about the risk. But not, so far, the politicians, none of them being elected for more than a few years at a time.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: The Pooka
Date: 10 Nov 02 - 03:59 PM

Well, apparently they're not "open sea" quite YET. "There is room for some serious conflict here." Christ Almighty. We got more than enough conflict already. // Yes, certainly Canada is right to take it seriously & so should we all.

Subject: RE: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: Peter T.
Date: 10 Nov 02 - 03:47 PM

This is taken very seriously by the Canadian government, which believes those waters to be Canadian territory, while the American government considers them to be open sea. There is room for some serious conflict here. The prospect of oil tanker routes through the North, complete with oil spills in those sensitive waters, is depressing.


It is worth pointing out that this is a complete disaster for a number of arctic species, like the polar bear; the thawing of the permafrost is already causing problems.


yours, Peter T.

Subject: BS: Climate Warming: Northwest Passage?
From: The Pooka
Date: 10 Nov 02 - 03:38 PM

Ah, for just one time I would take the Northwest Passage
To find the hand of Franklin reaching for the Beaufort Sea;
Tracing one warm line through a land so wild and savage
And make a Northwest Passage to the sea.
-- Stan Rogers

Yes, but, is this altogether a *Good* thing? Are those of us living near the coastlines in for a nice little swim??


Northwest Passage May Become Nautical Reality
    Sunday, November 10, 2002   
   
BY ROBERT S. BOYD
KNIGHT RIDDER NEWS SERVICE

WASHINGTON -- A centuries-old dream of merchants and sailors, the fabled Northwest Passage across the ice-covered top of the world, may become open for commercial shipping as soon as five summers from now.

   Climate records show that the Arctic zone is warming much faster than mid-latitude and tropical regions of our planet, causing the ice to melt at an accelerating rate. Some experts say the polar ice cap could disappear during the peak months of summer well before the end of this century.

   The ice reportedly shrank more dramatically this year than at any time since detailed records have been kept.

In addition, there is a Northeast Passage along the upper rim of Siberia that is even more likely to open up than the Northwest Passage above Canada, according to a report released this year by the U.S. Arctic Research Commission, a federal agency.

In one of the few advantageous side effects of climate warming, a Northwest Passage threading 900 miles through a tangle of islands about 500 miles north of the Arctic Circle could be open to shipping for one or two months a year five to 10 years from now.

The northwestern path through the ice would cut the travel distance between Europe and Asia by 6,800 miles, compared with the standard route through the Panama Canal. For supertankers, which now must sail all the way around Cape Horn at the tip of South America, the trip would be shortened by 11,800 miles.

Space satellites have been measuring the shrinkage of polar ice since 1979. During that time, the area covered by ice in summer has shrunk about 10 percent.

   The extent of the ice apparently reached a record minimum for the month of August in August 2002, according to the latest data collected by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. A further reduction was expected for September, when the coverage of arctic ice usually is at its smallest.

According to Walsh, one climate model predicts the Arctic ice cap will vanish entirely during the summers by 2050. Four other models, however, say some ice will remain.