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BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake

Mr Red 12 Nov 16 - 08:06 AM
gnu 12 Nov 16 - 08:43 AM
Rapparee 12 Nov 16 - 09:34 AM
McGrath of Harlow 12 Nov 16 - 10:49 AM
Greg F. 12 Nov 16 - 10:55 AM
gnu 12 Nov 16 - 01:29 PM
Donuel 12 Nov 16 - 01:51 PM
Mrrzy 12 Nov 16 - 03:22 PM
Stim 12 Nov 16 - 03:54 PM
Mr Red 13 Nov 16 - 05:36 AM
Bee-dubya-ell 13 Nov 16 - 07:44 AM
Steve Shaw 13 Nov 16 - 08:06 AM
Donuel 13 Nov 16 - 11:29 AM
Steve Shaw 13 Nov 16 - 11:41 AM
Steve Shaw 13 Nov 16 - 11:56 AM
gnu 13 Nov 16 - 12:03 PM
Mr Red 13 Nov 16 - 02:02 PM
Jack Campin 13 Nov 16 - 02:52 PM
Donuel 13 Nov 16 - 05:43 PM
leeneia 13 Nov 16 - 10:36 PM
Mike in Brunswick 13 Nov 16 - 11:16 PM
Gurney 13 Nov 16 - 11:31 PM
Gurney 13 Nov 16 - 11:56 PM
Tattie Bogle 14 Nov 16 - 05:19 AM
Fossil 14 Nov 16 - 06:26 AM
leeneia 14 Nov 16 - 11:03 AM
Pete from seven stars link 14 Nov 16 - 11:15 AM
Steve Shaw 14 Nov 16 - 03:35 PM
Pete from seven stars link 15 Nov 16 - 04:22 AM
Mr Red 15 Nov 16 - 06:50 AM
Iains 15 Nov 16 - 07:08 AM
Steve Shaw 15 Nov 16 - 07:28 AM
Mr Red 15 Nov 16 - 08:03 AM
Iains 15 Nov 16 - 08:09 AM
Iains 15 Nov 16 - 09:25 AM
leeneia 15 Nov 16 - 10:57 AM
Steve Shaw 15 Nov 16 - 11:07 AM
Iains 15 Nov 16 - 11:10 AM
Iains 15 Nov 16 - 11:18 AM
Iains 15 Nov 16 - 11:59 AM
Bill D 15 Nov 16 - 12:05 PM
Steve Shaw 15 Nov 16 - 12:35 PM
Iains 15 Nov 16 - 12:44 PM
Fossil 16 Nov 16 - 12:31 AM
Mr Red 16 Nov 16 - 03:07 AM
Tattie Bogle 16 Nov 16 - 05:41 AM
Steve Shaw 16 Nov 16 - 07:37 AM
Donuel 16 Nov 16 - 08:51 AM
Donuel 16 Nov 16 - 01:07 PM
Mr Red 17 Nov 16 - 04:54 AM
leeneia 17 Nov 16 - 10:08 AM
Jack Campin 17 Nov 16 - 11:01 AM
Gurney 17 Nov 16 - 03:34 PM
Tattie Bogle 17 Nov 16 - 08:34 PM
leeneia 18 Nov 16 - 09:53 AM
Gurney 18 Nov 16 - 04:00 PM
Jack Campin 18 Nov 16 - 05:38 PM
Jack Campin 18 Nov 16 - 05:58 PM
Steve Shaw 18 Nov 16 - 07:18 PM
Jack Campin 18 Nov 16 - 08:53 PM
leeneia 18 Nov 16 - 09:57 PM
leeneia 18 Nov 16 - 09:59 PM
Donuel 19 Nov 16 - 04:57 AM
Jack Campin 19 Nov 16 - 06:01 AM
Gurney 19 Nov 16 - 04:27 PM
Steve Shaw 19 Nov 16 - 06:00 PM
robomatic 19 Nov 16 - 10:22 PM
Mr Red 21 Nov 16 - 10:22 AM
Donuel 21 Nov 16 - 04:28 PM
Steve Shaw 21 Nov 16 - 04:35 PM
Mr Red 21 Nov 16 - 06:44 PM
Steve Shaw 21 Nov 16 - 07:36 PM
Donuel 21 Nov 16 - 07:37 PM
leeneia 21 Nov 16 - 08:56 PM
Steve Shaw 21 Nov 16 - 09:08 PM
Steve Shaw 21 Nov 16 - 09:13 PM
leeneia 23 Nov 16 - 10:11 AM
Iains 23 Nov 16 - 11:29 AM
Mr Red 09 Jan 17 - 07:16 AM

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Subject: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse.....
From: Mr Red
Date: 12 Nov 16 - 08:06 AM

No jokes this time

In the San Francisco Bay Area, new findings now show a connection between two fault lines that could result in a major earthquake clocking in at magnitude 7.4. here if you have a subscription

Basically the Hayward Fault goes every 140 years on average and the last time was 148 years. Pressure is building up in both, apparently, and if the Rogers Creek Fault slips it will trigger the Hayward.

These things come piled on top of other woes, even so Trump can't be blamed per se but it wouldn't hurt to..........

Just saying


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse.....
From: gnu
Date: 12 Nov 16 - 08:43 AM

Don't go finding fault with everything. Don't worry, be happy.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse.....
From: Rapparee
Date: 12 Nov 16 - 09:34 AM

It's easy to slip into fault-finding, but not by induction, only by subduction.

The Cascadia Fault may also be overdue and may have triggered the San Andreas Fault in the past. If the Cascadia goes and triggers only a 6.7 earthquake it's estimated that 13,000 would die, thousands more would be injured, even more would need food and water, a third of the emergency personnel couldn't get to work even if they did survive, and the property damage would be in the upper hundreds of billions of USD. If that also triggered the San Andreas Fault the damage would extend from Vancouver Island to Los Angeles. These damage estimates do not include the tsunami that would almost certainly result from the Cascadia slippage.

No, that would not be Trump's fault (pun intended). I blame Chester A. Arthur.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse.....
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 12 Nov 16 - 10:49 AM

But of course Trump would make sure to get his hands on the contracts for rebuilding the destroyed cities.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse.....
From: Greg F.
Date: 12 Nov 16 - 10:55 AM

Trump...rebuilding the destroyed cities

Using foreign workers and foreign steel.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse.....
From: gnu
Date: 12 Nov 16 - 01:29 PM

Trump's rape case has been dropped. Looks like he may get an out-of-court settlement or a delay or might even win in the Trump University fraud charges so, it looks like he will be... sorry, still can't say it.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse.....
From: Donuel
Date: 12 Nov 16 - 01:51 PM

congressman Inhofe chairmen of the Science Committee knows this Mr. Red. If need be he is assured the faults can be dug up and moved.

Add a super moon gravity increase and you get an extra tug on those faults.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse.....
From: Mrrzy
Date: 12 Nov 16 - 03:22 PM

Let's not forget Yellowstone and the giant caldera


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse.....
From: Stim
Date: 12 Nov 16 - 03:54 PM

Don't forget the one that everyone forgets, the New Madrid Fault Zone.

It is four times larger than the San Andreas one, and was host to four of the most severe earthquakes in our history--ranging from 8.2-8.6. Don't also forget that it is close to the fracking induced earthquakes in Oklahoma, which may be loosening it up. The result could split the US even more severely than Trump's election....


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse.....
From: Mr Red
Date: 13 Nov 16 - 05:36 AM

Add a super moon gravity increase and you get an extra tug on those faults.

we had discussion in this vein in this parish some time ago and my contention (cribbed from the New Scientist) was poo-pooed without reference to research. I asked my Brother-in-Law, a PhD in Marine Geology, and he reckoned the idea had been around for years and did not have much traction.

Call me an engineer but - if you put two surfaces together and tried to move one, you get friction. If you inject vibration the friction is less.

Now translate that to the global scale - time and space - and you have precisely the same situation. Moon nearer, more vibration. More probability.

I was being serious, but I like the humo(u)r none the less. Now tell me, how big is the dumpster gonna be when they dig up the San Andreas?
And does Trump actually know something we don't?


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse.....
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 13 Nov 16 - 07:44 AM

For 240 years, Mother Nature's been giving the portion of the North American continent occupied by the political entity calling itself The United States a pass on really horrible natural disasters. She's been intrigued by the grand human experiment in rational self-governance taking place there and has been reluctant to kill off too many of its participants at one fell swoop lest the experiment fail.    Well, it's pretty obvious now that the experiment's not working so well, so we can expect all the disasters we've been spared since 1776 to start happening pretty soon.

We apologize to our neighbors to the North where the experiment seems to still be doing fine, but when Yellowstone blows you're gonna be collateral damage.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse.....
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Nov 16 - 08:06 AM

Well there was the 1906 earthquake. What do you think will come first, Yellowstone or the Campi Flegrei? There was some very worrying heave-ho in Pozzuoli in the 1980s and there seems to be a big blob of magma on the move not far from Naples. Dragged Mrs Steve there a couple of years ago (nearly got meself mugged on the underground in Naples for my troubles!) and we found the Solfatara crater satisfyingly active, dangerous and smelly. Get off the train at Pozzuoli and walk up the hill. Very potentially phreatic!

Didn't the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption at Campi Flegrei allegedly wipe out the Neanderthals? Bet THEY thought it couldn't get much worse!


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Donuel
Date: 13 Nov 16 - 11:29 AM

Hours ago

NEW ZEALAND 7.4 Earthquake on this supermoon weekend.

without data analysis we will not know if this is part of a lunar related phenomenon.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Nov 16 - 11:41 AM

My earthquake app gives it as a 7.9. in what looks like a sparsely-populated bit of South Island.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Nov 16 - 11:56 AM

Looks like major population areas were spared, though tsunamis have been generated. Hopefully they will subside without incident.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: gnu
Date: 13 Nov 16 - 12:03 PM

Tsunami... 2.5m Could 5m in some areas. Lots on the news feeds. There ya go, Mr Red et al.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Mr Red
Date: 13 Nov 16 - 02:02 PM

I PM'd my Brother in Law and nieces in North Island, NZ. They are OK except one is not on line and living in Napier. A pretty bad quake in the 1930s there!
the other niece blamed it on Trump!


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Jack Campin
Date: 13 Nov 16 - 02:52 PM

The quake was centred in the part of NZ that hosts most of the country's wine industry - miles and miles of dead flat indistinguishable vineyards. And there's a picture on stuff.co.nz of a supermarket aisle in Nelson that looks like the aftermath of a chainsaw massacre - the crimson fluid is dozens of smashed bottles of wine.

Allahu Akbar. Denmark, you get it next for the bacon.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Donuel
Date: 13 Nov 16 - 05:43 PM

Mr. Red,
How did you feel when you where creating this thread?

It is quite normal to have pre cognition for events experienced by multitudes. The more people and over more time, the more they resound in a geometry we perceive as the past. Why is that.
Fuck if I know, sort of.

Stay free.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: leeneia
Date: 13 Nov 16 - 10:36 PM

from the original post:

even so Trump can't be blamed per se but it wouldn't hurt to..........

1. Keep shoes by your bed at all times. The most common injury in earthquakes is cut feet.

2. Have a strong piece of furniture to get under.

3. Don't hang pictures, mirrors, over your bed.

4. Strap down your water heater.

5. Know how to turn off your water and gas.

6. Move far from any known faults.

============
It's bad news from New Zealand. Two dead, much damage.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Mike in Brunswick
Date: 13 Nov 16 - 11:16 PM

I wonder who the next director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency will be. The last time an amateur with political connections was put in that position- remember Brownie? - things didn't work out so well.

Mike


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Gurney
Date: 13 Nov 16 - 11:31 PM

Here in Auckland NZ I didn't feel a thing, but others here did. We were asleep. I sometimes wonder if people who sleep alone are the ones who feel these nocturnal 'quakes.

19 evacuees found that they had been robbed when they returned.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Gurney
Date: 13 Nov 16 - 11:56 PM

Just watched the news on TV. Tsunami waves of 2.5metres on the regions coastline. Both rail and most roads are closed in the area, bridges damaged and landslips are extensive.
At least one of the fatalities was in an old, brickbuilt house. Modern houses don't collapse readily, they are woodframed. We are more likely to be killed by our furniture.

The capital, Wellington, suffered extensive damage, with glass everywhere on the streets. Leenia's advice about shoes (above) is well taken.
And the weather forecast is for nasty weather.
Comment from an American tourist in Wellington.
"We didn't expect this. They put it on for us as an extra!"


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Tattie Bogle
Date: 14 Nov 16 - 05:19 AM

Comment from friend's daughter in Wellington: "that was massive!". She has reported several aftershocks since. (Even more scary as the mother of a week-old baby!)


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Fossil
Date: 14 Nov 16 - 06:26 AM

Was lying in bed just after midnight on Sunday, about to turn out the light when it started. By far and away the worst shake I have ever been in. Was lying there as the bed was hopping up and down, listening to creaks and groans as the house tried to tear itself apart, bangs and crashes as books, ornaments and cupboard contents leapt to the floor, the grand piano twanging miserably to itself and my guitars crashing out of their cupboard across the floor.

It is easy to be dismissive of earthquakes until you have been in a big one. Now aftershocks going on... and on... and bloody on! Over 500 today, including some quite big ones. One every couple of minutes for the last half hour, including one which knocked some books down I had already picked up. Might have to reconsider my bookworm habits of having books stuffed onto shelves three deep and go for boxes instead. And every time, you have to stop and think - is this a re-run of the Big One? Should I get under cover? Nerves rapidly fraying: have had enough!

I live at the bottom of the North Island of New Zealand. It is an order of magnitude worse down south. Kaikoura, a big touristy destination for whale-watching is totally cut off, neither road nor rail will be open for weeks, looking at the helicopter footage. There are no trains and no ferries between the islands and there are two homeless ferryboats parked in Wellington Harbour as the loading ramps have been damaged at both of the ports they use and they can't get the passengers off.   

Two confirmed dead, many injured and billions of dollars in property damage. Not a lot of fun. And another sleepless night in prospect hoping the tsunami alarm doesn't go off. Pray for us, please.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: leeneia
Date: 14 Nov 16 - 11:03 AM

I'm sorry for your troubles, Fossil, but also glad it wasn't worse. Your place had no deaths or injuries.

You better think of a system for tying your guitars down. I hope they survived okay.

As for books three deep - I'd worry about what that weight is doing to the timbers of your house.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Pete from seven stars link
Date: 14 Nov 16 - 11:15 AM

Please God it passes soon with no more big ones .


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 14 Nov 16 - 03:35 PM

Well God did it. Have a word, pete.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Pete from seven stars link
Date: 15 Nov 16 - 04:22 AM

Steve , fossil ended his/her post, please pray for us . No need for your cynical comments . I could explain to you the theology behind suffering but as you deny Gods existence it would be somewhat futile I suspect.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Mr Red
Date: 15 Nov 16 - 06:50 AM

How did you feel when you where creating this thread?

altruistic, but not psychic. With a soupçon of humour directed at Trumpy.

Intrigued the NZ one was at the Supermoon, only to highlight the (debated) connection between earthquakes and tidal friction. It would be interesting to know if moonquakes were more frequent as well.

the thread was started in reference to San Fransisco, I didn't think of the supermoon nor other earthquake zones.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Iains
Date: 15 Nov 16 - 07:08 AM

Tidal effects do not cause earthquakes, they are caused by stress release along fault lines, but they may provide a trigger mechanism.

http://www.nature.com/news/moon-s-pull-can-trigger-big-earthquakes-1.20551


http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2009/11/20/20climatewire-how-storms-can-trigger-earthquakes-28304.html


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Nov 16 - 07:28 AM

Well, Pete, yer man was asking a mixture of God-squadders and atheists to pray. It's like asking a mixture of carnivores and veggies to enjoy these pork chops. And if you believe, as your post implies, that God could get you out of trouble if it pleases him, the obvious conclusion is that ''twas he who got you into trouble in the first place if it was something like an earthquake that you can't have caused yourself. Yeah?

Incidentally, when I have I ever denied God's existence? I'm just like you - I don't know.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Mr Red
Date: 15 Nov 16 - 08:03 AM

Tidal effects do not cause earthquakes, there's someone who doesn't read the New Scientist. Or posts properly. How many moons in our solar system are hotter than they should be, because of tidal friction? The effect is on rock, as well as water, it is just relative.

The moon doesn't cause earthquakes, per se. Any more than vibration causes friction. And the analogy holds well because vibration reduces friction thus, and is well used in industry, and lubrication does too.

How many fault lines are there with a stream or river flowing along them? They occur in NZ and it is well recognised there is a link. Indeed (see New Scientist again) one proposal is to inject water into faults in California to generate many small quakes, instead of armageddon. And it wasn't Trump who thought up that one!

Now the moon causes tidal friction, and is a near sinusoidal vibration therefore on the global spacial/time scale fully analogous. The problem is one of prediction - not understanding causality.

Then there are moonquakes. See New Scientist again for tidal friction/cause on that one too.

Quakes are random events on the timescale of your life, and many better minds than mine have little pre-cognition when it comes to date, but they know probability a bit better.

Tidal effects do cause quakes, it is just a matter of which is the most important influence - i.e. the one inside this planet, c.f. extra-terrestrial.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Iains
Date: 15 Nov 16 - 08:09 AM

Mr Red
Is it your reading skills or cognitive skills in need of attention?


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Iains
Date: 15 Nov 16 - 09:25 AM

For Mr Red
Earthquakes are caused by stress release in rocks strained beyond their failure envelope. The causes of stress are mainly attributed to the dynamics of plate tectonics over periods of time. What actually triggers the failure is a matter of both study and debate, Tidal events, storm events, flooding, water injection etc. etc can all give a shock event to bring about failure. These events however only contribute to a premature failure that would eventually occur anyway.
This is because regional stress is in a stasi equilibrium and when failure occurs the entire spectrum of stress may be modified over a long/short timescale and area and cause additional failures for this reason.
This is the likely explanation of aftershocks.
Quantification of degree is possible(post event) but prediction is not yet feasible. There is a school that feels annimals can predict earthquakes and modify their behaviour. This does not have general acceptance, although annimals senses have mostly a greater range than humans so may be able to sense factors we are unaware of.

It is a fascinating field to study and prediction would be a tool all would wish for in order to reduce fatalities.



http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2011/05/the-many-faces-of-earthquake-triggering/

http://petrowiki.org/Stress_strain_relationships_in_rocks


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: leeneia
Date: 15 Nov 16 - 10:57 AM

Mr. Red, I understand your concern for people in the neighborhood of the San Andreas fault system, including the Hayward fault. But I think you are being exposed to alarmist literature.

Who told you that minor, local quakes in Oklahoma (caused by brine injection, not fracking) would somehow activate the deep, ancient New Madrid rift, which is hundreds of miles away?

I suggest you go to the public library and read a number of geology books. They are fascinating. Then change New Scientist for Science News.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Nov 16 - 11:07 AM

Well his reading and cognitive skills may be raising doubts in your mind, but it's a good bet that he can spell "animals" better than you.

It's a perfectly reasonable hypothesis that some earthquakes may be triggered (caused? Discuss...) by gravitational effects. It's also perfectly reasonable to argue as to whether they may or may not be a significant factor. The moon's gravitational pull is the main cause of tides, the pulling around of water. The upper mantle is not a rigid solid and it's not beyond the bounds that it could also be affected by gravity. I have a feeling that, in wanting to display your undoubted knowledge of plate tectonics, you've decided to talk past Mr Red here.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Iains
Date: 15 Nov 16 - 11:10 AM

I made another mistake too stasi should obviously be quasi.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Iains
Date: 15 Nov 16 - 11:18 AM

What is it about the cause of an event and the trigger of an event defies people's comprehension. You can sit in a car but it will not move until you start it.
You can pull an elastic band until it snaps, you can put a match to it, you can cut it with a knife.
The rubber band is in a stressed state for whatever reason and then the stress is released by the triggers mentioned.
What is so difficult to understand about these two discrete concepts?


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Iains
Date: 15 Nov 16 - 11:59 AM

I have no desire to talk past anyone. I would prefer to carry them with me.
It may not be understood by everyone that the earth is subjected to stress in the upper mantle/lithosphere. This is caused in the main by plate movements. This stress field is ongoing and in a sort of dynamic equilibrium. When the stress is locally released, generally along an existing fault plane, the result is an earthquake. Concurrent with the release of energy/stress the local stress pattern will be modified and this may lead to further quakes as dynamic equilibrium is re established.
The only point I wish to make is that an earthquake is the result of the local stress exceeding the capacity of the rocks to accommodate it.
The failure creates a rupture, a release of energy as a series of waves, some of which cause the damage.
So in essence the ground is already in a state of stress, it is a trigger that causes localised release of pressure.i.e. an earthquake.

Further information concerning stress in in the attached link:

http://dc-app3-14.gfz-potsdam.de/pub/introduction/introduction_frame.html


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Bill D
Date: 15 Nov 16 - 12:05 PM

"(caused? Discuss...)" I could go on for an hour about the many concepts/definitions of 'causality', but if you want a general intro., this will do.

Obviously, it is impossible to name just one for an event like an earthquake, since the *remote cause(s)* enter the calculation.

Very few places are totally safe. I live near Washington D.C., and have cracks in my ceiling from a medium sized quake in August, 2011. Very rare around here.

What I worry about are things like La Palma in the Canary Islands.... and yes, Yellowstone and San Andreas and Cascadia, just because I will be affected even if they don't get me, personally. I have all I can do just coping with recent political events that I tried to affect.

TV programs warn me about meteors, comets, asteroids, Kudzu, killer bees, fracking, old nuclear reactors, global warming, drug side effects..... and supernovas in some nearby galaxy. Not much I can do about any of those. The universe doesn't care, and I've made it this far for 77+ years.
I always hope for good luck for everyone ... but... *shrug*


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Nov 16 - 12:35 PM

Well I've just heard on the radio that air pollutants such as diesel particulates "shorten the lives of 40,000 Brits per annum." I must say, I'm in awe of the people who can somehow glean that kind of statistic. I was just thinking to myself of all those emergency ambulances, belting around and belching out all those diesel particulates, as they rush critically-ill patients to hospital in order to, er, lengthen their lives....

My old Ford Focus has a diesel particulate filter. Do I pass the test?

And I still think it would be unscientific to dismiss out of hand the possibility that the moon's pull might just trigger/cause/instigate/provoke/initiate/set off an earthquake or two here and there. The straw wot broke the camel's back, sort of thing...


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Iains
Date: 15 Nov 16 - 12:44 PM

Steve Shaw
Were tidal events not mentioned as a potential trigger?
and wot creates the tides?


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Fossil
Date: 16 Nov 16 - 12:31 AM

We here in NZ are collectively thanking (insert deity or abstract of choice) that the earthquake happened just after midnight on a Sunday night.

Had it happened twelve or so hours later, the death toll would have been in the thousands. So just for the Mudcat mutual masturbation muppets who like to slag each other off rather than engage with real-world problems, here are a few things to think about.

The main highway up and down the South Island is smashed beyond repair and may never re-open. All the connecting roads are closed too. For the UK, imagine if Al Quaeda had bombed the M1 in fifty different places, and all the other north-south roads were closed as well.

Same with the main railway line. That may never get rebuilt.

This means currently that there is no land communication up and down the entire South Island and even when some of the roads are re-opened, cities such as Christchurch, Dunedin and Otago are going to be in difficulties for a long time.

The coastline for hundreds of kilometres along the east coast has been uplifted by up to 2 metres. Just gives you an idea of the forces that were at work on Sunday.

There have now been more than 800 aftershocks, some of which would qualify as pretty solid earthquakes in their own right. And each time you sit and feel the house moving from side to side and wonder whether or not to take cover. There is a distinct toll on the nerves.

There are people out in the rural backblocks who have had no availability of food, fresh water (other than rain) for two days now and probably won't even get checked on for weeks.

Even in my relatively civilised bit of NZ, I haven't been able to get into town due to landslips causing road closures. Possibly tomorrow, is the message.

Whether it was the moon, the seismic ship or homosexual activity (as suggested by an Auckland pastor) wot caused the earthquakes, Sundays earthquake was a big, seriously frightening, tragic and ultimately very expensive natural disaster and possibly deserves a bit more respect than it seems to be getting round here.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Mr Red
Date: 16 Nov 16 - 03:07 AM

I started this thread with the message of probability. The NZ quake just highlighted the randomness of actual events.

But no-one expected the Spanish Inquisition!


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Tattie Bogle
Date: 16 Nov 16 - 05:41 AM

All the very best wishes for staying safe to our friends in New Zealand.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Nov 16 - 07:37 AM

Blimey, I didn't think that homosexual activity was THAT vigorous! 😳

"Mutual masturbation muppets" implies some sort of orgiastic love-fest. Slightly wide of the mark , I'd say... 😂


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Donuel
Date: 16 Nov 16 - 08:51 AM

Mr. Red is extremely clever and honest. There is no such thing as 'a psychic feeling'. If you can note frequent super lucky moments or notice you have an edge in split second decisions you may have some pre cog talents. Time is not only flexible, so is human perception.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Donuel
Date: 16 Nov 16 - 01:07 PM

Bill if DE Palma falls into the sea the wave might only go as far as Camp David.

It would be a wild ride, stuck in traffic.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Mr Red
Date: 17 Nov 16 - 04:54 AM

Just had an e-mail from bro-in-law. It looks pretty serious, even if there were few deaths. Canada & OZ have sent warships to help ferry essentials to Kaikoura. He lives near Wellington & that has significant problems, and he is in Auckland with a daughter. The problems are logistical, but that doesn't make them easier.

When I lived there, the thinking was that ships would be the prime mode of getting places after such events. It does highlight how inter-dependent we all are.

In the UK we import a high percentage of our food.

When I asked bro-in-law about earthquakes around Wellington he mentioned the "big one" comes every 500 years ish, "oh!" says I, "when was the last one?" - he said without a flicker of trepidation, "1000 years ago". Not surprisingly they have whole gov depts (plural) dedicated to studying, monitoring, reporting, and preparing.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: leeneia
Date: 17 Nov 16 - 10:08 AM

Thanks for your information, Fossil and Mr. Red.

Here's a link to a page which describes the faults in New Zealand. It isn't a simple matter of subduction of ocean floor beneath a continent.   

https://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/Learning/Science-Topics/Earthquakes/Earthquakes-at-a-Plate-Boundary/Plate-Collision-in-NZ


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Jack Campin
Date: 17 Nov 16 - 11:01 AM

The other thing that goes off every few centuries is volcanoes in Auckland - the whole isthmus the city sits on was formed from them. There is very little warning with these - no magma chamber, a thin stream of lava shoots straight up from deep down and BANG. They're never very big, but a hill of red-hot rock a few hundred feet high suddenly appearing in the middle of the country's biggest city wouldn't do it a lot of good.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Gurney
Date: 17 Nov 16 - 03:34 PM

In NZ we were fortunate that there was a naval review due during the quake, and as Fossil says, warships from NZ, USA, Singapore, Canada, Australia (these I'm sure of, there were probably others) immediately went to the Kaikoura Coast and used their choppers to ferry tourists on board and deliver them to Christchurch. The weather closed in before locals could be safely moved. It has improved again now. Roads are being patched up where possible to get relief into more isolated settlements, but it will be a long time before they get back to anything near normal. Rail is being surveyed, but of course, rail is even more critical of a perfect arrangement than road.
Graphic TV of shellfish dying as they dry out due to the uplifted seabed. These particular large clams (Paua) have a home base, and are not happy anywhere else, so moving them en masse is not very practical. Plus, the people who could do it are busy. Talk of a fishing moratorium meeting with dismay in some circles, but seafood and tourism is the big moneymaker there, and there will be a long recovery period.
The capital Wellington suffered even more damage than was at first thought. Ongoing inspections.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Tattie Bogle
Date: 17 Nov 16 - 08:34 PM

Thanks for your updates, Gurney and Fossil: it all sounds pretty terrible.
As for some other posters here, well words fail me!


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: leeneia
Date: 18 Nov 16 - 09:53 AM

I'll put Auckland on my list of places not to move to, along with Naples, Seattle, Phoenix, San Francisco and Houston. And New Orleans.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Gurney
Date: 18 Nov 16 - 04:00 PM

Leenia, I've lived in Auckland for 43 years, only felt one earthquake, a single thump that did no damage. Auckland is, however, a volcanic field. It is ALL volcanos, the whole area. I live 500yds from a small one, and like all of them, it is dormant, not extict. The side that faces away from us is cut away vertically, -I do mean cut, the scoria was used for roadbuilding- and I would expect the folks who live on that side to benefit from any eruption first. There is no way out of here that doesn't pass a volcano. Even if you go by sea.
Makes you think. But I still would rather live here than anywhere else.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Jack Campin
Date: 18 Nov 16 - 05:38 PM

Most of the Auckland volcanoes were one-offs - they popped up like zits and never recurred.

The hot plume seems to be moving north-east - Rangitoto's eruption 500 years ago was the last. The reassuring thing about that is that it puts the likely spot for the next bang just offshore from the poshest houses in town (the big ones on the beach on the North Shore). It's hard to feel heartbroken about the prospect of people getting their swimming pools filled with ash.

I lived somewhere near where Gurney appears to be for a bit - Akiraho Street in Mount Eden. Socially it hasn't changed a whole lot in 40 years, and the house I lived in looks exactly like it did when I left in 1976, not one extra fencepost or flowerpot (or did when I visited 4 years ago). Weird little timewarp.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Jack Campin
Date: 18 Nov 16 - 05:58 PM

Just noticed this remarkable coincidence: in this article

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86599439/the-miraculous-rescue-of-100yearold-margaret-edgar

it mentions that the house that collapsed causing the only direct fatality of the quake was built by the Bullen family in 1875.

I knew the name Bullen from often seeing one of the standard textbooks on seismology by one of most prominent scientists NZ has produced:

http://www.asap.unimelb.edu.au/bsparcs/aasmemoirs/bullen.htm

I've never owned a copy but maybe I should,
it"s a bargain.

Keith Bullen was born in Auckland in 1906 - it's not a common name. Was he from the same family?


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Nov 16 - 07:18 PM

"Most of the Auckland volcanoes were one-offs - they popped up like zits and never recurred.

The hot plume seems to be moving north-east - Rangitoto's eruption 500 years ago was the last. The reassuring thing about that is that it puts the likely spot for the next bang just offshore..."

That's how it goes. Vesuvius has been incredibly active for 2000 years, and it's had two big jobs in the 20th century, in 1906 and 1944. The received wisdom is that it should have had one if not two more goes by now. But it's as dead as a doornail at the moment. Went up there in 1968 and it was well smelly. Went up there in 2013 and there was hardly a puff. Etna (up which I went last year) tends to have side craters that go bonkers for a short while then die and get covered in wild flowers. Wouldn't trust any of 'em, however. I've done Teide and Vulcano in my time as well as la Solfatara and Vesuvio. Jaysus, I love being terrified.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Jack Campin
Date: 18 Nov 16 - 08:53 PM

I went down the crater of Mount Eden (Maungawhau) when it was still ok, in the 70s (it's considered sacred now). Back then it was full of tennis-ball-sized lumps of red scoria (now grassed over). Creepy feeling to be at the bottom of a crater which you knew they were taking the temperature of every day, looking up at the rim all round you and imagining if you could run for it if it went off.

As I understand it, the whole Bay of Naples and quite a bit beyond is one huge caldera, generally called the Campi Flegrei after one small bit of it. Lake Taupo in NZ is even bigger. On the road round the lake you can look round and contemplate the fact that not only is the whole lake (still steaming in places, 26,000 years on) part of the caldera, so is everything you can see as far as the horizon, maybe 30 miles away.

Current thinking is that we would get a few centuries warning if something on that scale was going to go off (there are several candidates). Those years would be an interesting bit of human history.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: leeneia
Date: 18 Nov 16 - 09:57 PM

Thanks for the link, Jack. There are references in the account to concrete walls. I'm not sure exactly how that home was built, but it sounds like the wrong kind. The best house for an earthquake is a timber-framed, wooden house. Such house wiggle in a quake. Masonry fractures and collapses.

When we experienced a 5.5 quake from many miles away, the light and dark lines in our oak floor were jiggling like anything.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: leeneia
Date: 18 Nov 16 - 09:59 PM

I looked it up. The epicenter for the quake that shook our house was about 350 miles away.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Donuel
Date: 19 Nov 16 - 04:57 AM

Fossil

The hardships and challenges must b getting dire now.
Let me collectively apologize for the usual gang of idiots.

The pictures I've seen of the upheaval there are shocking and never seen before.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Jack Campin
Date: 19 Nov 16 - 06:01 AM

Headline says it all:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86649485/neither-rain-nor-earthquake-will-stop-the-semen-getting-through


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Gurney
Date: 19 Nov 16 - 04:27 PM

Leeneia, timber-framed houses will also float, providing that they have lightweight cladding and roofs. I've seen newsreel footage of them being carried downstream in the floods, with the occupants waving from holes they've made in the shingles..... Landslides pushed them off the foundations.

Waving for help, not with glee, naturally.
Impressive big houses, too.

They do, however, burn very thoroughly. As the racing fraternity say, it is 'horses for courses.'


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 19 Nov 16 - 06:00 PM

Jack, Campi Flegrei is a caldera centred on the town Pozzuoli, containing about 24 craters which are mostly underwater in the Gulf of Pozzuoli. It's only about nine miles across, so most of the Bay of Naples, including Naples, Vesuvius and Pompei, is outside it, lively though that area is.

The Bay of Naples, from Sorrento right round to Pozzuoli and beyond, containing the gorgeous islands of Ischia and Procida, which belong to the Campi Flegrei, and Capri, which doesn't, is my very favourite piece of Planet Earth. Not least because you can nip round the Sorrentine Peninsula to the Amalfi Coast...


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: robomatic
Date: 19 Nov 16 - 10:22 PM

Dear Fossil:

Having visited New Zealand a couple of times (Both Islands) I have been aware of your recent shakes, but your posts have given more life to them in my imagination. I feel great sympathy both for the great people I know Kiwis to be, and also because I've lived in the San Francisco area and now live in Anchorage. We're all on the Pacific Rim and know that it's a matter of when, not if.

I hope the U.S. is doing its bit to help out your people and country.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Mr Red
Date: 21 Nov 16 - 10:22 AM

My niece in Hawkes Bay spent the weekend making up food parcels for the Salvation Army to distribute. She is a food technologist at Watties (now part of Heinz). The food company make ready meals but to make enough in a short time they invited volunteers and split into teams and had competitions to see who could make more in the time.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Donuel
Date: 21 Nov 16 - 04:28 PM

TSUNAMI WARNING FROM NEW FUKASHIMA QUAKE.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 21 Nov 16 - 04:35 PM

There's been a 7.3 shake under the sea off Fukushima at quite a shallow depth. Restless Earth these days, eh?


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Mr Red
Date: 21 Nov 16 - 06:44 PM

Of course ya can't blame the moon. !-)

I read sometime ago about research that posed the question about global warming affecting earthquakes. Something to do with making the crust less brittle, bit like (analogy warning) toffee. We are only talking about (average) 0.5 degrees, but then on what scale? Certainly Britain is rising in the north and sinking in the south due to rebound, as the ice that melted removed megatons off the higher latitudes and with rock it takes a long time. Rock is bendy on global scales, and more bendy as temperatures rise. Try bending a block of toffee and see the cracks appear, at certain temperatures.
Of course not all scientists agree about earthquakes being more numerous with global warming, but someone has done the stats and comes to that conclusion.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 21 Nov 16 - 07:36 PM

Yeah well hot air rises, and those Scot Nats...


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Donuel
Date: 21 Nov 16 - 07:37 PM

I was turning five in Denver CO. We had passed a bill banning chemical nerve gas weapons and disposal was decided to inject it deep in the earth around Colorado Springs. Burning was too toxic. In as little as 6 months later the Metro area began to have small earthquakes and continued for years through the end of the nerve gas disposal project.

Fracking is a means to create the same type of quakes 40 years later. Instead of calling it Fracking quakes, the industry calls it waste water disposal events.

This is one form of Earthquakes we can ascertain the cause and guarantee predictive results.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: leeneia
Date: 21 Nov 16 - 08:56 PM

The only news coverage I could find on the Fukushima quake was on CNN. After many hours they have no reports of deaths or any pictures of damage. Apparently the quake wasn't much.

Clearly people should be careful of tsunamis, of course.

Since they can't scare anybody with today's quake, they rehash the 2011 quake instead.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 21 Nov 16 - 09:08 PM

Well it was under the sea a good few miles out. As long as it was the wrong sort of shake to generate a big tsunami, it's all right. It was a 7.3, so quite hefty.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 21 Nov 16 - 09:13 PM

I use a free app called iEarthquake lite which alerts me to such things. You can control how the app informs you of what's going on. There are probably others too.


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: leeneia
Date: 23 Nov 16 - 10:11 AM

Here's a link to a New Yorker article on the topic of earthquakes in New Zealand. The tectonics of New Zealand are unusual.

http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/new-zealands-tectonic-dragon-awakens


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Iains
Date: 23 Nov 16 - 11:29 AM

Mr Red
you may find this link interesting. Climate change and potential geological impact.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xndhx7KpSU0


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Subject: RE: BS: Just when it couldn't get any worse-Earthquake
From: Mr Red
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 07:16 AM

Wednesday BBC Four 8pm (GMT)
"10 Things You Didn't Know About Earthquakes"
BBC page on upcoming prog then on iPlayer.

Should be interesting in this context.

And thankyou Iains. I am more scared by Global Warming than I ever was. 15cm seasonal sea level rise in Alsaka correlates with biannual predictable seasonal eruptions of one noted volcano. Tides are much higher than that, even though most sea level talk was of a much slower rate of change.
I still adhere to the analogy of friction and particularly stiction cf tidal friction. clue's in the name.


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