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BS: Post Brexit life in the UK

Nigel Parsons 22 Jan 18 - 07:19 AM
Raggytash 22 Jan 18 - 08:03 AM
Raggytash 22 Jan 18 - 08:43 AM
Keith A of Hertford 22 Jan 18 - 09:25 AM
Greg F. 22 Jan 18 - 10:10 AM
Steve Shaw 22 Jan 18 - 10:17 AM
Raggytash 22 Jan 18 - 10:37 AM
Keith A of Hertford 22 Jan 18 - 11:40 AM
DMcG 22 Jan 18 - 12:09 PM
DMcG 22 Jan 18 - 12:22 PM
Iains 22 Jan 18 - 12:42 PM
DMcG 22 Jan 18 - 01:26 PM
Raggytash 22 Jan 18 - 01:31 PM
Dave the Gnome 22 Jan 18 - 03:05 PM
Iains 22 Jan 18 - 03:36 PM
DMcG 22 Jan 18 - 04:01 PM
Raggytash 22 Jan 18 - 04:35 PM
Nigel Parsons 22 Jan 18 - 04:47 PM
DMcG 22 Jan 18 - 05:06 PM
Steve Shaw 22 Jan 18 - 05:46 PM
Steve Shaw 22 Jan 18 - 05:51 PM
bobad 22 Jan 18 - 06:42 PM
Nigel Parsons 22 Jan 18 - 07:38 PM
Steve Shaw 22 Jan 18 - 07:47 PM
Steve Shaw 22 Jan 18 - 08:13 PM
DMcG 23 Jan 18 - 01:54 AM
DMcG 23 Jan 18 - 02:01 AM
Nigel Parsons 23 Jan 18 - 03:40 AM
DMcG 23 Jan 18 - 07:41 AM
Nigel Parsons 23 Jan 18 - 07:58 AM
Keith A of Hertford 23 Jan 18 - 08:24 AM
Steve Shaw 23 Jan 18 - 09:05 AM
Steve Shaw 23 Jan 18 - 09:11 AM
Raggytash 23 Jan 18 - 09:16 AM
Jim Carroll 23 Jan 18 - 09:19 AM
Keith A of Hertford 23 Jan 18 - 09:31 AM
Steve Shaw 23 Jan 18 - 10:02 AM
Steve Shaw 23 Jan 18 - 10:05 AM
Jim Carroll 23 Jan 18 - 10:06 AM
Dave the Gnome 23 Jan 18 - 10:29 AM
Keith A of Hertford 23 Jan 18 - 12:14 PM
Dave the Gnome 23 Jan 18 - 12:49 PM
Steve Shaw 23 Jan 18 - 12:57 PM
Raggytash 23 Jan 18 - 01:20 PM
Greg F. 23 Jan 18 - 01:27 PM
Steve Shaw 23 Jan 18 - 01:31 PM
Steve Shaw 23 Jan 18 - 01:34 PM
Nigel Parsons 23 Jan 18 - 07:54 PM
Steve Shaw 23 Jan 18 - 08:09 PM
Steve Shaw 23 Jan 18 - 08:11 PM

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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 07:19 AM

Raggytash:
Two things here, one an assumption that the rest of the world will help us and two the recovery period is 13 (THIRTEEN) years.
The 13 years is not surprising, this is based on forecasts of how things will stand in 2030.

"Because of course, in principle, I share the views of many that Brexit is a really weird thing for the UK to impose on itself from an economic perspective." Even O'Neill thinks Brexit is damaging economically
Again, not surprising. your second paragraph gives him as "a Remain supporter".


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 08:03 AM

Quite so Nigel.

However it would seem that by very selective cherry-picking a rosy picture was put forward. When read as a whole the picture is not actually all that good.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 08:43 AM

Brexiteers are really scraping the bottom of the barrel this weekend. The fuss is about the bell at the Elizabeth Tower, Westminster possibly not being chimed when we leave the EU.

This is as pathetic as it comes, all the little englanders in their union flag underpants and waistcoats up in arms.


Big Ben Bongs


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 09:25 AM

"That's the argument of Lord Jim O'Neill, the former Conservative Treasury minister and Remain supporter" So not at all biased then.

Of course he is biased. Even now he is a Remainer.
When he was in the Treasury, it told us that voting Leave would have an "immediate and profound" effect on the economy, cause a huge rise in unemployment and necessitate an emergency budget to raise money.

How many voters were influenced by such dire predictions from the Treasury and august bodies like the IMF. More than by the disputed bus prediction I am sure.
I was certainly forced to think twice and reconsider.

Had they won they would never have admitted it was all bollocks, and probably deliberate lies.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Greg F.
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 10:10 AM

Anent lowest price wins.

“There is hardly anything in the world that someone cannot make a little worse and sell a little cheaper, and the people who consider price alone are that person's lawful prey."

                        - John Ruskin

"


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 10:17 AM

What a hypocritical post, Keith.

Nigel, go and nitpick elsewhere. You managed to point out absolutely no significant distinction between the original and my rewording. When Keith and Iains are saying such stupid things all the time, all you can do is nitpick ME on the finer points. Why not have a good old bash at their real absurdities? You're solidly in their camp, that's why. Now you really are not coming out of this well. Tsk.

Things to do. Can't jump hoops. Only time to take the piss. See y'all later...


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 10:37 AM

Latest news:

"UBS, the Swiss investment bank, will not wait for details of a possible transition deal before triggering its Brexit contingency plans “in early 2018”, risking the loss of up to 1,000 UK jobs, the Press Association reports. It detailed the plans in its fourth quarter earnings report, in line with expectations that a raft of international firms will be forced to start moving jobs and EU client operations by the end of March. It said:

The UK is still expected to leave the EU in March 2019, subject to a possible transition period. We intend to begin implementation of contingency measures in early 2018."

So Finance companies are getting out sooner than predicted. The thin end of the wedge. Thanks to those that voted leave.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 11:40 AM

When Keith and Iains are saying such stupid things all the time

Please identify one such stupid thing Steve, if it is true.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 12:09 PM

I'm sure everyone know about this, but there is the problem of hysteresis when it comes to businesses moving elsewhere. There is a cost of moving from A to B, but if you do so, and subsequently then consider moving back, the costs are similar: you don't get it back. So, informally, if we lost a significant part of the finance industries as Brexit approached, and then decided to back out and to stay in the EU, those who had moved would, in the main, stay where they are; we would have to offer a much bigger incentive to persuade them to come back to the UK once that had achieved the transitions to, say, Paris or Frankfurt.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 12:22 PM

Well, well, well, Alan Sked. That's a blast from the past.

I went to hear him speak back in 1991 or thereabouts; it may even have been before he formally founded the party.

I was unimpressed.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 12:42 PM

Dave and Raggytash:
An interesting article that encapsulates most sides of my and your arguments. Enjoy!


http://evonomics.com/role-of-morality-in-a-capitalist-economy/

It may be highly desirable for corporations or capitalists to have a conscience but there are no statistics I can find to further the argument. Not for profit Organisations are in a class of their own.
All things may theoretically be possible within the remit of making a profit and keeping shareholders happy, including pandering to a moral conscience, but for most profit and destroying competition tend to be major drivers.
Generally charitable donations are tax deductible so no gain, no pain.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 01:26 PM

Interesting article. There are twwo main points I would raise.

Firarly, combining evolution with social sciences has a very long and largely unpleasant history. This is not to say you shouldn't do it, but every alarm should be set on "highest sensitivity". It is easily ised to justify all sorts of things that are repugnant.

The second thing is that "Greed 1" is essentially a hill climbing algorithm and so inherently produces sub-optimal solutions. I would like to hear his views on that.

But let's stick to Brexit!


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 01:31 PM

I'm having a pint or three at the moment Iains. I read this tonight .........or more probably tomorrow.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 03:05 PM

For each link that supports your case someone will find one that does the opposite. Study the evidence, then draw your conclusion. Don't draw the conclusion then find evidence to support it.

DtG


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 03:36 PM

I rather thought the article gave some substance to both sides of the argument.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 04:01 PM

CBI wants UK to stay in customs union


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 04:35 PM

Yet another wonderful result of the uncertainty surrounding Brexit:

JLR Cuts production

Anyone got any good news yet????


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 04:47 PM

Yes, look at the link at the bottom of that page:Jaguar Land Rover reports record annual sales
This relates to sales in 2017, so after the Brexit vote.

The company said Jaguar sold 178,601 cars, up 20% on the year before, while Land Rover sales rose 2% to 442,508.

JLR said sales had more than tripled since 2009.

It said this was the seventh successive year of growth, which was driven by the introduction of new models and increased uptake of its clean diesel and petrol engines.


The company said that growing sales in China and the US helped to offset what it described as "difficult market conditions" in the European and UK markets.

China was the company's most important region in 2017 with annual sales of 146,399, up 23% year-on-year.

It described its performance in the UK as "solid", with 117,748 Jaguars and Land Rovers sold.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 05:06 PM

But, Nigel, in the (slightly) more recent JLR announcement is this:

SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said at the time: "Brexit uncertainty, coupled with confusion over diesel taxation and air quality plans, continues to impact domestic demand for new cars and, with it, production output."


So Brexit explicitly blamed. As to which announcement is a better representation of the truth, you pays yer money and takes yer choice.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 05:46 PM

Brave faceism is becoming quite an epidemic.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 05:51 PM

That's quite a big piece on the BBC news website that DMcG is quoting from. Perhaps Nigel will see it tomorrow post-duvet time. Three wheels on my wagon...


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: bobad
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 06:42 PM

So long EU.........hello CANZUK?

"CANZUK International (CI) is the leading group advocating closer ties between Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, known amongst diplomats at the United Nations as the ?CANZUK Group?."

http://www.canzukinternational.com/our-mission


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 07:38 PM

That's quite a big piece on the BBC news website that DMcG is quoting from. Perhaps Nigel will see it tomorrow post-duvet time. Three wheels on my wagon...
I saw it, I read it. I quoted from a further link at the bottom of that same page.

Raggytash posted the original link.

DMcG's quote: SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said at the time: "Brexit uncertainty, coupled with confusion over diesel taxation and air quality plans, continues to impact domestic demand for new cars and, with it, production output." which he commented on as "Brexit explicitly blamed".
While the quote mentions Brexit, it also links in other factors (diesel taxation and air quality plans).
The article doesn't give figures for the reduction in output specific for JLR, but it does give a figure of a 5.7% reduction in UK (and Europe?) in 2017.
As the other article from the same source (which I linked to) gives JLR hitting a record high in 2017, it appears that sales to the rest of the world are more than making up for reduced sales to UK & EU.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 07:47 PM

Brave Faceman strikes again!


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 22 Jan 18 - 08:13 PM

Several things about Canzuk. First, it's miles away from getting off the ground and the UK will be long gone from the EU before anything significant can be set up, and, by then, brexit will have turned us into a very unattractive basket case with whom you will want to do only limited business. Second, manufactured goods is a small part of our economy. We haven't got much that you'd really want. We'd be a net importer, and, with the best will in the world when you look at the countries included, we'd still have to buy the bulk of what would then be our tariff-stricken goods that we need from outside the block. The financial services sector is four-fifths of our economy, and a good deal of it is currently tied up with the EU with whom we currently enjoy a cracking good deal. Let's hear your suggestions as to how that can be untangled then reconnected to a setup that is supposed to be a competitor of the EU. Third, it's a bloody long way from the UK to Canuckistan to Oz to NZ... Fourth, the EU currently adds up to half a billion people and, if I got my arse in gear, I could be nattering to any one of 'em face to face in about twelve hours from now (it's late, no-can-fly late...). Canzuk can't get anywhere near that number. Size isn't everything, I suppose...

Sounds to me like an mini-EU with every country in it half a globe away from every other. Anyone for edicts from unelected bureaucrats in Wollongong?

And no-one mentions China and India. Let's have a referendum about it, I say.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 01:54 AM

You are fond of that ploy, Nigel. No one said Brexit was the ONLY factor. It was identified as ONE OF the factors. And, befire you come back with 'no one knows how big a factor' it is still a negative even it is only a few percent.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 02:01 AM

Personally, by the way, I would say the increased sales overseas is good news due (in part!) to the loss in value of the pound due to Brexit. You can't, though, as you insist the drop is nothing to do with Brexit.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 03:40 AM

You are fond of that ploy, Nigel. No one said Brexit was the ONLY factor.

True, your comment was: So Brexit explicitly blamed. As to which announcement is a better representation of the truth, you pays yer money and takes yer choice.
So no attempt to say there that Brexit was one of the reasons given, just "Brexit explicitly blamed".
It is possible to mislead by omission. I was just clarifying that Brexit was not the sole reason given.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 07:41 AM

I admit I could have been clearer.

Do you, though, accept Brexit was one of the factors leading to the decision to reduce production?


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 07:58 AM

Yes, I accept the quote as it was given:
"Brexit uncertainty, coupled with confusion over diesel taxation and air quality plans, continues to impact domestic demand for new cars and, with it, production output."


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 08:24 AM

Steve,
we'd still have to buy the bulk of what would then be our tariff-stricken goods that we need from outside the block.

Let me try again to explain this basic stuff to you Steve.
When we leave, we will not have to apply tariffs to food, clothing and footwear as the EU makes us do now.
The only tariff free stuff we can get now is from the EU which is the most expensive stuff in the world! That is why they impose their tariffs.

Get it now?
Anything else I can educate you on?
Now you know the facts will you change your views?

DMcG,
CBI wants UK to stay in customs union

They are slavishly pro. EU.
They campaigned for us to join the ERM, which was disastrous for our economy.
They campaigned for us to join the euro, which would have been worse.
Meanwhile for their members business is booming with orders at their highest for 30 years and exports at their best for 20 years.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 09:05 AM

And where's all this food suddenly coming from instead then, Keith? We will still have to buy most of it from the EU. WITH TARIFFS. Well there's always GM stuff and chlorine chickens... Footwear and clothing, all from China, India and Bangladesh already. Are you telling me that we will all pay a lot less for that stuff after we leave? In yer dreams, mate. And encouraging those markets even more means encouraging child labour, exploitation of women, dangerous working conditions and human rights violations. Maybe you only care on Sundays.

Advice to importers from transporteca.co.uk:

After the Brexit decision, the import relationship with non-EU countries will not change. The only difference will be if the EU makes trade agreements with non-EU countries, the UK will be left out. However, in regard to your transportation, you will still need to custom clear your goods, provide a commercial invoice and pay import duties.

So where exactly is this brave new world of yours, Keith? And what about the financial services sector?


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 09:11 AM

And as a matter of fact, Keith, my post related to a hypothetical trading situation once we'd joined the proposed Canzuk block, not when we were on our own after brexit, the latter, er, a slightly more likely scenario. Glad to educate you on the correct reading of posts.

But you're still wrong anyway.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 09:16 AM

Yet more mushroom management from our Government.

"George Parker in the Financial Times (paywall) says Theresa May has been accused of leaving the City of London “in the dark” after the government admitted a long-expected paper setting out its trade goals for financial services after Brexit may never be published.
Last autumn, senior City figures say they were promised a detailed position paper in a matter of weeks setting out Britain’s negotiating priorities for a sector that employs more than 1m people across the country.

But delivery of the paper was delayed repeatedly and now ministers are considering not publishing it at all, according to business executives and government officials involved in the discussions. The government remains unable to agree a detailed position on the sector, and some officials are still reluctant to show Brussels their negotiating hand, they added."


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 09:19 AM

"Anything else I can educate you on?
Now you know the facts will you change your views?"
"Idiots will never change while they insist on living up their own arses"
(old Liverpool saying)
Jim Carroll


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 09:31 AM

Steve,
We will still have to buy most of it from the EU. WITH TARIFFS.

No Steve. Let me try again to explain these basics to you.
We will not be applying tarriffs to food wherever it comes from, excepting only for products such as sheep meat where our own prducers need protecting.

Are you telling me that we will all pay a lot less for that stuff after we leave?

We will not have to impose tariffs so yes they will be cheaper.

Get it now?
Anything else I can educate you on?
Now you know the facts will you change your views?


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 10:02 AM

So you think my Asda George shirts and my Mountain Warehouse pants will go down in price after Brexit? When the pound's collapsing making our imports dearer? And before we've done deals with non-EU countries that will take years to do? And when retailers see a chance to boost their profits? And when this government is slashing public sector pay whilst inflation is soaring and bobbling people's spending power? What candy-coated, cloud cuckoo-infested planet are you on, Keith? Sounds like a land of vain hope and no glory to me.

The CBI is not slavishly anti-brexit. The CBI has accepted the referendum result and is daily making the case for an orderly brexit and lobbying for staying in the single market and customs union, and is advising its members on what contingency plans and adjustments they need to be making. It takes into account the views of thousands of businesses, large and small, who are a damn sight closer to the nitty-gritty realities of this than this pathetic government and ideological little-Englanders like you. Have a good look at their website instead of playing the willing role of Mail-fodder. And educate yourself instead of insulting an organisation which, unlike you, has its feet on the ground.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 10:05 AM

Sorry, you didn't say anti-brexit. you said slavishly pro-EU. Almost but not quite same difference.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 10:06 AM

NO TARRIFS WOULD BREAK WTO RULES

FUTURE UNCERTAN

THERE MAY BE TROUBLE AHEAD

So "Let's face the music and dance" - eh!!!

There are certain people in this world who should never - ever attempt to talk down to people
"When will they ever learn?"
Jim Carroll


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 10:29 AM

I rather thought the article gave some substance to both sides of the argument.

Yes, granted, it does not come down heavily on either side. To such an extent that I cannot yet glean what the point actually was! I shall try a re-read some time soon to see if it becomes clearer. It certainly displays the fact that economics is not clear cut and many of the arguments dispute the statement that morality has no place in business.

DtG


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 12:14 PM

Steve,
So you think my Asda George shirts and my Mountain Warehouse pants will go down in price after Brexit? When the pound's collapsing making our imports dearer?

The pound is no longer dropping and if your shirts and pants are made outside EU as they almost certainly are, they will be cheaper because they will lose their tariff.

And educate yourself instead of insulting an organisation which, unlike you, has its feet on the ground.

An organisation which was WRONG about both ERM and Euro and the immediate consequence of the leave vote.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 12:49 PM

So, when tariffs are dropped all savings are passed on to the consumer are they? Interesting that this is what I have been saying should happen in an ethical world but one of your fellow brexiteers is saying that what really happens is that the companies in question will just use the savings to maximise profits. So, sadly, no savings on Steve's shirts and pants at all. In fact, without the consumer protection afforded by the EU, this government is likely to allow poorer quality imports to make even more money. All speculation of course but more likely than pigs flying prices coming down.

DtG


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 12:57 PM

How does anyone on planet Earth actually KNOW that joining the euro would have been bad for this country? Would never have opted for it meself, but it didn't do Germany any harm. It's a great thing, is this received wisdom malarkey...


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 01:20 PM

Let me try and put things simply in a way that some may understand.

If a block of countries buys 1000 of one product it will get a better price than if it only buys 500 of that product. Economies of scale.

Thus if the EU buy 1000 of a product for £100 each they get a good deal.

However if one country drops out of the EU and the EU only buys 900 of that product the price will increase slightly, for example to £105 per item.

If the one country that has dropped out of the EU wants to buy only 100 of that product the cost to them will be higher because they are not buying as many. The cost to them may be £120 per item.

Very simple economics that anyone should be able to comprehend.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Greg F.
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 01:27 PM

How does anyone on planet Earth actually KNOW that joining the euro would have been bad for this country?

Born with a caul, like the Professor & several others here.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 01:31 PM

What will Brexit mean for British trade?

Outside the EU, the UK will need to strike new deals in order to have free trade with those countries or the remaining EU members.

What sort of trade agreement will we have with Europe?

That depends on what kind of deal the UK was trying to strike.

After decades of EU membership UK business regulations are already heavily harmonised with Europe, meaning that the UK could probably strike a very quick deal if (and it's a big 'if') it was prepared to go on applying those rules in exchange for access to the EU single market, much as Norway does today.

In practice, the UK would be more likely seek to negotiate a novel form of Free Trade Agreement, but as Pawel Swidlicki of Open Europe notes, the trade-off is between "speed and scope."

If the UK wants a broad deal, particularly one covering services, including financial services, it could take some time.

Past precedent for other deals suggests negotiations might take anywhere from four to 10 years. How long precisely might depend more on politics than economics.

German car makers and French winemakers might well be pushing for access to the UK, but given other tensions in the EU and the need for the deal to be agreed by a qualified majority vote, there would be plenty of scope for other nations to hold the process to ransom.

In the absence of a deal between the UK and the EU, the UK would then be required to follow World Trade Organisation rules on tariffs.


What will that mean?

The UK would pay tariffs on goods and services it exported into the EU, but since the UK would pay "most favoured nation" rates, that would prohibit either side imposing punitive duties and sparking a trade war.

These WTO tariffs range from 32 per cent on wine, to 4.1 per cent on liquefied natural gas, with items like cars (9.8 per cent) and wheat products (12.8 per cent) somewhere in between.

John Springford, an economist with the Centre for European Reform, the total cost of those tariffs would be large, ranging from a 2.2 per cent of GDP (40 billion pounds) to 9 per cent.

Damian Chalmers, professor of European Union law at the London School of Economics, says the bigger threat to the UK exports would not be from WTO tariffs, but other EU states imposing new regulations and other "non-tariff barriers" to keep UK services out.

What about UK striking trade deals with other big economies?

This is eminently possible, but is likely to take time. Having ceded responsibility for trade policy to the EU, the UK civil service may lack the capacity to strike major trade deals quickly.

It is also possible, as David Cameron argues, that other countries will want to see what terms the UK receives in Europe before committing to their own deal, potentially leading to further delays.

A larger question will be about the UK's bargaining power with countries whose domestic politics push them towards protectionism, not free trade. Professor Chalmers warns that striking trade deals with major economies such as the US, China and India would be "tough" for Britain.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 01:34 PM

Oops, forgot to attribute that. It's from the Daily Torygraph from last February.   The point of posting it was to disabuse Keith of his fantasy that this is going to be so easy-peasy. Au contraire: we're stuffed.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 07:54 PM

From: Raggytash - PM
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 01:20 PM
Let me try and put things simply in a way that some may understand.
If a block of countries buys 1000 of one product it will get a better price than if it only buys 500 of that product. Economies of scale.
Thus if the EU buy 1000 of a product for ?100 each they get a good deal.
However if one country drops out of the EU and the EU only buys 900 of that product the price will increase slightly, for example to ?105 per item.
If the one country that has dropped out of the EU wants to buy only 100 of that product the cost to them will be higher because they are not buying as many. The cost to them may be ?120 per item.
Very simple economics that anyone should be able to comprehend.


Yes, very simple.

What is missing is that if the trading bloc imposes on those imports an import tariff, then any breakaway member of that bloc can purchase the goods more cheaply (despite 'economies of scale') because they no longer need to impose a tariff on the imports.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 08:09 PM

As long as they've done a deal, Nigel, as long as they've done a deal. Doing deals takes years. It isnt the wild west out there, you know, where you stand on a street corner shouting your price and coming down all the time. How long do you think we've got to get all these deals in place, Nigel? Knowing as we do that our civil servants, both in numbers and in negotiating skills, are not up to the job?

I note that Johnson has tried to save face over the bus slogan issue by publicly broadcasting that he was going to ask a private cabinet meeting for a hundred million a week for the NHS. Not £350 million, one notes, a number that will never be achieved despite the promise on the bus. But he was shot down unanimously (except for Gove - heheh) by his colleagues for going large. Some were even calling for his sacking. And these are the people who are supposed to be running the country and leading us to brexit. Be very afraid.


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Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 23 Jan 18 - 08:11 PM

Apostrophe violence again. Tsk.


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