BS: Post Brexit life in the UK

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 07:47 AM

Political instability doesn't get much worse than trying to oust the current leader, which is apparently being discussed by Tory MP's.

Tory Unrest

I could suggest that before you start castigating remainers you have a look at your own party, which seems to be in an ever present state of turmoil.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 07:44 AM

From: Steve Shaw
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 06:56 AM
I don't care what the truth is or isn't, frankly.

Yes, we'd noticed.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 07:43 AM

"D the G Do you not think that constantly screeching,wailing, whining, moaning remainers create political instability? Come back to planet earth!"

I think you will find that most of the political instability comes from within the present Government. The Prime Minister has disowned comments made by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Johnson undermining the official position on NHS funding, Rees Mogg stating that the Government is cowed by Brussels, Owen Patterson having a dig at both the Brexit Secretary and the Chancellor, Iain Duncan Smith putting his tuppence worth in, Speculation about how long Teresa May can remain in office. I could go on, that lot is just in todays papers.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 07:24 AM

D the G Do you not think that constantly screeching,wailing, whining, moaning remainers create political instability? Come back to planet earth!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 06:58 AM

Rees-Mogg in charge would be an absolute gift to Labour. Bring it on, say I!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 06:56 AM

I don't care what the truth is or isn't, frankly. The conversation here is not a heart-on-sleeves one about deep-rooted long-term cause and effect. We are simply describing what's happened. And one thing that happened is that the pound suddenly plunged as soon as the leave vote was confirmed. In my mind there's no doubt as to why the pound plunged, but hey-ho, we're told it was an overdue "correction." Yeah, right, not brexit's fault then! Next thing we're told is that remainers are causing the pound to wobble. Yeah, right. And your piece is over two years old, by the way. Perhaps you could explain why, in spite of a terrible election result for the Tories, terrible divisions in the ruling party and shocking and ongoing stasis in the brexit negotiations, the pound hasn't wobbled very much at all in the last four or five months. Since last August I've been looking out every single day for a good time to top up next year's holiday money. I didn't make a single move until Wednesday this week. Looks like it wasn't a bad move, but we'll see. Don't like it up 'em? Just keeping soldiering on, that's all.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 06:50 AM

On 8 October I asked 'Who will conservative leader in six months time?"
Rees Mogg I hope. A man with a clear objective and a mission to accomplish it.

Bring it on I say!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 06:49 AM

My jumps in logic are astounding? Neither of the scenarios I used as examples were arguments. They merely demonstrated the fact that the logic of blaming people who disagree with brexit being somehow to blame for the problems it has caused is, well, illogical. I am sure the Jesuits taught you better reasoning than this.

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 06:38 AM

Very predictable behaviour:



https://www.fxcm.com/insights/what-causes-volatility-in-the-british-pound/
They don't like the truth at 'em. Not one little bit!(with apologies to lance corporal Jones)

D the G your jumps in logic are astounding. Did you fall through the looking glass this morning or merely smack into it?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 06:31 AM

The Tories are still in only because there hasn't been a regime change. There is no credible alternative to the woman who is already devoid of credibility, and a regime change that puts in a similarly weak and divisive figure will immediately produce an irresistible call for a general election. I don't think anyone in our political club wants that just now, including Jeremy Corbyn, what with the poisoned chalice that comes with the PM's job. There was an interesting cri de couer on Question Time last night when there was a plea for some leadership from Corbyn, for him to speak up for what people really want, instead of his continuing with his apparently pusillanimous wait-and-see attitude. I hope it's a tactic and not something born of indecision. It comes across as paralysis. This country desperately needs an alternative to this stupid brexit steamroller. He's the only person who can provide it with any degree of effectiveness.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 05:51 AM

On 8 October I asked 'Who will conservative leader in six months time?" to which Teribus replied " Unless the Parliamentary Conservative Party want to be out of office in quick time the leader of the Conservative Party in six months time will be Theresa May. "

Which makes the current *rumours* of Regime Change interesting. Ok, they are rumours but the division in the view of Rees-Mogg and Hammond is clear.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 05:17 AM

Well partly the fault, just to stop my throat being jumped down.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 05:14 AM

The biggest recent "gyration" of the pound by a country mile took place immediately after the pro-brexit vote, so don't blame me! In fact, if you go back to Nigel's graph and click on the one-year tab you'll see that the pound has been pretty steady since around the end of August, with just the little flickers up and down that are typical of currency fluctuations in general. It's true that the pound essayed a slightly bigger flicker this week, but in spite of all the brave brexiteer talk of a breakthrough it's business as usual today. Interesting that when the brexiteers won the fight and the pound plunged, it's a "correction." But when those much littler "gyrations" take place, it's all the fault of us whingeing remoaners. Very entertaining!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 04:52 AM

So the argument follows that those that cannot accept the democratic vote for brexit are directly responsible for the present gyrations of the pound.

Only in the world of Lewis Carroll

"When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean?neither more nor less." "The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things." "The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master?that's all.?

Following your logic, those who complain about the present government are responsible for demise of the health service and those who hated Clive Dunn's 'Grandad' were responsible for it reaching number 1!

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 04:40 AM

One argument advanced for currency instability is political uncertainty.
So the argument follows that those that cannot accept the democratic vote for brexit are directly responsible for the present gyrations of the pound.
It is of course but one of many factors influencing exchange rates. The one that is dominant is a mute point.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 04:29 AM

The information that was given in the link accorded with its having been supplied early yesterday morning. That was pretty obvious as soon as I read it.

Anyway, the bottom line is that the pound is languishing this morning at the level it's been at for about the last four or five months. The rate I can get from Caxton this morning for my holiday money is a cent and a half lower than when I bought some less than 48 hours ago. One swallow clearly did not a summer make.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 02:21 AM

A bit off topic, but worth being aware of. While search engines trawl the net it takes time. So times shown in search engines tend to be when the search engine saw the article, not when the article was written. It is why you sometimes see "5 minutes ago" on an article months old.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 26 Jan 18 - 01:38 AM

Steve,
"Three hours ago" my arse, Keith. That was last modified at 0739 this morning and it is now over TEN hours past that. Bad day for the pound, even worse day for your timekeeping.

The search engine said 3 hours so it must have been revised.
It is now shown as 16 hours.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 06:56 PM

Of course. But those wealthy pensioners of yours have been hit by a double whammy, low savings rates and a weak pound, and, on top of that, the old age pension in this country is one of the worst in the developed world. Look it up anywhere you like if you don't believe me. They won't be taking quite as many of those foreign holidays this year. Joining their ranks in years to come will be pensioners who will not only have worked to the point of exhaustion as pensionable ages go up and up but who will also have far poorer works pensions than were enjoyed by earlier generations.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 06:22 PM

"they have actually suffered from ten-year rock-bottom savings rates)"

I am more than happy to have rock bottom savings rates if it saves younger house owners from the horror of 13%+ mortgage rates that I and many others had to put up with for a period.
Also If you look at historical exchange rates since the euro was introduced stability has not really occurred, volatility is the name of the game. Historic lows occurred in 2009 that have not yet been equalled. All those currency traders hate stability, it must erode their margins.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 05:54 PM

That was a disgraceful and arrogant response from your MP, DMcG.

But Iains, he's one of you!

I haven't passed any comment about the pros and cons of either a weak or strong currency. The recent argument here is more about what's actually happening to the pound vs the euro right now. Yes, one swallow does not a summer make. But the pound has been hovering around its current level for many months now, give or take a few cents here and there. You attack for the sake of attacking. A little more attention to the skill of reading passed on to you by well-educated teachers wouldn't come amiss and would help you to focus on what's actually being said here instead of what you wish had been said so that you can go into attack mode.

And, as a matter of fact, a strong pound makes buying foreign goods cheaper. It isn't just those wealthy pensioners, whoever they are - it certainly isn't the majority of them - who benefit (they have actually suffered from ten-year rock-bottom savings rates). A sudden weakening of the pound, as we've seen, causes an inflationary bubble, and that's happened at a time when pay hasn't kept up. No black and white here, but some stability would be a good thing.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 05:14 PM

He is just there to trough the scran!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 04:14 PM

Above, in regard to the amendments to the Withdrawal Bill (2nd reading) I said I wrote [to my MP] earlier in the week ...
I do not expect anything very productive in response, but it seemed the least I could do.

I have just received his response, and it is even more underwhelming than I anticipated. Here is my original email and his response:

--------
I am sure you will agree that this Withdrawal Bill is one of the most important of the session, and it will have implications lasting many years.

I happened to be able to watch the televised debates and was unable to see you in the chamber. Please assure me that you were present for the debates, not simply the votes. If you were not present but occupied on other business, I would be pleased to hear what it was and why you regard it as more significant.

------------

And here is his reply in full:

Dear Mr McGlade

Thank you for your email.

My duties are many and varied. I don't spend all my time in the chamber.

Regards

Royston Smith MP

-------------

I think we can safely translate "don't spend all my time" as "didn't spend any time" as far as this bill is concerned. And as for explaining why his other duties were more important, well, he seems to have accidentally forgotten that...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 01:07 PM

There is very little point in trying to make an argument from short term volatility of the pound euro exchange rate when merely measured over hours. It is the trend that is all important.
A well educated scientist/biologist should know better than most that "one swallow does not a summer make".


http://uk.businessinsider.com/european-central-bank-monetary-policy-decisions-for-january-2018-1

Having a strong currency is not a win win situation apart from those wealthy pensioners taking endless over seas vacations.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 12:53 PM

"Three hours ago" my arse, Keith. That was last modified at 0739 this morning and it is now over TEN hours past that. Bad day for the pound, even worse day for your timekeeping.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 12:24 PM

3 hours ago,
"The GBP/EUR exchange rate has risen sharply over the course of the past 24 hours and finds itself at 1.1457 having gone as high as 1.1493 at one point earlier in the day.
The exchange rate opened the day at 1.1383, the strength of the move confirms the UK currency currently enjoys positive momentum and on this basis we would expect further advances."
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/8377-the-pound-to-euro-reaches-key-make-or-break-level

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 12:12 PM

Wrong, Nigel. Have another look at the graph in your link and click on the 12-hour time frame. The pound has had a bad day today. Unarguable I'm afraid.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 12:09 PM

The best rate I can find online is 1.13 exactly, but you have to pay by bank transfer only and you pay five quid for delivery unless you buy £700 worth. I buy my holiday money in smaller amounts than that, keeping a hawkish eye on daily rates, by loading my prepaid Caxton card via an app.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 11:55 AM

The pound continues its downward soar, Keith.
The figures don't appear to support your claim.
Maybe you're just using a poor supplier.
Exchange rates graph

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 11:55 AM

As a matter of fact, all the other sections were not just hard facts. There are plenty of predictions and conjecture in there. Please don't make me quote them. We can all read. To be kind, you also can read but you do have an extra-special skill on top, that of deliberately misrepresenting things in favour of your argument and hoping we won't notice. Very Wheatcroftesque of you. Anyway, the pound is falling. Put that in your pipe and inhale it.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 11:42 AM

"This afternoon I can get 1.13949 Euro's to the pound, Tourist rate I do understand, and not the official exchange rate."

Where are you getting that, Raggytash? That's two and a half cents better then Caxton, who are rarely bettered!

My current Caxton rate is 1.1150, which is over a cent lower than when I bought my dosh yesterday afternoon. The pound continues its downward soar, Keith.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 11:41 AM

Because that last section was just guesses about the future.
All the other sections were hard facts in line with the quote I gave.
That is why I did not cherry pick the last section (like you did.)

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 11:37 AM

I read the whole bloody thing, Keith, and noticed that last bit that was unfavourable to your case. Asking why you failed to mention it isn't me cherrypicking!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 11:28 AM

Pray tell Bobad, what has your post got to do with Brexit?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: bobad
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 10:33 AM

"Try sticking to the issues. You?re making a fool of yourself. Please take this as a polite early warning that your recent posting behaviour is being archived. Any more of it and I?ll complain,"

Did someone really post that? lololololololol!!!!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 10:32 AM

Steve,
You cherrypicked that article, Keith. Read it again then tell us why you chose not to quote the very last section of it.

because that last section was just guesses about the future.
All the other sections were hard facts in line with the quote I gave.
That is why I did not cherry pick the last section (like you did.)

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 10:01 AM

This afternoon I can get 1.13949 Euro's to the pound, Tourist rate I do understand, and not the official exchange rate.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 09:44 AM

Well the amount of euros I can get for my hundred quid with Caxton has slipped by a third of a cent per quid since a couple of hours ago. That's on top of that nearly half a cent slip I mentioned between when I bought them yesterday up to this morning. The pound is soaring down again.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 08:55 AM

I'm not claiming it was overvalued for the whole of that time. But it was only in Jan 2015 that it started to go above a rate of 1.3 (unless you go back to 2008).

But you must realise (well, should realise) that looking at a graph of the exchange rate between the Pound & the Euro does not actually tell you much about the 'real' value of the Pound. That is why the page I linked to commented on comparing Sterling to 'a range of currencies'.
If the Pound rate improves when looking at the Pound/Euro exchange rate, it can mean either that the Pound is doing well, or the Euro is doing badly (or a bit of both).

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 08:03 AM

Nigel, the last time the pound consistently traded at around the current level was back in 2011, you cannot seriously believe it was over-valued for 5 years

................ can you?

(note there was a brief drop down to the current level in Aug 2013 that lasted about a week)

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 07:37 AM

Raggytash:
I was responding to your request to show that anyone other than Iains believed the pound was previously over valued.

The link I gave showed the opinions of the IMF & the Governor of the Bank of England.
That link was dated 17/10/16, since which time the pound has recovered a little of its value (at 17/10/16 1.106), and constantly traded above that level, apart from a short period in August 2017.

I accept that the value fell after the Brexit vote, but that was because it was overvalued anyway. The Brexit vote just provided sufficient instability to make it an ideal opportunity to re-adjust.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 07:02 AM

Nigel, what you omit to mention was that for much of 2015 the pound was trading at level above 1.35 Euro to the pound, rising as high as 1.44 Euro to the pound at one stage.

It seems that you cannot except that immediately after the Brexit vote the value of the pound plummeted. It has not, as yet, recovered and although the recent modest rise is observable, there is no guarantee it will stay that way.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 06:56 AM

From: SPB-Cooperator - PM
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 06:28 AM

I am still waiting for the government to announce how the government will guarantee 100% of the rights under EU membership forever. Or are they content to let 27% of the population DICTATE to the other 63%.

The rights include:

(1) Adopt without question all future EU legislation and regulation without question where it is socially beneficial.
(2) Apply structural and cohesion resources according to EU criteria
(3) Guarantee zero additional costs as a result from not being part of the custom union/single market at no cost to the taxpayer.
(4) Not to amend any law or regulation until the change has been ratified by a referendum on each individual change at zero cost to the taxpayer.
(5) To pay back the equivalent of the exiting costs including the wages of the leeches in the civil service who are involved in the process to local authorities to fund services to reverse austerity cuts.
(6) Ditto for the cost of any leeches that are employed to increase border control staffing.

for now, I don't have time to add the other hundred or so provisos.

That could be a very long wait.
No-one that I know of is promising those things. Also we have the basis that one parliament cannot bind a future parliament, so any promises made now could be overturned in future.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 06:53 AM

"But Raggytash, he's a member of the Party of the Little England Bravefaces. He's officially a Pleb!"
Recognise your posting below Shaw?
More of your constant wittering of "Do as I say,not as I do!"

"Try sticking to the issues. You?re making a fool of yourself. Please take this as a polite early warning that your recent posting behaviour is being archived. Any more of it and I?ll complain,"

Anyway the path to European unity and happiness keeps finding potholes:


https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/01/the-fight-for-europe-is-now-between-east-and-west/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_c

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 06:42 AM

So, the pound is "creeping up" whereas the euro is "plummeting!" Talk about having it both ways!

I bought a hundred quid's worth of euros yesterday afternoon to put on my Caxton card. Had I done it this morning, i.e., right now, I'd have got nearly half a cent less for each pound. If things go the same way today, that'll be enough gained in 24 hours to pay for un caffe next time I'm in Italy!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 06:29 AM

You cherrypicked that article, Keith. Read it again then tell us why you chose not to quote the very last section of it. Why oh why do you do this kind of thing, Keith?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: SPB-Cooperator
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 06:28 AM

I am still waiting for the government to announce how the government will guarantee 100% of the rights under EU membership forever. Or are they content to let 27% of the population DICTATE to the other 63%.

The rights include:

(1) Adopt without question all future EU legislation and regulation without question where it is socially beneficial.
(2) Apply structural and cohesion resources according to EU criteria
(3) Guarantee zero additional costs as a result from not being part of the custom union/single market at no cost to the taxpayer.
(4) Not to amend any law or regulation until the change has been ratified by a referendum on each individual change at zero cost to the taxpayer.
(5) To pay back the equivalent of the exiting costs including the wages of the leeches in the civil service who are involved in the process to local authorities to fund services to reverse austerity cuts.
(6) Ditto for the cost of any leeches that are employed to increase border control staffing.

for now, I don't have time to add the other hundred or so provisos.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 06:18 AM

Gosh, Nigel, you're so quick.

As for Camoron, he's visited the greatest disaster on this country since WW2. He needs to shut up and go away.

"It's a mistake, not a disaster..." In the immortal words of Mandy Rice-Davies, he would say that, wouldn't he?

And I'll save you a piece of pre-snipe research: I know that isn't what she really said.

Ok, Nigel?

Oh, and when I said Camoron, I meant Cameron. Just so's not to leave you confused. Now excuse me as I haven't read the Grauniad yet.

Er...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 06:18 AM

Steve,
Pound gone down half a cent in a few hours this affy, Keith. *Sigh,* eh?

It fluctuates constantly of course, but you said it was "as flat as a witch's tit."
In fact it is creeping up, this week anyway.
1 hour ago,
"Ahead Of First ECB Rate Meeting Of 2018
Modified: Jan 25, 2018
Written by Colin Lawrence
The Euro has plummeted against the dominant Pound today, ahead of a key ECB monetary policy meeting."
https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/20323/eurgbp-exchange-rate-news-and-five-day-currency-predictions-forecast.html

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 25 Jan 18 - 06:11 AM

From: Raggytash
Date: 24 Jan 18 - 11:26 AM
The only voice I have heard suggesting the pound was over valued prior to Brexit has been yours Iains.
For some considerable time before the Brexit vote the pound was trading in excess of 1.30 Euro, it had reached a high eighteen months before that in excess of 1.40 Euro.
Currencies do not trade overvalued for prolonged periods. Can you find a source I can trust which maintains the pound was overvalued because frankly I don't trust your opinion.

Perhaps you would consider the IMF and Governor of the bank of England as credible sources?

From Here, dated 17 Oct 2016
In February, the International Monetary Fund said the sterling was overvalued by somewhere between 5% and 15% in 2015. Just before the referendum, the IMF put the over-valuation slightly higher, saying that sterling was overvalued by between 5% and 20% in 2015. Other experts, like the former governor of the Bank of England and the IMF, have agreed that sterling was overvalued.
On 14 October, the effective exchange rate was 18% below the average for 2015. That's the value of sterling compared to a range of other currencies used by the UK's most important trading partners. If nothing had changed since the IMF's recommendations were made, it could mean sterling was now undervalued.