BS: Post Brexit life in the UK

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 29 Jul 18 - 05:36 AM

According to the Sunday Times, the government has drawn up plans for the army to deliver food, fuel and medicine in the event of no deal.

The reason I think there will be a deal is that the UK is now likely to concede almost everything apart from some window dressing (to be agreed). With pragmatists in charge of the negotiations rather than true believers, the chances of the deal breaking down for ideological reasons are lower.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 29 Jul 18 - 04:40 AM

DMcG,
That does not necessarily mean government issued booklets, and almost certainly would not

So no government imposed rationing.
Thank you for making that clear.

To be honest, I now think it more likely we will get a deal, and so the question of stockpiling is perhaps less important.

This is the good news Rag keeps asking for. No rationing, no stockpiling and a deal seems likely even to you Dave.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 29 Jul 18 - 04:21 AM

" It is no simple matter to rework sources and delivery paths."
Quite possibly true. But as said elswhere, it is the function of government to plan for all eventualities. The time frame for seeking alternative sources and routings has existed since the referendum result was known. There should be no excuse for not achieving a painless transition unless the plans contain undetected errors.
The recent scare stories about possible medicine shortages is really more a case of EU pricing structure and a a new regulatory system within the EU taking place in 2018. Brexit is merely the icing on the cake and heavily rationed icing at that!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 29 Jul 18 - 02:45 AM

When I first mentioned rationimg I did so simply saying if you are trying to address a mismatch between supply and demand you can do so at the supply end by stockpiling or the demand end by rationing. That does not necessarily mean government issued booklets, and almost certainly would not because of the popitical cost. But that does not mean there would not be rationing. For example when Tescos limited people to two lettuces at a time on Feb 2017 the Independent actually uaed the word 'rationing'and I dont think many objected or thought the word inappropriate. It is, I think, quite likely supermarkets will impose that sort of rationing for "the duration'. Some people seem to think will just be a few days at most
But it aeems at least possible it is far longer to me. It is no simple matter to rework sources and delivery paths.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 07:39 PM

And that has what exactly to do with Nigel's accidental solecism, Iains? :-)

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 05:56 PM

He is also a pompous oaf!
        Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 06 Dec 17 - 05:17 PM
"you appear to have forgotten that the job of dictionaries is to reflect, not to judge. A dictionary can declare that a term has become so commonly used that it's become "standard." But that doesn't mean that those of us who want to preserve nuance have to accept it. You are perfectly free to use the word "irregardless." It's a word because people use it as a word. But it isn't a word you'll ever hear me using. Hopefully, you neither. Your dictionary doesn't say that "razed to the ground" is "fine." It says that the term is in common use and, non-judgementally, calls it standard English. But dictionaries are never arbiters. That isn't their job. Worth remembering by those whose last resort is to a book that is merely the work of a fallible human replete with his own idiosyncrasies. I've explained what "raze" means. Why not do as I did - resort not just to dictionaries (I did) but also to books specialising in the use of English (I have four). Not one supports your defence of the deliberate degradation of a perfectly good word.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 05:01 PM

"This American use of alternate is still regarded as incorrect by many people in Britain."

You said it, Nige. Remind me - which side of the pond do you live on?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 04:12 PM

From: Steve Shaw
"As I thought I had made clear, I am in favour of words which can be used which convey clearly an individual meaning."
But I see you're fine with the owld muddle between "alternative" and "alternate..."
The biter bit...

And:
From: David Carter (UK)
Steve pointed out Nigel's error already, but people who do not know the difference between alternate and alternative really annoy me. One or two TV presenters are guilty of this.

As Steve Shaw seems happy (most of the time) to play fast-and-loose with the English language, but considers himself an expert (a "Well-educated scientist"). I'm surprised that he's unaware that the US usage of 'alternate' is slowly becoming accepted in English.

According to Oxford dictionaries (who I would trust more than Steve Shaw):
In American usage, however, alternate can also be used to mean ‘available as another choice’, for example:
An alternate plan called for construction to begin immediately rather than waiting for spring.
This American use of alternate is still regarded as incorrect by many people in Britain.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 02:11 PM

Rag, if your facts were right they would be doing that now.
Dublin to Cherbourg for a 17m artic by Irish Ferries is £949 sterling one way and takes 19 hours.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 01:31 PM

Or even worse:


https://www.farmersjournal.ie/dairy-and-beef-exports-could-fall-by-76-and-53-in-hard-brexit-347058

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 01:28 PM

Raggy you are concentrating on the supply lines. It would be more beneficial to hunt for the new destinations for said irish supplies.
If there will be potential problems for imports, the loss of the major destination for agricultural output will be fa more of a headache.
(According to some reports 50% goes to the UK)

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 12:57 PM

The cost of driving an artic from Holyhead to Hull the nearest port for onward traffic to the EU is approx 150 pounds (sterling) the cost on the return journey will be the same. So unless the ferry companies charge more than 300 pounds (sterling) for a longer sea journey there will likely be little financial impact for the freighters.

And before anyone asks, the time differences will make not a great impact either. you still have to pay a driver whether he/she is driving or sitting on a ferry, this in conjuction with less wear and tear on the wagon, less time spent at a port of entry (Iains the EU will gear up for this) the new ferries may well be of benefit to Ireland.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 11:55 AM

I am sure Iains that you are aware that the Irish government is already making preparartion for many possible scenarios, including a "no deal" situation. Recruiting staff for border checks etc.

I am not aware that the UK government is doing the same.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 11:02 AM

The Irish grocery sector could be the hardest hit from Brexit with more than two-thirds of products on Irish supermarket shelves either manufactured in the UK or imported through Britain. Also more than half of the imported materials used by Irish-owned firms to produce final products are sourced in the UK.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 10:55 AM

As discussed previously Irish ferry movements are almost entirely to the UK with the exception of a weekly sailing to France and Spain. This may well change after Brexit but still leaves Ireland with a problem of finding alternative markets for agricultural products for which the UK provides the dominant share. Also the high level of import protection of the common market has led to a rise in prices of basic agricultural products far above the level of prices on the world market. This adds further difficulty to finding alternative markets outside the EU for Ireland, and also explains why the UK could cut deals to reduce food prices.A definite plus for brexit.

Also Irish threats about airspace could be immediately countered by impeding irish trucking.Dublin’s strategic problem is that London’s hard-line approach to leaving the EU and its customs union is now exploding Britain’s status as a reliable commercial land bridge. Irish food merchants and hauliers are being confronted with the prospect of journey times tripling and painful logjams for customs clearance in ill-equipped ports that will prove lethal to their profit margins.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 10:11 AM

with the subsequent loss of revenue to the UK of course.

The trucks do not even buy fuel on their way through.
They use our roads for free.
By sea, their journey time will more than double, with the subsequent increase in costs of course.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 09:55 AM

My point being Iains is that the current vessels can cope with the currect freight through the UK and onwards to the EU. The new vessels can be directed to EU ports if and when push comes to shove, missing out the UK entirely, with the subsequent loss of revenue to the UK of course.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 09:22 AM

There are of course other shipping companies.

But not an overabundance of spare capacity ferries.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 08:42 AM

Irish Ferries will have a new ship in the fleet, either later this year or early next year.

The current Dublin/Holyhead ship the MV Ulysses will be transferred to a continental route.

When lauched in 2001 the Ulysses was the largest ro-ro ferry in the world capable of transporting 241 articluated trucks and trailers on each journey.

Irish ferries have said the new ship MV W B Yeats is larger than the current ferry and have on order a further ship of similar size.

There are of course other shipping companies.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 08:14 AM

Of course this set of figures pays no heed to the overwhelming majority of Irish exports trans-shipped through the UK, or the amount of Irish haulage business kept afloat by this.

For Germany:

39,421 $million imports from UK
4% imports from UK
94,076 $million exports to UK
7% exports to uk

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 08:01 AM

Oh dear. No deal would be a disaster for Ireland.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 07:50 AM

Ireland will be hurt seriously by no deal.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/agribusiness-and-food/brexit-food-and-drink-exports-still-heavily-reliant-on-uk-1.3350661


As will Germany the single biggest EU exporter to the UK

Ireland:
"The proportion of food and live animal exports to the UK increased to 46% in 2015 from 38% in 2000, while exports in manufactured goods rose to 55% of the sectors' total exports from 43% over the same time.

Irish agri-food would face some of the highest tariffs if the EU-registered World Trade Organisation tariff schedule was applied to EU-UK trade should Britain leave under a so-called "Hard Brexit" in 2019

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 07:23 AM

And food will become cheaper so the poor can eat a little better, though not feasting to your gourmet standards obviously.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 07:09 AM

Grr. A victim of the spellchecker for the second day running. Stir it all together, not altogether. And for the benefit of Iains, who is so obsessed with finding trouble that he can't follow threads, I corrected "legalise" (another spellchecker casualty) extremely rapidly yesterday. I'll be stockpiling basmati and risotto rice today. My pasta cupboard is full and I have a dozen or more tins of peeled plum toms. Olive oil from Tuscany, four bottles, is good for several years. Top quality balsamic, ten years at least. I'll be feasting gourmet-style while foolish virgins are scraping baked beans from rusty tins!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 06:50 AM

Rationing was in place because of the war, and not lifted until long afterwards as you say. That is not the same as introducing it in peacetime, which would be politically difficult.

And totally unnecessary! Why bring up such an irrelevant issue which no-one has ever mentioned as being the remotest possibility?

Stockpiling would only be to cover a possible temporary shortage of a few days while importers readjust their suppliers, and is only being considered as a precaution unlikely to be needed at all.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 05:43 AM

"And I suppose you didn't think that post needed proofreading. Heheh."

Another stunning contribution from Shaw. Which persona were you masquerading under to generate the gem above? The ex teach, the well educated scientist................,the resident.....?

Remember this contribution from yourself yesterday?
So we're not all professors of English here, nor are we writing legalise. What's more, it's possible to be in a hurry and post with insufficient proofreading,

What a buffoon!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 05:33 AM

Prepacked cheddar cheese is still good at least six months past its use-by date. I recommend Wookey Hole cave-aged. You can even freeze it. Creme fraiche will keep for months unopened. For two people, mix a good-quality jar of tuna in olive oil (drained) (keeps for at least four years) with five dessertspoons of creme fraiche, a handful of capers (which keep for years unopened) some salt (keeps for hundreds of millions of years), freshly-ground pepper (two years), a chopped clove of garlic and a handful of chopped fresh parsley (you should be growing the garlic and parsley yourself). Mix it all together then boil 250g of short pasta (keeps for two or three years). Salty water of course. Drain the pasta retaining a bit of the cooking water. Add to the tuna mix and stir it altogether with a bit of pasta water. Grate Parmesan on top (keeps for six months, longer if unwrapped). There. Not a stockpiled tin in sight.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 05:05 AM

That is a bit different, Iains. Rationing was in place because of the war, and not lifted until long afterwards as you say. That is not the same as introducing it in peacetime, which would be politically difficult.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 04:20 AM

DMg Peacetime rationing has occurred. Post WW2 it was lifted in 1954.
How you define stockpile is a moveable feast, but I would take it at it's broadest to mean additional supplies organised in addition to what is already in the supply chain. Fuel is not imported from the EU to the UK, other than polish coal. So I really see no need for a rationing scenario to be explored. The UK tank farms and pipelines contain a strategic reserve anyway, to cover short term interruptions, should they occur.
I think the conversation is rather loosing track. We are talking a possible hiatus in EU trade, not an embargo policed by the UN. Even shipping from New Zealand or the US Pacific coast only takes around 7 weeks to UK ports. There may be a need to stockpile certain items as a precautionary measure in case alternative plans contain flaws.Personally I think the drama is vastly overstated. My feeling is that foodprices in the UK would fall unless the high agricultural subsidies are continued for UK farmers(€3 billion)
Our departure will certainly leave the CAP with a major funding shortfall and hasten it's very necessary reform.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 04:18 AM

BBC,"On energy, the latest White Paper recommits the government to preserve the Single Electricity Market in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. "

The Republic needs that too.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: The Sandman
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 04:17 AM

Ireland needs to start thinking more about alternative forms of electricity ,the way water is wasted in ireland is scandalous, incompetent politicians seem to be every where. for the UK TO HAVE GIVEN A REFERENDUM WITHOUT ANY PLAN WAS IRRESPONSIBLE.
i predict sterling will fall and hard times for people in the uk and also irelads ,i hope i am wrong, it is possible we may see the eventual disintegration of the european empire[who knows], it is very difficult to know what is going to happen, apart from those with not much will have even less.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 04:03 AM

Just this once, as it is a sensible question, Keith, I will respond. I should have said, 'ensuring an adequate fuel supply' rather than put that in stockpiling, I accept that.

Look at the position in Ireland of electricity supply to see why fuel is an issue.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 03:54 AM

. Fuel will presumably be a priority

Why? Apart from smuggled red diesel from Ireland it mostly comes from outside EU, and does not require customs checks anyway.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 03:51 AM

Steve pointed out Nigel's error already, but people who do not know the difference between alternate and alternative really annoy me. One or two TV presenters are guilty of this.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 03:39 AM

Let me get back to this stockpiling question. To be honest, I now think it more likely we will get a deal, and so the question of stockpiling is perhaps less important. But it would arise if we have a no deal.

So, Iain's, you think everyone sensible should stockpile rather than rely on the government. I agree to some extent: I would certainly have doubts about the ability of this government to organise it adequately.

But the function of a stockpile is really to allow for fluctuations in the supply without needing to alter demand. So that immediately raises the question how long does the stockpiling (supplement) have to last? Is it days, weeks, months or years? And what should it cover? At the low end of stockpiling we have a few more tins. When to get to the wildly-over-the-top (I hope). You are in full survivalist mode with stockpiles of water, fuel, alternative cooking arrangements and whatever.

What are you considering stockpiling and to cover how long a period?


By its nature, stockpiling, whether by individuals or governments, is limited: to actually address a long term problem you may have to address the demand side. That is rationing. Now, I doubt if any government could be elected for many decades if it introduced rationing in peace time, so the chances are exceedingly low. Nevertheless, it is the logical consequence of long term supply problems if they occur.


Even if the government does make stockpiling work effectively, it is likely that it will only cover a subset of goods. Fuel will presumably be a priority and staple foods, but not the less essential ones. We could easily find the range of goods on offer reduced significantly.

As far as we can tell so far, the government plan is not to stockpile to to persuade businesses to do the stockpiling of their own goods. I think that very problematic, but perhaps that's for another post.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 28 Jul 18 - 02:56 AM

Disagree to your hearts content.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 27 Jul 18 - 06:41 PM

And I suppose you didn't think that post needed proofreading. Heheh.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 27 Jul 18 - 06:37 PM

"People say things and put things in different ways and everyone knows what they mean. Those who chose to use others choice of language as a weapon, quite rightly, have the piss taken out of them and soon find that no one will engage with them. You are getting very close, Nigel."

I am afraid I do not agree with you. There are no people posting here that are not capable of checking facts, or phrasing their postings with a minimum of ambiguity.
There is no excuse for making statements that are demonstrably untrue, or for trying to put forward opinions as fact. Trying to wriggle away from responsibility by claiming not to be a lawyer, so sloppy presentation is quite OK, is a total cop out.
I always endeavour to be clear as to whether I am quoting others, stating facts,or offering opinions. I could not care what opinion a   poster may hold, but inaccuracy and opinion trying to masquerade as fact do provoke a reaction. People may well say things in different ways but that is no excuse for ambiguity that leads to argument.
I can only react to what people say, it is the responsibility of the author to say what they mean.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 27 Jul 18 - 04:59 PM

"As I thought I had made clear, I am in favour of words which can be used which convey clearly an individual meaning."

But I see you're fine with the owld muddle between "alternative" and "alternate..."

The biter bit...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 27 Jul 18 - 02:47 PM

I hate to put this up again as the thread on it got closed but this is a discussion forum, not a debating society. There are no formal rules. It is like a bunch of people having a chat down the pub. People say things and put things in different ways and everyone knows what they mean. Those who chose to use others choice of language as a weapon, quite rightly, have the piss taken out of them and soon find that no one will engage with them. You are getting very close, Nigel.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 27 Jul 18 - 02:40 PM

From: DMcG - PM
Date: 27 Jul 18 - 09:41 AM
So you are opposed to the term Brexit when it should be UKexit?

Not at all. It is a neologism which has been given a single meaning, and which has widespread usage. Nobody has seriously suggested either an alternate term to use, or an alternate meaning.
Also, as there was no existing term which quite covered the required meaning, a new word was needed.

As I thought I had made clear, I am in favour of words which can be used which convey clearly an individual meaning.

Unfortunately, if we allowed Michel Barnier to dictate, and accepted a border down the Irish Sea, Brexit could become a better description than UKexit.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 Jul 18 - 02:26 PM

I've been scrumping manys a time iains, I've also been in fields after a harvest to collect what was left behind. I've struggled at time to buy a loaf of bread and a tin of beans.

These are not actions I would expect from the government of a very weathly (for some) nation.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 27 Jul 18 - 02:16 PM

No Raggy. The link below is the bees knees

http://www.subbrit.org.uk/rsg/features/sfs/file_14.htm

You might have to learn how to go scrumping!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 27 Jul 18 - 02:00 PM

A government is supposed to plan for all eventualities. No one likes to stockpile anymore because of cost and the aggravation of ensuring adequate turnover. But if no deal results, both sides end up with bruises
The EU negotiators appear totally oblivious to this. It appears to me the EU is rushing headlong to cut off its nose to spite its face. If that is their negotiating tactic then obviously we need to plan for it.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 Jul 18 - 01:55 PM

It is interesting that one of your links is relevant in a post nuclear holocaust situation ...............

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 Jul 18 - 01:52 PM

Iains, ask yourself this.

Why are the government NOW asking for stockpiles to be built up.

We all make provisions for a rainy day (if we can afford to) this is over and above the usual provisions.

Just ask yourself why, and why now in particular.

I think you know the answer but would prefer to be in denial, and being in a state of denial is something I'm increasing ascribing to those who still support Brexit.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 27 Jul 18 - 01:29 PM

Waitrose baked beans are £1.10 for a four-pack and are very nice.

Shit. Why am I telling you this?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 27 Jul 18 - 01:27 PM

Situation at end of cold war.


http://www.subbrit.org.uk/rsg/features/food/

An indication of recent government thinking.

https://www.food.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/document/FINAL_FFS_Report-June-2014.pdf

I imagine a hard brexit would add a few more bells and whistles to the above.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 27 Jul 18 - 01:08 PM

Raggytash if anyone had a grain of sense they would stockpile necessities in case of any event that destroyed supply chains. It may be very clever to have just in time deliveries and no doubt has accountants drooling, but just consider how long those supply chains are and also   how vulnerable.
A forecast of leaves on the line, or a light snowfall in 6 months time has the supermarkets out of bread and milk in an instant. Any kind of real crisis would cause havoc. I believe Maggie wound down emergency stockpiles with the ending of the cold war. A total embargo would have us out of fuel and food in less than a month I believe. If the average person has a weeks supply of food I would be surprised.
You may put your trust in government, I prefer tin cans.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 Jul 18 - 12:44 PM

I would consider they are avoiding to the stockpiling news because like any rational person they realise the serious implications for the future health of the country and have no answer. I would go further and suggest that even they are now having doubts about the UK leaving the EU and the damage that may be inflicted upon it.