BS: Post Brexit life in the UK

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 07 Mar 18 - 08:44 AM

As I say, the EU guidelines say no trade talks until all the commitments made in December have been legally signed up to. So if the UK wants to talk trade and wants to avoid no deal and wants to avoid NI staying in the CU/SM it has to come up with something on (a) and (b). I suspect that need be no more than a commitment to keep working on them. It is a negotiating stance to say you need to talk trade first. It is not essential in itself.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 07 Mar 18 - 08:32 AM

DMcG, if we get a free trade deal there is nothing to sort out anyway.
We can not write up the (a) and (b) options from December in a legal form until we know what the trade deal will be.
We have done all we can on the border until then.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 07 Mar 18 - 08:26 AM

What else can the UK do? Well they could write up the (a) and (b) options from December in a legal form, for a start.

You will have heard today, I imagine, the the EU guidelines say they will not start talking trade until the UK has signed a written legal text to protect the Irish border.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 07 Mar 18 - 08:17 AM

The UK hasn't got beyond making speeches on that matter.

The speeches have made clear our determination not to change the border under any circumstances.
What else can UK do?
EU so far refuses to discuss what the trade position is going to be anyway!
They have not even got as far as making speeches.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 07 Mar 18 - 06:50 AM

The EU has got as far as drafting a legal text for agreement that any deal must preserve the border. That text deliberately leaves open that the UK is free to come up with mutually agreeable alternative mechanisms to achieve it.

The UK hasn't got beyond making speeches on that matter.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 07 Mar 18 - 06:37 AM

Steve,
We have threatened the border.

No we have not. Our government says unequivocally, under no circumstances will it make any changes to the border.
EU threatens that it will, not us.

DMcG
I see it as a message to BOTH sides that there is something of great importance there beyond the economic and BOTH sides need to be wary of how whatever they propose might alter that.

It is not "BOTH" sides proposing to alter that. Just EU.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 07 Mar 18 - 06:28 AM

Quite. And the Good Friday Agreement is definitely under threat by the Brexiteers with talk of it having outlived its usefulness.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 07 Mar 18 - 06:21 AM

The EU is simply sticking to the rules for the time being, Keith. Maybe I should remind you that the UK stirred up the border issue (which up to now hasn't actually been an issue at all) by calling a referendum and voting to leave the EU. We have threatened the border. The EU have not threatened anything beyond its long-standing rules apropos of the customs union and single market that we have happily been members of up to now. Trying to shift the blame on to them for the threat of instability in Ireland is just one of many of the thoroughly dishonest tactics of brexiteers. Including you.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 07 Mar 18 - 06:10 AM

Well, we will have to differ on that one. I see it as a message to BOTH sides that there is something of great importance there beyond the economic and BOTH sides need to be wary of how whatever they propose might alter that.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 07 Mar 18 - 04:27 AM

DMcG, the article is entirely political and dishonest.
The whole premise of the piece is that the border is under threat from the "Brexiteers."

That ignores the fact that the Brexiteers, in the form of the British government are committed, "under no circumstances" to change the Border.

The only people threatening to change it is the EU.
To make it honest you would have to change every reference to "Brexiteers" to "EU," but then the Guardian would not print it.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 06 Mar 18 - 03:09 PM

Leaked EU report seen by Guardian

But probably better to wait for the official document, probably tomorrow.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 06 Mar 18 - 10:35 AM

Leaving the caption and summary aside, two sentences are concerned with Brexit, by my count, (though you may interpret some sentences differently.) And one of those is a "be sensitive the border" which most of both sides claim they are.

Most of the politics that is there is referring to time before the referendum.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 06 Mar 18 - 10:14 AM

With quite a lot of politics actually.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 06 Mar 18 - 08:02 AM

An article on the Irish border with little politics, mainly being a plea to recognise the border is not just an economic one.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 Mar 18 - 05:53 AM

"Bloom says the market is likely to remain caught around current levels until such a time as some real news on Brexit is made forthcoming."

Bloody hell, Raggytash, in that case we'd better panic and buy our holiday money now!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 06 Mar 18 - 05:21 AM

A new study by Cambridge University Centre For Business Research,
HOW THE ECONOMICS PROFESSION GOT IT WRONG ON BREXIT
Ken Coutts, Graham Gudgin and Jordan Buchanan

"In light of these shortcomings it might have been expected that the profession would take extra care to make its assessment of the potential impact of Brexit as fair and accurate as possible. A further failure would add substantially to the questioning of the underlying soundness of economic theory and practice related to forecasting. We argue in this paper that this did not happen and that much of the economic assessment of the impact of Brexit has been flawed, leading to a conclusion that the profession does indeed need to reassess its methods."

"Our conclusion is that most estimates of the impact of Brexit in the UK, both short-term and long-term, have exaggerated the degree of potential damage to the UK economy. We stress at this point that this is not a politically-driven exercise. Most of the four-person team behind the research for this and our other papers voted ‘Remain’ in the 2016 referendum and would do so again if given the chance. Our purpose is rather to establish a sound basis for the ongoing debate on the likely potential economic impact of Brexit, and more generally to question the quality of economic analysis in dealing with major, macroeconomic policy issue like Brexit. "
http://www.cbr.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/centre-for-business-research/downloads/working-papers/wp493.pdf

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 06 Mar 18 - 04:47 AM

Exchange Rates 18 hours ago,

"Pound Euro Exchange Rate Advances As UK Services PMI Hits Four-Month High"

"Pound Sterling Live 3 days ago,
"the Pound-to-Euro exchange rate is in fact not in remarkable territory. In fact, it is slap-bang in the middle of its long-term range against the Euro; indeed the exchange rate appears to be stuck in a rut with the 1.13 level being a fulcrum in a multi-month range for the exchange rate."

" David Bloom, HSBC's head of foreign exchange research.
Bloom says the market is likely to remain caught around current levels until such a time as some real news on Brexit is made forthcoming. "The UK is renegotiating its position with the EU, let's look at Sterling against the Euro and if you look at that it's as dull as dishwater," says Bloom, "we're waiting for something to happen".
"It looked like Sterling was weakening, weakening, weakening, something happened, it strengthened and if you look at the charts since September last year it's done nothing," adds Bloom."

Express 1 hour
"Pound to euro exchange rate: Promising service sector gains back recent losses
Laura Parsons currency analyst at TorFX explained

Express 2hour,
"Pound V euro: GBP climbs after Italian election triggers shockwaves with anti-EU surge
Jeremy Cook, Chief Economist at WorldFirst shared his optimism on the readings, "

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 07:24 PM

St Ives is an hour and a half's drive from me, Dave. It'd almost be like going to the supermarket in Hull if you lived in Radcliffe...

Nice place though. Heaving in summer and you can't expect to park fer nowt!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 06:43 PM

I see it's soared down to less than 1.10. Bugger that.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 06:03 PM

Well you know what I mean. I got a bit distracted by Mary Beard there...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 05:57 PM

Nah. The pound has soared sownward, Raggytash. Get it right!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 05:33 PM

Because I keep a close eye on the pound V euro exchange rate I note that in the last few days the pound has "plummeted"

Well if going up by one half on one percent (less than half a cent) means the pound is soaring then dropping by almost DOUBLE that amount must mean the pound has plummeted doesn't it.

Any good news about Brexit yet .............

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 01:39 PM

whether they ever

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 01:06 PM

Well I think that asking people whether they think newspapers are right- or left-wing is a very unintelligent approach, and I think the results show it. I mean, 12% of people think that the Mail is left-leaning? Almost a quarter think that the Sun is left-leaning? I think I'd be questioning my survey methods at the very least. How do you judge? By the leading article? I wonder how many of the people questioned whether ever read it...

Far better to judge a paper by critically scrutinising the quality of the journalism in its news reporting. Is the headline factual and neutral, or is it over-large, sensational and tendentious (an egregious example of the latter would be "Gotya!" or "Enemies of the people")? Does the body of the report contain opinion, which could be implied by the sensational language used, mixed with news?

Then there's the column writers. Famously, the Guardian invites columnists from the whole spectrum of opinion. It could be that there are more frequent articles from left of centre, of course. I read the Mail from cover to cover approximately once a week. I seldom, if ever, read a piece written by what any of us would call a leftie, and many of the columnists (not all) write in an unashamedly populist, dare I say superficial, style. I challenge anyone reading this to produce a recent Mail column that could be described as promoting a consistently left-wing viewpoint.

Trying to conclude by looking at those aspects of a paper whether it's right-wing or left-wing is too simplistic. I find it a lot easier and more useful to decide, using whatever critical faculties the good Lord has endowed me with, whether a newspaper may be relied on to give me balanced reporting and opinions that may enlighten my own, whether I agree or not, without pushing for that dreaded confirmation bias.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 12:50 PM

There are none so blind as those who will not see.

Iains et al are incapable of absorbing anything that is not strictly from their own handbook.

As you rightly say all newspapers and reporters slant stories their own way. If you read the last article that Iains linked to you will find it does not entirely support the headline.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 12:25 PM

Certainly all papers have a bias, as does all media. We have to be alert and compensate for that. But taking your link, for example, if you look at the percentage of people who think the Guardian is 'very left', four of the nationals are 'very right' by a greater extent. Indeed, even the fifth - the Times - is very close to it. (14% rather than 16%). The next paper, the Independent, drops dramatically to 4%.

Conversely, if we look at the Daily Mail, more than twice as many - indeed only a little less than three times as many - think it is 'very right' than think the Guardian is 'very left'

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 12:09 PM

and yet more happy EU campers! another fine newspaper with an article to upset the remoaners.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/927284/italian-election-result-european-union-silence-M5S-Lega-Nord-Matteo-Salvini-Italexit

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 12:04 PM

All newspapers have a bias = all of them!

It gets very boring posting the link below - AGAIN
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/03/07/how-left-or-right-wing-are-uks-newspapers/

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 11:29 AM

There is significant right-wing bias at the BBC. Just consider the background of some of the most influential voices. I posted this in this thread on October 20:

"Pity you can't have Jezza Paxo back. All those years at the helm, then we find out that he was a Tory all along. Tsk. Or you could try Andrew Neil, who worked for the Conservatives in his youth and was once the chairman of the Federation of Conservative students, not to speak of his dalliances with those raving Marxists, Murdoch and the Barclay brothers - or how about Nick Robinson, once chairman of the Young Conservatives, or even his former editor Robbie Gibb who used to work for Francis Maude as his chief of staff. Or how about that nice Tory Chris Patten, former chairman of the BBC trust. Or the charming Kamal Ahmed, filched from his post as executive business editor of those rabid leftie papers the Daily and Sunday Telegraph. Flippin' reds under the beds everywhere at the Beeb, eh!"

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 11:05 AM

"Trusted?
not left wing?"
It is certainly trusted - it has nor really been 'left wing' sing teh Manchester Guardian days - one of the reasons it is respected by both left and right
Politically it is on par with teh Independent, but more accessible, in my opinion
Do you hoest;y believe the right wing press to be trustworthy?
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 10:49 AM

But even the articles selected from the daily mail are chosen with care. For example in the Mail Online at the moment an article saying UK driving licences will not be valid in the EU after Brexit without a specific agreement (though naturally is is presented as the EU being nasty) and another which is about the US selling us goods currently blocked by the protected name scheme.

Those dont seem to be raised for discussion.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 10:36 AM

Iains, seeing as people on your side of the discussion frequently use the Daily Mail and Guido Fawkes as sources I would consider my main source to be infinitely more reliable.

But then again we are getting away from the subject matter which is Brexit which people on your side seem strangely reluctant to discuss.

Got any good news yet.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 10:24 AM

New Mossers opens in St Ives on Thursday, Steve. Any use to you?

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 10:22 AM

"We had this discussion a matter of days ago Iains and I provided links which clearly show the Guardian is not only one of the most trusted newspapers but is clearly not left wing."

Trusted?
not left wing?

Does not say much for the quality of your links now, does it?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 10:16 AM

"Many here seem to accept the offerings of certain publications as absolute truth. I think the bible gives the lie to that assumption."

I can think of only one who considers the bible at all Iains.

However some news sources are regarded as more reliable than others. The Mail and the Sun often don't come close.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 10:10 AM

Every reporter has bias. The problem is to recognise how much. To say a source is trusted is an opinion - how do you prove it?
Better to confirm from several sources. Sadly sometimes the MSM will not cover a story and then the internet, RT, Al Jazeera and other sources need to be perused.
Many here seem to accept the offerings of certain publications as absolute truth. I think the bible gives the lie to that assumption.
Even the BBC is demonstrably biased

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 09:04 AM

It's difficult to see the light when looking backwards through rose tinted specs, Steve.

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 08:45 AM

The situation in Italy will very likely put a eurosceptic coalition in power. That's going to have a negative impact on the UK's brexit aspirations. The Italians will be watching proceedings like hawks for any sign of EU concessions or fudges. Of course, the other bad news is Trump's protectionist grandstanding. So much for a special deal with the yanks then. I mean, how much more of this stuff will it take for brexiteers to see the light?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 07:42 AM

We had this discussion a matter of days ago Iains and I provided links which clearly show the Guardian is not only one of the most trusted newspapers but is clearly not left wing.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 07:35 AM

What rational person would take the slightest notice of a left wing rag like the Guardian.

Says the man who constantly quotes The Daily Heil and Guido. Well done, Iains, your use of irony is truly magnificent :-)

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 07:24 AM

What rational person would take the slightest notice of a left wing rag like the Guardian. You would get more sense off private eye.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 07:07 AM

An article in todays Guardian by Polly Toynbee which may have slipped under the radar suggests that Business Leaders in the UK are privately "speaking of a disaster ahead" and "looming job losses"

Not at all encouraging news.

Disaster Ahead?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 06:56 AM

Not too much of a problem, Dave. The next event of significance is likely to be the EU rejecting the UK proposal (expected tomorrow) and then to-ing and fro-ing for a few weeks.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 06:44 AM

The garden of Eden is growing a few weeds!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/05/italy-turns-back-on-europe-as-election-points-to-hung-parliament

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 05 Mar 18 - 06:34 AM

Sorry for the distraction again DMcG but things seem to have fizzled out on the May speech front. No surprise really. It was a bit of a damp squib and I suspect our resident brexiteers have realised the same.

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 04 Mar 18 - 06:46 PM

Nero d'Avola is produced in huge quantities every year in Sicily, Dave. It's the country wine of Sicily and it's what you get everywhere if you ask for the house red. It's never that complex, but at its best it's a fruity glass of Sicilian sunshine. As always there'll be the odd poor specimen. I'm not keen on the Lidl single-bottle one. I haven't tried yer Spar one. Another great Sicilian one is Nerello Mascalese which is grown on the volcanic soils on the flanks of Mount Etna. We had grand ones in Sicily but it's usually a bit pricey this end. Wotwine likes the Morrison's one but we didn't like it much. One man's fish is another man's poisson...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 04 Mar 18 - 05:51 PM

Thing is, Iains, the EU definitely wants us to stay. But the EU thinks we're leaving. They will make things as difficult as possible for us to leave, pour encourager les autres. On the other hand, if they think we may stay, which would be massively in their interests, they will have to listen to any demands for reform. They didn't do that when Cameron made his ill-fated sortie before the referendum because they didn't see the need to give us anything: neither the EU nor Cameron thought for one second that we would vote to leave, so why would they. But it's different now. And I believe there is a groundswell for reform in Europe. The UK in a reformed EU is in everybody's interests. And nothing else comes close.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 04 Mar 18 - 05:28 PM

The cheap Spar Nero didn't get any better I'm afraid. Had to break into my reserve supply of Black Sheep instead.

Ah well. It was only £3.99

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 04 Mar 18 - 01:38 PM

He's a bag of wind and piss, Dave. And feeble-minded.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 04 Mar 18 - 12:39 PM

Easy mistake to make Keith. You are not known for your sense of humour. Lots of other things, yes. Humour, no.

DtG