BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: Nerd
Date: 10 Sep 04 - 01:11 PM

For once we agree Larry K. I didn't know that about the demographics of the polls but it doesn't surprise me that much.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: GUEST,Larry K
Date: 10 Sep 04 - 10:13 AM

The only poll that matters is Nov 2.   The convention gave Bush a momentum boost- that is undeniable from every pollster.   Debating how much is a rediculous discussion because it will change before the thread is finished.

A word about polls.   Zogby published the demographics of the polls and I was stunned.    Time and Newsweek use a mix (approximate) of 38% republican, 33% democrat, and 29% independant.   Zogby used a mix of 38% democrat, 33% republican, and 29% independant.   The LA Times uses a mix of 40% democrat, 25% republican, and 35% independant.

NO wonder the polls are so different.   You get the results you want by determing which people you ask. What Bullshit.   The NY Times is famous for this- (see Dick Morris Book Off With their Heads-first chapter)

After reading the demographics published by Zogby, I was disgusted.   Therefore, debating how much bounce Bush got in the polls is less interesting than Survivor.   Conduct your own poll. Ask 9 of your friends who support your candiate and one who doesn't.   Chances are you will get the result you like.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: GUEST
Date: 10 Sep 04 - 06:38 AM

sorry I should have said SOME Americans.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: GUEST
Date: 10 Sep 04 - 06:00 AM

Bush isn't our president Doug, but his policies have affected more countries than your own. It is understandable that other nationalities are confused how Americans can seriously want this lunatic to remain in power. If all those that he DOES affect had the vote he would be long gone.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: GUEST,Argus
Date: 10 Sep 04 - 05:28 AM

UK poll on ITV, Will terrorism be defeated, 80% say no. Someone read this very slowly to Bush.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: Ron Davies
Date: 09 Sep 04 - 07:33 AM

Because my comment was aimed at any Bush supporter who wanted to take the bait.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: DougR
Date: 09 Sep 04 - 01:38 AM

Then why did you mention my name Ron?
DougR

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: Ron Davies
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 09:32 PM

Doug R-

Uh, please read my post of 7 Sep 11:22 PM carefully--(something I realize may be an effort for Bush supporters--thinking, or doing anything carefully is for wimps, right? After all your leader doesn't, so why should you? If the shoe fits.....)

You will see that I referred to the "11-point thread", started by "Martin Gibson"

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: Little Hawk
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 07:53 PM

Publicly reported polls are an absolutely ridiculous idea, and should not be aired at all on the media. They are an interference in the electoral process, because they manipulate people.

Not that it matters. Like Bobert said, Jefferson's experiment with actual democracy ended some time ago.

Your elections are about as legitimate and meaningful as the next episode of "Survivor", and are conducted at about the same level of stunned and negative consciousness. You are participating in an exercise as empty and phony as the old Communist elections were in the Soviet Union...because the Party, meaning the Redemocrapublicants, wins...and the people lose...every time.

No other result can occur, given how corporate money controls the process. That was not yet the case in Jefferson's time, so the system fairly much worked back then. It's archaic now, and it no longer can work to represent ordinary citizens. Jefferson foresaw the takeover of democracy by large financial/commercial interests. So did Lincoln. They foresaw it and warned against it, but they could not prevent it in a society where Money is King.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: DougR
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 05:52 PM

SRS: why is it so important to you what the world thinks about Bush? Is he THEIR president? I don't think so.

Bush has already said if the American people are threatened, he will ask no one's permission to defend them, or words to that effect. I assume you do not agree with him.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 03:49 PM

On the public radio program The World today they discussed a new poll taken among people who live in other nations. A staggering majority of them think Bush is doing the wrong thing. (And they made an excellent point about the Spanish elections and overthrow of the old government because people didn't like their govt sending troops to Iraq.) He'd lose by a landslide if the rest of the world was voting. One can always hope that more than a few folks in the U.S. care about what the rest of the world thinks--and don't continue to go along thinking that what we in the U.S. do won't come back to bite us.

SRS

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: Nerd
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 02:43 PM

Oops, I should have said "a few weeks ago you started about ten anti-Kerry threads in a row."

Sorry!

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: saulgoldie
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 02:42 PM

Guest, if'n you don't like it, then don't visit the threads and don't post there. It is that simple.

Anyway, it seems to me that there is enough (truthful/accurate) "dope" on Bush to sink him. It is Kerry's to lose. And darn it if he isn't doing his damndest to do that!

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: Nerd
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 02:38 PM

Ooh, GUEST, repeating exactly the same post in several threads simultaneously?

You're certainly doing your part to reduce the tedium around here!

Plus, let's not forget that a few weeks ago you started about ten anti-Kerry posts in a row. If I am kettle, you are pot.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: GUEST
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 02:32 PM

Nerd, what are you hoping to accomplish by acting as the Mudcat Kerry propagandist? Starting three simultaneous anti-Bush threads in a row?

Give it a rest, will you? It's getting REALLY tiresome for you to keep rehashing old news like this.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: DougR
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 02:20 PM

Ron Davis: er, ah, ...I didn't start this thread.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: M.Ted
Date: 08 Sep 04 - 02:16 PM

When the polls become the news, rather than the candidates, or the issues, we have a problem--

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: Ron Davies
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 11:22 PM

Now, of course, ---Doug R. and/or Martin---when the next poll comes out and shows Bush ahead by 6 points, you will start another thread entitled "Bush Fast Losing Support".
Right? After all, it will have at least as much validity as the "11 point" thread.

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: Bobert
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 11:14 PM

Well, Dougie, not to worry... What Bush can't win fir himself, Diebold can... and will.

Sorry folks but the US has become so corrupted that Jefferson's little expieriment is over.

Four more years of corruption.

And should Kerry carry the 53% that me and the Wes Ginny Slide Rule have figured it will take to beat the more corrupt Bushites then...

...like I said, four more years of corruption.

Polls can't change a broken system.

Bobert

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: WFDU - Ron Olesko
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 10:40 PM

You finally get it DougR!

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: DougR
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 10:39 PM

Rave on Nerd. November 2nd is the only poll that counts.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: Nerd
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 09:26 PM

Actually, Time and Newsweek called Kerry's four-point bounce a "baby bounce."

Then Bush's two-point bounce gets called a resounding success. Go figure!

Subject: BS: New Poll: Bush 'Bounce' Overblown
From: Nerd
Date: 07 Sep 04 - 08:28 PM

Over on another thread, people are erroneously claiming that Bush has received a "huge" eleven point bounce from his convention. This is not true no matter which polls you look at. But discounting the too-early Time and Newsweek polls, and looking instead at the new CNN poll, shows that these reports are distorted and overblown.

Even the "huge" bounce our conservative catters are talking about is about 5 points, not 11. The bounce is a change in level of support, not in your lead. If you go from 50-50 to 55-45, you get a ten point lead, but a five point bounce. This is important, because usually bounces after conventions, even for candidates who then lose, are over 10 points. So in historical context, a 5 point bounce is small.

Second, the 11 point polls are almost certainly off. Post-convention "bounce" has to be measured a few days after the convention, or it's meaningless. All the claims that Kerry got "no bounce" were based on polls done days after the convention ended. Then suddenly and suspiciously, two media conglomerates decide to do their polls DURING the Republican convention and report it as if it's the same as the post-Democratic convention polls. Hmmm...

So take the CNN poll. That records about a two-point bounce from their last estimate. About the same as Kerry's bounce. And less than any incumbent OR any Republican has ever received.

More from Salon:

The overblown Bush bounce

The lights inside Madison Square Garden had barely been shut off late last week when Time and Newsweek magazines both unveiled new polls declaring that George W. Bush had blazed ahead to a double-digit lead in the presidential race. While some Kerry supporters were surely deflated by the news, others were skeptical, noting that it would be nearly impossible to meaningfully assess the effect of the Republican Convention before the holiday weekend. (We won't bother speculating whether Time and Newsweek were simply rushing to weigh in first on the expected Bush bounce, or whether their Bush-friendly numbers had anything to do with the "liberal" mainstream media that conservatives keep griping about.)

Over at Donkey Rising, Ruy Teixeira says today's new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll is vindication for those who were more prepared to buy a Labor Day vacation package to Florida than they were Friday's headline poll numbers.

Teixeira notes that today's is the first poll that truly measures Bush's bounce -- a modest two-point one, among registered and likely voters alike -- and that the minor gain actually doesn't look so rosy for Bush when put into historical perspective.

"Bush's 2-point bounce from his convention (which, remember, is defined as the change in a candidate's level of support, not in margin) is the worst ever received by an incumbent president, regardless of party, and the worst ever received by a Republican candidate, whether incumbent or not. In 2000, Bush received an 8-point bounce. And even his hapless father received a 5-point bounce in 1992."

The new survey does reflect some favorable results for the Bush campaign: For example, the typically gloomy-faced Vice President Cheney is now viewed "slightly more positively" than before the convention, rising four points to 48 percent of voters who think of him "favorably." But the Gallup poll also shows that the Democratic gathering in Boston was more effective in persuading Americans:

"Forty-one percent of Americans say what they saw or read of the Republican convention makes them more likely to support Bush, while 38% say less likely. Americans were slightly more enthusiastic about the Democratic convention, as 44% said it made them more likely to vote for Kerry, and 30% said less likely. That 41% figure for the Republican convention is actually the lowest Gallup has measured dating back to the 1984 Democratic convention."

Apparently, Americans didn't much care for the dark musings of Sen. Zell Miller, or the rest of the GOP attacks leveled at Kerry from the GOP stage in Manhattan.

"Half the public thought the Republicans 'spent too much time criticizing the Democrats' at their convention, while 39% thought the Republicans 'achieved the right balance between criticizing the Democrats and saying positive things about themselves.'

"Similarly, 52% of Americans say the Republican Party has attacked John Kerry unfairly, compared with 48% who said this before the Republican convention."

The last time a GOP get-together was rated more negatively in tone than this one? Late August of 1992, according to Gallup, when 56 percent of surveyed voters were turned off by Republican rancor -- and the first incumbent President Bush was on his way to losing to Bill Clinton.