BS: Post Brexit life in the UK

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 07:47 AM

0.7669 divided by 100 multiplied by 116 equals 0.8896.

So the actually rate is slightly higher at 16.7% give or take a point.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 07:52 AM

From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 07:21 AM
Nigel, you are in denial. Whether the pound was overvalued by five, or fifteen, percent is moot. The obstinate fact is that the pound has plummeted by 14% in the last year and and a bit. The referendum took place a year and a bit ago. The two are inextricably connected. The devaluation has been at the same percentage loss as under Wilson. Sudden swings are very bad for the economy. Imports are dearer and inflation goes up. Pay rises won't follow suit. All this has happened even before the nuts and bolts of brexit have started to grind. We ain't seen nothing yet.

I am not in denial. I was pointing out that it was already known that the pound was overvalued, and due for an adjustment. The advent of Brexit was an ideal opportunity for this to happen. Even without Brexit it would have had to happen at some point.
Your comment about the increased cost (in pounds) of inports is quite valid, but you ignore (presumably as it doesn't suit your case) that the same effect makes our exports more desirable elsewhere as the will have had a matching reduction in cost (in the currency of the purchaser) thus helping our exports.

I still see Brexit as being a forward move.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 08:00 AM

While I agree the lower value of the pound may help us sell more, do not forget we are a net importer and have been for quite a long time.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 08:02 AM

If you study the exchange rates you will find the pound started to decline in Nov 2015 from a high of 1.41 to around 1.26 by the time the referendum occurred. Market sentiment was that brexit would be a resounding nay(or neigh)yet the decline was ongoing. It was a market correction, as has been alluded to. To what extent brexit influenced the decline is impossible to determine.
Scroll down for pound euro and move the cursor on the graph for date and value.

https://www.exfinuk.com/historical-forex-gbp

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 08:09 AM

None so blind as those that will not see................

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 08:10 AM

Actually Iains your graphs show much the same decline as Nigels.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 08:13 AM

Yes: 0.7669 divided by 100 multiplied by 116 equals 0.8896.
And .8896 is less than .8979
So .8979 is 17% greater than .7669 That does not mean the value of the pound has fallen by 17%. Your basic premise is wrong.

When calculating how much something has fallen (or risen) your base value (100%) is the point at which you started.
So with an opening rate of 1.3030, and a closing rate of 1.1137 the reduction of the rate is (roughly) 14.5%
If you have problems seeing this. Take an item costing £10. If the price goes up to £15 then that is a 50% increase (50% of the original £10)
But if you start with an item at £15 and reduce the price to £10 then that is not a 50% reduction, because you base the percentage on the original price (£5 reduction based on £15 start price is a 33.33% reduction).

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 08:58 AM

Oooh !! 14.5% not the 15.% I initially quoted

Only 14.5% we're saved ............... Yippee!!!!

It is still 14.5% Nigel, an on cost to every man jack of us at some point.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 09:37 AM

Yep, a lower pound would help us sell more. Now lessee, what is it we'd like to sell? Er...

I see it's denial day today.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 09:57 AM

From: Raggytash - PM
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 08:58 AM
Oooh !! 14.5% not the 15.% I initially quoted (and attempted to ‘prove’ using dodgy maths)
Only 14.5% we're saved ............... Yippee!!!!

It is still 14.5% Nigel, an on cost to every man jack of us at some point.
Possibly (assuming that by an ‘on cost’ you mean that the cost is passed on to us). But I’m sure I haven’t seen a 15% rise (or anywhere near) in the cost of my weekly shopping bill since we started leaving the EU.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 10:17 AM

In the meantime, the Tory party fiddles while brexit burns us down. Interesting read in today's Guardian, "A new cabinet won't save May, Brexit has doomed her" by Steve Richards. It seems that Europe dooms Tory leader after Tory leader and she's going to be no exception. No time for schadenfreude, though. Maybe for shaftenfreude, which, roughly translated, means taking pleasure in the inevitable immolation of the Tories whilst simultaneously realising that we're all completely stuffed.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 10:21 AM

I don't think anyone claims the cost of your weekly shop will mirror the devaluation: imports are only part of the price. But we will still end up paying the whole lot in more subtle ways, like the increased cost of government borrowing, deferred pay increases and a myriad of other ways.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Stu
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 10:30 AM

The tories are in a right state. The party is directionless under weak leadership and the sniping of right-wing backbenchers. Meanwhile Liar-in-Chief Boris is proving a real hazard; May can't sack him because he'd be a real loose cannon on the back benches and yet as foreign secretary he's a laughing stock. It it wasn't for the distraction of Trump's Flying Circus across the puddle the world would be laughing at us more than they already are.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 10:44 AM

You haven't seen a 15% rise in your shopping bill because nowhere near all your shopping is stuff we've bought in from outside, and because costs are not necessarily passed on fully to consumers straight away as suppliers shave their profit margins in order to stay competitive. And what DMcG said. Fluctuations in oil prices, which have nothing to do with exchange rates, can either enhance or offset inflation. But the CPI 12-month rate rose from 0.3 to 2.7 in the year after the referendum. That ties in closely with the decline of the pound. No denying it, Nigel. The referendum result helped to crash the pound and put up inflation. The next thing will be a drop in living standards as pay fails to keep up with inflation, which is inevitable. I wonder when the next Tory grandee-to-be (which is what happens to most failed Tories, and there’s a queue forming fast) will be telling us that we’re all in it together...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: akenaton
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 12:03 PM

We certainly are "all in it together", whether you like it or not.
If you lot don't stop your whining about losing some of your privileges, "rights" and unearned wealth, we really will be "in it".

We are being held to ransom for something which we don't need and which we are never going to get .....favourable terms from the EU.
We have upset their corrupt little club and they ain't going to help us in any way. In fact they are willing to cut off their noses to spite their faces on this one.

I'm not surprised that a majority of politicians support remaining in the EU, that is their retirement fund, but you people are supposed to be "of the left", always blethering on about change and looking after the poor, regeneration.   There hasn't been much sign of that under the iron fist of Brussels.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 01:02 PM

"I'm not surprised that a majority of politicians support remaining in the EU, that is their retirement fund"

I wasn't aware that Brussels financed the retirement packages of the UK Government, true some of them may find work there after their time in the Commons, some but not all.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 01:30 PM

In fact they are willing to cut off their noses to spite their faces on this one.

I very much doubt if that is the case, ake. They will do what *they* see as in their best interests. But that does not necessarily coincide with what *Britain claims* is in the EU's best interests, and it certainly won't be limited to strictly financial matters.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 01:44 PM

My cherished EU passport expires four days after brexit. What a pisser. I’ll be stateless in my head. Maybe I’ll stump up the unconscionable fee and get meself an Irish one. I’m entitled, but the Emerald Isle wants my dough.

There aren’t enough hours in the day to address the arrant, disconnected nonsense in akenaton’s post.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: akenaton
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 02:20 PM

"
There aren’t enough hours in the day to address the arrant, disconnected nonsense in akenaton’s post."

:0).....Best compliment I've had for weeks, if that is Steve's considered opinion, I must have hit the mark, dead centre and bloody hard.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 03:51 PM

The only marks we associate you with are skidmarks, mate.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 05:23 PM

And now the OBR, set up by the Tories, has significantly downgraded its predictions for productivity over the next five years, blaming brexit and low interest rates. Oh ye of brave face, where art thou now?

And don't mention BAE...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Stu
Date: 11 Oct 17 - 03:16 AM

"There hasn't been much sign of that under the iron fist of Brussels."

You might want to educate yourself on that matter. Look up what the EU has done for some of the most deprived communities in the UK.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 11 Oct 17 - 03:23 AM

From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 01:44 PM
My cherished EU passport expires four days after brexit. What a pisser. I’ll be stateless in my head. Maybe I’ll stump up the unconscionable fee and get meself an Irish one. I’m entitled, but the Emerald Isle wants my dough.

Or you could request, and pay for, a replacement now (or any time before Brexit) and get a new UK/EC passport which will last you for several more years.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 11 Oct 17 - 03:36 AM

In fact, there is no need to lose any of the time remaining on your passport. Just renew it 6 months before expiry:
You can renew your passport at any time. When you renew your passport, time left on your existing passport is added to your new one, up to a maximum of 9 months.
From Here

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: peteglasgow
Date: 11 Oct 17 - 04:15 AM

ake - i think you need to have a serious think about the 'iron fist of brussels' it is really an ignorant insult to those in our continent who suffered under nazi or soviet iron fists for years. our daughter lives and works in estonia where in their 800 year history they have only been an independent nation for less than 50. fancy going there and telling this new and hopeful EU nation that they are living under the iron fist of brussels? calm down and have a think about how lucky and free you are. in what single way does being in an EU nation have a negative effect on your daily life? you are completely free to say whatever nonsense you like about all levels of government - not really that much of an iron fist is it, comrade?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 11 Oct 17 - 02:08 PM

I'm not surprised that a majority of politicians support remaining in the EU,

The Eu is an employment scheme for politicians, providing lucrative pay and expenses and a lovely lifestyle for hosts of them.
When that comes to a stop they will all have to fight like cats for the remaining jobs. Of course they all vote against.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: peteglasgow
Date: 11 Oct 17 - 02:21 PM

yes, they do nothing at all of any worth whatsoever. trying to keep peace between often warring factions? encouraging free movement and friendship between people? protecting our environment and our rights at work> helping poorer regions? even twinning and the erasmus project? total greedy bastards every one of them. except farage of course

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 11 Oct 17 - 02:45 PM

"The Eu is an employment scheme for politicians, providing lucrative pay and expenses and a lovely lifestyle for hosts of them."

Christian Churches are employment schemes for clerics, providing easy sexual access to underage children and near-immunity from punishment. Hollywood is an employment scheme for directors, providing them with unlimited sexual access to gorgeous young women who will do anything to get the parts. In other words, there's nothing like a good old bit of brainless prejudice, is there, Keith? As a matter of fact, politicians have a job to do and one that needs doing, and, as with most other professions, the majority do a fair and honest job. Give it a rest, Keith. And well said, Pete.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: akenaton
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 03:10 AM

"politicians have a job to do and one that needs doing, and, as with most other professions, the majority do a fair and honest job."

Can't believe anyone had the gall to write that.
"The majority"......all politicians are public servants, all should be fair and honest."
How soon we forget the expenses debacle, when our "liberal" friends led the chorus of vilification.....and we never got to the truth of half of it. The extortionate fees commanded by politicians for private speaking engagements
Blair's role in the Iraq war, supported by almost every politician in the UK, against the will of the people as shown in huge demonstrations up and down the country.

There are only a handful of politicians who are not corrupt, they are agents of a system which promotes corruption.

Don't even look at established American politics, if you do, don't consider repeating your ridiculous assertion.

The EU is the most corrupt and undemocratic organisation in the West, no wonder they seek to retain it.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: peteglasgow
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 03:59 AM

sadly that will be the last we hear from ake for a time. the totalitarian powers employed by the EU will no doubt be sending their agents to sweep him up in their iron fist and despatch him to some bureaucratic dungeon where he will be bound in red tape until freed by a liam fox run hit squad in march 2019.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 04:19 AM

Steve,
Christian Churches are employment schemes for clerics,

I agree, but I believe it to be a great force for good in the world.

If we leave the EU, the group who would suffer most is the political class for whom it provides such manifold and lucrative employment opportunities.
That is why we should treat that group's views with particular suspicion.

Similarly, if it was seriously proposed to abolish the Christian Church, I would give the least credence to the views of those who it would put out of jobs, i.e. clerics.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Stu
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 04:25 AM

Good morning. Today's news: looks like the tories are having second thoughts as a theme of "we were better in the EU" is emerging from one faction of the warring cabinet of millionaires, with the Maybot refusing to answer a question on whether she would vote to stay in or now were the referendum to be held now. Which means she would vote in.


"How soon we forget the expenses debacle"

Of course Ake, your vile Kipper mates including your lord and master in neo-nazi nastiness Farage have been coining it in from the EU, with the toff city wideboy himself boasting he used £2,000,000 of taxpayer's money to promote UKIP, with no doubt a fair wodge of that being used to pay for his own 'expenses'. In fact, your lot are known for being the greedy little maggots of the EU parliament. They're laughing at you.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: akenaton
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 04:25 AM

"You might want to educate yourself on that matter. Look up what the EU has done for some of the most deprived communities in the UK."


Yes, like massively widening the "wealth gap" in every country under their control.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 04:26 AM

If we leave the EU, the group who would suffer most is the political class

Most living, mainstream economists who have had books published in major bookshops disagree.

Most economists still pessimistic about effects of Brexit

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 04:32 AM

Dave, we would have to subscribe to the notoriously Europhile FT to read your link.
"Most economists" have already been proved wrong in their predictions about the referendum result.

In what way does the one line we can read, which you quoted, challenge anything in my post?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 04:37 AM

Stu,
with the toff city wideboy himself boasting he used £2,000,000 of taxpayer's money to promote UKIP,

Yes, but all EU MPs claim the same.
What do the others spend their millions on?
Not on working towards ending the abuse!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: akenaton
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 04:42 AM

Most economists failed to see the financial crash of 2008 thundering towards them.

Of course they didn't fail to see it, they just hoped it would come to a juddering halt before it hit us. But they also knew that the financial system could not be allowed to implode no matter how much misery this would inflict upon the ordinary folk.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 04:50 AM

...and the Guardian

...and the Economist

...and Bloomberg

...and The Independent

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 04:55 AM

From: Dave the Gnome - PM
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 04:26 AM
. . .Most living, mainstream economists who have had books published in major bookshops disagree.
Most economists still pessimistic about effects of Brexit
DtG

Many 'mainstream economists' were predicting major catastrophe to immediately follow a vote to leave. It didn't happen.
"Living mainstream economists" Okay, I think we can accept that dead economists are unlikely to be having books published about Brexit.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 04:58 AM

You had to have been there, Nigel ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 05:08 AM

BTW

Many 'mainstream economists' were predicting major catastrophe to immediately follow a vote to leave. It didn't happen.

Hate crimes rise by up to 100 per cent across England and Wales

Maybe not the catastrophe that anyone had in mind but a catastrophe all the same.

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Stu
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 05:09 AM

"Yes, but all EU MPs claim the same."

Could you be arsed to look the figures up, you'd know that's not the case. Don't try your fake news here Trump's boy!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 05:23 AM

From: Dave the Gnome - PM
Hate crimes rise by up to 100 per cent across England and Wales
It helps to read articles before quoting headlines. Some newspapers fail to match their headlines to the facts.
Yes, the article does give one county where there was a 100% rise. But that was the maximum. I fail to see how their headline also encapsulates the fact that some areas actually saw a fall within that same period.
Hate crimes did not 'rise' everywhere.

Cheers
Nigel

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 05:43 AM

Hate crimes did not 'rise' everywhere.

Maybe not but any rise (no need for quotes) is a bad thing. If you have an issue with the headline in the Independent take it up with them. Maybe you would be happier with this BBC report. It still reports a massive increase and is still, in my opinion, a catastrophe.

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Stu
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 05:44 AM

Any rise in hate crime anywhere is a defeat for common decency.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 05:58 AM

Pound slumped, inflation rising, lowest growth in G7 and of most major EU countries, OBR forecast for productivity downgraded for the next five years, the party supposedly running the country at war with itself, Tory backwoodsmen not only briefing against May but also against Hammond, EU refusing to negotiate on a trade deal because we won’t stump up what we owe (once we leave and find ourselves in catastrophe land that sixty billion will look like a drop in the ocean), time ebbing away, brave face now being put on the disastrous prospect of no deal... Oh yes, things are really looking up. Still, never mind. Within a year or two we’ll have revived the Empire, the sun will never set on the red bits of the map and all these desperate foreign Johnnies will be queuing up to do amazing trade deals with us.

Like hell they will. The only way out of this morass is to abandon Article 50 and stay where we are. It can be done and, increasingly probably, it will. And we won’t even need a referendum.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 06:02 AM

If you have an issue with the headline in the Independent take it up with them
My problem wasn't with The Independent. It was with you quoting it as a supportive fact to your arguments without realising that it wasn't in line with the article it covered.

I haven't read the Independent since they cancelled their paper edition. Even then it was only on Saturday, for the 16*16 Sudoku.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 06:18 AM

It was with you quoting it as a supportive fact to your arguments without realising that it wasn't in line with the article it covered.

But I did no such thing. I just used the wording of the headline to provide a link to the article which I had read in full. The article is there for anyone to read and you did so. As far as I can tell your argument is simply with the headline hence my suggesting you take it up with them. Is the BBC article more to your liking? Do you think that because they report an increase in hate crime of a measly 41% overall on the previous year that it is OK?

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 07:30 AM

No, an increase in hate crime of 41% is not acceptable.
Hate crime is unacceptable. Decrying the rate of the rise seems pointless, unless you are highlighting it as a factor brought on by Brexit. But then there was an 18% rise between 2013/24 & 2014/15 (pre brexit) < ahref=http://www.report-it.org.uk/hate_crimes_reported_to_police_up_18_in_england>Here

So the rise is not a purely Brexit phenomenon.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 07:57 AM

Try again with the correct link:
No, an increase in hate crime of 41% is not acceptable.
Hate crime is unacceptable. Decrying the rate of the rise seems pointless, unless you are highlighting it as a factor brought on by Brexit. But then there was an 18% rise between 2013/24 & 2014/15 (pre brexit) Here

So the rise is not a purely Brexit phenomenon.