BS: Post Brexit life in the UK

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 10 Dec 17 - 02:16 AM

Time for a new topic: amendment 7

This, as I expect you all know, is to incorporate a "meaningful vote" on Brexit into the withdrawal bill. I am in two minds about it. As a matter of principle, Parliament should vote on whether the negotiated teams are acceptable. But I fear it will merely introduce uncertainty and make a hard Brexit more likely. It is to be expected that most people will dislike the deal for some reason - exit bill too high, not enough protection for workers, transition period too long or too short, of whatever. So thiis risks all those who have any objection at all into a single 'no' but giving no indication of what needs to be changed to get a 'yes'. (We have had this effect before when Blair attempted to reform the house of Lords. There was a majority for reducing the numbers but not for any specific amount so all the votes failed.)

So we could well end up rejecting the deal even though the majority agree with any one bit of it. This makes it crucial whether the effect of a 'no' votes is to crash to WTO rules, to cancel Brexit or to try for another deal. Which may or may not also have to go before Parliament.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 10 Dec 17 - 02:28 AM

Perhaps a worked example would make that clearer. Suppose a bill has clauses a, b and c.

Bill is so opposed to clause a that he will be vote against the bill, but likes b and c.
Ben likes clauses a and c, but b is a no-go
Little weed likes a and b, but will vote against because of c.

So in this situation each of a, b and c has a 2/3 majority but everyone votes down the bill.


That is the risk we are taking.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: peteglasgow
Date: 10 Dec 17 - 04:24 AM

It just isn't really going to happen unless as a good old british compromise that pleases no-one or annoys anyone much (apart from the far-right lunatic fringe who are always annoyed) The other - more british and more likely result is that we will all lose interest and quietly drop the idea as it's way more complicated than we thought. (we all have a PC but how many of us can use all the functions?) And despite recent events we are quite a polite lot really and would feel embarrassed to think we had put our neighbours out. like any family, there are a few shouty drunks but british common sense and laziness should stop any extreme madness. hopefully.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 10 Dec 17 - 07:44 AM

Rag,
No one has been proved wrong idiot because no one person said a hard border should happen.

All those posts I pasted said Brexit made a hard border inevitable.

I pmd you because you asked for stuff that I could not justify putting in the Damian Green thread because it was so trivial.

Steve,

Hmm. Could be wrong but I seem to recall you saying that no-one wanted a hard border except for the EU and Dublin, Keith...

I said they were threatening one, and that if there was to be one it would have to be them who constructed it.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Dec 17 - 08:34 AM

"All those posts I pasted said Brexit made a hard border inevitable"

Utter rubbish.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 10 Dec 17 - 08:36 AM

Nope. You said what I said you said.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Dec 17 - 08:40 AM

"I said they were threatening one, and that if there was to be one it would have to be them who constructed it"

Again utter rubbish.

Neither the EU or the Irish Government has EVER threatened a hard border.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 10 Dec 17 - 09:51 AM

From: Jim Carroll - PM
Date: 09 Dec 17 - 12:44 PM
"You have got none of that right."
"He was, however, present on the afternoon of 5 December, when Lloyd George gave the Irish delegates a powerful ultimatum. They must sign the treaty in its existing form - including the provisos for partition and allegiance to the Crown - or else quit and face a new war. After a few hours? consideration they agreed to sign, accepting the deal as the best available in the circumstances, and did so in the early hours of the next day."

Jim, as has been pointed out before, there would be no "New war". What was threatened was resumption of the existing war which was on hold. As The Irish National archives makes clear:
4 December
Discussion by both sides of the written Irish counter proposals.


5 December
A meeting is held between Lloyd George and Collins which discusses the proposed boundary commission in more detail.


6 December
An ultimatum is delivered by Lloyd George to the delegates in which they are faced with the option of either signing the text of the Treaty as it stands or refusing to sign and face the consequence of an immediate resumption of war.


The 'Articles of Agreement for a Treaty Between Great Britain and Ireland' are signed by both delegations at 2.15am.


8 December
De Valera issues a public statement that he cannot recommend acceptance of the Treaty. The Cabinet decides by 4 votes to 3 to recommend the Treaty to the Dail on 14 December.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Dec 17 - 09:55 AM

Gentlemen, if you wish to discuss the issues of almost 100 years ago please start a fresh thread. Thank you.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 10 Dec 17 - 10:03 AM

Count me out of this one Raggy - the last person I'd choose to discuss Ireland with is an English Tory, given their record of ethnic cleansing
Over and out on this one - it's been done to death anyway
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 10 Dec 17 - 01:07 PM

Rag,
"All those posts I pasted said Brexit made a hard border inevitable"
Utter rubbish.

They do. Show one that does not.

Steve,
Nope. You said what I said you said.

You have had time to check since you posted, "Could be wrong but I seem to recall you saying that no-one wanted a hard border except for the EU and Dublin, Keith..." so now it is a deliberate lie.
I never said that Dublin or EU wanted a hard border, just threatening.

That is why you do not back your claim with a quote. You know it is a lie.

Rag,
Neither the EU or the Irish Government has EVER threatened a hard border.

UK was clear it did not want or need one. It was the EU and Dublin who kept raising the threat of one even though it would be very bad for Ireland.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 10 Dec 17 - 01:11 PM

"UK was clear it did not want or need one"
Davis Davis has said that "the promise not to have a hard border is not legally binding but a statement of intent"
Methinks Brexit-man speaks with forked tongue
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Dec 17 - 01:14 PM

Please refer to my post on the Damien Green thread.

You're on your own.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 10 Dec 17 - 01:15 PM

For the less literate, if it suits Britain to have a hard border, that's what they will try to get
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 10 Dec 17 - 02:09 PM

"Could be wrong but I seem to recall you saying that no-one wanted a hard border except for the EU and Dublin, Keith..."

Seeming to recall and leaving myself open to being wrong (just call me Mr Self-Deprecating) can't be characterised as either a claim or a lie. It's just me musing, Keith. Anyway, truth will out. No more Wheatcroft moments for you, old chap.


(Can one troll a troll?)

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 10 Dec 17 - 02:57 PM

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 10 Dec 17 - 03:04 PM

LYING SHITBAGS
Let him drown in his own swill Steve
What he actually said about the Hard border was that Ireland and the EU were threatening to force it to spite Britain
Far worse and far mor succinct
"Why is IR/EU threatening that and why blame UK?"
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 11 Dec 17 - 04:48 AM

Jim,
For the less literate, if it suits Britain to have a hard border, that's what they will try to get

It does not. Neither does it suit Dublin or EU, but they continue to threaten it.

Steve,

Seeming to recall and leaving myself open to being wrong (just call me Mr Self-Deprecating) can't be characterised as either a claim or a lie

You were wrong then. Now you admit it. Thanks.
You came back next morning and confirmed your claim, making it a lie.

Jim,
What he actually said about the Hard border was that Ireland and the EU were threatening to force it to spite Britain

Yes. They said it would be inevitable if we leave, but it is not.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 11 Dec 17 - 07:21 AM

Were I the EU, I would be saying I wanted the UK to confirm the agreement is the non-negotiable basis of any trade talks. Without that, I would not agree to proceed to the next stage.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 11 Dec 17 - 07:36 AM

Some may remember me reporting news articles on Irish Television wherein the Finance Minister said he had been approached by numerous Finance companies considering relocating some of their operations to Dublin. There was also talk of Finance companies relocating some of their operations to Germany at the same time.

A report in todays Guardian reinforces this:


City of London job losses

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 11 Dec 17 - 07:49 AM

There are already rumblings of doubt from Ireland and Europe about Davis's reneging statement
If they live up to their promises none of us will live to see a conclusion to this fiasco
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 11 Dec 17 - 08:16 AM

David Davis is reported to be suffering from severely damaged ankles after having to desperately back- pedal from his statement on the Irish border!
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 11 Dec 17 - 09:27 AM

Reneging?
EU agrees with him.
BBC today,
"The agreement to move Brexit talks on to the next phase is not strictly legally binding but the two sides have "shaken hands" on it, the EU has said."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42303059

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 11 Dec 17 - 09:29 AM

From: DMcG - PM
Date: 11 Dec 17 - 07:21 AM
Were I the EU, I would be saying I wanted the UK to confirm the agreement is the non-negotiable basis of any trade talks. Without that, I would not agree to proceed to the next stage.

Unfortunately that sentiment founders on the main basis of the talks (Quoted both in article 50 and last Friday's announcement)"Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed"

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 11 Dec 17 - 09:50 AM

Not so, Nigel. I do realise the document starts with that declaration but it is not inconstant to make plain you will not accept any further agreement that conflicts with what has already had "a gentleman's handshake". Which seems to be the EU statement since I made my post. It also explains why Davis seems to have reversed yesterdays declarations.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 11 Dec 17 - 09:53 AM

Davis claims, by the way, that yesterday's statements were taken out of context. Unless the BBC edited it, we have the whole context and they do not seem to have been misrepresented.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 11 Dec 17 - 09:57 AM

THe EU has insisted that negotiations move on so that Britain's promise can be put into writing before they change their mind again
I watched th interview on Irish television - the bBC is giving a diplomatic version
Davis's statement was only withdrawn when both Europe and Ireland protested
Will you never stop defending this on-going fiasco Keith?
Read what Nigel has written
"Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed"
Straight from the mouth of the U.D.P.
Terrorist-linked tail wagging the dog
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 11 Dec 17 - 02:30 PM

Will you never stop defending this on-going fiasco Keith?

I do not.
I do not think the negotiations have gone at all well.
More like a series of capitulations from our side.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 11 Dec 17 - 02:41 PM

"More like a series of capitulations from our side."
How about more like having to come to terms with what was a bad idea in the fist place?
Nobody has actually put up barriers to Brexit - they problems are ones the Brexiters they chose to face.
It's their/your job to overcome them.
The problems we are discussing here are those that have spilled over into countries like Ireland who are not part of this Exodus
Because Britain is still clinging onto that country as a legacy of Empire, it makes it a British problem.
The main cock-ups have arisen from sheer stupidity and incompetence
We could have predicted that 'Er Upstairs' would have deliberately thrown away a majority
Who would have believed that a moron like Boris Johnson would ever become foreign Secretary - I look forward with some anticipation to when he actually has to do somethingI have no doubt that, like everything else, nothing is the fault of the Establishment - it's all down to somebody else (you've already blamed the EU and Ireland for the border fuck up
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 11 Dec 17 - 02:57 PM

That's interesting, Keith. I am being serious here - no point scoring agenda.

There are a few reasons why we might be making concessions that I can think of.

The most positive I can think from a Brexit viewpoint is that they do not think it over important, because all that matters is the final agreement - anything you say on the way is bye-the-bye. That is basically the "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" line. All that mattered at this stage was opening the lock to the important bit.

The second reason might be that we have poor negotiators. That is pretty bad, as if they are poor at this stage they are likely to be poor at the next.

The third reason could be that the UK hand is much weaker than they are letting the public know. That would also be dreadful, because it means they are not as confident of the 'no deal' benefits as they claim. Otherwise, why concede anything?

Are there any other explanations that occur to you?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 12 Dec 17 - 03:50 AM

Grin :-)

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 12 Dec 17 - 03:50 AM

Even America has doubts on the wisdom of Brexit.

Rand Report

Do any reports actually say we'd be better off outside the EU, apart from soundbites from MP's ......... any actual reports?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 12 Dec 17 - 03:55 AM

I am sure someone will find some to fit their agenda, Raggy. Anyone taking odds on who it may be? :-)

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 12 Dec 17 - 04:27 AM

Jim,
Because Britain is still clinging onto that country as a legacy of Empire,

Same old lie. Britain does not want NI. It is a millstone on our necks and a hole in our purse.
But, we believe in their right to self determination. Why can't you just persuade them to vote to leave?

DMcG, I agree that are negotiators have been poor. I am not sure they are even committed to leaving.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 12 Dec 17 - 04:44 AM

"Same old lie. Britain does not want NI. "
Go look at the name of the Tory Party Keith - The Conservative and Unionist Party
It has written Ireland into its constitution
Britain believed Ireland had a right to self determination by selecting six counties which would give it the social and cutrural mix t wanted
If iy had believed in self detrmination, the whole of Ireland would have been given the right to choose
It's like letting the wealthiest English South East decide what happens to Britain
Partition has sweet FA to do with free choice
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 12 Dec 17 - 06:26 AM

Go look at the name of the Tory Party Keith - The Conservative and Unionist Party
It has written Ireland into its constitution

And Scotland, but they are both free to leave if they want to go.
A mere 1% majority is all they need.

I can't wait for NI to go, and that is true for most people here.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 12 Dec 17 - 07:15 AM

So following that up, Keith, if you believe the negotiating team are poor now, what gives you confidence they will be better negotiating trade deals post Brexit?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 12 Dec 17 - 07:27 AM

Because, post-Brexit, the unicorns will be here and everything will be lovely...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 12 Dec 17 - 08:17 AM

I am not at all confident that they will get the best possible deal for us.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 12 Dec 17 - 08:22 AM

"and everything will be lovely..."
More bad news from the front on this one
A 3% plus leap in inflation has guaranteed a rise in prices and a drop in the standard of living
Irish Banks have presented a report showing the adverse effect Brexit is having on Trade with other countries
What with this and the border issue, Britain is rapidly becoming the bad neighbour of Europe
Maybe thman who wrote, "Good walls make good neighbours", had it about right!
"A mere 1% majority is all they need."
Ten years ago it was 90+% - a pretty fair assesment of how things are moving
If it had moved faster, there wouldn't have been the need for so many body bags.
It is an armed and aggressively sectarian group that has kept the Six Counties intact with laws, economic repression, unfair voting systems and triumphalist threatening marches
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 12 Dec 17 - 08:31 AM

my prediction EU reaction to Davis' comments on Sunday seem to be as I said I would behave.

This is a guardian report but it was also diacussed in the House of Commons today.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 13 Dec 17 - 05:55 AM

The EU has warned that future negotiations could be cancelled if there is any attempt at "reneging or backsliding"
They said that the agreements need to be made "Davis-proof" if work is to proceed
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 13 Dec 17 - 08:22 AM

In the face of a possible defeat in the Commons, 'May or May Not' has conceded that they will have the right of a final vote before Brexit is finally agreed
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 13 Dec 17 - 08:39 AM

It will be interesting to see how the DUP will vote on the deal. With the party who bribed them with lots of our money or with their local electorate who are firmly pro-European.

Interesting times.

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 13 Dec 17 - 10:20 AM

Well, put a beret on me and call me Pierre...

Express backtracks on Brexit

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 13 Dec 17 - 01:18 PM

Ructions at Number Ten - Tory rebels threaten to vote with Labour tonight over Brexit, demanding a final vote in exiting Europe
Horrors of horrors - Nigel the Newt Farrago makes a scathing attack on May at the EU
Something rotten in the state of Little England, I would say
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 13 Dec 17 - 04:48 PM

Ooops, seems the Government are at odds with each other.

Ooops

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 13 Dec 17 - 05:05 PM

I am gwtting too much of a political junkie I fear: I was watching the live reports. The Sun reporter tweeted this: :Tortured Vicky ford on verge of tears wavering between the two lobbies. Chancellor scoops her into no. Defence secretary on whipping duty cajoling abstainers"

What? An MP unsure how so vote the chancellor decides he wants two votes and pulls her his way?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Dec 17 - 05:24 PM

Some twat's bound to claim 2000...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Dec 17 - 05:25 PM

...so it might as well be me.