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BS: Bobert's Election Prediction...
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 09 Nov 12 - 12:33 PM pdq and I have settled amicably. Anyone else want to bet on the outcome of the Obama/Romney Race? Oh, yah, it's over. Cheerily, Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: WalkaboutsVerse Date: 09 Nov 12 - 06:52 AM Should America be run by a council of Native Americans? Should Australia be run by a council of Aborigines? Should New Zealand/Aotearoa be run by a council of Maoris? Is imperialism wrong? My poem on "Land Rights" - http://www.myspace.com/walkaboutsverse/blog/476693050 |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity Date: 09 Nov 12 - 01:08 AM Yeah, the shitty stuff! GfS |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 08 Nov 12 - 08:27 AM Awwwww, shucks, folks... Yeah, I messed up and won't mess up no more... That good 'nuff??? BTW, I ain't movin' to smoke weed... We got weed here in NC.... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,skivee, guesting in Date: 08 Nov 12 - 03:02 AM Does that mean that you'll also be giving your concession speech soon? |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 07 Nov 12 - 10:12 PM Well, well, well... Looks as if the Dems have picked up 9 seats in the House... Okay, that's better... I called Obama by 4 points... Obama won by 2 points... I called the Senate picking up one Dem seat... They got two... I called the Dems picking up 14-16 seats in the House... It got 9... Not bad at all... Don't mess with the ol' hillbilly... I been a political weenie going way back... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 07 Nov 12 - 01:02 PM pdq- Are you there? You are uncharacteristically silent this morning. Please send me a PM about our little side bet. Cheerily, Charley Noble, now fabulously wealthy! |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Q (Frank Staplin) Date: 07 Nov 12 - 12:47 PM I predicted a squeaker win for Obama, he did better than that. He held on to a majority of the women's vote. I thought he would lose more. The Hispanic vote wasn't as split as I thought it would be. The Black vote performed as expected. Hispanics are now equal to the Black demographic, and increasing significantly. Small town and rural vote can't trump the urban vote any longer. Watching the Ohio vote come in on a county basis, most of them went to Romney, but the urban vote from Cleveland, Cincinati, etc. overrode it. This will be a factor in all future elections, the urban areas are growing and small town- rural America is losing clout. I thought Colorado would revert to the Republican column, but the city and Hispanic vote held up. Another state where the small town-rural vote is losing out. Still too early to get the Texas county vote, but I wonder if Bexar (San Antonio), etc. went to Romney, or, did the large Hispanic vote go to Obama? |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Ed T Date: 07 Nov 12 - 11:45 AM Blog from Wired: Probability Versus Prediction in Volcanic Hazards (and Elections) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bob the Postman Date: 07 Nov 12 - 10:37 AM Bobert, will you be moving to Washington or to Colorado? Or will you just wait where you are for the wave of legalization to sweep across the country. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 07 Nov 12 - 10:14 AM I am disappointed with my prediction on the House... Looks like the Dems will pick up 5 seats rather than 14-16... Sad commentary on just how gerrymandered our congressional districts have become... Sad situation for democracy... Oh well, 2 out of 3 ain't bad... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 07 Nov 12 - 10:14 AM The Nate Silver probability predictions have been vindicated. The political landscape looks better to me this morning at the National level as well as here in Maine, where Democrats regained control over both the Senate and the House, and voters passed Marriage Equality. I also liked the US Senate wins in Maine, Massachusetts, Missouri, Ohio, and several other states where tea-party Republicans went down. I also enjoyed Romney's concession speech, even if it took him an extra hour to present it. He said the right sorts of things as a gentleman who loses should say. Who know, maybe Obama will appoint him as the new Ambassador to Libya... Now it's time to make another run and pick up the rest of our lawn signs. Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 07 Nov 12 - 10:07 AM Alan Grayson won... Alan West didn't... Hooray... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Stringsinger Date: 07 Nov 12 - 10:05 AM There was so much GOP cheating and suppression of voters that in spite of what the media says, I think Obama probably, in reality, won by a landslide. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Ed T Date: 07 Nov 12 - 09:20 AM Time to put the chicken entrails back in the freezer for the next predictions - IMO, they work as good as any other prediction (guessing) method. :) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,olddude Date: 07 Nov 12 - 09:16 AM Hey Bobster, ya got any predictions ya can share on the lotto? I am going with you from now on ... you nailed it |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 07 Nov 12 - 09:11 AM Well, LH, at least Chongz met his overall target of less than 1%... I'm not sure on the House yet... I didn't say that the Dems would have a 14-16 majority... I said they would pick off 14-16 seats... And I can't find the actual pickups for the House... Anyone have a hard number there??? B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Richard Bridge Date: 07 Nov 12 - 08:25 AM I agree with Dick. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: The Sandman Date: 07 Nov 12 - 07:23 AM the bookies are rarely wrong, i won, but for the rest of the world it is a good result [imo], obama is the lesser of two evils |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity Date: 07 Nov 12 - 02:43 AM Something is happening, but you don't know what it is...... Do you, Mister Jones...... GfS |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Henry Krinkle Date: 07 Nov 12 - 12:07 AM Bush lost the popular vote. And ran the show. For 8 years. Sheep. Baaa as! =(:-( P) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:59 PM Okay, Bobert, here was your original prediction: Obama wins the biggie... Dems pick up 1 more Senate seat... More than likely, Elizabeth Warren Dems pick up 14-16 more House seats... That's the way it looks to me... It appears that you're right on Obama. Things turned out even better than you figured for the Dems in the Senate. Things turned out not as well as you figured in the House. Not bad, Bobert, as predictions go. You also predicted Chongo would get less than 1 percent of the vote. Right again! ;-) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:27 PM Huffington Post has Obama winning. They have him at 275 electoral votes now. Romney still leads by about 2 and a half percent in the popular vote. Chongo isn't even showing on the map! This will be a huge shock to his supporters who have been partying all day and into the night at Duffy's Bar in Chicago. I fear they may riot. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:23 PM There should be an aserisk after this election, since Romney will have about 5% more votes than The Bammer. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:18 PM One down, two to go... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:17 PM MSNBC just announced that Obama has been re-elected! Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 06 Nov 12 - 07:39 PM pdq- No, it's Romney that can't win without Ohio. Obama could actually lose both Ohio and Florida and still win. But the results will be much more clear in December! Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 06 Nov 12 - 06:34 PM Well, hold onto your seats, it's gonna get wild. Ohio closes at 7:30 ET, about one hour from now. Without Ohio, Obama can't win. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Ed T Date: 06 Nov 12 - 06:21 PM ""Whatever gets you through your life 'salright, 'salright Do it wrong or do it right 'salright, 'salright Don't need a watch to waste your time oh no, oh no"" |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 06 Nov 12 - 05:48 PM ...about Charley Noble's favorite eviction pundit, Nate Silver: "...Polls have been widely in flux for the past few weeks, until Obama seemed to take a strong and decisive lead over Romney in just the past few days. In fact, poll whiz Nate Silver upped President Obama's chances of a win to over 90% late last night on his popular 538 blog, essentially betting the ranch and his career on an incumbent win this election night. Silver currently projects Barack Obama to win a landslide 313 votes in the Electoral College to Mitt Romney's projected 225 electoral votes, with a 90.9% chance of an Obama win and only 9.1% for Romney. Silver says early voting trends and polls in Ohio (where exit polls may again come in as early as 5 PM) are the sticking point for Romney, and even the most die-hard GOP poll watchers believe that without Ohio, Romney has no path to 270..." |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 06 Nov 12 - 05:40 PM Well, I just got back from an afternoon of knocking on doors for Obama... Seems that just about every targeted voter had voted... That's a good sign that the ground game is working... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 06 Nov 12 - 05:21 PM My goodness! That kind of reminds me of when the BBC announcer in London, England announced the fall of World Trade Center Tower # 7....shortly before it had fallen! You could still clearly see WTC7 standing in the background of the live video playing behind her while she was saying that it had already collapsed into its own footprint. She was unaware of that, and simply read the statement that had been given to her to read. Verrry interesting. It'll be interesting to see how closely NBC's premature election announcement resembles the official results on the actual day. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity Date: 06 Nov 12 - 05:05 PM Hey Little Hawk this link you'd understand!! You still think it's not rigged????...Check this out! GfS |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 06 Nov 12 - 04:58 PM Well, it is the nature of the media to prefer a tension-filled spectacle to a foregone conclusion, that's for sure. What's the point in taking people through a yearlong soap opera if you don't have a tension-filled, knuckle-biting spectacle on the final night? To not do so would violate all the laws of commercial Entertainment! |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 06 Nov 12 - 03:53 PM VirginiaTam- The concluding paragraph of your link above makes interesting reading: "It remains unclear whether the news outlets are bent on making election night a tension-filled spectacle to increase network ratings, whether they are simply avoiding a complex and statistical-based analysis of the data, or whether they are merely being cautious. I simply don't know. What I do know is that I've already cast my early ballot, and I look forward to seeing the predictions of my statistical bloggers being fulfilled. While this election will clearly have an impact on US science, it's also great to see mathematicians-statisticians as heroes in the limelight." Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: VirginiaTam Date: 06 Nov 12 - 02:06 PM Statistician bloogers give Obama clear lead. And yesterday, some UK bookies were already paying out bets that Obama will win. That is how certain we are in the UK about this race. statistician bloggers |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 06 Nov 12 - 12:50 PM Chongo and his supporters are gathered at Duffy's Bar in Chicago and are already celebrating his imminent victory. It's quite a scene! Chimps, Bonobos, Gorillas, Baboons, Howlers, Capuchins, Macaques, even the odd Orangutan....and, of course, Chongo's human supporters as well. Every now and then there's a chorus of hooting and screeching that can be heard blocks away. The liquor is flowing freely. This will be THE place to be tonight when Chongo gives his victory speech, thanks all those who contributed to this historic moment, and magnanimously chuckles down his sleeve at his detractors. It's a damn good thing Duffy's has an outdoor patio and courtyard, cos there ain't nearly enough room in that place to hold this election night crowd. They are hangin' off the chandeliers! |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 06 Nov 12 - 12:49 PM Here's an interview last night between Colbert and Nate Silver: click here for video! The probability of Obama winning is now up to 90.9%. I like the quote from Silver that if it came to a choice between voting for pundits and voting for, say, ebola, he'd vote for ebola. Cheerily, Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 06 Nov 12 - 12:43 PM Whatever... B;~) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Henry Krinkle Date: 06 Nov 12 - 12:39 PM bobettekin. bobettekin. =(:-( D) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Ed T Date: 06 Nov 12 - 12:28 PM ""They called him 'country bobertkin' For stickin' to his roots He's just glad he's in a country Where folks are free to choose He was predicting, when predicting wasn't cool"" |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Henry Krinkle Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:37 AM Your man doesn't stand a chance. =(:-( D) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:20 AM My predictions are all mine, bb, and I posted them on another thread even before this thread some two months ago... I don't pay much attention to polls because most of them are bias... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: beardedbruce Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:12 AM btw, 100 |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:03 AM That smell you smell is Citizen's United cash dripping off Romney... No, this shouldn't be close, pdq, and if had been a straight up contest without the massive spending by people the Supreme Court says we don't have a right to know, it wouldn't be... The last time a candidate had as much headwind was Lincoln in 1860... But back then it wasn't secretly purchased headwind... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: beardedbruce Date: 06 Nov 12 - 10:59 AM Bobert, Does this have anything to do with your predictions? http://washingtonexaminer.com/philly-gop-poll-inspectors-being-ousted-for-dems/article/2512714#.UJkyhLSs38u As for the polls, http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 06 Nov 12 - 10:48 AM Most polls show the election tied (within margin of error). Some of those polls have up to +11 in sampling Democrats. 2008 had about 4% more Democrats voting, independents went way toward Obama. 2010 showed Dems and Repubs tied in actual voter turnout. This year, a +2 or so is reasonable for Democrats, but independents are way toward Republican, 5% to over 20% in some polls. This should not even be close. Something smells fishy since all the pollsters seem tohave coodinated their results to give Obama fans a bouce in their step as tey head toward the voting booth. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Henry Krinkle Date: 06 Nov 12 - 10:34 AM Too bad, bobette. I voted for Jill Stein. Green Party candidate. So there. Blah!! =(:-( P) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Ed T Date: 06 Nov 12 - 10:34 AM Headline: ""Bob Dylan stole Bobert's Election Prediction"" |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 06 Nov 12 - 10:25 AM Sorry, Krinkx, but you ain't Green Party material... B~ (Green Party precinct captain for Nader in 2000, Loudoun Co., Va.) |
