BS: Post Brexit life in the UK

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 25 Oct 17 - 09:27 AM

Isn't it wonderful, the fantastic growth rate in the UK economy published today.

Growth Rate

I wonder if the Labour Government, last in power in 2010, over seven years ago will get the blame.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Teribus
Date: 25 Oct 17 - 09:33 AM

Sorry DMcG where did I say, or even infer that?

What I did say was that you can be far more precise in saying, or writing, exactly what you mean in French than you can in English. Now what on earth has that got to do with the earning potential of the legal profession in France? Reason and logic would suggest nothing - as I am sure you are well aware.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 25 Oct 17 - 09:53 AM

Others can check what you said and decide what you meant.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Teribus
Date: 25 Oct 17 - 09:58 AM

Ah, so in other words, you cannot point out where I made any reference to the earning potential of those employed in the French legal profession. Why not just say so DMcG?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 25 Oct 17 - 10:18 AM

From: Teribus - PM
Date: 25 Oct 17 - 08:45 AM
By the way DMcG the legal profession makes the money it does solely because "English" is one of the most imprecise languages on the planet, the opposite can be said of French, which is why for centuries the language of diplomacy was French.

Sorry, Teribus.
I'll have to disagree on this one.
English is the most precise of languages (if used properly)because of the available vocabulary. A word can usually be found with the precise nuance required to give the exact intended meaning.
Unfortunately people who work on the assumption that any, and all, of the words listed together in a thesaurus (such as 'cheap' 'cut-price' and 'bargain') are fully interchangeable, will not be able to use the language in a precise manner.
The legal profession make their money because they will take the care to draw up documents using the 'correct' words, to avoid the possibility of other legal experts later disputing the meaning of the documents.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 25 Oct 17 - 11:06 AM

As you are well aware by now, I try not to get drawn into pointless arguments. So I referred people back to the original posts, no more, no less.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 Oct 17 - 12:05 PM

I hope you've stopped laughing, John. The corset shop closes at five, you know.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 25 Oct 17 - 01:05 PM

I agree, Nigel. It is one of many areas of academia I have only had the slightest of links to but I remember reading a paper round about 1976 about the comparative efficiencies of languages when trying to express concepts. It was a fascinating idea and I regret I know so little about it. I hope it hasn't fallen entirely out of favour - I can imagine all sorts of political judgements being made by those on the outside of the research.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Teribus
Date: 25 Oct 17 - 02:42 PM

No problem at all Nigel, my experience has been the opposite in the course of my work most probably due to the qualification you stated. One example that springs to mind related to what was meant by the word "flooded" in relation to a pipeline, one interpretation meant that work could proceed immediately (The interpretation as understood by the Contractor) another interpretation meant a delay of 36 hours (The interpretation as understood by the Client). The Contractor's understanding was the one acted on as:

1: The Job was lump sum;
2: The work was not finished;
3: The risk was the Contractors;
4: The Client had yet to signed off and take charge of the pipeline in question.

For the Client's understanding the word used in their job specification should have been "filled" not "flooded".

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 06:30 AM

"Isn't it wonderful, the fantastic growth rate in the UK economy published today."

"33% better than forecast. Bloody Brexit. The gift that just keeps on giving."

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 06:31 AM

33% of SFA is still SFA

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 06:53 AM

Titanic anyone?
Or is it more a fantasy:
   The Owl and the Pussy-cat went to sea
   In a beautiful pea-green boat,
   They took some honey, and plenty of money,
   Wrapped up in a five-pound note.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/23/strained-french-german-ties-rudderless-eu-losing-europe--commentary.html

Now for a sneaky little item kept well below the twitching radar:

https://www.ukcolumn.org/article/exclusive-eu-take-control-british-nuclear-deterrent

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 10:43 AM

Daily Telegraph one hour ago,
"by Tom Rees
25 October 2017 ? 6:07pm
Sterling soared on currency markets after a preliminary estimate showed that the UK economy grew by 0.4pc in the third quarter, ahead of economists' expectations."

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 11:18 AM

Sterling soared did it.

Did you check the figure before you posted?

Sterling has "soared" by half of one cent, not half of one percent, but half of one cent.

I notice you didn't mention the lead story "Retailers on edge as sales dive at fastest pace since the financial crisis"

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 11:18 AM

I am confused, Keith. In this thread and elsewhere those who support Brexit have been saying the fall to date doesn't matter much. So while I welcome the rise I don't really see why you do.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Teribus
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 12:14 PM

I too am confused DMcG - Mostly by Raggy's idiotic post 26 Oct 17 - 06:31 AM.

UK growth is better than predicted = so the remoaners have to disparage that because just the decision to leave according to the lies and propaganda you listened to meant the ruination of the UK even before Brexit occurs. Not quite working out that way though - IS IT?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 12:37 PM

No, T, my confusion comes from the argument being put forward that a rise in the exchanges rate is great news but that a fall doesn't matter much. It is the asymmetry that I find odd.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Teribus
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 01:01 PM

Recent currency fluctuations do not mean much with regard to Brexit, because they are not outwith anything experienced in the past.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Stu
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 02:31 PM

Sterling has lost value since the Brexit vote. Keith's observation might be a little over-enthusiastic but is basically correct, although it's the long run term that matters. Not that Brexiteers actually understand the concept of 'long term'.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 02:36 PM

My post was a response to Rag's claim that the growth figures were bad.
In fact they were so good that they triggered a rise in sterling.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 02:41 PM

Not just the Telegraph.
The Independent 34 minutes ago,
"Pound soars against dollar and euro as better-than-expected growth increases likelihood of interest rate rise"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/pound-sterling-latest-exchange-rates-us-dollar-euro-uk-interest-rate-rise-economic-growth-a8019221.html

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 03:02 PM

Interesting perception. A rise of less than 1/2 of one percent equates to "soaring"

A consistent drop in excess of 14% equates to recent currency fluctuations.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Stu
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 03:12 PM

Told you. They don't understand 'long term'.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 03:29 PM

I would have thought Brexiteers understood long term far better than remainders. The referendum was directly about the long term. The future in or out of the EU. By what is happening in Spain, it is clear we are far better riding the train out of Dodge.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Stu
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 03:48 PM

"I would have thought Brexiteers understood long term far better than remainders."

Obviously not.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 06:00 PM

The pound has not soared. It's gone up today by a minuscule amount. Four or five weeks ago I was buying pounds for my holidays at two cents above today's rate. Don't talk rubbish, Keith. Growth has improved slightly over a single three-month period. Annual growth is still abysmally low, especially when set aside growth in the other major EU countries and the G7. There is nothing at all to cheer about. The brexiteers know that, of course, but from now until March 2019 we are solidly in brexiteer straw-clutching territory.

Our services sector is 80% of our economy. It is about to take a severe hit when the brexit barricades go up. Anyone heard much about this best-kept secret bombshell to come? Cue hubris about "London's place as the world's great finance hub..." Hubricate while you can, lads. The writing's on the wall. 80%...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Teribus
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 07:13 PM

"Soaring"? Take the choice of what word was applied up with the Independent Raggy.

Did the pound gain in strength? - Yes it did.

Will it always gain in strength? - No it won't. Currencies fluctuate and the fluctuations we have experienced since the Brexit Referendum are no different to any we have periodically experienced previously. In short the Pound Sterling has NOT gone through the floor as some remoaner tried to tell us all.

The dire predictions of voting "Leave" voiced by the Remain Campaign have not materialised, which must be rather galling for the likes of Shaw.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: akenaton
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 07:27 PM

His, and others, doom mongering would be funny if it was not so bloody counter productive....what are these people hoping to achieve by their interminable whining? Do they really think that if they weaken our negotiating stance enough that another referendum is possible...I think not.

Additionally if the impossible happened and we had to crawl back and beg to be readmitted on the old terms, do they really think that the EU are going to welcome us like old pals with open arms.

Not bloody likely, when the ball is back at their feet we will be made an example of, to ensure no more "Bolshie" withdrawals from the Fourth Reich.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 03:46 AM

Exercising my free speech in a democratic nation in order to disagree peacefully with what?s going on is beyond criticism. Silencing ?remoaners? would indeed feel like we were in a Fourth Reich. If such demurring weakens our negotiating position, well it doesn?t say much about our negotiating position, does it?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 03:46 AM

From: Raggytash - PM
Date: 26 Oct 17 - 03:02 PM
Interesting perception. A rise of less than 1/2 of one percent equates to "soaring"
A consistent drop in excess of 14% equates to recent currency fluctuations.

Once again this (often disproved) claim that there has been a 'consistent' drop in excess of 14% in the value of the pound (as seen against the Euro).
How many times do I have to point out that the pound has occasionally been trading at 14% below its pre-referendum rate, but for less than 3 of the last 16 months. This is not 'consistent'.
I would not argue if you claimed that the pound has consistently traded at a level below that seen immediately prior to the referendum (since that date) but you repeatedly use that misinformed claim to back up your arguments.
At close of business yesterday the rate was 1.12282, almost exactly 14% below the peak rate of 1.30562 seen immediately prior to the referendum.
Again, here are the actual details (for 2 years) Pound/Euro (2 year)

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 04:04 AM

You seem to believe because it has not been trading at 14% below the pre-referendum level for every second of the last 16 months this is something we should rejoice in.

The truth remains, immediately after the referendum vote the pound plummeted in value. Although the exchange rate has varied over that period it has not at any time got anywhere near its pre-referendum value.

Of course this has a negative impact on almost every aspect of our lives, fuel, food etc, etc. The people least able to afford this are always the people with lowerest incomes. They are the ones hit hardest.

It is abundantly clear that some of your compatriots do not care a fig about these people.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 04:16 AM

Perhaps we could get out of this somewhat sterile 14% argument if someone - and I suggest Nigel - were to say how far below the 'referendum day level' the pound has been for the majority of the time? Then we use that as an agreed set of figures to argue from.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Teribus
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 04:17 AM

"You seem to believe because it has not been trading at 14% below the pre-referendum level for every second of the last 16 months this is something we should rejoice in."

Ehmmmm No Raggy, you complained/objected to the use of the word "soaring" when used to describe the change in exchange rate. What Nigel is quite correctly pointing out is your inaccurate and misrepresentative use of the word "consistently". In using that word and the figure given by yourself you deliberately seek to misrepresent the actual situation. Nobody is necessarily "rejoicing" in anything, merely attempting to get the facts straight.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 04:26 AM

If ever there was a meaningless argument it is the present one about the exchange rate. The pound was on a correction cycle that started long before the referendum vote. There has been a valiant attempt to connect the exchange rate directly to the referendum result. It is nonsense.
Someone needs to provide a way of extracting the component of the downward slide due to the referendum result from the previously initiated correction cycle. Until that can be unambiguously constructed
further argument is futile.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 04:26 AM

No, I am just making clear that you are continuing to use a misleading statement. Never mind 'for every second'. For most of the post-referendum period the pound has not been trading 14% lower than its rate immediately prior to the referendum.

I have not discussed the effect of the exchange rate changes on the poorer people, and to suggest I am happy with the situation is insulting.

What I am doing is trying to point out that you do not help any arguments which you wish to make by falsifying the basis of those arguments.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 04:28 AM

Terikins, I know what the aim is.

The valuation of the pound has fluctuated over that period since held the referedum. It has consistently traded at a far lower level than before, not once has it got anywhere near it's pre-referendum level.

However you and your compatriots would rather argue about semantics of the difference between 14% or 12% than address the issue of the fall in the value of the pound.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 04:32 AM

As for soaring.

I would suggest someone saw a headline and jumped at the opportunity to post it on here without looking at the change in the exchange rate. An increase of 1/2 a cent in the value of the pound does not represent "soaring"

You know it, I know it, it would seem the professor doesn't.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 04:41 AM

Someone needs to provide a way of extracting the component of the downward slide due to the referendum result from the previously initiated correction cycle. Until that can be unambiguously constructed
further argument is futile.

You set too high a goak I think. Whether you are talking Brexit or any less critical financial analysis - profits from sales of Mr Kipling cakes for example - youu will never get a clear unambigous cause and effect like that - there are too many factors, the world is too interwovwn. But it is ppssible to get indicative measurements. It is a hard and subtle task

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Teribus
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 04:46 AM

Steve Shaw - 26 Oct 17 - 06:00 PM

"Our services sector is 80% of our economy. It is about to take a severe hit when the brexit barricades go up."

Really HOW? I ask as our services sector industries look to three markets - Domestic (Unaffected by anything connected to us leaving the EU); Foreign - International/world-wide (Unaffected by anything connected to us leaving the EU); Foreign - EU. Of the three the first two detailed far outweigh the third.

Dying to hear how this severe hit will come about. Once more I think we will have Shaw havering on about something he knows absolutely nothing about. Yet another baseless "gloom'n'doom" prediction from a "remoaner".

Floors yours.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 04:48 AM

Sigh. I pressed 'submit' when I was part way though editing. But I reckon most people can figure out where I was going.

All I had left to say is there are well known techniques for extracting trends due one factor when there is enough data elsewhere, such as other currencies. But you will obtain data that always needs qualification: it will never be unambigous. Yet it is the ambigous data that all financial decisions everywhere use.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 05:06 AM

In the days after the referendum the Irish Finance Minister was rubbing his hand in glee at the number of approaches he had received from major finance organisations looking to relocate some of their operations to Dublin. He was frequently on television and reported in the press reveling in the prospect of new business for the Irish economy.

How many companies and how much business is transferred remains to be seen. Watch this space.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Teribus
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 05:13 AM

Hate to point this out to you Raggy but in terms of international finance if Paris does not feature as an international finance hub, where on earth do you reckon Dublin features? I take it that the Irish Government will earn the same vast sums in terms of corporation tax that they receive from the existing multi-nationals - i.e. basically S.F.A.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 05:16 AM

Like I said, watch this space.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 07:00 AM

Steve,
The pound has not soared...... Don't talk rubbish, Keith.

It was not me talking. It was the Telegraph and the Independent, but they are not known for their ignorance of economic issues or for talking rubbish about anything.

My point was that the growth figures, far from being terrible as Rag stated, were actually good enough to trigger a rise in Sterling.
He was talking rubbish, not me.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 07:04 AM

Ha, ha, brilliant professor.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 07:11 AM

Yes Rag.
You did rubbish the growth figures which were recognised by everyone else to be rather good.
Rubbish from you, facts from me.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 07:34 AM

If the figure is set at 0.3% and the actually is 0.4% we the target has been excelled but 0.04% still equates to SFA when compared the nearly every other economy.

(Nigel, Iains the figure are given as examples and are not meant to signify the actual figures ........... we don't really want to go done that line again .... do we)

The truth is that nearly every economy in the world has growth greater then the UK with the exception of Brazil.

Yippee!! Time to get your union flag underpants on again.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 09:57 AM

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash - PM
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 07:34 AM
If the figure is set at 0.3% and the actually is 0.4% we the target has been excelled but 0.04% still equates to SFA when compared the nearly every other economy.
(Nigel, Iains the figure are given as examples and are not meant to signify the actual figures ........... we don't really want to go done that line again .... do we)

Sorry, I'm completely lost now. If "the figures don't signify actual figures", what, if any, is the point of quoting them, and using them to try to build an argument?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 09:58 AM

The economists regard the figures as good.
Raggytash does not.
Who to believe?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 Oct 17 - 10:03 AM

Merely pointing out that previous imputs had been squabbling about precise figures................... to the detriment of the main discussion.