BS: Post Brexit life in the UK

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 28 Jan 18 - 02:10 PM

illicted? I do not like to draw attention to such things as this is shaws predilection. Perhaps elicited?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 28 Jan 18 - 03:51 PM

If that is the best riposte you can come up with Iains it doesn't really say a great deal about the "leave" argument does it.

Like I said, I have posted numerous links to articles on line, over a period of months.

There has not been, to date, one single rebuttal of those articles.

Not a single one.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 28 Jan 18 - 04:06 PM

Not a riposte, merely a query.
It could be I do not consider your links worthy of comment.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 28 Jan 18 - 09:07 PM

Well your links either don't work at all, or are way out of date, or negate the points you're trying to make, or have to be either paid for or subscribed to, or are from extreme right-wing sources. That's right grand is that.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 08:50 AM

(Following Iain's comments about 'abbacus')
From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 28 Jan 18 - 11:34 AM

I must have said about ten times now that I'm no longer in favour of a second referendum and given my reasons. Once again, you reveal your scorn for those poor teachers of yours by demonstrating your lack of reading skills. She's called Diane Abbott by the way. Do grow up.

This from someone who insists on calling the previous PM 'Camoron'.
Yet more double standards.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 08:58 AM

Then bollock both of us, Nigel, not just me, right? Don't want people thinking you apply double standards! :-)

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: bobad
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 09:18 AM

Except there's only one hypocrite here.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 09:22 AM

Then bollock both of us, Nigel, not just me, right? Don't want people thinking you apply double standards! :-)

You clearly don't understand. I'm not bollocking you for misusing a name. I'm pointing out your double standards in the matter.
You feel it's Ok to pull someone up for misusing a politician's name, when you do exactly the same yourself.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 09:43 AM

But Nigel, you never ever ever ever ever pull anyone up on your own side. You target me incessantly for the very simple reason that it's all you're capable of. When I criticised your ally Iains for calling Diane a name lampooning her physical appearance, you waded in with a very anodyne and reluctant me-too. You know damn well that had I not picked him up for using the term abbotamus, he'd still be gleefully using it. Apart from that, you give a bye to all the idiocy that emanates from Keith and all the abuse that emanates from Iains, just because they're your mates. I rarely see any substantial contribution to discussions from you. The suspicion is that you neither follow the issues very closely nor understand them much. You cover this up by constantly-sniping little posts. Vast numbers of your posts consist of copy and pasting the whole of someone else's post then adding a one-liner. Pathetic. Find another hobby.

I see the Tories are in a state of hiatus over brexit today. Totally riven, infighting galore, all in the public gaze. We are supposed to be moving on to the next stage of the brexit negotiations. Stand by for some weak-kneed hubris over the transition terms, for which the EU is going to call the shots. God help us.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 09:45 AM

By the way, Nigel, you have pulled me for misusing a name. Just me, no-one else. Bet you hoped I'd forgotten that. Now move on.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 09:58 AM

Meanwhile, I would still like to hear from Iains and Nigel and bobad whether they regard a Hammond/Davis style Brexit as a betrayal. Your personal view, please, so no need to reference anyone else.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 10:10 AM

I rarely see any substantial contribution to discussions from you. The suspicion is that you neither follow the issues very closely nor understand them much. You cover this up by constantly-sniping little posts.

I follow, and understand the issues quite well. I just don't happen to agree with your views of them.
Unfortunately when I make it clear that you have totally misunderstood things like tariffs, or Raggytash fails to understand exchange rates and percentages, you tend to throw a hissy-fit and change the subject claiming you're being stalked.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 10:28 AM

Maths was never my strongest subject, however I do know that the pound crashed immediately after the Brexit vote. Now 19 months later it has yet to recover from that nose dive.

I also know that my weekly shopping bill, my heating and lighting, my vehicle vehicle fuel have all increased, due in some part, because of the fall.

I am fortunate, I can carry these increases, I know some, nay many, cannot.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 11:26 AM

when I make it clear that you have totally misunderstood things like tariffs, or Raggytash fails to understand exchange rates and percentages

But you have never done that, Nigel. When there are multiple ways of interpreting statistics as there always is you simply interpret them in a different way to some others and then claim that your interpretation is the right one. It isn't, it is one of many.

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 11:43 AM

But you have never done that, Nigel. When there are multiple ways of interpreting statistics as there always is you simply interpret them in a different way to some others and then claim that your interpretation is the right one. It isn't, it is one of many.
What, 'never'? You've read every one of my posts, and can assure me of that?
There are not 'always' multiple ways of interpreting statistics. And even if people try to twist them different ways some interpretations can be more accurate than others (at times), particularly if some are being deliberately misused.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 11:49 AM

And anyway, my post didn't mention statistics. It mentioned Tariffs & exchange rates. On both of those subjects I gave precise reasons why the views held by Steve Shaw & Raggytash (respectively) were wrong. None of it was down to personal interpretation.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 11:52 AM

Move along, nothing to see here...



Get a life, Nige.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 12:41 PM

THe EU negotiation guidelines can be found here.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 12:43 PM

" When there are multiple ways of interpreting statistics as there always is you simply interpret them in a different way to some others and then claim that your interpretation is the right one. It isn't, it is one of many."

"The relationship between the data and what they describe merely reflects the fact that certain kinds of statistical statements may have truth values which are not invariant under some transformations. Whether or not a transformation is sensible to contemplate depends on the question one is trying to answer"
Referendum results:
Leave        17,410,742        51.89%
Remain        16,141,241        48.11%
Valid votes        33,551,983        99.92%
Invalid or blank votes        25,359        0.08%

The question is: Who won?
or to slight modify the sentence above,In order to change the outcome. it is not quite so much a futile transformation required as a transmogrification of the data set! There may be multiple ways a loon of the left may interpret the statistical data above but it will require more than jumping through hoops, a looking glass or trip down the rabbit hole to alter the reality.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 01:03 PM

"Who won?"
If things continue in the direction they are heading, nobody
Anothetr internal Govenment crisis, another possibility of a challenge to the leadership
Just what is needed - a split government and no chance of a general; election top put things right for years to come
Just what a country taking a leap in in the dark needs
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 01:14 PM

"Who won".

As long as you stick to the numbers, and the exact question asked in the referendum, there is no difficultly in answering that. However, the instant you go beyond that, you are into interpretation and vagueness and you cannot quote figures.

For example, there is literally no way of knowing how many voted for Hammond-soft-Brexit and how many for Mogg-hard-Brexit. It is completely fallacious to assume they all voted for whatever flavour of Brexit you prefer.

Speaking of which, you seem strangely reluctant to answer that ...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 01:37 PM

But the obstinate fact is that just over a third of the electorate voted leave. In no way does that qualify as "the British people have spoken" or that "the electorate made a choice that was clear-cut and decisive." The fact that we are still arguing about it here and in every bloody pub in the country is that the result was very divisive. One more thing that I've mentioned before. The question on the ballot paper confined itself to a bare yes/no choice. It did not ask whether we should stay in the customs union or single market. The person who, alone, decided that what the question meant was that we shouldn't stay in them was Theresa May, taking advice from an advisor who has since been discredited and who she sacked. She did not consult either the cabinet or parliament. Leavers who bleat on about unelected bureaucrats in Brussels imposing laws on us (a lie) should reflect on that aspect of the Tories' expedient bypassing of democracy, and it hasn't been the only example by a long chalk.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 01:57 PM

You've read every one of my posts, and can assure me of that?

I have not read every one of your posts. Why should I? I can assure you that from what I have seem you have never made it clear that anyone has totally misunderstood things like tariffs or failed to understand exchange rates and percentages. If you can link us to any such action, please feel free to do so.

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 02:00 PM

Today it was raining for five hours.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 02:08 PM

Not everywhere. Thanks for proving the point Iains :-)

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 02:15 PM

" However, the instant you go beyond that, you are into interpretation and vagueness and you cannot quote figures."

Why would anyone want to? In is in , out is out. nowt else required.



" In no way does that qualify as "the British people have spoken" or that "the electorate made a choice that was clear-cut and decisive."

Here is your chance to vote. In, out,
the winner takes all.

Th outcome was very clear and decisive. In was smaller than out, therefore out won. What could possibly be clearer? YOU LOST.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 02:44 PM

Even clearer is that we have all lost.

"In is in , out is out. nowt else required."

Nowt else except almost two years of stop-start angst-ridden "negotiations" being screwed up by a fatally-divided party followed by two years of still paying in, still allowing free movement, having no say in anything, then Christ knows what after that, the only certainty being that we're stuffed. Apart from that, nowt else. Certainly, nowt else for the NHS.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 03:20 PM

" still allowing free movement,"   
That is a very racist little englander attitude. You should be ashamed.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 06:00 PM

What are you talking about? I am stating a fact about free movement in the transition period that you leavers don't want to happen. As a matter of fact, at the very moment I'm typing this, Rees-Mogg is on Newsnight utterly denigrating the very idea of free movement. He's your man, Iains, remember? You told us you wanted him in charge the other day, remember? By that reckoning, the racist little Englander attitude is all yours and his. I'm more than happy with the free movement of people and must have said so dozens of times. Learn to read.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 02:15 AM

Hoops, Steve.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 04:46 AM

From: Dave the Gnome - PM
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 01:57 PM
I have not read every one of your posts. Why should I? I can assure you that from what I have seem you have never made it clear that anyone has totally misunderstood things like tariffs or failed to understand exchange rates and percentages. If you can link us to any such action, please feel free to do so.

You should have read every one of my posts to make a statement like:But you have never done that, Nigel.
I see that you have now scaled back that comment to: from what I have seem you have never made it clear that anyone has totally misunderstood things like tariffs

As for showing that I have corrected on tariffs:

From: Nigel Parsons - PM
Date: 26 Nov 17 - 02:23 PM

From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 26 Nov 17 - 08:54 AM
In what sense are we not already independent? The UK contributes 0.5%, half of one percent, of its total GDP to the EU. We are not in the eurozone. 95% of all laws pertaining to the EU have been fully agreed to by the UK and with around just 2% of EU laws are we in active disagreement. We buy more from them than they buy from us, and it's all tariff-free, and, in very round figures it amounts to about half of all our trade. We can and do trade with the rest of the world, but all thst will now have to be renegotiated. Cor, aren't we good at negotiating! The EU forms a powerful trading bloc that contains the UK population times eight. That's what we're ditching.

The EU does make a powerful trading block, but a trading block which has put 'protectionist' tariffs on the import of many basic foodstuffs which we could import at lower tariffs (WTO) if we were allowed to trade freely. Even without entering into negotiations with those exporting countries we could trade at WTO tariffs, and see a reduced cost of our foods.

"We buy more from them than they buy from us, and it's all tariff free" It's all tariff free when we buy it from (say) Germany, but if it originally sourced from outside the EU then any import tariff has already been paid in Germany, and has been accounted (as a mark up) for when setting the price that Germany will sell it at in order to make a profit.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 05:24 AM

But the obstinate fact is that just over a third of the electorate voted leave. In no way does that qualify as "the British people have spoken" or that "the electorate made a choice that was clear-cut and decisive." The fact that we are still arguing about it here and in every bloody pub in the country is that the result was very divisive.

Just over 1/3 (of the electorate) voted 'leave'.
Just over 1/3 (of the electorate) voted 'remain'.
It qualifies as "The electorate made a choice" in that the percentage voting 'leave' outvoted those voting 'remain' by 52:48 (approx.)
Whether you look at percentage of available voters, percentage of those who actually voted, or percentage of the whole population, the result will still show in the ration 52:48

The fact that we are still arguing about it here and in every bloody pub in the country is that the result was very divisive.
Sorry, the meaning of that sentence is unclear.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 05:26 AM

So, absolutely no correction of what was said and no clarification of anything then. You seem to be channeling Keith in your (mis)use of the English language.

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 05:40 AM

And you don't think the US will be protectionist, then, Nigel?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 05:46 AM

So, absolutely no correction of what was said and no clarification of anything then.

I have corrected the assumption that purchases from the EU do not include tariffs.
I have clarified that the import tariffs charged by the EU become part of the 'hidden costs' in the goods we purchase from the EU.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 05:53 AM

From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 05:40 AM

And you don't think the US will be protectionist, then, Nigel?

From the posturings of Trump I do expect the US to be protectionist. But why the sudden query about that?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 05:55 AM

Because I believe it will impact hugely on any trade deal we manage to achieve with them.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 06:33 AM

It may have a large effect on our trade with them. But why aim the comment at me, worded in such a way as to suggest that I have stated (or suggested) the contrary at any point?
And you don't think the US will be protectionist, then, Nigel?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 06:34 AM

I have corrected the assumption that purchases from the EU do not include tariffs.

They do not include tariffs from EU to EU countries. Which is what was said. No correction.

I have clarified that the import tariffs charged by the EU become part of the 'hidden costs' in the goods we purchase from the EU.

Of course they do. Just like hidden costs include transport, R&D and the Directors floozies new Lexus. Everyone is aware of these costs. No clarification.

I am sure everyone is sick to the back teeth of the linguistic gymnastics that people go through to try and score points against their perceived 'opponents'. It is what causes these discussions to become so ridiculous.

Two people now trying to hold up hoops. Who will try being ringmaster next?

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 06:39 AM

From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 29 Jan 18 - 01:57 PM
I have not read every one of your posts. Why should I? I can assure you that from what I have seem you have never made it clear that anyone has totally misunderstood things like tariffs or failed to understand exchange rates and percentages. If you can link us to any such action, please feel free to do so.

That looks suspiciously like one of the hoops you're referring to ;)

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 06:45 AM

Different language
Different planet

Going for the hat trick and adding different morality any time soon?

:D tG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 07:42 AM

So today we have a leaked DExEU document which, for all its limitations was "meant to be shown confidentially to cabinet ministers this week" (according to the Guardian).

We also have the start of the House of Lords reading of the withdrawal bill at which a record 195 Lords have asked to speak. Already, about an hour in, the bill has been severely criticised.

And, on the same day on Mudcat we are arguing about whether the word 'never' waa used literally or in the idiomatic sense everyone can understand. Trivial stuff, folks

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 07:57 AM

Who will try being ringmaster next?
We are awaiting the arrival of the other four rings.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 08:01 AM

Stop talking about rings, Dave. I'm planning a very hot curry tonight.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 08:09 AM

Leaked government document says that the UK will be considerably worse off whatever
kind of brexit we get. The Department of Denial (aka Tory brexiteers) is saying that the predictions did not include the type of bespoke deal that Theresa wants (and which we are definitely not getting). Interesting that these adverse reports always seem intended to be for govt eyes only...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 08:19 AM

It is a slightly curious position to argue that all such forecasts are rubbish but be upset because it does not include the rubbish estimate from your preferred assumptions.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 08:34 AM

" Interesting that these adverse reports always seem intended to be for govt eyes only... "

But to quote your goodself on the function of an MP:
"I expect him or her to become more expert than I am in matters politic and I don't necessarily expect them to comply with my wishes."

My question to you is that if the mps are expert in matters politic, then why on earth would you need to know the contents of a report?

Also far more importantly- if negotiating, only a fool displays all the cards to the other players.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 08:42 AM

Of course it goes without saying that the leaked new Treasury-led Brexit forecasts have to be read in the context of their record at predicting what would happen in the immediate aftermath of a Leave vote.

The HMT prediction for GDP 3 months after the referendum was that “the UK economy would fall into recession” and contract up to -1%. It grew +0.5% in this period.

The Treasury told us: “The analysis shows that immediately following a vote to leave the EU, the economy would be pushed into a recession, with four quarters of negative growth.” The reality has been positive growth every single quarter since.

HMT forecast that in the two years following a Leave vote GDP would fall between -3% and -6%. GDP grew by 1.9% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017, with better than expected growth in the final quarter. There is now no recession forecast.

On unemployment, they infamously said it would rise by between 500,000 and 820,000 in the immediate aftermath of the referendum. Unemployment fell again last week to a four-decade low.

And the Treasury said government borrowing would rise by up to £39 billion immediately after the vote. Instead borrowing for the financial year to date is down 12% on the same period last year. That’s the lowest year-to-date total since 2007.

Were I a betting man I would not put money on any of their forecasts.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: SPB-Cooperator
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 09:52 AM

Did you know that not all MP's are in government so how can my MP use her expert judgment on my behalf if the reports are for the government's eyes only?????

Or are only tory lowlife entitled to have their MPs do this????????

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Jan 18 - 12:57 PM

And what about the decision that the brexit decision meant that we leave the customs union and the single market, a question never asked? Only two people in the country have imposed that interpretation on us and only one of those was a MP, the Right Honourable Member for Maidenhead. Done and dusted, fait accomplis. Interesting that she's now decided that she wants a bit of that anyway, what with her "bespoke trade deal" wot she will not be getting.

These are our servants Iains, who we pay. They have no right to withhold information from us just because it appears to undermine their mission. We call it democracy.