BS: Post Brexit life in the UK

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 08 Oct 17 - 07:36 PM

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 08 Oct 17 - 01:38 PM
Our economic growth and our productivity is a damn sight more sluggish than the main players in tbe EU and we haven’t even started yet.

A totally crap comment.
"We haven't started yet."
What is it you claim we haven't started?
We haven't started productivity?
We haven't started 'growing' our productivity?
We haven't started the process necessary to escape from the EU?

Please, a little clarity in your writing would enable people to have a reasonable discussion. But perhaps that is not what you want.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 08 Oct 17 - 07:52 PM

We haven’t even started on the unstoppable downhill slide into economic oblivion that brexit, if it ever happens, has forced us into. We’re in shit street already, as I explained, but we ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. Hope this helps, Nigel. If you apply in writing I’d be quite happy to provide my views in words not exceeding one syllable. I do know how hard it is for you.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Teribus
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 02:43 AM

Shaw - "Hope this helps, Nigel. If you apply in writing I’d be quite happy to provide my views in words not exceeding one syllable. I do know how hard it is for you." - In case it has escaped your notice so far, on numerous threads Nigel Parsons has been running circles round you and your views. Best buck up lad, you are so far astern in his wake it is becoming embarrassing for you and your chums.

Britain's economic performance is slower than the EU's ? Depending on what time frame?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 04:00 AM

"Our economic growth and our productivity is a damn sight more sluggish than the main players in tbe EU and we haven’t even started yet."

By any metric the UK ranks in the first three economies in the EU. How can we be more sluggish in our growth and productivity than ourselves?
Try gargling with cheap plonk instead of swallowing by the case load shaw. It may help you remain lucid!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: peteglasgow
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 04:12 AM

this may be a slight post drift but i was reading this morning about army recruits being at least 18. seems obvious enough but why not think radically - army recruits should be at least 60 year old and paid a proper wage instead of having to rely on a pension. generally, young people are more inclined to get on with many people from abroad and like the opportunities that a more integrated europe (and the world) offers - it seems cruel to be encouraging them to fight their friends. this would also solve the problem of old folk feeling lonely and lacking purpose - so many these days have nowt better to do than bicker and insult each other online.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 04:34 AM

Leave the armed forces out of it, peteaberdeen, and there is perhaps more merit in that idea than first appears. Isolation and lack of a sense of purpose is indeed a serious issue for many who are retired.

But that's for another thread, I think.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 05:14 AM

...UK economy was the weakest in Europe in the first quarter of 2017. The UK’s large Continental peers – Germany, France – grew by 0.6 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively. Britain’s 0.2 per cent expansion in the three months to March put it at the bottom of the EU league table. The UK had the lowest GDP growth rate in the European Union in the first quarter of 2017, according to the European statistics agency Eurostat.

Britain’s 0.2 per cent expansion in the three months to March, down sharply from the 0.7 per cent growth in the final quarter of 2016, put it at the bottom of the EU league table.

The UK’s large Continental peers – Germany, France – grew by 0.6 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively. Reports last week suggested Italy’s economy had grown by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter – equal to the UK. But Eurostat now puts Italy’s growth at 0.4 per cent. Even Greece, which has endured years of depression, grew faster than the UK, with its economy expanding by 0.4 per cent.

Data is not yet available for Malta, Luxembourg and Ireland, but given those economies grew at a quarterly rate of 1.7 per cent, 1.3 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively in the final quarter of 2016 it would take a remarkable collapse for them to come below the UK. (Independent, June 7 2017)

According to Expert Market, which looked at the productivity of the 35 biggest economies, the UK came in at 16th, below every major EU economy except for Spain and Italy.(Independent, July 16 2016), way below Sweden, Ireland, Germany, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland and Austria.

But sez Iains, (clearly blinded by his obsessive need to hurl insults), "By any metric the UK ranks in the first three economies in the EU. How can we be more sluggish in our growth and productivity than ourselves?"

Ah, those damned facts, Iains, always getting in the way, aren't they? What "metric" were you using? The length of bananas or the straightness of cucumbers by any chance?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 05:24 AM

We haven’t even started on the unstoppable downhill slide into economic oblivion that brexit, if it ever happens, has forced us into.
That is clearly your personal opinion. You do not see this country as being capable of dealing with the future, possible, consequences. A lovely mixture of tenses there. I assume you meant “will have forced us into” as you are writing about possible future consequences.

We’re in shit street already, as I explained, but we ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.
You have explained no such thing. You have just propounded your own personal view, with no reasonable explanation given.

Hope this helps, Nigel. If you apply in writing I’d be quite happy to provide my views in words not exceeding one syllable. I do know how hard it is for you.
Feel free to write monosyllabically. It may help your comprehension.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 05:41 AM

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 05:45 AM

From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 05:14 AM
...UK economy was the weakest in Europe in the first quarter of 2017. The UK’s large Continental peers – Germany, France – grew by 0.6 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively. Britain’s 0.2 per cent expansion in the three months to March put it at the bottom of the EU league table. The UK had the lowest GDP growth rate in the European Union in the first quarter of 2017, according to the European statistics agency Eurostat.
A selective set of stats, as it only covers a 3 month period, which may not be representative.

The Guardian also gives these figures, but goes on to state:
However, in year-on-year terms the UK was closer to the EU performance and ahead of the 19-nation eurozone. After a strong second half to 2016, when the economy defied predictions of a post-referendum slump, UK GDP was still 2% bigger in the first quarter of 2017 than a year earlier. The EU’s economy was 2.1% bigger on the year while the eurozone was up 1.9%.

And before I get cited as also using selective statements, The Guardian does go on to predict lower figures for UK for 2017/2018.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 05:52 AM

Read my last post, study the predictions then come back and explain to the thread how we're not up shit creek sans paddle, Nigel. It's been my opinion since the referendum was announced and it's coming true, even though we're nowhere near the dreaded March 2019 date yet. Productivity in the doldrums, weak growth, a collapsing pound leading to inflation and a consequent drop in living standards, food banks more popular than ever, NHS up the Swanee, the country rudderless in the hands of a feckless, inept laughing stock. Apart from that, hunkydory, eh, Nigel? Of course these things are all just opinions. We know that bad things are just round the corner; we just don't know yet how bad. Your head's in the sand, Nigel. Maybe you're scrabbling around bitterly down there to find some more grammatical inelegances with which to slap me. Good luck!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 05:54 AM

Not the empty one, though you'll be telling me any minute now that it makes more sense.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 06:25 AM

"We know that bad things are just round the corner"
Oh the bells of hell go ting aling aling, for you but not for me........

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 06:44 AM

From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 05:52 AM
Read my last post, study the predictions then come back and explain to the thread how we're not up shit creek sans paddle, Nigel.

I had already read that post, and it is that which I was referring to as being 'selective'.
As for "study the predictions", I've just re-read the post, and can see none. You may wish to clarify what (in the following quote) you consider to have been 'predictions'.
...UK economy was the weakest in Europe in the first quarter of 2017. The UK’s large Continental peers – Germany, France – grew by 0.6 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively. Britain’s 0.2 per cent expansion in the three months to March put it at the bottom of the EU league table. The UK had the lowest GDP growth rate in the European Union in the first quarter of 2017, according to the European statistics agency Eurostat.

Britain’s 0.2 per cent expansion in the three months to March, down sharply from the 0.7 per cent growth in the final quarter of 2016, put it at the bottom of the EU league table.

The UK’s large Continental peers – Germany, France – grew by 0.6 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively. Reports last week suggested Italy’s economy had grown by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter – equal to the UK. But Eurostat now puts Italy’s growth at 0.4 per cent. Even Greece, which has endured years of depression, grew faster than the UK, with its economy expanding by 0.4 per cent.

Data is not yet available for Malta, Luxembourg and Ireland, but given those economies grew at a quarterly rate of 1.7 per cent, 1.3 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively in the final quarter of 2016 it would take a remarkable collapse for them to come below the UK. (Independent, June 7 2017)

According to Expert Market, which looked at the productivity of the 35 biggest economies, the UK came in at 16th, below every major EU economy except for Spain and Italy.(Independent, July 16 2016), way below Sweden, Ireland, Germany, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland and Austria.

But sez Iains, (clearly blinded by his obsessive need to hurl insults), "By any metric the UK ranks in the first three economies in the EU. How can we be more sluggish in our growth and productivity than ourselves?"

Ah, those damned facts, Iains, always getting in the way, aren't they? What "metric" were you using? The length of bananas or the straightness of cucumbers by any chance?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 07:31 AM

Read my last post and study the predictions are separate injunctions. Read the post, which is nowhere near as selective as you claim (unless you'd care to tell me which bits unfavourable to my argument are missing), then read the predictions about the future performance of our economy supplied by other sources not quoted by me. They are out there. Happy to clarify.

Here's one from the IMF (Guardian report, 24 July):

The International Monetary Fund has cut its growth forecast for the UK economy this year after a weak performance in the first three months of 2017.

In its first downgrade for the UK since the EU referendum in June last year, the IMF said it expected the British economy to expand by 1.7% this year, 0.3 points lower than when it last made predictions in April.

The Fund raised its forecasts for the UK after the Brexit vote as a result of the much stronger than envisaged activity in the second half of 2016. In October 2016, it pencilled in growth of 1.1% for 2017, raising this forecast to 1.5% in January this year and to 2% in April.

Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF’s economic counsellor, pointed to a marked change in early 2017. He said the UK’s growth forecast had been lowered based on its “tepid performance” so far this year, adding: “The ultimate impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom remains unclear.”

The IMF left its growth forecast for the UK in 2018 unchanged at 1.5% but said one key risk facing the global economy was that the Brexit talks would end in failure.

It contrasted its gloomier outlook for the UK with a rosier forecast for the rest of the EU, with 2017 growth upgrades for the four biggest eurozone countries – Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

Germany has been revised up by 0.2 points to 1.8%, France by 0.1 points to 1.5%, while Italy and Spain have both been revised up by 0.5 points to 1.3% and 3.1% respectively.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 07:39 AM

A bit more, Nigel? This stuff is dead easy to find. From July.

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s economy is likely to lose momentum in the second half of 2017, according to a closely watched survey that could disappoint some Bank of England officials who want to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade.

Sterling dipped after Wednesday’s Markit/CIPS survey showed growth across British services companies fell to a four-month low in June.

Although the survey suggested the economy recovered some speed in the second quarter and probably expanded at a quarterly pace of around 0.4 percent, double the pace of the weak first quarter, there were some ominous signals in the PMI’s forward-looking gauges.

Business expectations sank to their weakest level since last July’s dip after the vote to leave the European Union, and it was not far off lows last reached in late 2011. Growth in new orders hit a nine-month low.

The headline index edged down to a four-month low of 53.4 in June from 53.8 in May, just shy of a forecast for 53.5 in a Reuters poll of economists.

On Tuesday BoE rate-setter Michael Saunders said he was “reasonably confident” that lower consumer spending will be offset by higher exports and investment, justifying his vote to raise interest rates from a record low 0.25 percent.

“But the latest PMI survey pours some cold water on that hypothesis,” said JPMorgan economist Allan Monks.

“Indeed, it is worth highlighting that the weakness in the UK PMI comes at a time when the broader European PMIs have strengthened considerably.”

The mood among services firms was probably hit by uncertainty after June’s election, in which Prime Minister Theresa May gambled away her parliamentary majority, and by Brexit talks, as well as the economic outlook, IHS Markit said.

A third monthly drop in car sales in June -- albeit from recent record highs -- underlined the slowdown among consumers.

Separate official data showed productivity, arguably Britain’s biggest economic problem over the last decade, fell in the first three months of the year -- the first decline since late 2015.

The latest productivity data further complicates the outlook for BoE policymakers. Although weak productivity reduces the scope for future wage growth, it goes hand-in-hand with higher inflation.

“Unless more is done to tackle the nation’s low productivity, people’s wages and living standards will continue to fall and the UK will be ill-equipped to compete once we do leave the EU,” said Ian Brinkley, acting chief economist at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development.
.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 07:41 AM

I already stated exactly why I believed it to be 'selective':
From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 05:14 AM
...UK economy was the weakest in Europe in the first quarter of 2017. The UK’s large Continental peers – Germany, France – grew by 0.6 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively. Britain’s 0.2 per cent expansion in the three months to March put it at the bottom of the EU league table. The UK had the lowest GDP growth rate in the European Union in the first quarter of 2017, according to the European statistics agency Eurostat.
A selective set of stats, as it only covers a 3 month period, which may not be representative>/b>.

Your latest posted statistics, which you equate with UK being in 'shit street' show the latest forecasts for growth in the coming year: UK 1.5% Germany 1.8% France 1.5% Italy 1.3% Spain 3.1%
So, well behind Spain (but so are the rest), Slightly behind Germany, level with France and slightly ahead of Italy.
The figures hardly supports your contentions then, do they?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 07:53 AM

I posted two lengthy extracts from credible sources (others are available) to support my opinion. Now it's you being selective. Take it or leave it, Nigel. The general picture is that this country is in trouble and that things are likely to get worse. If you can really find a cheery economic forecast, let's be having it. You're being tiresome. Move on.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: akenaton
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 10:43 AM

The country is not "in trouble", but the negativity spread by the remoaners and their trough licking friends in parliament make negotiation more difficult. The EU side perceive us as divided and therefore weakened.
As I said before we will almost certainly have to walk away from the negotiations and though we will still trade with Europe when they come crawling back, the time scale will be longer in setting up arrangements......and it will be the fault of those who cannot, for reasons of ideology or greed, accept the result of a democratic vote and put their efforts into making our country stronger and more independent.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 10:46 AM

Spring 2017 economic forecast. Not quite tha same as Shaw's. IN fact the UK looks quite good for 2018.
In terms of the four leading EU economies growth GDP growth %yoy:
             2015   2016    2017    2018

UK          2.2    1.8    1.8    1.3

France       1.3    1.2    1.4    1.7

Germany      1.7    1.9    1.4    1.9

Italy       0.8    0.9    0.9    1.1

Gloom and Doom? Don't think so! From the EU hoss's mouth no less. Nought to do with bent bananas or dodgy cucumbers you stupid boy!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 10:55 AM

They’re not good news, though, are they, insulter-in-chief? And no comment from you I see about our dismal standing in tbe league tables, with which you can’t argue. What was that you were saying about our being in the first three “by any metric?”

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 11:21 AM

“The country is not "in trouble", but the negativity spread by the remoaners and their trough licking friends in parliament make negotiation more difficult. The EU side perceive us as divided and therefore weakened.”

The country is divided because a very divisive referendum campaign, with misrepresentations or downright lies propagated by both sides, yielded a result that was split almost down the middle. It is not undemocratic to try to get a disastrous decision reversed. In fact, that’s what democracy’s all about. Brexit is by no means a done deal and you have no right to keep castigating “remoaners” for exercising their peaceful democratic right to oppose what we think is an impending catastrophe. The other 27, spearheaded by Germany, are not going to be coming back crawling. In fact, and they are increasingly coming to realise this, they could be better off without us, which is why the EU bigwigs are sitting there obstinately giving us nothing. They know they don’t have to. Ever since Maggie’s days we’ve been the pain in the arse standing outside pissing in, getting rebates, not joining the euro or Schengen and demanding all sorts of other exemptions. And, in case you’ve forgotten, we were the sick man of Europe before we joined the EEC and in our first few years of membership, enduring devaluation, a rotten economy, an IMF bailout and the three-day week. We are as strong as we are today not because we are still a mighty global force as the Blimps would like us to believe but because we’ve been a member of the EU. And now the EU is doing a damn sight better than we are “by any metric” and we are increasingly looking like we’re limping behind. And you ain’t seen nothing yet.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 11:47 AM

And what was the reason for the three day week? Striking coal miners.
Hardly any wonder the magnificent Thatcher broke their back as soon as the opportunity presented itself. Government rules countries, not unions. Clot corbyn has yet to discover this very basic fact of life.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 11:49 AM

The country is divided because a very divisive referendum campaign, with misrepresentations or downright lies propagated by both sides, yielded a result that was split almost down the middle. It is not undemocratic to try to get a disastrous decision reversed.
No, it’s not. But for the majority, it was not a disastrous decision.

Ever since Maggie’s days we’ve been the pain in the arse standing outside pissing in, getting rebates, not joining the euro or Schengen and demanding all sorts of other exemptions.
Not quite, it was in ‘Maggie’s days’ that we got the rebate agreed.
Since that time Tony Blair conceded part of the rebate in exchange for a promise of a review of the CAP, which was never forthcoming, but the EU retained the benefit of the reduced rebate.

The EU has been taking advantage of UK for almost 50 years. It is hard for them to give that up.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 11:57 AM

A silly post with little relevance to what we’re discussing. We were seen as the sick man of Europe because of years of poor economic performance involving enforced devaluation and an IMF bailout. Certainly, poor industrial relations were also viewed from afar as contributing to the problems. It takes two sides to have relations and those of us who lived through that were all too aware of Heath’s inept administration. Thanks for all those threshold pay increases though, Ted! With those coupled with the Houghton report my salary doubled in 18 months when the country couldn’t afford it...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 12:01 PM

That was directed at Iains.

Nigel, you have no point to make about the timing of the rebate. There was nothing inaccurate about my statement. If this kind of nitpicking is really the best you can do it doesn’t say much for your depth of understanding.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 12:01 PM

Quotes from Steve Shaw:
SS: 1.         As Dubya said, the trouble with the French is that they haven't even got a WORD for "entrepreneur" in their language
2.         I KNOW he didn’t actually say it,

NP: No need to argue with him any more. He’s arguing with himself

SS: I was being whimsical. Anyone normal here would have seen that. Dubya didn’t wave at Stevie Wonder either. It’s what we do to politicians, Nigel. Had I said it about a Saudi king my head and torso would now be in separate rooms. So I love to say stupid things about Dubya because I can. I find it devilishly amusing and I don’t expect anyone to think I’m telling the literal truth. Now move on, Nigel. You’ve flogged it to death. They do that in some non-democracies too. Un-po that long face of yours, otherwise it’ll set that way. I wonder whether that’s true...

NP: You may see me as 'po faced'. And say that you were being whimsical. But you put it forward as a statement (no emoticons, or other signals to suggest that you didn't believe what you were saying).
How many of the 'facts' that you propound in other threads are also your 'whimsy'?
Presumably there is no point disagreeing with you about anything, as once you are proved wrong you'll just say you never really meant it.

I think your credibility is well and truly self-scuppered.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 12:04 PM

Move on, Nigel.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jack Campin
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 12:44 PM

This is a sobering insight into what we can expect:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-eu-negotiator-europe-euratom-airline-safety-negotiations-theresa-may-worse-anyone-guessed-a7858586.html

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 01:23 PM

You have to laugh sometimes. The BBC is reporting Contingency plans in case the UK has to leave the EU with no deal in place are "well under way", a minister has said.

Dominic Raab said while the UK had to "strive for the very best outcome" from Brexit negotiations, it had to "prepare for all eventualities".

Yes, I agree, very sensible. Plan for all eventualities, good idea. Including a possible run on the pound, perhaps? After all, that is something other people decide, not you, so it is only sensible to plan for it...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 01:28 PM

Whimsical=capricious=given to sudden and unaccountable changes of mood or behaviour.

Oh dear-by his own admission he has totally lost the plot. Time to move in and just ignore the ramblings.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 01:54 PM

DmCG The run on the pound occured immediately after the Referendum vote.

The pound has consistently traded at 10% lower against the Dollar and 15% below against the Euro since the vote.

There are few, if any, signs of it recovering those losses in the near future.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 02:24 PM

True, Raggy, but the reference was to the shock! Horror! when Labour said fairly recently it was one of the things they wargamed.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: peteglasgow
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 02:54 PM

given that it is overwhelmingly older people who wish to leave and pursue this aggressive stance towards our friends and neighbours (and common sense) (and maintain trident etc) we really should get them enlisted to the military. and in a long overdue radical change of policy we should only allow women under 30 to decide if we are going to unleash our aging war heroes on some unfortunate (ex-empire?) foe)

any over 60s on here willing to sign up to give young people a break for once?

mind you,during the last election campaign i was talking to some squaddies at a sign up to kill foreigners stall in workington. 'if you vote for jeremy corbyn you won't have to fight so many nasty wars in the desert' - 'i want to fight wars, nastier the better' you can't argue with that i suppose

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 05:27 PM

I did get your reference, DMcG, and thought it was a great post. Just a touch of whimsy, I know, but be careful who you mention it to. In the immortal words of Basil, I mentioned it once but I think I got away with it...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: akenaton
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 05:47 PM

I remember the last big run in Wilsons time when they tried to sabotage his govt.
Surely you don't want to see a repeat of that for ideological reasons "D"?
These things can be overcome, the future is wide open, we just need to be bold and work together. Negativity and division will only make the final outcome harder to attain and the poorest in society will suffer.
The status quo is no longer available, though almost everyone here has a stake in keeping it.....but we don't represent the "other" Britain, the people left behind by globalisation, the homeless youth, the hopeless estate dwellers, the swathes of our country blighted by drugs and criminality.
I've been a manual worker all my life, I've seen all the facets of this warped society, but most who write here haven't a fucking clue, isolated by an establishment education, they want their kids to have what they had......I know grandfathers,fathers and children who have never had anything....not even hope.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: akenaton
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 05:54 PM

Brexit wont initiate a run on the pound, but the election of a socialist government certainly would.

Of course it wont come to that the facebook socialists will soon join the establishment "socialists" in propping up the old political order.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 06:18 PM

We haven’t even got brexit yet but the sheer prospect of it has ditched the pound. I was loading my prepaid Caxton card (I use it on my holidays) at around €1.38 eighteen months ago. A week before I went to Madeira last month I couldn’t even get €1.08. As I’d expected this and loaded up me spending money well in advance it didn’t bother me personally. But just think. Imports dearer, inflation soaring in consequence and companies unable to meet it via pay increases...and such a long way to go!

Still, as we fall down the skyscraper and ignore the ground rapidly coming up to obliterate us, isn’t the blue sky with its fluffy little clouds so lovely...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 02:16 AM


I remember the last big run in Wilsons time when they tried to sabotage his govt.
Surely you don't want to see a repeat of that for ideological reasons "D"?

Well, ake, there is a huge difference between planning what you would to prevent, or minimise the effects of something and wanting it to happen.


Secondly, when 'they' tried to sabotage Wilson's government? Are you referring to Peter Wright's assertions in "Spycatcher" that the establishment, via MI5, was trying to sabotage Wilson's government? No, I certainly don't want that to happen.    But are you referring to the devaluation of the pound under Wilson of 14%?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: akenaton
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 04:40 AM

Yes "D" I'm referring to the wholesale financial speculation which led to the devaluation.

The political establishment have many such tools in their armoury.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 04:47 AM

From: Raggytash - PM
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 01:54 PM
DmCG The run on the pound occured immediately after the Referendum vote.
The pound has consistently traded at 10% lower against the Dollar and 15% below against the Euro since the vote.
There are few, if any, signs of it recovering those losses in the near future.

So we may see a further drop. The only surprise is that people are surprised.
The pound is currently at $1.32 and is probably still overvalued. A period of adjustment for the pound has long been expected.

See: The Telegraph 26 Dec 2015

The pound is one of the most overvalued currencies in the world and will suffer next year as the Government ramps up spending cuts and uncertainty about Britain’s future in the EU weighs on growth.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank warned that the Bank of England may not be able to raise interest rates “at all” if Britain’s recovery slows.

It believes the pound could fall as low as $1.27 next year and $1.15 in 2017 from about $1.485 today if the US Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy and the Bank of England leaves interest rates on hold.

“We have various different ways of looking at currency valuations and what we find is that sterling is the most expensive currency out there at the moment - even including the dollar,” said Oliver Harvey, foreign exchange strategist at Deutsche Bank. Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund said the pound was between 5pc and 15pc overvalued.


So the pound's recent fall is an overdue re-balancing of its value when compared with other currencies.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 04:51 AM

"Brexit wont initiate a run on the pound, but the election of a socialist government certainly would"

Have you looked at the exchange rates in the last 18 months since the Referendum?

In November 2015 I exchanged a good sum at 1.41 Euro to the pound so each Euro cost me 71 pence sterling.

Today if I exchanged I would get 1.11 Euro to the pound so each Euro would cost me 90 pence sterling.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out the maths.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 05:34 AM

From: Raggytash - PM
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 04:51 AM
"Brexit wont initiate a run on the pound, but the election of a socialist government certainly would"
Have you looked at the exchange rates in the last 18 months since the Referendum?
In November 2015 I exchanged a good sum at 1.41 Euro to the pound so each Euro cost me 71 pence sterling.
Today if I exchanged I would get 1.11 Euro to the pound so each Euro would cost me 90 pence sterling.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out the maths.

That's just good timing (or good luck). There's a graph Here that shows the pound at similar rates for most of 2015, but then falling.
However, the rate still hasn't hit the low that it had in 2009 under a Labour government.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 05:54 AM

Nor has it ever hit the high of 1.75 euro to the pound, also under a Labour Government in April 2000.

Amazing what you can cherry pick.

However since the referendum the pound has consistently traded at a level 15% lower than before the vote.

Every day, every week, every month.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 06:56 AM

From: Raggytash - PM
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 05:54 AM
Nor has it ever hit the high of 1.75 euro to the pound, also under a Labour Government in April 2000.
Amazing what you can cherry pick.
However since the referendum the pound has consistently traded at a level 15% lower than before the vote.
Every day, every week, every month.

Immediately prior to the result (June 23 2016) the rate was 1.3039.
85% (100% less 15%) of 1.3039 is 1.1083 The pound fell below this level briefly in Oct/Nov 2016 and again in August/Sept 2017

So NOT 15% lower, every day, every week, every month. Hardly even two full months out of fifteen.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 07:16 AM

Are you trying to suggest that the pound has not consistently traded at a lower level for the past 15 months.

At the time of the referendum the pound traded at 1.3030 Euro, thus each Euro cost 0.7669 pence.

Today the pound is trading at 1.1137, thus each Euro costs 0.8979 pence.

The difference is a 16% fall on todays market, it has been greater.

Now we could argue figures all day but the fact remains that the pound has been consistently lower against the Euro in the 15 months between the referendum and now.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 07:17 AM

It must also be pointed out that many years ago the pound traded at 1.04 to the euro. Currencies go up-currencies go down. This is a fact of life. The most severe drops have been on Labour's watch under Brown
the bountiful.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 07:21 AM

Nigel, you are in denial. Whether the pound was overvalued by five, or fifteen, percent is moot. The obstinate fact is that the pound has plummeted by 14% in the last year and and a bit. The referendum took place a year and a bit ago. The two are inextricably connected. The devaluation has been at the same percentage loss as under Wilson. Sudden swings are very bad for the economy. Imports are dearer and inflation goes up. Pay rises won't follow suit. All this has happened even before the nuts and bolts of brexit have started to grind. We ain't seen nothing yet.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 07:37 AM

From: Raggytash - PM
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 07:16 AM
Are you trying to suggest that the pound has not consistently traded at a lower level for the past 15 months.
No. I am not suggesting that. I am correcting your claim that since the referendum the pound has consistently traded at a level 15% lower than before the vote

At the time of the referendum the pound traded at 1.3030 Euro, thus each Euro cost 0.7669 pence.
Today the pound is trading at 1.1137, thus each Euro costs 0.8979 pence.
The difference is a 16% fall on todays market, it has been greater.
No I can’t see where you’re getting 16% from on that calculation either.

As you said earlier: It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out the maths.. I would suggest you don’t go in for rocket science then, as you can’t handle basic maths.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 07:39 AM

Iains, Have you looked at the graph provided by Nigel, who I would consider one of your "allies" in this dsicussion.

During much of the Labour Governments term of office the pound traded at a much higher level. Only occasionally has it reached the same heights under a Conservative/Coalition Government.

You can see the figures for yourself.

However, this is a distraction from the discussion that the Pound has significantly weakened against the Euro since the Brexit vote. That is a fact which is clear to see in the graph kindly provided by Nigel.