BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 02 Oct 14 - 05:47 PM

A well-regulated force of strong nurses? With the ability to enforce quarantine?

I have been saying all along that people coming out of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia should have a month's quarantine, most easily done by WHO or MSF or the UN between nations, in the transit areas of the airports. It takes up to 3 weeks to show symptoms if you, say, got exposed on your way out of the country at the last possible second; give it an extra week to be sure. The clock resets when any individual gets sick, if any. If it inconveniences a lot of people, that's a lot better than a lot of alternatives... anybody hear about hysteria in Texas? How would you feel if your kid was on a team sport with poor someone whose poor dad got sent home, sorry oops by mistake, with ebola leaking out of his every pore and then some new holes too? I'd be terrified.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: olddude
Date: 02 Oct 14 - 05:43 PM

CDC lady said they are working on other vaccines... getting them from tobacco cells of all things ... go figure huh

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Jack Campin
Date: 02 Oct 14 - 01:17 PM

By September a well organized Army could have slowed the epidemic to a controllable level.

Bollocks. Armies always spread epidemic disease. The Scottish army brought the Black Death to Scotland after a raid on England, the armies sacking Italy around 1500 spread syphilis round Europe, 19th century armies spread typhus, the Americans spread gonorrhoea round South-East Asia in the Vietnam War.

Soldiers are rapists and looters, however "well organized". That is not safe behaviour in an epidemic.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,donuel needs a cookie
Date: 02 Oct 14 - 12:42 PM

I think we are all on board the ship that will not allow rational fear or irrational conspiracy theory to sink our spirit or live in panic mode that would cause us to make bad choices.

I am not a Johnny come lately on this subject nor am I a professional epidemiologist.

The four ongoing concerns are:


1 Treatment and emerging cures.

2 Where is Ebola in humans and animals today?

3 Best and worst case scenarios

4 Social and Economic effects caused by Ebola


The issues of who caused this, who will prosper from this and who will who will suffer intentionally are in my opinion conspiracy theories that will not help anyone.

My opinion on how and why is economic. The US has not even paid all their dues to the World Health Organization. Back in April was the time we could have invested half a million dollars to end the outbreak.

In May for the price a rich person spends on restoring a 57 Chevy Belaire, we could have stopped the epidemic.

By August the money a wealthy person spends to restore a classic car could have supplied the infrastructure and supplies to stop the outbreak.

By September a well organized Army could have slowed the epidemic to a controllable level.

We are at a stage now that as little as 3 carriers could inflict pandemic effects upon our nation.

It was the LACK of money that allowed this plague to get a foothold.
Drug companies do not invest in R&D for tropical diseases. It is up to the Government. But the Government has been struck with a Sequestration that has crippled everyone in the Government from the Secret Service to CDC.

If you think a republican Congressman understands the gravity of the work the NIH and CDC does, you are mistaken.


So I will limit my contribution to
1 Treatment and emerging cures.

2 Where is Ebola in humans and animals today?

3 Best and worst case scenarios

4 Social & Market effects




OCT 2 2014
1 (((( We are doing vaccine trials. We have tried about a dozen times so far. We have a couple anti viral serums we are very hopeful about. It may have helped half the people who returned to the US for treatment so far to survive but we are not sure yet. Treatment is palliative and a strong push of fluids. Part of treatment should be quarantine after flights. Hell they quarantine fruits and Bonsai trees until they die or become inedible but we don't have routine quarantine for people yet.

2 (((( Ebola victims are currently confirmed in the US, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Nigeria. The animals such as African bats and Bonobo monkeys have tested positive but the bigger threat is the importation of African bush meat to every cultural mom and pop market across the US and many other countries thus infecting people in their own neighborhoods.

3 (((( The best case scenario for the one and only US Ebola victim is not to have infected anyone while he was sick with symptoms of nearly 5 days.
For every victim the likely infection rate is 2 more people infected. If a priest for example giving communion infected all the wafers from a cut on his fingers the rate of infection would be of course much more. Transmission is not guaranteed.
It will take about a year for all transmission to be stopped in the best case. In the worst case it will go around the world in 3 waves and burn out after killing over 3 billion people. If/when the Ebola virus mutates it could lose its fatal characteristics or become airborne and become worse for humans.

4(((( The news of Dallas exposure to Ebola could have stock market effects but it can not be proved. So far all goods and services are unaffected in the US but is disrupted in All but Nigeria in Africa.



Conspiracy theories that make the epidemic worse are:
The government wants our blood
Its all to make big Pharma richer
They are lying about Ebola not being air born.
They have a cure but will only give it to the rich.



The above current observations are subject to change.
Best case is it gets better in 6 months, worst case the death toll toll reaches 1.2 million people principally in Africa. If it hits Hong Kong Cairo or Mexico City before Christmas...game over since infrastructures will worsen all responses to the epidemic and become a true pandemic.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,Peter Laban
Date: 02 Oct 14 - 03:30 AM

Just goes to show you can have the finest quarantine facilities, it's the human failure that will turn out to be the weakest link.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 02 Oct 14 - 03:10 AM

Apparently 18 known contacts in the USA - but what about passers-by? This could easily get out of hand.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,Mrr
Date: 01 Oct 14 - 05:58 PM

That Guest above was me, sorry.

Yeah, it's here, now we care.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,Peter Laban
Date: 01 Oct 14 - 03:37 PM

The US case is put in a different light now officials have admitted that the Ebola patient was sent home by medical staff despite telling them of his recent return from Liberia:

Ebola patient told hospital staff about his travel to Liberia but was allowed home

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 01 Oct 14 - 05:11 AM

Not too soon.
In Texas now.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Donuel
Date: 01 Oct 14 - 12:22 AM

there is ABSOLUTELY nothing to worry about.
The Secret Service has been tasked with tracking down possible Ebola contactors.


wha... too soon?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Donuel
Date: 01 Oct 14 - 12:19 AM

It is definitively established it is NOT airborne.

Infected fluids during symptomatic phase like Saliva, urine, fecal fluid, mucosa or sweat must come into direct contact with your mouth, wet eye areas, nostril or a micro abrasion or cut in your skin to pass on the infection.

The virus does not survive long outside the body or body fluids dry However once a fluid dries it is still important to help the virus die with bleach. Toilet water for example can be safe to flush with bleach.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Ebbie
Date: 30 Sep 14 - 09:23 PM

Has it been definitively established that Ebola contamination is NOT airborne? Seems like that knowledge would have to be one of the first lines of defense.

If it is not airborne concerts and plane and train travel would still be OK. If an occasional case contracts it through someone's cough or sneeze or just plain breathing, I should think that staying away from crowds or close quarters would be a first step.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Jack Campin
Date: 30 Sep 14 - 09:20 PM

Flu epidemics spread at the same speed now as they did 100 years ago says the above. The question is where the PEOPLE to whom it spread can go which is way, way farther than THEY could 100 years ago.

The point is the speed of transport makes no difference. Compare the current ebola epidemic to the 1918-19 flu pandemic: there were tens of millions dead all round the globe within six months from the first known cases (about the time that's elapsed since the ebola epidemic started). Steam was plenty fast enough. The only places to escape were islands that shut themselves off, like American Samoa.

I suspect the very worst measure that could possibly be taken would be to involve the military, as some control freaks here are suggesting. Historically soldiers have been among the worst disease vectors ever to prey on humanity. It only takes one psycho uniformed rapist thinking "that one's too cute to waste" and down goes a regiment.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 30 Sep 14 - 07:50 PM

As guest said - http://www.theverge.com/2014/9/30/6875311/first-case-of-ebola-diagnosed-in-the-us-cdc-reports

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST
Date: 30 Sep 14 - 05:56 PM

Flu epidemics spread at the same speed now as they did 100 years ago says the above. The question is where the PEOPLE to whom it spread can go which is way, way farther than THEY could 100 years ago.

First case in the US.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Jeri
Date: 29 Sep 14 - 07:10 PM

Of course, the word "vector" isn't being used correctly. I think he just meant to say it was a contributing factor.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Jack Campin
Date: 29 Sep 14 - 06:58 PM

Another important vector which seems to be under control is international transport, without it being readily available it might be a concern, but as it is, possible victims are being identified before they contaminate others.

I wouldn't count on it. Flu epidemics spread at the same speed now as they did 100 years ago. Fast unchecked transport makes no difference, so slowing it down or monitoring it won't help.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST
Date: 29 Sep 14 - 05:41 PM

3 days later:
•Total Case Count: 6574, up 311, just over 100 people a day
•Total Deaths: 3091, up 174, not quite 100 people a day, high death% of those 311 though
•Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 3626, 139, only 40+ a day...


Is it time to declare martial law, barricade everybody and just take over? I don't mean the US, I mean the world, especially the Guineans, Sierra Leonians and Liberians, but also Ivorians, Malians, Senegalese, and Guinea-Bissauans. Anybody with a border on the 3 affected countries.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 26 Sep 14 - 08:05 PM

Hopefully, a vaccine in early 2015.

Obama has joined in calling for action; I hope it will be swift, but much complacency.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 26 Sep 14 - 02:32 PM

Early August:
Suspected and Confirmed Case Count: 3069 (137% of last week's)
Suspected Case Deaths: 1552 (126%)
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 1752 (127%)

End of Aug:
Suspected and Confirmed Case Count: 3707 (120%)
Suspected Case Deaths: 1848 (120%)
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 2106 (134%)

Nearing end of Sep:
Total Case Count: 6263 (170% of last month's, over twice a month's before)
Total Deaths: 2917 (160% / almost twice)
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 3487 (165% / very nearly exactly twice)

My friend who'd lost his niece has now lost 2 niblings and his sister.

Anybody else know anybody from Guinea, Sierra Leone or Liberia?

Also, does the US have a special responsibility for Liberia, do you think?

Is it time to declare martial law, barricade everybody and just take over? I don't mean the US, I mean the world, especially the Guineans, Sierra Leonians and Liberians, but also Ivorians, Malians, Senegalese, and Guinea-Bissauans. Anybody with a border on the 3 affected countries.

And I reiterate the harm that calling all people from Africa Africans instead of Liberians, Kenyans or what have you - now some are afraid of people from Kenya, which is I think farther from Sierra Leone than the East Coast of the US.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 25 Sep 14 - 04:48 PM

oops
Lots of data here.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 25 Sep 14 - 04:47 PM

Lots of data < href="http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/23/the-data-behind-why-this-is-the-biggest-ebola-outbreak-ever">here. Amazingly low death rate, really, in this particular outbreak, apparently, well, under 80%.

You have almost a chance in 5 of surviving, rather than less than 1 in 10.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 23 Sep 14 - 09:43 PM

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/health/ebola-cases-could-reach-14-million-in-4-months-cdc-estimates.html?_r=0

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 23 Sep 14 - 03:36 PM

Also skeptical.

It only takes one traveller. The emergency section of the Royal Alexandra in Edmonton, Alberta was closed for a time because of a suspected case (travel history and clinical condition was suggestive).
Thankfully, it was not Ebola.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 23 Sep 14 - 03:20 AM

I'll believe the Nigerian outbreak is contained when one can trust ANYTHING said by the Nigerian authorities.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 22 Sep 14 - 11:41 PM

Latest numbers from the CDC, updated 9/11:

Total Case Count: 5347
Total Deaths: 2630
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 3095

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 22 Sep 14 - 11:37 PM

Interesting article here...

If there can be a faint silver lining to this outbreak, it's that researchers have been able to study the evolution of the virus in a way no previous Ebola epidemic has allowed. With thousands of cases documented to date, investigators have been able to track mutations in the virus' RNA genome—and they found hundreds of mutations just in viruses examined before the publication of a paper in Science in August. In a tragic footnote, five of the authors of this paper died of Ebola during this outbreak.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 20 Sep 14 - 01:04 PM

Right. Your child is ill, go drum but don't touch their forehead.

I don't see that, somehow, without a lot more education, and a lot of those sterile-ish gowns, gloves and masks.

International transport isn't really a problem, you aren't contagious before you have symptoms (thank you mother nature and lady luck), and it isn't airborne anyway (thank you mother nature and lady luck again).

Yet.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: mg
Date: 19 Sep 14 - 09:52 PM

I disagree that all caring is done through touch. There is radio, i ternet, letters, gifts, phoning, visiting through glass barriers, shouting from a safe distancd..some of these options not available in dire poverty of course...prayer vigils,.group singing, drums, etc.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,Rahere
Date: 19 Sep 14 - 12:48 PM

Mrzzy, I know this can be fixating, but keep a balance. Simply to project a particular exponentiality presumes a homogenous population, unreactive to the problem until its too late. In this instance, the fear dynamic is important, but is not the only one: there is also a counter-dynamic in the conspiracy theorists on the ground, denying the disease and making themselves prime candidates to become victims.
Another important vector which seems to be under control is international transport, without it being readily available it might be a concern, but as it is, possible victims are being identified before they contaminate others.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 19 Sep 14 - 12:38 PM

Another snippet: Every mechanism we have for caring—touching, holding, feeding, playing, warming, comforting, caressing—every mechanism that we use to bind us to our families and our neighbors, is preyed upon by Ebola.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 19 Sep 14 - 12:33 PM

From the below article:

At this point, the number of people infected is doubling approximately every three weeks, leading some epidemiologists to project between 77,000 and 277,000 cases by the end of 2014.

Blicky to whole article: Click.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 11 Sep 14 - 12:24 PM

Remember, not airborne doesn't mean not easily transmissible!

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Jack Campin
Date: 10 Sep 14 - 07:11 PM

This is an eye-opener about how difficult it's going to be to stop this spreading.

infection by doorknob

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 10 Sep 14 - 12:05 PM

Apparently "probably" and if so, "probably" only to the particular strain of Ebola you survived.

Blicky

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 10 Sep 14 - 12:03 PM

Wow. Does survival give you immunity?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST
Date: 10 Sep 14 - 05:54 AM

From: Rumncoke
Date: 03 Sep 14 - 01:42 PM

I was just making coffee and turned on the BBC radio 4 news. It was reported that a nurse who had been airlifted home and was on a new drug has now recovered and left hospital. He has no plans to return to Africa - and as his passport was one of the things incinerated in an effort to destroy all possible sources of infection it will be a while before he can go far at all.

An update on that:


William Pooley : I am going back to Sierra Leone

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 09 Sep 14 - 10:21 PM

Looks exponential to me. Wait for the lift-off in the numbers of Nigerian cases.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 09 Sep 14 - 12:08 PM

New numbers as of end of Aug:

Suspected and Confirmed Case Count: 3707
Suspected Case Deaths: 1848
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 2106

Death rate .88 to .57.

And the numbers are climbing more steeply.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Rumncoke
Date: 03 Sep 14 - 01:42 PM

I was just making coffee and turned on the BBC radio 4 news. It was reported that a nurse who had been airlifted home and was on a new drug has now recovered and left hospital. He has no plans to return to Africa - and as his passport was one of the things incinerated in an effort to destroy all possible sources of infection it will be a while before he can go far at all.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 02 Sep 14 - 11:35 PM

No, they are just tiny and have very short generations and mutate like crazy. They have no intention or intelligence... unfortunately, or they could be bargained with. This strain of Ebola does not appear to be airborne, so far.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: mg
Date: 02 Sep 14 - 07:21 PM

I think things can never be ruled out when it comes to epidemics and viruses..oh you can't get it by kissing, oh you can't get it from mosquitos, or whatever. Viruses are smarter than us by far.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 02 Sep 14 - 07:01 PM

All cases now it seems traced back to the funeral of a "traditional healer" - and possibly a single zoonotic source (maybe). Over 300 mutations since this outbreak started. My fear is of this being as nasty as the medieval Black Deaths/plagues - which halved the population of Europe and might have killed 200 million - not least in that I am far from clear that pneumonic transmission can conclusively be ruled out and the survival period of the virus outside a host can be up to 50 days at 4 degrees Centigrade.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 02 Sep 14 - 05:52 PM

This week's numbers, I've been gone:

Suspected and Confirmed Case Count: 3069 (137% of last week's)
Suspected Case Deaths: 1552 (126%)
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 1752 (127%)
Death rate .85 to .51, not changing much. But the outbreak is months old, and the numbers went up about a third in the last week or so, that can't be good.

How does one calculate the death rate from these numbers, which are from the CDC website?

A week ago the numbers were:

Suspected and Confirmed Case Count:         2240
Suspected Case Deaths:         1229
Laboratory Confirmed Cases:       1383
And my question had been, So, is that a.54 death rate, a .62 death rate, or a .89 death rate?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 22 Aug 14 - 12:09 PM

Can they stop people making international flights in that transit section when you are out of one country and not yet in another, for a month (or even the original 40 days) of quarantine? With instant whisking to hospital in isolated van at first fever?

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: mg
Date: 22 Aug 14 - 11:52 AM

Why would you bring a body to a hospital..autopsy perhaps..but still that does not make sense...

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,Peter Laban
Date: 22 Aug 14 - 03:45 AM

Well, the case is that of a building contractor who worked in Sierra Leone. He died shortly after his return, it was the funeral director who brought the body to Letterkenny general hospital.

Probably a case of better safe than sorry. No mention of the funeral director getting quarantined after handling the body.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 21 Aug 14 - 11:19 PM

Yeah, there are "possible" cases in a lot of places, as lots of people have traveled to West Africa and then get (most likely ramdomly or at least not Ebola-ly) sick later. I hope people assume that they should be quarantined until proven otherwise rather than the other way around...

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: GUEST,Peter Laban
Date: 21 Aug 14 - 04:03 PM

Just on RTE news: The Health Service Executive of Ireland is examining a possible case of Ebola in Co Donegal.

Subject: RE: BS: Anybody else watching Ebola break out?
From: mg
Date: 21 Aug 14 - 03:18 PM

here is some shipping from new york to west africa. http://globalcitynyc.com/2012/10/15/west-african-new-yorkers-ship-large-goods-and-profits-across-atlantic/

it is done all the time. people find ways to get it to destinations..never underestimate the power of the human spirit...never say never...never say we can only move stuff by air and helicopter in a disaster..there are never going to be enough. When Katrina came they waited for 4 helicopters when they were surrounded by pretty shallow water that swift boat veterans were prevented from going in for rescuing people and bringing supplies. When Haiti had its earthquake we were so close to US landmass..oh dear the docks are wrecked..get it there anyway..send a zodiac with a couple of people and as much water as can be loaded and say that further supplies are on the boat...every able bodied person there will start commandeering small boats and building rafts and swimming to tow whatever back. there are sometimes animals that can be used..if they have a supply of newfoundland dogs..who knows..donkeys, mules, llamas, camels, water buffalo, dogs..we do not have to think only in US terms..rickshaws...wheelbarrows, backpacks..all can and will be used. it was awful watching fukishima surrounded by water and they were not using it..at least that is how it appeared. get stuff close by and people there will figure out how to get it further. And how to use those mounds of clothes people are so worried about. They can distribute them on site, they can see that they get taken further in, they can be used to stuff furniture and quilts, used as diapers, bandages, rugs. Do not spend one second worried that a wedding dress will make it into the mix as did somewhere...Guatamala..people have worried about that for years. Some bride was probably very happy.