BS: Post Brexit life in the UK

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 01:12 PM

And Boris's bus forecast that the NHS would be getting £350 million a week. Nah, it was more than a forecast. It was a promise.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 01:17 PM

Were I a betting man I would not put money on any of their forecasts

As is your right, of course. But that gives you two alternatives. Either you are happy to proceed into the future with your eyes tight shut and just hoping it turns out ok, or you use some other way of making a prediction. And what is that? Now, I would set some store by well thought out qualitative analyses - I don't insist on quantative. But DExEU hasn't produced these either. So we are left with 'gut feel', I think. Which I regard as inadequate.

I very much doubt, by the way, that these predictions are quite as has been reported. It is far more likely that there are confidence intervals, margins of error analysis and so on, but these are too dry for newspapers (and many MPs) to puzzle over.

In my ideal world, the model would be published, not just the results, so that it could be peer reviewed, and things that were not examined by interested parties. For example all the results assume we get a beneficial trade deal with the US. There are assumptions around this - do we get one at all, and if we do when? for example - which anyone interested enough could investigate. I'm not holding my breath on this one: it will probably be several decades before things like that are released as a matter of course.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 06:14 PM

Two tweets today from Tory MP Phillip Lee following the leak of the brexit scenarios report:

But if these figures turn out to be anywhere near right, there would be a serious question over whether a government could legitimately lead a country along a path that the evidence and rational consideration indicate would be damaging. This shows the PM's challenge...

The PM has been dealt some tough cards and I support her mission to make the best of them. It's time for evidence, not dogma, to show the way. We must act for our country's best interests, not ideology & populism, or history will judge us harshly. Our country deserves no less.

The voice of sanity, from a Tory too. The government leading us down a path that is clearly damaging is irrational, and it's high time that our MPs stopped worrying about short-term party interests and ideology and spoke out in the long-term interests of generations to come. Brexit is simply insane.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 06:17 PM

I'll do thst again, hopefully with the italicising fixed:

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 06:14 PM

Two tweets today from Tory MP Phillip Lee following the leak of the brexit scenarios report:

But if these figures turn out to be anywhere near right, there would be a serious question over whether a government could legitimately lead a country along a path that the evidence and rational consideration indicate would be damaging. This shows the PM's challenge...

The PM has been dealt some tough cards and I support her mission to make the best of them. It's time for evidence, not dogma, to show the way. We must act for our country's best interests, not ideology & populism, or history will judge us harshly. Our country deserves no less.

The voice of sanity, from a Tory too. The government leading us down a path that is clearly damaging is irrational, and it's high time that our MPs stopped worrying about short-term party interests and ideology and spoke out in the long-term interests of generations to come. Brexit is simply insane.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 06:18 PM

Well, you get it... :-(

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 31 Jan 18 - 02:38 AM

But, but, but....the Unicorns! What would happen to the Unicorns that Keefie, Teribus, Nigs, and Boo-Bad believe are on their way?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 31 Jan 18 - 04:14 AM

How was the curry, Steve?

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 31 Jan 18 - 05:50 AM

I have daffodils blooming in my garden. The first appeared one week ago.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 31 Jan 18 - 05:51 AM

Stopped one chilli short of making it a ring-burner as I have to be out and about today. It was a Spice Tailor Fiery Goan in the end with chicken and coconut cream. Delicious!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 31 Jan 18 - 05:55 AM

We've had daffs round here since late November. I blame Thatcher.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 31 Jan 18 - 06:05 AM

Tis a fine illustration of the power and the glory of Conservatiasm!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 31 Jan 18 - 06:11 AM

What's that? Tory orgasms?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 31 Jan 18 - 07:34 AM

In the Lords today and reported by the BBC:

"Baroness Northover say's it is appropriate that the Lords who've been confronting the govt on Henry VIII powers are called Hope, Judge and Pannick"

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 31 Jan 18 - 09:32 AM

EU rejects banks proposals for free trade

Anyone surprised?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 31 Jan 18 - 09:47 AM

No. And this could change everything if it's true.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Greg F.
Date: 31 Jan 18 - 12:05 PM

Conservatiasm!

Shouldn't that me Conservamiasm?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: SPB-Cooperator
Date: 01 Feb 18 - 03:43 PM

Today May has proved that the tory party and the lowlife who vote for them are racist.

According to the BBC online news May wants compusory regoistration for all EU nationals that come to UK after March 2019, with conditions applied with regards to right to remain in the Uk. As my partner (of more than 15 years)will no longer have an automatic right to live with me, then unless this applies to every partnership with UK nationals as well as EU nationals everyone who still supports brexit is a racist hypocrit. There is no room for digisting low life like that in decent society.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 01 Feb 18 - 03:47 PM

Extradition refused becausee of Brexit

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 01 Feb 18 - 04:39 PM

Sorry to hear that, co-ordinator. We can only hope it doesn't end up quite as you fear. It's all very well people talking about abstractions like sovereignty and nationhood and GDP but so often that is not translated into the effect it has on real people's lives.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 02 Feb 18 - 09:42 AM

Today May has proved that the tory party and the lowlife who vote for them are racist.

According to the BBC online news May wants compusory regoistration for all EU nationals that come to UK after March 2019, with conditions applied with regards to right to remain in the Uk. As my partner (of more than 15 years)will no longer have an automatic right to live with me, then unless this applies to every partnership with UK nationals as well as EU nationals everyone who still supports brexit is a racist hypocrit. There is no room for digisting low life like that in decent society.

How is this 'racist'?
It will apply to those from the EU who do not currently reside in the UK, irrespective of race or ethnicity.

The 'race card' is too easily played without considering whether it actually corresponds to the question at hand.

I will probably now be branded a 'racist' for trying to keep the discussion honest. As I know I'm not, it won't really bother me.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: bobad
Date: 02 Feb 18 - 10:03 AM

What race are Europeans and how does that differ with UK'ers - inquiring minds would like to know.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 02 Feb 18 - 10:10 AM

Extradition refused becausee of Brexit

Interesting link. Does this mean that the UK should also be refusing to allow any extradition from UK to other EU states if proceedings/sentence would last beyond March 2019?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 02 Feb 18 - 11:43 AM

Extradition refused because of Brexit 

Interesting link. Does this mean that the UK should also be refusing to allow any extradition from UK to other EU states if proceedings/sentence would last beyond March 2019?

Perhaps. But more to the point it demonstrates the assurances I was getting that all the Europol and similar cooperation would just continue because it was in everyone's interest was, unsurprisingly, too simple.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 02 Feb 18 - 11:56 AM

But to answer your question directly: the amendments to the withdrawal bill deliberately excluded the EU social rights. So no EU can be certain of what prisoners rights will be once we leave. They can guess, of course, but there is no legal assurance and that is what is needed. Hence an EU to UK extradition is legally challengeable.

In thw othwr direction the rights are known, so I doubt if a legal challenge would aucceed.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 02 Feb 18 - 01:26 PM

I do not recall too many squawking about human rights when extraordinary rendition was occurring through EU airfields en route to Guantanamo Bay and a healthy diet of waterboarding. The UK is a signatory to the UN declaration of human rights. Being able to mount a legal challenge by no means guarantees victory.
Just another brexit bashing device!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 02 Feb 18 - 07:48 PM

There was plenty of squawking, aka outrage expressed, when those practices became known, I assure you.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 03 Feb 18 - 04:12 AM

While you are right Steve, and Iains may be right in that he says he doesn't remember it - a very different thing from it occurring - it is totally off the point.

A legal hole exists. It is there and has been confirmed by the Ireland Supreme Court, whether you voted leave, remain or didn't vote at all. Everyone who is accused of a crime and has managed to get to anywhere in the EU may or may not be able to exploit it successfully, but they all have the opportunity and all of their lawyers have the legal duty to try if it is appropriate.

So the sensible thing to do is not to bring in irrelevancies like Guantanamo, or (to following the childish animal noises theme) bleat about 'bashing brexit' but to see what can be done to close it.

The thing that makes us most vulnerable to exploitation of this loophole is to pretend it is just some anti-brexit plot and so refuse to accept it exists.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 03 Feb 18 - 07:45 AM

It is sort of off the point, I agree, but he did try to turn that wrongdoing into grist for his pro-brexit mill. I suppose we could blame the EU for the Camorra and Mafia while we're at it. I mean, why not?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 04 Feb 18 - 07:21 AM

This is from a comment in the Guardian under an article by Nick Cohen ("Rest assured, when Brexit bombs it won't be the fault of the Tory right") by someone calling themselves Driscoll:

...The preparatory work for "scapegoating" has been underway since early 2017 by Brexiteers...the people in the frame are judges;pro remain MPs in all parties; private individuals who are pro-Remain and have by their actions derailed the smooth hard Brexit and desired lack of parliamentary involvement in both triggering Article 50 initially and negotiations desired by Brexiteers in the Tory party; the media especially the BBC and now the civil service and Treasury. Finally not forgetting Corbyn,Clegg,Sturgeon et al and the LibDEms,Labour and SNP Apparently the establishment and anybody that disagrees with their view generally in fact such is the paranoia of the Brexiteers over a sell out of Brexit which of course if they were in charge would be as smooth as anything,simple, having your cake and eating it and of course a munificent bounty of cash for the NHS.

In the 1920's and 1930's the nazis claimed that Germany was stabbed in the back by people in Germany (called "November Criminals" in all of Goebbels propaganda) by refusing the army Generals their support to wage successful war against the allies when it was the Generals that pleaded with the government to sue for an armistice but in nazi-speak victory was snatched from the Generals hands by traitorous people back home in Germany of course...

Here's a section of tbe Cohen article that the above was a reaction to:

The Right does not want British institutions to take back control from the EU. It wants to take control of British institutions. Understand its raging ambition and you will understand why self-proclaimed Conservatives are so anxious to destroy.

Patriots who shout about their love of country daily announce their hatred of every British principle that might constrain them. The rule of law and sovereignty of parliament? The Mail echoed every totalitarian movement since the Jacobins and denounced judges as "enemies of the people" for ruling that Brexit couldn't be triggered without the approval of parliament. Academic freedom? A government whip demanded universities tell him what lecturers were teaching about Brexit. The right of MPs to follow their conscience? Liberal Tories received death threats after the Telegraph called them "mutineers" for not obeying orders and thinking for themselves. Now the civil service is having its ethics besmirched and neutrality threatened. Jacob Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker accused it of plotting to undermine Brexit by producing needlessly pessimistic forecasts. The lie was so demonstrably false even Baker had to apologise. Tellingly, Rees-Mogg did not. Unnervingly, he may be our next prime minister.

You do not have to know much history to recognise a stab-in-the-back myth in the making. German militarists and fascists explained away defeat in the First World War with the dolchstosslegende: the German armies had not been defeated by their enemies in France but by communists, Jews and pacifists at home. So Brexit will not be defeated because the Tory right sold the British a fantasy but because judges, civil servants, saboteurs and mutineers subverted a glorious victory.

We need to be very vigilant.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Greg F.
Date: 04 Feb 18 - 06:29 PM

Iains may be right in that he says he doesn't remember it

There is quite a bit that Inanes seems- selectively- unable to recall.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 04 Feb 18 - 07:19 PM

From: DMcG - PM
Date: 02 Feb 18 - 11:56 AM

But to answer your question directly: the amendments to the withdrawal bill deliberately excluded the EU social rights. So no EU can be certain of what prisoners rights will be once we leave. They can guess, of course, but there is no legal assurance and that is what is needed. Hence an EU to UK extradition is legally challengeable.

In thw othwr direction the rights are known, so I doubt if a legal challenge would aucceed.

Do I take it that the sentence in bold above is intended to be read as "The EU cannot be certain what prisoners' rights will be"? As I'm having problems understanding exactly what argument you're trying to make.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 05 Feb 18 - 02:17 AM

Is it the absence of the apostrophe that is worrying you, Nigel?

I had originally intended to write "No EU country" but omitted the 'country'. If that makes it clearer for you, all well and good.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 05 Feb 18 - 03:40 AM

No, the missing apostrophe wasn't causing a problem. It was the missing word which made the sentence nonsense.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 05 Feb 18 - 03:45 AM

Glad that is cleared up, then.

Any thoughts about the substance of the post?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: SPB-Cooperator
Date: 05 Feb 18 - 03:53 AM

"Interesting link. Does this mean that the UK should also be refusing to allow any extradition from UK to other EU states if proceedings/sentence would last beyond March 2019?

Perhaps. But more to the point it demonstrates the assurances I was getting that all the Europol and similar cooperation would just continue because it was in everyone's interest was, unsurprisingly, too simple. "

this is an area where there needs to be one single set of rules, then UK MUST obey EU27 to the letter without question, and have no say whatsoever on the policy and regulations. So much for sovereignty, huh? If decent people are no longer entitled to representation on issues like this, the idiots who voted Tory in 2015 should pay for a shadow European Parliament in the UK.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 05 Feb 18 - 04:36 AM

Glad that is cleared up, then.
Any thoughts about the substance of the post?

Yes, once we are out of Europe we need to consider the need for a new extradition treaty between UK & EU. Just one more thing to be added to the list of considerations. Not a 'deal-breaker' in itself, and a relatively minor matter. It might even get sorted out before we leave as part of the general negotiations.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 05 Feb 18 - 05:01 AM

To an extent I agree, Nigel. This is very much a case of "Identify a problem. Agree what needs to be done. Do it. End of issue."

There is no inherent need for it to be a deal breaker. As to whether it is a minor issue, well, perhaps not if the people to be extradited are accused of terrorism rather than fraud.

However, agreeing what needs to be done is not simple since the EU citizens want EU rights when extradicted, which will be tricky if that includes rights ordinary UK citizens don't have. So I don't see getting such an agreement as necessarily straightforward.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: peteglasgow
Date: 07 Feb 18 - 12:02 PM

with the news that our government would not necessarily rule out selling off part of our NHS to US medical vultures could anyone on here explain what are the main reasons anyone would vote for the conservative party these days? (i'm stressing voting for rather than voting against anyone - so no mention off JC or the labour party please) And just what is it that they are conserving these days? how can they be doing so well in the polls when they are completely unable to do anything competently these days? it's not all about brexit.....

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 07 Feb 18 - 01:31 PM

Dammed if I know. And despite your specifically asking for reasons FOR, rather than just against Labour, I suspect the 'against Labour' will be strong.

So, trying to be fair: all parties have good and bad, active and lazy, interested in the constituents and disdainful of them. So on the few occasions I have voted for 'Conservative' I haven't really: I have voted for a very specific person who happened to be Conservative.

When it comes to selling off the NHS, listen out for "free at the point of use" and the provider not mattering. Nonsense of course, the provider matters a great deal in terms of cost and effectiveness. What I think will happen is parts will be sold off to the US and elsewhere, while maintaining "free at the point of use." Then a gradual transformation - probably taking a decade or more - of the NHS into a funding organisation rather than a provider of treatment.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 07 Feb 18 - 03:36 PM

Could someone please link to an article in todays Guardian on the potential costs of a hard Brexit. The article in on page one and is entitled "Hard Brexit would cost Public Finances 80 Billion, says secret analysis.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 07 Feb 18 - 03:54 PM

Here it is

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 07 Feb 18 - 04:55 PM

But it doesn't matter because we will have 'taken are cuntry back', and Keefy, Nigs, and Teribians will have their unicorns.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 08 Feb 18 - 08:08 AM

Sorry Backwoodsman:
But it doesn't matter because we will have 'taken are cuntry back', and Keefy, Nigs, and Teribians will have their unicorns.

You appear to be the only one on here with a fixation on unicorns.

Would you like to consider actually making some sort of valid point in the discussion?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 08 Feb 18 - 08:41 AM

Don't worry, BWM, I understand the point and it is valid. For the benefit of those that do not understand an explanation may be required.

1. The pro Brexit team keep telling us of the benefits it will reap
2. Those benefits, as yet, seem to be mythical
3. Unicorns are also mythical

Get it?

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 08 Feb 18 - 09:05 AM

Myth and fantasy is a predilection of the remoaners. They also cunningly contrive to confuse forecasts with facts.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 08 Feb 18 - 09:09 AM

Well, Iains, I'd be happy to hear your forecasts based on more than hope.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 08 Feb 18 - 09:22 AM

Different language anyone?

Impact assessments by the countries leading economists = myth and fantasy

Anything based on a what Nigel Farage says will happen = fact

We are definitely two peoples separated by by a common tongue. I just hope that those who believe in Farage and unicorns will wake up before we all go to hell in a handcart.

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: peteglasgow
Date: 08 Feb 18 - 11:28 AM

what are the positive reasons for maintaining any faith in the tory government?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 08 Feb 18 - 11:43 AM

Nigs, as understanding the concept of irony is obviously not one of your talents, I'll explain in little words that you might understand.

Unicorns are mythical animals (mythical means 'fictitious').

The claims made by the BrexShit Buffoons, Bozo, Gove, and Farridge, are fictitious.

You believe their fictitious claims, ergo it is reasonable to assume you, Keefy, Teribians, etc. believe in unicorns.

Cold in Sheffield?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 08 Feb 18 - 11:47 AM

I do notice that not one comment has been made by any of the "opposition" on here with regard not only to the most recent link but to any of the previous links (I may have missed the odd one)

I've asked before does anyone have anything good news to report that has come out of Brexit