BS: Post Brexit life in the UK

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Jun 18 - 05:58 AM

As Alastair Campbell said this morning, there is no brexit dividend coming. Brexit will cost the economy dearly for many years to come. Any increase for the NHS will be fully funded by tax increases. That's the honest way to do it and that's the only honest way of saying it.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 17 Jun 18 - 05:52 AM

"to ensure we come out the other side with as little "
That seems to be an acceptance that there will be damage" Nigel
Was't that a long time coming - though welcome, now it's arrived
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 17 Jun 18 - 03:10 AM

"You may recall how the Leaver's on this thread and elsewhere have been adamant no such promise was ever made. It will be amusing to watch them now claim the promise is being fulfilled..."

Ha! As my old mum used to say of those seeking to justify the unjustifiable, "Them buggers say owt but their prayers!".

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Jun 18 - 03:02 AM

That there is going to be a big rise in NHS funding is greatly to be welcomed. This is one thing Teresa May is reported to have said:

"In her BBC interview, Mrs May said the increase will exceed the £350m-a-week extra promised by Leave campaigners during the EU referendum campaign."

You may recall how the Leaver's on this thread and elsewhere have been adamant no such promise was ever made. It will be amusing to watch them now claim the promise is being fulfilled...

It is financial slight of hand and politics, of course. We may well end up paying for a Galileo substitute purely as consequence of Brexit. And that will have to be paid for. As will many other things we did not anticipate. I would say you need to have covered all of the costs of those first, before claiming the extra NHS funding is due to a Brexit dividend.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 15 Jun 18 - 11:00 AM

Raggy:
You may think that "what the Labour Party do is of little concern", and I would like to agree.

Unfortunately they (and some Conservatives) are still able to make mischief, and make it difficult for the government "to ensure we come out the other side with as little damage as possible".

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 15 Jun 18 - 10:48 AM

At the moment what Labour do is of little concern.

The conservative party got us into this situation, it is THEIR responsibility to ensure we come out the other side with as little damage as possible.

To hell in a handcart comes to mind.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 15 Jun 18 - 06:42 AM

"St Jeremy of Islington."
I PREFER MY SATIRE LIKE THIS
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 15 Jun 18 - 05:12 AM

St Jeremy of Islington.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYcPGsscVmI

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 15 Jun 18 - 04:32 AM

Labour and Tories are both split over this.
All parties have a majority of Remainers in Parliament and always have, but they decided to let the electorate choose.


Now they want to take it back.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 15 Jun 18 - 04:27 AM

The rebellions in Labour are totally as you would expect. As I said on 7 June at 2:10 the Labour approach seemed to me to be pushing an approach they knew could not win, and so it is no surprise that there were lots of rebels.

But that is a different order to apparent deceit in what the words to be written into law would be.


As to the SNP: I said a while back - and was contradicted - that not enough time was allocated to discussing these amendment.
The suggestion that the problems arose because Labour wanted to vote on the amendments is silly: voting in amendments is what Parliament does.

However, I also think it likely the SNP would have found a different reason to proteat if they had had enough time.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 15 Jun 18 - 04:13 AM

Whatever is going on in the Labour Party, it is the Tories who have to steer Britain through the mess this appalling decision has caused and it is they who are making a mess of it - a divided cabinet, the reliance on the Whips to get a Government resolution accepted, the reliance on bunging a billion of British taxpayers money to a sectarian party with terrorist links and an attitude to the rights of women that have never left Jurassic Park...
Labour are, as are all the parties, in the position of having to balance the tightrope between a death-wish decision for Britain and a vote largely carried by appealing to Xenophobia - not an enviable place for any party to be.
But the pathetic day-by-day shambolic performance of those responsible for governance of the country has made Britain the laughing stock of the world
Whataboutism - are you kidding !!!
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 15 Jun 18 - 03:55 AM

A fine example of high dudgeon by elements from both sides!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 15 Jun 18 - 03:49 AM

Rag,
An article I read today in the Guardian seems to indicate that the Tory party is at odds with itself.

Daily Mirror yesterday,
"Labour MPs have staged a mass revolt against Jeremy Corbyn as 90 defied him to take part in a vote on Soft Brexit.
The Labour leader told his MPs to keep their noses out of a vote on whether Britain should stay in the European Economic Area (EEA).


But 75 Labour MPs rebelled to back the EEA - the so-called 'Norway model'. Another 15 Labour MPs rebelled to vote against it.
Of the 90 rebels, six were Labour frontbenchers who were forced to resign."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/90-labour-mps-rebelled-over-12701636

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 14 Jun 18 - 04:06 PM

Is this the one?

There seems to be very high risk brinkmanship going on. As far as I can tell May decided to change a vote she was about to lose into one around a week later that she will probably lose but might not. But this comes at a significant cost to her in terms of trust. It will be interesting to hear what Dominic Grieve says on Question Time this evening.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 14 Jun 18 - 02:20 PM

I'm a bit out of touch at the moment due to not having daily access to either the media or the internet but it would seem that Teresa May is not keeping even her own party happy.

An article I read today in the Guardian seems to indicate that the Tory party is at odds with itself.

If someone could link to the article entitled Tory Rebellion back on after MP's reject May's Brexit ammendment I would be grateful.

For those of you who support Brexit are you not concerned that even people who one could expect to support Brexit are having serious concerns.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 07 Jun 18 - 02:10 PM

I am not sure it is worth saying much until after Tuesday's votes. I simply shake my head at the way the government is happy to produce a proposal that stands no chamce of being acceptable, while Labour insists on backing a new amendment in a vote that no-one expects it to win, in support of a proposal that is also very unlikely to be acceptable to the EU because it is too "cake and eat it'.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 07 Jun 18 - 01:23 PM

Wonder why.........?
Probably because the lowest value recently was 1.12537. It has since risen. Did you miss it?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 07 Jun 18 - 01:14 PM

I note that although a post was made when the pound "soared" to 1.15 Euro's no mention has been made of it's subsequent "plummet" to 1.13 Euro's.

Wonder why ...........?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 05 Jun 18 - 04:57 AM

12 hours minus 4 hrs for voting, divided by 15 topics is about half an hour each. I do not regard that as "plenty of time."

Leaving Brexit and the details of this topic aside for the moment, the whole mechanism of our system is that the revising chamber identifies area of a bills where it recommends the commons thinks more carefully. Having done so, the Commons may leave things unchanged or modify the proposal to address the concerns.

I do not agree that can be done adequately in 30 minutes (on average).

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 05 Jun 18 - 04:44 AM

Plenty of time to debate each amendment.
According to today's Telegraph (p2): "The House of Commons will spend more than 12 hours debating and voting on the amendments in a marathon session next Tuesday which is expected to go on into the early hours."

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: peteglasgow
Date: 05 Jun 18 - 04:10 AM

no. and of course it's a very worrying tactic in steamrolling through a flawed, incomplete and harmful 'policy' Are our government really resorting to Trump tactics, steering toward the american model in their idiotic desire to reject european values like democracy proper process?

and - oh my sweet Jesus- will no-one think of the children and families? i seem to dimly recall that the government promised that they would sort this out right away. this when they were accused of using individuals as 'bargaining chips' - well, we still are and nothing is secure.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 04 Jun 18 - 01:34 PM

So votes on all 15 Lords amendments will take place on 12 June, it seems. The physical mechanics of voting takes around 15 minutes, so that's the best part of 4 hours of the day gone. Doesn't exactly leave a lot of time to actually debate each amendment, does it?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 04 Jun 18 - 03:24 AM

Apologies for the spurious words I added to both Pete and Nigels formulations.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 04 Jun 18 - 02:19 AM

In my opinion, pete's formulation (no no-one really knows the full extent ...) is superior to Nigel's (No-one really knows the whether ...)

To begin with, pete's includes zero, so it subsumes the 'whether'. Then it is has a numerical value and so gives more information, whereas 'whether' is Boolean and so is less informative (in the information-theoretic sense.)

SO I don't think it can be classed as a false premise.

More legitimate would be to object to the framing. Pete's formulation refers to the full extent of the damage: it would be possible to reframe this as "no-one know the full extent of the benefits", which gives the same information, just changing the sign.

However, there are good reasons to use the 'damage' formulation, because it is standard business practice to do so: there is plenty you can read up online about risk assessment. But in short, the technique is to think about something and list all the problems it could have. Then alongside each of those you list what the impact if it occurs would be, an estimate of how probable it is and what you are doing to mitigate the risk.

All standard business practice. It doesn't matter how often people shout "Project Fear! Project Fear!", that is the normal method used throughout businesses everywhere. Nor do you wait until everything is over before carrying out the analysis; it is generally a business requirement to do it before attempting any change.

Pete's phraseology is in accord with that standard practice.

I have looked long and hard for any sign such an analysis has been done. Occasionally you get a leak to suggest something along those lines has been at least partially done, but it invariably dismissed as 'a working paper' or some such.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 03 Jun 18 - 07:27 PM

From: peteaberdeen
Date: 03 Jun 18 - 07:41 AM
no-one really knows the full extent of how much the uk will be damaged economically or politically.

Start an argument with a false premise, and then build on it.
Try: No-one really knows the whether the UK will be damaged economically or politically.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 03 Jun 18 - 01:53 PM

PSNI station sales on hold over Brexit uncertainty

While this is precautionary, it does not send a 'good signal', and emphasises the need to get the border sorted.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 03 Jun 18 - 08:42 AM

Pete, I do not agree that we have shown "wilful disregard for co-operation with our neighbours."

We had hoped to continue exchanging intelligence and being part of military projects like Galileo.
It is the EU saying that will have to stop even though it is mutually beneficial.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 03 Jun 18 - 08:19 AM

I don't have anything really to add to that, pete, but I thought I'd demonstrate I had read it! I agree no-one knows how things will turn out, and maybe Iain is right to suggest in 50 years the historians might be wondering what all the fuss was about. But viewed from here and now, that's not how it looks to me.

Well done, Backwoodsman and Keith, though, in agreeing to let others judge who had the stronger case - I trust no-one is gauche enough to post their opinion on that: decide, yes, post, no.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: peteglasgow
Date: 03 Jun 18 - 07:41 AM

no-one really knows the full extent of how much the uk will be damaged economically or politically. however, with the current shambles of a government it is not looking good. could any of us really feel secure that they will protect our interests effeciently.

anyway, we can already begin to see the effects socially. apart from the uncertainty felt by millions of civilians here and abroad there is the the wilful disregard for co-operation with our neighbours and, ultimately, the peace of the continent.

of course the EU has its problems but i would be much happier in a country that is part of the solution, instead of insulting our friends and stomping off in a disorganised and incoherent huff.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 03 Jun 18 - 07:15 AM

Me too.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 03 Jun 18 - 06:37 AM

I've made my points (twice) and supported them with evidence. Now I'm perfectly happy to leave it and allow others to judge which of us has made the best case.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 03 Jun 18 - 05:33 AM

BWM,
I originally said EU had reason to lie about the border because they do not want Brexit to happen.
Leave won the referendum and have no reason now to lie about the border.

Before the vote both sides exagerated and streched the truth.
It was all thrashed out in the open, claims were challenged and debated in public, and we got a result.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 03 Jun 18 - 05:22 AM

"I assume any response from Brexit supporters will offer nothing more than hope that all our deals will be great ones."

Hopes are all they've got, DMcG. They voted Leave on the basis of nothing more than hopes - no solid factual evidence, no plan for the execution of Brexit should they win, just slogans, sound bites, and lies to bamboozle the racists, the xenophobes, and the feeble-minded. The proof of the lack of conviction of the three main characters in the Leave campaign of the strength of their case was in the way they promptly ran away when it was was announced that they'd won.

Now, here we are two years later, barely any further on, teetering on the brink of disaster, and the clock ticking ever-louder. And in reply to questions about 'any good news on Brexit yet', the' best response fools can come up with is, "We haven't left yet"!

But hey-ho, the tiny immensely wealthy cadre who are giving the government their instructions and driving us towards the cliff-edge of Hard-Brexit are happy, their wealth will be protected, even if the rest of us face hardship, or Irishmen start kicking lumps off each other again. So that's alright then.....

You really couldn't make this pile of crap up.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 03 Jun 18 - 04:54 AM

AN interesting opinion piece about trade here.

It is one of the main reasons I was pro-Remain, and why I think a hard Brexit is likely to be disastrous. Freedom to negotiate your own dal is of no economic value whatsoever unless those are better than the alternative. In the case of the US, it was obvious from the start how weak our position would be, and this tariff move from Trump makes it even more obvious.


I assume any response from Brexit supporters will offer nothing more than hope that all our deals will be great ones.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 02 Jun 18 - 05:35 PM

"yes it was, but no-one promised to stop immigration as you claimed"

Yes Keefy, I used the wrong word, I said 'stop', I should have said 'control'. Well spotted, award yourself the Nitpicker-of-the-Year badge. But we're discussing here your claim regarding the possibility of the EU lying to stop Brexit vs. the actual documented lies of the Leave campaign to achieve their referendum majority. A supporter of a group of proven liars really isn't in any position to accuse others of dishonesty. People in glass-houses etc.

Your survey claims that a large proportion of voters believed the bus claim, but it was massively debated at the time and the Remain camp made a big issue of it.

But it was a lie, it was believed by many Leave voters, and they voted accordingly. But we're discussing here your claim regarding the possibility of the EU lying to stop Brexit vs. the actual documented lies of the Leave campaign to achieve their referendum majority. A supporter of a group of proven liars really isn't in any position to accuse others of dishonesty. People in glass-houses etc.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 02 Jun 18 - 04:20 PM

Nonsense. Immigration control was at the very core of the Leave campaign...

yes it was, but no-one promised to stop immigration as you claimed.

Your survey claims that a large proportion of voters believed the bus claim, but it was massively debated at the time and the Remain camp made a big issue of it.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 02 Jun 18 - 03:41 PM

"It is the elite who want to remain."

Some, perhaps. Plenty of the wealthiest, most influential, who want to leave,...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-leave-eu-campaign-arron-banks-jeremy-hosking-five-uk-richest-businessmen-p


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-donations-ten-wealthy-political-donors-make-up-half-vote-lea


https://infacts.org/super-rich-bought-brexit-victory/

"No-one promised to stop immigration".

Nonsense. Immigration control was at the very core of the Leave campaign...

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_immigration.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36375492

https://www.europeanlawmonitor.org/eu-referendum-topics/summary-of-vote-leave-misrepresentations-on-immigration.html


"The bus claim was fully debated at the time, and well before the vote."

It may have been debated, but there were still a very great many who believed the slogan on the bus, that leaving the EU would result in £350 million extra per week for the NHS, and voted accordingly...

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/new-poll-suggests-third-brits-11027263

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal.html

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 02 Jun 18 - 03:09 PM

It is the elite who want to remain.
No-one promised to stop immigration.
The bus claim was fully debated at the time, and well before the vote.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 02 Jun 18 - 02:29 PM

"I believe them. UK have no reason to lie. EU does. They do not want Brexit."

Like they had no reason to lie about '£350 million a week for the NHS', or 'stop immigration'?

They have every reason to lie - they are determined to crash out of the EU at any cost, because doing so will benefit the immensely-wealthy tiny minority of Elites who are giving May and her cohort their instructions. As long as they can continue offshoring and avoiding paying taxes, what does it matter to them if the Irish start kicking lumps out of each other again? They don't give a FF about anything but their own wealth.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 02 Jun 18 - 02:18 PM

It will take more thna denial to convince the people here

Your side is also just denying, but you can not deny that a trade deal will mean no change at the border anyway.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 02 Jun 18 - 01:38 PM

" Your view obviously differs."
Obviously - my view is from Ireland - yours is not
It will take more thna denial to convince the people here
Mkae your case
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 02 Jun 18 - 01:32 PM

It is very much a political ploy. Your view obviously differs. It will be interesting in 50 years, to see how the history books view it, when dispassionate analysis prevails. The border issue is of far more significance to the south.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/0913/904427-irish-exports-to-uk/

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 02 Jun 18 - 01:24 PM

Jim, it is because it is so vital that it can be used to try and stop Brexit. I think that is what is happening.

If a free trade deal is agreed, there is no border problem .
If not, the volume of trade across that border is very small anyway.
UK says it can be left open without significant problems.
I believe them. UK have no reason to lie. EU does. They do not want Brexit.

It would be utterly impossible to monitor all the 200+ crossings anyway.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 02 Jun 18 - 01:14 PM

"It is obvious to me the EU see the Irish border as the achilles heel for them to focus on. "
Then you miss the point entirely
The issue of the Border is vital to Ireland - both North and south
Until you/the UK grasp that particular nettle you will never understand the situation Britain is in
One of the most important aspects of keeping an open border is the fact that it is very much a part of the Peace Process and how the two halves of Ireland relate to each other
Suggesting that it is a political ploy is shortsighted beyond belief
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 02 Jun 18 - 01:06 PM

"It is a matter of logic for me if the EU sabotage every possible solution presented then it is time to walk without a deal."

Expressions like 'cutting your nose off to spite your face', 'throwing teddy out of the pram', and 'leaving the game and taking your ball home with you" spring to mind.

If, as you claim (although there doesn't seem to be a great deal of hard evidence, just your own rabidly pro-Brexit opinion) the EU 'sabotage every possible solution presented', that suggests to me that our negotiators are either insufficiently competent to devise a solution which works for all parties, or insufficiently skilled at the art of persuasion, or both.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 02 Jun 18 - 01:00 PM

The EU may scream first Iains, but I would bet we will scream, longer, louder, later.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 02 Jun 18 - 08:23 AM

It is obvious to me the EU see the Irish border as the achilles heel for them to focus on. The issues raised go to the heart of the future EU.
Some see it as a progression to a centrist society where the nation state is rendered redundant. Others see the future differently. No matter what terms you want to use, be it federalist, centrist, whatever,not everyone agrees. If Brexit occurs, the EU view is that the entire edifice they are aiming for may come crashing down. Where Britain goes, others will follow. The differing economies and disparities between the north and south will shortly see the euro wake up to reality. The EU made no attempt to negotiate with the UK from within the EU, now they must negotiate with us leaving. They effectively destroyed the unity themselves. Where Britain, goes others will follow and the euro will sink to oblivion. Politics cannot fight economic realities.
The european leaders will stop at nothing to bring their nightmare future to fruition, hence the continual frustration of the Brexit negotiations.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 02 Jun 18 - 07:50 AM

I don't think you can regard the EU as sabotaging every possible solution unless the proposals made *are* possible solutions, which means we must believe they fully meet what was agreed in December. The EU might disagree, but we have to believe it in the first place.

Neither of the proposals so far meets that standard, nor does Max Fac 2.

Davis proposed Max Fac 2 having finally understood that the technological approach is infeasible. (Quoting the Sun for variety: "Mr Davis ordered it after he was persuaded to abandon a technology based solution to keep the Irish border open.")

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 02 Jun 18 - 07:30 AM

" It is a matter of logic, therefore, that it's the UK's responsibility to put forward a workable solution acceptable to all sides."

It is a matter of logic for me if the EU sabotage every possible solution presented then it is time to walk without a deal.
Who will scream first I wonder?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 02 Jun 18 - 07:01 AM

The Brexit Campaigners caused this situation by campaigning for an action without any in-depth study of the problems it would invoke,

i disagree with that.

It is a matter of logic, therefore, that it's the UK's responsibility to put forward a workable solution acceptable to all sides

Yes, but EU are saying that workable solutions are unacceptable, just to subvert the process.