BS: American Presidential race 2024

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: The Sandman
Date: 30 Oct 24 - 04:53 AM

Texas is 1 33 on, to go to republicans,

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: gillymor
Date: 30 Oct 24 - 08:21 AM

Shocking!

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: The Sandman
Date: 30 Oct 24 - 01:32 PM

good luck, Stilly hope it goes well for you

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 30 Oct 24 - 03:00 PM

Here's something Kamala can add to her to-do list: Putting in Inspectors General in the Supreme Court and the Judiciary. This interesting interview is with former Inspector General Glenn A. Fine.

Those of you old enough to remember Watergate may remember that there were a lot of changes made to strengthen government agencies, and one was to put Inspectors General in each of the agencies. (Trump was dismantling that in his one-and-only-term, including firing Mr. Fine from his job as the acting-Inspector General in the Department of Defense. Four other IGs were also removed by Trump in his last year.) From the interview:

Glenn A. Fine [00:31:08] So inspectors general are supposed to be nonpartisan. They’re selected for their nonpartisan qualifications. That’s why typically when administrations change, the inspector general remains at large. Agencies are nominated by the president, confirmed by the Senate. But when the administration changed, it’s the IG who remains. Even though they’ve been appointed by the president. That is why, for example, I remained under President Clinton’s administration, President Bush’s administration, President Obama’s administration and the Justice Department. And also, when I was in defense in President Obama’s administration for President Trump’s administration. But that is a norm. It’s not by statute. The president does have the right to remove an inspector general. Up until President Trump, that had not happened to any significant extent. President Trump did remove five inspectors general. I was one of them in the last year of his administration, which sent a chill down among other inspectors general as well. So I make recommendations to help improve, protect and extend the role of inspectors general in the book, including giving them a term of office. If the FBI director has a term of office ten years, if the head of the Government Accountability Office has a term of office 15 years. I think inspectors general also ought to have a term of office. So I think it’s important to support inspectors general to give them adequate resources. But also, by the way, to make sure that we have a good answer to the question of who’s watching the watchdog. Inspectors general also need oversight as well. And I make recommendations about that in the book as well.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 30 Oct 24 - 03:40 PM

And here's a new group that should scare the bejesus out everyone: From the New York Times (I think I shared this as a gift so it should open) The Group at the Center of Trump’s Planning for a Second Term Is One You Haven’t Heard of
America First Policy Institute didn’t even exist four years ago. But it is poised to be more influential than Project 2025.

Late this summer, a prominent right-wing think tank invited conservatives from around the country to learn how to work in a second Donald J. Trump administration.

In a series of training sessions in Washington, former Trump officials shared strategies with attendees for combating leftist civil servants in the federal government and dealing with the mainstream media. Participants were sent home with a thick binder of materials for further study. One section’s title: “Tales From the Swamp: How Federal Bureaucrats Resisted President Trump.”

The classes could easily have been the work of Project 2025, the conservative policy blueprint and personnel project that was created by loyalists to Mr. Trump and that has been turned into a political cudgel by Democrats seeking to link its most radical prescriptions to the former president.

But the meetings had nothing to do with that enterprise or its principal backer, the Heritage Foundation. Instead, they were the work of the America First Policy Institute, a right-wing think tank that has, with little fanfare or scrutiny, installed itself as the Trump campaign’s primary partner in making concrete plans to wield power again.

Founded by three wealthy Texans in late 2020, the group, known as A.F.P.I., has quickly inserted itself into nearly every corner of Mr. Trump’s political machine, and is closer than any other outside player in his planning for a second term.

Mr. Trump chose one of its leaders, Linda McMahon, a former member of Mr. Trump’s cabinet and a longtime friend, as co-chair of his official transition team. Brooke Rollins, who also worked in the Trump administration and is currently the nonprofit’s chief executive, has been discussed as a candidate to be Mr. Trump’s chief of staff. The institute’s ranks are stocked with other former Trump administration officials who have spent the past several years planning for a return, and in recent weeks several have quietly moved over to work full time for the campaign’s transition team.

They've looked at how government worked in spite of Trump. And this group is learning from what it sees as the (conservative) Heritage Foundations "mistakes":

The Agenda
The institute’s policy book, titled “The America First Agenda,” is slimmer than the much-debated plans espoused in Project 2025’s 900-page “Mandate for Leadership.” Absent are attention-grabbing proposals such as banning pornography, prohibiting the mailing of abortion pills or ending the Justice Department’s status as an independent agency.

But its vision is no less Trumpist: It calls for halting federal funding for Planned Parenthood and for mandatory ultrasounds before abortions, including those carried out with medication. It seeks to make concealed weapons permits reciprocal in all 50 states, increase petroleum production, remove the United States from the Paris Agreement, impose work requirements on Medicaid recipients and establish legally only two genders.

It also goes significantly further than Project 2025 in one key area, calling for the elimination of nearly all civil service protections for federal workers by making them at-will employees — a strategy supporters believe will allow Mr. Trump and his aides to root out career staff members who they believe stood in his way in his first administration.

“Agencies should be free to remove employees for any nondiscriminatory reason, with no external appeals,” the institute’s policy book states.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Thompson
Date: 31 Oct 24 - 04:35 AM

I can't understand why Harris hasn't been focusing on the economy all along - but then… rich folks, never missed a meal…
Rather than rushing to say "me too" when Trump says he'll make tips tax-free, she should (sez I in my humble simplicity) have said "We'll make the humiliating necessity of grovelling for tips a thing of the past - we'll make waiting on tables properly paid so no one has need of tips".
And if she has a real focus on the economy, she could talk about the cost of running a car - and paying the enormous proportion of your wages that this costs. (That US government link shows the average cost per 15,000 miles as around $12,500.)
She could talk about how much Americans pay for health care (again, nearly $12,000 per year on average). She could talk about how badly Americans are served by this, with average life expectancy dropping in the US - a lot of this recent dramatic drop to be blamed on the Trump administration's disastrous response to the Covid pandemic and the drugs crisis.
She could talk about rising food prices - and how this is hitting poorer people disproportionally, because processed foods are rising in price far faster than good food cooked from scratch at home (cooking-from-scratch is easier for people who don't have to hold down two or three jobs to keep their household).
She could talk about wages for new jobs declining, and how the American culture of secrecy about salaries is partly to blame for this - in most countries, your salary is not a secret, and this makes it easier to see when you need a raise or a different job.
Just a start…

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Donuel
Date: 31 Oct 24 - 10:02 AM

The economy is in tip-top shape. Even Faux News admits the new president will inherit an extraordinary economy. Trump doesn't have a global financial collapse like Hitler. Trump can selectively punish any disloyal or Trump-critical corporation by using tariffs forcing them to raise prices while rewarding loyal companies with a waiver.
You may already see some organizations and companies run for cover like Bezos, Jamie Diamon, Soros...

To jump ahead a year into the future I see an octogenarian Trump plead out rather than bleed out in prison.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 31 Oct 24 - 10:06 AM

Again, as has probably been pointed out before, this is an extremely compressed campaign for Harris, without the luxury of a long windup to the main event. And to state the obvious, while she has talked a great deal about the economy and food prices and women's health and adequate housing for those people who need that information, mostly what we see here is the need that we all understand that Trump would change our way of life and destroy our system of government. The top priority is for people to understand how Trump will mangle the lives of anyone who isn't in the 1%.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Donuel
Date: 31 Oct 24 - 10:20 AM

You have to be obvious. Many people do not even see the subtext.
Finally, Democrats are using emotion over policy geekiness.
The Trump Hitler connection is late to be mainstreamed but at least even cowards admit it now.
Harris is short of given time to campaign but no matter,
sometimes time can shortchange you but sometimes it can also hide the pimples.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 31 Oct 24 - 12:55 PM

I see that your time away has not made you any less cryptic, Don. :-(

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Donuel
Date: 31 Oct 24 - 01:32 PM

Today Trump campaigned from a garbage truck. He needed two tries to get to his passenger seat and grumbled something about Joe.

Donald still really wants to run against Joe since Kamala represents youth, democracy and women, all things he is not and never will be.

Trump is about bigotry, fear, division, and tyranny, all breaded and fried in hate seed oil. His recipe sometimes substitutes rape seed oil.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Donuel
Date: 31 Oct 24 - 01:49 PM

Regarding polls, it is obvious to me Trump supporters contacted by phone are excited and willing to spew their opinion.

For those who are progressive or simply support our constitution, will not want to be bothered or risk ending up on an enemies list.

Ergo polls are skewed to the right with error.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 31 Oct 24 - 01:54 PM

Welcome back, Donuel.

You said, "Kamala represents youth, democracy and women, all things he is not and never will be" but you forgot to add joy to your list.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Donuel
Date: 31 Oct 24 - 02:27 PM

Joy is an election tactic just like Trump uses hate as a tactic.

All joy and no depression is a fiction I have never seen except in sitcoms. I seriously doubt Kamala is always that happy.

We have treatment for people who are    'more than happy' .

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 31 Oct 24 - 03:19 PM

Oh come on, Donuel. Her lovely smile is an antidote to Trump's doom and gloom and hate. It makes a nice change. LOL

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 31 Oct 24 - 11:18 PM

In Australia, our previous Prime Minister and his deputy have been key candidates for the Doom-&-Gloom Naysayers Society. Unfortunately, the deputy of that party is now the leader of the opposition and he spends all his time in Parliament being sour, negative and insulting and making no useful contributions to the parliamentary debate, in my opinion, and in many instances blocking some proposals which could have helped our country and our people. He seems to think that as he is the leader of the opposition he has to *oppose* everything proposed by the party in power.

I suspect that BoJo in the UK was just as bad and useless, and I know Trump belongs to that society as well.

As an antidote to the current attitudes of some politicians and people in power I would much rather see a smiling face, and hear positive statements and propositions, projecting positive future outcomes rather than dwelling on the negative all the time.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 01 Nov 24 - 06:35 AM

The Economist is endorsing Kamala Harris.

The article may require you to set up a login to read it but it is free and worth it. Very fair analysis, in my opinion, giving good and bad points for both candidates. Couple of salient points -

"...But voters claiming to be hard-headed are overlooking the tail risk of a Trump presidency. By making Mr Trump leader of the free world, Americans would be gambling with the economy, the rule of law and international peace. We cannot quantify the chance that something will go badly wrong: nobody can. But we believe voters who minimise it are deluding themselves."

And

"Next to Mr Trump, Kamala Harris stands for stability. True, she is an underwhelming machine politician. She has struggled to tell voters what she wants to do with power. She seems indecisive and unsure. However, she has abandoned the Democrats’ most left-wing ideas and is campaigning near the centre, flanked by Liz Cheney and other Republican exiles."

Subject: Pithy remarks about American Presidential race
From: Donuel
Date: 01 Nov 24 - 09:45 AM

When a woman smiles, it seems more sincere than when a man is selling something with a smile. Think of the Mona Lisa. On the other hand, when Obama used emotion in his campaign, he won, but when others did not, they lost.

Trump described Liz Cheney in front of a firing squad. That is a desperate attempt for him to stay out of prison with more death to my enemies' decrees.

Regarding polls that try to adjust for the obvious bias, after 2 or more adjustments the poll is nonsensical. Remember the red wave.
People who give credence to bookies doing bets on our election is as idiotic as it sounds. If one bets it should be done for entertainment like any horse race and not an indicator of future results.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Thompson
Date: 01 Nov 24 - 10:56 AM

The house always wins. That's why you pay attention to betting odds. Of course, they may be wrong now and then…
The really scary thing is the effect that multiple tariffs and sanctions plus taking the rich out of the tax net would have on the US economy, and on the US's trading partners.
Putting tariffs on imports is liable to be responded to by those tariffed putting their own tariffs on their imports from the US - and so on. Every action will have an equal and opposite reaction.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 01 Nov 24 - 11:01 AM

Regarding your quote, the Economist seems to mistake good manners for "indecision," and she hasn't given up on many things, has simply chosen to highlight a set of the most popular topics in the time available. Probably just as well if they underestimate her. That comes within a whisker of "damning with faint praise." (No, I don't need yet another account to nag me to subscribe or try to send notifications, so I didn't join to read it all.)

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Rain Dog
Date: 01 Nov 24 - 02:56 PM

You certainly have an unusual view of BoJo, Helen.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Thompson
Date: 01 Nov 24 - 06:11 PM

Revenge of the childless cat ladies.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: meself
Date: 01 Nov 24 - 07:37 PM

Harris hasn't struck me as being particularly indecisive - unless that means she isn't making wild promises.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 02 Nov 24 - 03:07 AM

”I suspect that BoJo in the UK was just as bad and useless”

“ You certainly have an unusual view of BoJo, Helen.”

Helen’s opinion seems to me to be absolutely spot-on, apart from forgetting to include ‘lying crook’.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 02 Nov 24 - 03:16 AM

... and egocentric clown? LOL

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 02 Nov 24 - 03:21 AM

Ah yes, that too! :-)

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 02 Nov 24 - 03:50 AM

LOL

Ok, back to the topic!

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 02 Nov 24 - 10:15 AM

I does read better in context, Stilly, but I appreciate you not wanting yet another account. It can be a good read if ever you change your mind.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 02 Nov 24 - 10:15 AM

The Economist can be a good read that is - Not just the article!

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Donuel
Date: 02 Nov 24 - 03:13 PM

The Economist is very conservative.

Tucker Carlson could be diagnosed as schizoid, cozying up to General Flynn, or his wife and dogs attacked him in his sleep. Abuse victims often get revenge on abusers that way.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Mrrzy
Date: 02 Nov 24 - 03:36 PM

Is there a word for the day after the day after tomorrow? Overmorrowmorrow?

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Doug Chadwick
Date: 02 Nov 24 - 03:46 PM

Is there a word for the day after the day after tomorrow?

It depends on what day of the week today is. If today is Saturday, then the word is "Monday".
;-)

DC

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Thompson
Date: 02 Nov 24 - 03:49 PM

In Irish there is; tomorrow is amárach, the day after tomorrow is arú amárach; inné is yesterday, arú inné is the day before yesterday. Ou sont les neiges d'antan?
When will the election be called (in the sense of the winner announced)?

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Doug Chadwick
Date: 02 Nov 24 - 03:53 PM

NO IT'S NOT The word is "Tuesday".

I should have read it properly!

..... the day after the day after ...

Serves me right for trying to be a smartarse.

DC

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 02 Nov 24 - 04:20 PM

Ah Doug, I like a smartarse who admits he is a smartarse! LOL

And Donuel, that Tucker Carlson - I knew he was a fruitcake but this episode just tops off his career. I saw it on TV. Weird!

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 02 Nov 24 - 05:25 PM

The wait until we get there is nerve-wracking, whatever we call the day. It's the days after that will have lots of drama as states with different counting requirements go through the paces, all the while Trump will offer a boisterous performance declaring his victory and challenging anyone to defy his claim.

It isn't going to be pretty.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 02 Nov 24 - 05:54 PM

You all have our deepest sympathies for the nerve-wracking days ahead, and our hopes and prayers.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Thompson
Date: 02 Nov 24 - 06:28 PM

If the vote finishes on Tuesday (does it?) what about the electoral college votes?

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 02 Nov 24 - 08:16 PM

It won't finish on Tuesday. And each state has to canvas the vote and the governors confirm the electoral college votes. (You remember the term "fake electors?") But we should know within a day or two, though the battles in the courts are bound to take a while. The result should be the same (last time Trump tried the court route he lost 60 of 61 cases, and the one he won was meaningless.)

In Bush V. Gore, Gore won the popular vote, it came down to Florida and then the US Supreme Court. If that were to happen again, we're all screwed.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Helen
Date: 02 Nov 24 - 10:56 PM

Thousands join Women's March on Washington as US debates rights of women during presidential campaign

There are some very clever signs mentioned but the one which made me laugh is in the first photo: "We are not ovary acting", and in another photo, "We won't ignore the elephant in the womb" with an image of the GOP elephant logo.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Thompson
Date: 03 Nov 24 - 06:42 AM

Always thought Gore would have made a better president, calmer, more mediated, brighter.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 Nov 24 - 09:43 AM

Why are people saying thet will vote for Trump because the current administration (IE Harris) is not doing enough to stop the slaughter in Gaza? Do they not know that if Trump gets in, Netenyahu will have carte blance to do what he wants?

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 03 Nov 24 - 09:50 AM

That has been pointed out. As has the blunt fact that if you vote "third party" (whacko Stein or Kennedy) you're voting for Trump. They've all had that talk and will have to decide. The first thing Trump did when he was 45 was the dreadful "Muslim ban." Believe him when he tells you who he is.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 03 Nov 24 - 11:40 AM

That thought had occurred to me too, Dave. There seem to be a substantial number of US voters whose ears aren’t connected to their grey-matter.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: MaJoC the Filk
Date: 03 Nov 24 - 12:01 PM

> Ergo polls are skewed to the right with error.

That's not necessarily the case. In the UK, there's a phenomenon known to pollsters as "shy tories": people who are too ashamed to admit to a pollster that they'll vote for the Nasty Party, let alone why. Then there's the case of my late mother-in-law, who would gleefully say "Of course I'll vote for you" to private pollsters from all parties, partly out of mischief (a party machine can always do with a bit of grit in its gears), but mainly to get them off her doorstep.

There's plenty of causes of slack in the figures, and they're somewhere on the border between "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns". All poll figures are guesstimates at best, and sometimes outright wishful thinking. Ach, all we can say with certainty is that all of life is six to five against.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Donuel
Date: 03 Nov 24 - 12:36 PM

Make America sane again.

Is sanity the minority when lies are mankind's greatest weapon?

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Donuel
Date: 03 Nov 24 - 01:04 PM

Tuesday night take 2 Fukital tablets and go to bed.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 03 Nov 24 - 01:18 PM

I thought I shared this before. Why the Right Thinks Trump Is Running Away With the Race
Skewed polls and anonymous betting markets are building up Republicans’ expectations. Donald Trump could use that to challenge the result.

This should be readable by all - it's an article shared from my subscription. This is the start of it:

The torrent of polls began arriving just a few weeks ago, one after the other, most showing a victory for Donald J. Trump.

They stood out amid the hundreds of others indicating a dead heat in the presidential election. But they had something in common: They were commissioned by right-leaning groups with a vested interest in promoting Republican strength.

These surveys have had marginal, if any, impact on polling averages, which either do not include the partisan polls or give them little weight. Yet some argue that the real purpose of partisan polls, along with other expectation-setting metrics such as political betting markets, is directed at a different goal entirely: building a narrative of unstoppable momentum for Mr. Trump.

The partisan polls appear focused on lifting Republican enthusiasm before the election and — perhaps more important — cementing the idea that the only way Mr. Trump can lose to Vice President Kamala Harris is if the election is rigged. Polls promising a Republican victory, the theory runs, could be held up as evidence of cheating if that victory does not come to pass.

“Republicans are clearly strategically putting polling into the information environment to try to create perceptions that Trump is stronger,” said Joshua Dyck, who directs the Center for Public Opinion at the University of Massachusetts at Lowell. “Their incentive is not necessarily to get the answer right.” [emphasis mine]

Last week, the right-wing influencer Ian Miles Cheong shared a survey with his 1.1 million followers on X. The forecast from a new polling company suggested, without sharing its methodology, that the former president would take 74.3 percent of the national vote — a landslide unprecedented in American history.

“Trump is absolutely going to win,” Mr. Cheong wrote. “The data shows it.”

In the final stretch of the campaign in 2020, Republican-aligned pollsters released 15 presidential election polls of swing states. In the same period this year, they have released 37, according to a New York Times analysis of data from the polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight. Of those 37, all but seven had Mr. Trump in the lead.

That increase comes as the volume of nonpartisan polls — such as those commissioned by major news organizations — have dropped significantly, though they still make up a majority of the polls released. Of the nonpartisan surveys released in the final weeks of this year’s campaign, roughly half showed a lead for Mr. Trump.

And that is counting only polls that are explicitly designated as politically aligned by FiveThirtyEight, which sets a high bar for defining partisan polls. There have been additional polls conducted by firms with a history of favoring Republicans or with a public record of pro-Republican rhetoric that have not been designated as partisan by any of the aggregators.

Other factors have also fueled the perception of Mr. Trump’s strength. Betting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi that allow people to place bets on election outcomes have seen a spike in Mr. Trump’s favor over the past month — one that does not track with the overall state of the race as captured by reputable polling firms.

That surge appears to have been pushed almost entirely by a very small number of high-value bets from just four accounts linked to a French national. Those accounts have collectively placed $30 million on a Trump victory this month. [emphasis mine]

Mr. Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, have nonetheless promoted the betting markets — although they are opaque, largely unregulated and not a scientific way to gauge public polls. Mr. Trump cited Polymarket in a recent speech, saying, “I don’t know what the hell it means, but it means we’re doing pretty well.”

A spokesperson for Polymarket declined to provide comment for this article.

Dick can ignore the bets. They're rigged.

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 Nov 24 - 04:52 PM

Yep. Thousands of people bet on the Turnip, he loses, the bookies make millions. It's one of the few times I really want the house to win :-)

Subject: RE: BS: American Presidential race 2024
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 Nov 24 - 04:53 PM

...and

800!