BS: Crash of U.S. Economy

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Barry Finn
Date: 12 Sep 07 - 03:40 AM

Donel, I think you are on track with the exception, don't try to seperate an American from their toys, that really pisses them off. I do believe that some day maybe sooner rather than later many of the American home owners will continue to own their homes but not the land it sits on. They'll be renting that property that once was theirs from the state. They'll also be considered lucky to get away with that & their 2 front teeth.

Barry

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Metchosin
Date: 12 Sep 07 - 02:48 AM

Midchuck, why assume that others are not reading them?

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Donuel
Date: 12 Sep 07 - 12:02 AM

People who make over a billion or even a measely million dollars a year will be bailed out in our current system.

However if you make only $50,000 and have to declare bankruptcy the laws have been changed to be sure that you will not be bailed out.

This new form of super capitalism with monopolies at the helm and regulation free corporatism and the destruction of goverment itself and its agencies which used to have oversight is headed for a crash.

The average American will rebel and will do so in the manner of slave revolt.

The corrupt judicial machinery, the media divide and conquer ideaology, new weapons and police tactics that the super wealthy have built to keep the slaves in check will be effective for a very brief time.

The arrogance of the ruling class knows no bounds and will will not cede any compromise that would deliver actual freedoms and economic liberty for all.


Soooo

When the Medici of today find their coporal bodies in peril and not just their multinational corporate profits, we will see some reform in goverment representation for the people and not just the 30,000 lobbyists who are now the only people (other than the military) to have access to the goverment.

Just as all war is now war against civilians the revolution will be a war against the actual families of men women and children in charge of 80% of all Wall Street banks and capital.

I think we all agree that the signers of the Declaration Independence were the terrorists against the Crown.

And I think what we have here in America is a bigger richer Crown.

THe best and brightest of course are recruited by the new Crown of the American ruling class and are sometimes seen on FOX network as a think tank expert who admits the dangers of the quaint US constitution is counter productive to Business and that more Patriot Acts are needed to destroy any threat to Multinational corporations.

That just leaves the rest of us mal adjusted malcontents to free the slaves of today.

Maybe the last straw will be the take over and total control of the Internet.

A revolution was normally put down with bullets and intentional famine. Maybe the next revolution will be put down with free Prozax and Beer. (remember Soma?)

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Midchuck
Date: 11 Sep 07 - 07:28 AM

When you see that a thread has devolved into a series of posts by two or three people, it should probably be closed. Let them go to PMs.

P.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Riginslinger
Date: 10 Sep 07 - 11:36 PM

Ebbie - I think I was trying to write extenuated. Sorry!

            Okay Ron. Hitler gets all the credit.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Ron Davies
Date: 10 Sep 07 - 10:23 PM

Actually, Rig, it's fairly well established that the only thing that finally brought the US out of the Depression was World War II. Maybe not the best model.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Ebbie
Date: 10 Sep 07 - 10:20 PM

"Extentuated"? What kind of word is that?

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Riginslinger
Date: 10 Sep 07 - 04:33 PM

Another way of saying it is: You had laissez-faire capitalism in the 1920's that lead to the crash of 1929, and by changing directions under Truman, then seeing things radically extentuated under Reagan, you have laissez-faire capitalism again now.

             It wouldn't surprise me if we saw another crash.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Riginslinger
Date: 10 Sep 07 - 01:50 PM

Ebbie - I was trying to address Ron's point about the crash of 1929, and how FDR brought the country out of the Great Depression. Things were moving along quite well until he died. If Wallace had still been VP, they would have followed a course more closely in alignment with what FDR intended. Truman changed directions and the country experienced a harsh recession in 1954.

             Carter was trying to make the country energy independant. The oil powers didn't like that, and they promoted Raygun. As a result, we had the worst recession in the early 1980's since the Great Depression of the 1930's.

               Some people make out very well in a failing economy. They just have to wait a little while to cash in.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Ebbie
Date: 10 Sep 07 - 01:34 PM

Riginslinger, I don't follow. In what way did the fact that Henry Wallace was no longer the VP when Roosevelt died affect the Crash of '29 and the ensuing Great Depression? We're talking 10 years and more past the crash. And things were well on the upward track during the Truman years.

"And the second took place when the oil powers in the Middle East determined that they needed to get rid of Carter because he was trying to make America independant of foreign energy"

? I'm not even going to address that thought.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Riginslinger
Date: 09 Sep 07 - 11:25 PM

Ron - Yes, I think the 1929 crash did do that, and things were steaming along pretty well, but two catastorphes happened. The first was, Henry Wallace was no longer the VP when Roosevelt died, and Harry Truman took us into the Cold War. And the second took place when the oil powers in the Middle East determined that they needed to get rid of Carter because he was trying to make America independant of foreign energy, so they saw to it that Ronald Raygun got elected.
                Eisenhower helped steer us back from the Truman fiasco. It's too bad he wasn't there to save us from Raygun. George W. Bush is a direct off-shoot of that bumbling idiot.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Ron Davies
Date: 09 Sep 07 - 03:12 PM

Rig--


There are certainly problems which don't appear close to solution. I've just read a prediction that the bad employment report Friday just about clinches a recession late this year or early next year. I'd definitely agree the market is overvalued--full of hot air.

But "a crash is the only way I can see that we can get things back on track" ? Do you think the 1929 crash did that? Maybe you'd like to define "crash".

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: GUEST,Jim Martin
Date: 09 Sep 07 - 09:16 AM

Roll on the day (it should be THIS day) we have green economics i.e. the only tax people pay is for polluting! Of course the fat cats in industry would never want to play ball because they are the biggest culprits.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Riginslinger
Date: 09 Sep 07 - 12:13 AM

Jim Martin - I'll offer another comment on this issue. In recent days, it's come to pass that both the chairman of the Federal Reserve and the president are desperately tring to come up with some way of bailing out their rich friends who have huge amounts of capital at risk in the US capital markets.

             When a similar thing happened with the Savings and Loans, the Bush Sr. was in charge, and Neil Bush got caught with his hand in the cookie jar, the solution was simple. The simply expanded FDIC insurance to accounts that weren't previously insured.

               This time it's tougher. They don't want to dirty their hands with the prospect of bailing out the little people, those folks who have mortgages they cannot pay, so they are stuck with finding a way to bail out the fat-cats while leaving ordinary wage earners holding the bag.

             They are making the case that the ordinary guy in the street who bought a house he couldn't afford was a "speculator." Their friends, on the other hand, who pushed the loans to the dirty unwashed, were not speculators, they were simply well capitalized business people who were simply trying to improve their bottom line by backing shaking loans that payed higher interest rates.

             Frankly, a crash is the only way I can see that we can get things back on track.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Riginslinger
Date: 01 Sep 07 - 09:17 AM

Foolestroupe - Yes, I see what you mean, but the concept of "local" could be extended to include the mixing of traditional securities.

             For instance, the sub-prime mortgage situation would probably have been confined to the fringe lenders and borrowers who were engaged in the practice. However, by allowing institutions to "bundle" all of the mortages into packages and then sell them as a whole, the few sub-prime loans contaminated the entire package.
             Now a number of institutional buyers are afraid to touch any part of it. It's like a virus, and it's contageous.

             I don't seen how the president's proposals do anything at all to fix the problem either. If somebody is drowning in debt, what are they going to do with a "tax break?"

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: The Fooles Troupe
Date: 31 Aug 07 - 09:41 PM

"sub-prime mortgage thing, ... is something that hasn't come up before. ... It's always something new and different that causes the economy to tank, so there's only so much that knowing history will help you. "

Ah, but the wise said at the beginning of this sub prime game that the bottom would fall out when there was a downturn... they got 'Chicken Littled' for their trouble...

I got this "10% theory" - if more than 10% of any part of the economy
is 'not local' then external events affect you badly. Of course the whole premise of 'modern economics' is to 'spread the risk' by externalising...

For instance if more than 10% of a country's economy is based on tourism, then anything that affects tourism will cause conniptions...


Of course our 'Guest of many names/Delusions' does have a valid point - it's "what you DON'T know that may hurt you"... :-)

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Riginslinger
Date: 31 Aug 07 - 07:14 AM

This sub-prime mortgage thing, along with the process of bundling loans, is something that hasn't come up before. It seems like it's always that way. It's always something new and different that causes the economy to tank, so there's only so much that knowing history will help you.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: GUEST,Mark Calendar
Date: 31 Aug 07 - 01:44 AM

Well, someone with 700 million dollars to spare just bet against the US economy. Somehow your reassurances just don't stack up favorably against that.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: DougR
Date: 31 Aug 07 - 01:23 AM

Oh Geeze, the sky is falling again! Run for the hills!

The US economy is in great shape.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: GUEST,Mark Calendar
Date: 31 Aug 07 - 01:18 AM

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=4669

That's a link to a bunch of yuppie stock traders discussing the onset of the next global depression.

The wars and rumors of wars stuff gets tiresome, but this story is legit. Someone bet $700+ million that the stock market is going to crash before Sept 21.

Same thing happened before 9/11. The #3 man at the CIA, Buzzy Krongard, used to work for Deutschebank/A.B. Brown (a German bank). That bank bought put options on United Airlines and American Airlines (the two airlines used in the 'attacks'). Didn't buy any other put options, and the ones they bought on those two broke all previous Wall Street records. A sure bet. So, where did they get their inside information? You know. I know. The world knows. Krongard should have been tried and executed, but he served a few more years, got a promotion, then was given a lavish retirement party.

The same situation has arisen again, but folks know what to look for now. These big bets that the market will go down are now called 'bin Laden bets' because only a traumatizing event can cause the financial plunge. So, if I know about these current transactions, and these beer-guzzling yuppies know about them, then you know DAMN well the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) knows about them. And if they'll kidnap and torture Jose Padilla for 'thinking' about making a dirty bomb, then I assume the people who made these bets are being tortured right now to find out what they know about an upcoming terrorist event. Right? No? Oh, because they have money? Well, then, if an 'event' occurs, don't forget this post when the Bush/Pelosi team poses as your savior. THEY are the ones behind the terrorism. If I had the skills to track these transactions, I wouldn't be surprised if they lead to the Carlisle Investment Group (whose members include the Bushes and the bin Ladens). The US govt has been hijacked by international gangsters, and it is just a matter of time until they wallop us again. And if they don't do it before Sept 21, they lose 700 million dollars.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: GUEST,petr
Date: 13 Aug 07 - 08:24 PM

Janie ..Im not so sure those in the US will fare better than the rest of the world.. (the US $ is worth 30% less than two years ago)
and even less if compared to the beginning of the Bush administration..
Remember this is a president that has added more to the debt than all the past US presidents combined!

They always thought that (supposedly Reagan proved) that deficits dont matter.. But they do. Sure you can pass on the costs to the rest of the world - which is what a superpower does when its currency is the default currency of trade.. (so when the dollar drops in value - all those nations that keep foreign reserves for trade- suffer too.

After the downturn of the dotcom bubble, the one hope of the US economy was the consumption economy and the housing boom - which was encouraged by low interest rates.. and in turn fed a construction boom, has finally burst.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: autolycus
Date: 12 Aug 07 - 06:23 AM

it's interesting that some subjects do seem to 'drop off the news'.

   Makes the protestations of journalists that 'all we do is report the news' sound hollow.


   Don, have to wheel it out again.

   "The one thing we learn from history is that we don't learn from history." Something like that was written nigh on 200 year ago.

   i've always like quotations because they give solid nuggets of truth in pill form. Tho' it'd be better if they were chewed on and digested, not just swallowed. That latter way, they're liable to go right thru without touching the sides.





       Ivor

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Don Firth
Date: 11 Aug 07 - 10:43 PM

I hope your right, Doug.

I think we learned a lot back in the Thirties. Let's just hope that we remember what we learned.

Don Firth

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: DougR
Date: 11 Aug 07 - 07:18 PM

I do read the news, Don, and I even listen to CNN sometimes. You don't need to remind me that the market is going through a down cycle. My modest portfolio lost $17,000 between the end of June and the last of July. The market goes thorugh cycles. This one is down, but everyone should remember that the past couple of years have been pretty darned good. We have to take the bad with the good!

It will come back.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: robomatic
Date: 11 Aug 07 - 05:20 PM

You CAN borrow your way out of debt...

They showed an example of it on "The Sopranos"

!

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Riginslinger
Date: 11 Aug 07 - 04:21 PM

I must have clicked on the wrong thing. The article I read had to do with American/Russian military strategy to counter Iran.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Peace
Date: 11 Aug 07 - 12:37 PM

Other than I don't know what the hell yer talking about, I agree.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Riginslinger
Date: 11 Aug 07 - 12:35 PM

"Actually, we all know more than we read in the papers."


                   Yeah, but that's all Will Rogers would admit to knowing.



                     Peace - I didn't think Russia had any interest in containing Iran. I still don't.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: autolycus
Date: 11 Aug 07 - 12:09 PM

Actually, we all know more than we read in the papers.

I'l let you do the work.






       Ivor

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Peace
Date: 11 Aug 07 - 11:24 AM

Have y'all noticed that news coverage of both Iraq and Afghanistan has dropped off considerably?

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Peace
Date: 11 Aug 07 - 11:20 AM

Thge internet. Same as this one:

"While a real world event occurred with the radar spotting of two Russian bombers, the Valiant Shield exercises happening off of Guam's coast had to go on. Just south of Guam three carrier strike groups - the USS John Stennis, the USS Nimitz and the USS Kittyhawk - are participating in Valiant Shield 2007."

Those folks are IN Guam.

Takes a few seconds to load.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Riginslinger
Date: 11 Aug 07 - 10:55 AM

Like the man said, "I only know what I read in the Newspapers."

                But where did this newspaper come from?

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Peace
Date: 11 Aug 07 - 05:46 AM

"How does one find out where they are? Surely they do not advertise their location(s) on a daily basis, do they?"

I just know what I read in the 'papers'.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Ron Davies
Date: 11 Aug 07 - 12:03 AM

But don't rely on the stock market to predict.   I've read the market has predicted 11 of the past 5 recessions.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Little Hawk
Date: 10 Aug 07 - 10:41 PM

The Liechtenstein economy crashed awhile back, but it made such a small sound that no one noticed.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Janie
Date: 10 Aug 07 - 10:34 PM

I ain't a'followin' ya' Peace. Can you explain a bit more?

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Sorcha
Date: 10 Aug 07 - 10:29 PM

My post got eaten. Oh well.

Read the Firefox books, it's been done before and so it can be again.
Learn to barter.
Stop being so finicky about your food and eat what is put in front of you. So what if you don't 'like' it? We've been very privileged for a long time.
Learn to hunt and garden.

IF it happens, just deal with it. Day by day.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Little Hawk
Date: 10 Aug 07 - 10:25 PM

How does one find out where they are? Surely they do not advertise their location(s) on a daily basis, do they?

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Peace
Date: 10 Aug 07 - 10:00 PM

Shoulda looked first. Three are off Guam.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Peace
Date: 10 Aug 07 - 09:59 PM

An additional worry is that the entire stock of Nomex (fire-retardant material) was scoffed by the US military. Where are the American carrier groups? Does anyone know?

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Janie
Date: 10 Aug 07 - 09:57 PM

I know it is grim short term, Ebbie. And I am also 55, not 65 or 75 or 85, so my retirement funds still have time to recover without me being actually effected short-term since I do not depend on them for current income.

But panic, at best, has a neutral effect, and at worst can cause a disaster that might not otherwise occur. I also have sufficient family to band together so that I am sure, one way or another, we can meet our collective basic needs, even if this financial
'catastrophe' strikes and stays for years. I am also willing to redifne family to include friends, neighbors, or the stranger 3 blocks overAnd if the end result is to reign in our society and/or our world to a sustainable level of existence, then I don't fear it to the point of panic.    My parents may suffer. I may suffer. But my son and grandchildren may ultimately benefit. In terms of survival of myself, my progeny, and the human race, I am much more concerned about the impending depletion of natural resources, especialy water, than I am about the financial economy. And even that, I try not to worry about.

The only function of worry is to make you feel bad.

Janie

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Bobert
Date: 10 Aug 07 - 07:58 PM

Well, one thing ain't changed since my Econ 201 and 202 days and that is ya' can't borrow yer way outta debt...

Debt is debt and that means that, in essence the day youm purchase something on credit, you have inflated it's price... Case in point... $250,000 house purchased for cash will cost you $250,000... But now if you borrow the $250,000 and amortize it over 30 years you will pay close to $700,000 for the same $250,000 house...

One of the things that has brought about this situation is the Bush tax cuts... Yeah, they were supposed to go for building new plants so more people would have jobs but it didn't work out that way... What it did was pump hundreds of billions of dollars into the lending pool...

Like I said, this so called "robust economy" that we've been hearing about was a false robust economy... It has been based on consumption rather than production... And it has caught up to US... We have borrowed aone heck of a lot on money to make it look as if all was well when in fact all hasn't been well... This has been a smoke and mirrors robust economy...

Now the smoke is clearing and we are all getting glimpse of what it's really about...

But the funny (no, not funny at all...) thing is that what we are seeing is a replay of the Reagan years... Borrow, borrow, borrow and borrow some more until the note gets called in... Happened in the 7th year of the Reagan administration and it's happening again...

When will they ever learn???

Bobert

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: GUEST, Ebbie
Date: 10 Aug 07 - 07:45 PM

It may be sensationalized, Janie, but although mainstream news the last couple of evenings isn't soft peddling it, their concern comes across as valid. One financial person was asked why his take on it is so much grimmer than it was just a week ago - and he said it's because the situation has become appreciably worse.

The week before, he had said that money lenders and mortgage holders may have cause to be worrying but that homebuyers might simply find it wise to put off the search, because the prices might come down a bit shortly. This week he's pointing out some hard facts.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Janie
Date: 10 Aug 07 - 06:43 PM

The way the news re: financial markets is being reported is enough to cause panic. -Even NPR sounds a bit sensational. It would be nice if some one would speak up and point out that nothing has happened that is not correctable over time. Reacting emotionally and making fear based financial decisions won't prevent or protect anyone from a crash, but can, in fact, precipitate a crash.

I'm about as foggy about economics as a body gets. But I do know that worry never improves anything.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Janie
Date: 10 Aug 07 - 06:25 PM

Interesting commentary on "All Things Considered" driving home from work today. As usual, I have no clue who I was listening to, but his observation was to the effect that if a credit crunch occurs and continues, and borrowing and lending practices in the USA become more responsible, overseas economies will suffer the brunt, and we in the USA who are largely responsible for the problem because of unsound practices, will actually fare ok. Why? Credit will still be available, but only to 'good risks.' 'Subprime' countries like Turkey and South Africa will not be able to borrow, but the USA will still be considered a good credit risk. The guy said it was US domestic lending practices (not just in the mortgage market, but to businesses and from Bank to Bank that is primarily responsible for the current scare, but we will not pay most of the price. Farmers in Turkey will pay the price.

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Bobert
Date: 10 Aug 07 - 06:15 PM

Actually the US economy has been crashed for several years... Borrowing and spending money isn't what old time economists would define as a robust economy...

You don't grow on debt...

Bobert

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: autolycus
Date: 10 Aug 07 - 06:04 PM

If a physicist was invited to consider what he would do if he was alone on a desert island with cans and no tin-opener, he'd say he would lay out loads of leaves on the ground, and so angle the tins that they would soon explode and the leaves catch the beans.

   if a philosopher was in the same position, he would say that he would see if he could prove that the cans were really there.

   An economist would begin thus,

"Assuming I had a tin-opener........................."






       Ivor

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: Don Firth
Date: 10 Aug 07 - 05:44 PM

Well, there is something to it, Doug. Read the news (no, not Fox). Mortgage companies and other lenders going belly-up right, left, and center.

###

GUEST, Froth? Consarned? Yep, I thought that was you again!

You know, there are places in Michigan, northern Idaho, or eastern Oregon where you'd feel right at home.

Now, as to your advice about various kinds of firearms and your battle-tactics suggestions;   let's look at the advice of someone who's been there and done that, to compare it with how your advice holds up in the real world.

Sgt. Alvin York, Medal of Honor winner for his heroism (and an extraordinary number of enemy troops killed) in World War I, was discussing effective "sniping" with a group of fellow soldiers. Many of them were fixed on the idea of taking out the group leader first. York pointed out what was obvious to anyone who takes the time to think about it. It' like goose hunting, said York:    "If you shoot the leader, the rest will spook and scatter. Shoot the last one in line. The others may not even notice. Then shoot the next. And the next. They may not even notice what's happening behind them, and you might be able to get them all!"

So much for shooting the group leader first. You'll just have to deal with the others later, and they'll be more wary next time.

Okay, since I am among The Ancient Ones, I remember the "Great Depression." I was a little kid at the time, but I saw a helluva a lot. I was too young to understand much of it at the time, but I did understand it later.

The most valuable thing you can have during something like the Depression is not an arsenal (nobody came to round people up an put them into concentration camps, and nobody sent out the troops to kill off the surplus population, or people picketing and protesting—the soldiers wouldn't have done it anyway), or a stash of gold bullion (when what everybody wants is food and a few other necessities), although a cash stash may turn out to be handy to have. What really will save your butt, and the butts of your family, is a skill that you can sell—or barter.

Been there. Seen it in action.

Don Firth

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: DougR
Date: 10 Aug 07 - 05:37 PM

Look out!!! The sky is falling.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Crash of U.S. Economy
From: GUEST,petr
Date: 10 Aug 07 - 05:07 PM

one of the first searches I ever did on the net
was the phrase 'economists were surprised'
try it..