BS: Post Brexit life in the UK

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 09:24 AM

From: Steve Shaw
As a matter of fact, we didn't actually elect Theresa May, did we?

Nor any other Prime minister!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 09:05 AM

No, no that's far too much work. I just need a pan, a stove and two two other items to make honey.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 09:03 AM

So the Eurozone put in a RECORD performance, the US showed the HIGHEST factory growth but the UK SLOWED .............

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 09:01 AM

It seems that this bunch of clowns can't even get a re-shuffle right
Worserer and worserer as each day passes - wait till the real problems wit Brexit start to surface!!
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 08:59 AM

As a matter of fact, we didn't actually elect Theresa May, did we?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 08:57 AM

If it means that you personally will have to chew and disgorge the nectar seven times to thicken it up into honey, Raggytash, I think I'll stick to Peruvian lemon curd substitute...

Do keep up, Keith. The government is not replacing subsidies to farmers like-for-like. By the time this ragbag bunch of incompetents have finished the farmers will be pleading on their hands and knees, come back, unelected bureaucrats, all is forgiven...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 08:43 AM

We'll all start doing wartime recipes Steve, I can make honey thats never seen a hive or a bee.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 08:39 AM

Rag,
So the Eurozone put in a RECORD performance,

Only in December.

" Instead of giving our CAP donation to the EU it could go straight to farmers."
Would that be along the same lines as to giving ?350,000,000 to the NHS?.

We pay much more into CAP than is returned to us in grants.
More money will be available after Brexit.

Steve,
The government has already said that it won't "give it straight to farmers."

Our government can decide the criteria instead of unelected CAP beaurocrats.
If they get it wrong they can be voted out

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 08:36 AM

Well I suppose they could "grow more here" by planting things closer together, or we could start a national window-box campaign... no doubt the expert Mr Grayling will tell us how it's to be done.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 08:01 AM

Don't forget they have to do all that at the same time as "growing more here" according to Chris Grayling (in October), if prices rise for imported EU food.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 07:55 AM

The government has already said that it won't "give it straight to farmers." Farmers are going to have to do environmentally nice things, as yet unspecified, and open the land up, etc. (sure, let the public trample all over their fields!), before they'll get any dough. And you can bet your life that it'll be a damn sight less than they get now. Most farms in this country rely on subsidies to survive. This is a time bomb. Yet why make it a priority when agriculture generates less than 1% of GDP, said the cynic...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 07:44 AM

" Instead of giving our CAP donation to the EU it could go straight to farmers."

Would that be along the same lines as to giving £350,000,000 to the NHS?.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 07:33 AM

"what with thousands of farms already on the brink and those subsidies drying up."

This statement is true throughout the EU. As I said before the CAP has to have a revised system in place by 2020. This will have ramifications IN AND OUT OF THE EU. Instead of giving our CAP donation to the EU it could go straight to farmers. I refer you to my post below.
From: Iains - PM
Date: 08 Jan 18 - 07:10 AM
You do love to highlight perceived negatives, do you not?
I recommend you study the big picture and then you will see how fallacious your comments are!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 07:25 AM

Oh dear, it seems David Davis is getting upset because the EU is making plans for a no-deal situation. What does he expect them to do when the Prime Minister has already stated that "no deal is btter than a bad deal"

David Davis

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 06:15 AM

IFS website, 27 July 2017:

"Around 30% of food purchased by households in the UK is imported. The major source of total food imports is the EU (which accounts for 70% of gross food imports). This means changes in the costs of imports – for example, through changes to tariffs or movements in exchange rates – are likely to have a big impact on the price consumers pay for food." Plenty more pessimism where that came from too.

70% of our gross food imports come from the EU. NOT 70% of our food, of course. We do manage to produce some ourselves. It'll be interesting to see how much less we'll produce when we leave the EU, what with thousands of farms already on the brink and those subsidies drying up. Which they will, just like that £350 million a week for the NHS has already dried up. Maybe Theresa May will just plant a few more bogus forests or pay farmers a pittance to turn their land into crazy golf courses or hang bird feeders in the bushes.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 06:02 AM

Polly Toynbee's "convictions" have shifted radically over the years. All credit to her for that. Yours have never budged a single thou. Positively set in stone and with a thinking department to match. Just try addressing what she wrote without your predigested notions in place and with your ideological Tory hat off.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 05:57 AM

From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 08:52 AM
The IFS states that 70% of our gross food imports come from the EU.

I would love to see these sort of comments (by the IFS, not getting at Steve) accompanied by definitions of their terms.

Does the above statement mean that 70% of the food we use originates in other EU states?
Or, perhaps, does it mean that we buy it from other member states, who, in turn, import it from outside the EU (in which case the price already includes EU tariffs)

A little more clarity could make a big difference.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 05:40 AM

What was written in the text:

"Manufacturing surveys for the UK, US and eurozone have been strong, with the eurozone putting in a record performance in December while the US showed the highest factory growth since 2015. Activity at Britain’s factories slowed but was described as “solid”.

So the Eurozone put in a RECORD performance, the US showed the HIGHEST factory growth but the UK SLOWED .............

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 05:25 AM

Thanks for reminding us of the well known convictions of Polly Toynbee.
Here is what Guardian's actual economists said just 7 days ago.

"UK, US and eurozone manufacturing expands strongly at year-end – as it happened
Eurozone manufacturing PMI hit record high in December and US posts strongest factory growth since 2015, while UK factory growth was ‘solid’"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/jan/02/stock-markets-set-to-extend-2017s-winning-streak-business-live

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 08 Jan 18 - 07:34 PM

Mike, my greatest love twenty years ago, in those simpler times, was The Macallan ten-year-old. But then they started mucking around with names and I completely lost track of what was what Macallan-wise. A more recent thing has happened with my two favourites, Laphroaig and Talisker. The plain old Laphroaig ten-year-old is a thing of beauty, as ever, and so is the Quarter Cask. But what the blazes is that "Select?"   Muck! Talisker ordinary 10-year-old is a class act, but Talisker Storm and Talisker Skye are kiddies' whisky!

I blame brexit, global warming and Trump. And Mourinho. And Mansour. And Thatcher. And Chamberlain. And Sir Ian McGregor. And why should Disraeli get away unscathed...

Ahah, I see Yeovil have got Man U next round! Liverpool seem to have it easy but that's exactly the sort of match they can screw up...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 08 Jan 18 - 07:19 PM

From Polly Toynbee in today's Guardian:

"Look at the economy. Brexiters can’t hide our steep fall from the top of the G7 growth league before the referendum, to bottom of it now, as the eurozone and global economy lift off without us. Sterling plunged and car sales fell while shares boomed irrationally sky high. True, no Brexit Armageddon arrived – but nor has Brexit, yet."

Couldn't have put it better myself!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: MikeL2
Date: 08 Jan 18 - 02:42 PM

Hi Steve

I agree...I don't know what on earth came over Holgate and he should have gone, I thought the Ref should have sent him off immediately which would have saved all the unpleasant scenes . ... and the manhandling of the ref and other Liverpool players. I thought they were to be praised for not allowing this to develop further.

Hark at me praising Liverpool - mind you The Mcallan is good stuff.

Regards Mike

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 08 Jan 18 - 07:10 AM

There is very little point is discussing food prices in or out of the UK without having some knowledge of the CAP and how much it contributes to farmers incomes (   
farmers welfare! )   
Direct payments benefit nearly 7 million farms throughout the. European Union and often represent an important share of their agricultural income (on average, nearly half of farmers' income in the last ten years came from this ..
The lion's share (72%) of the current EU farm budget is dedicated to direct payments for European farmers. ... On average direct payments amount to ?267 per eligible hectare.

The CAP benefits large landowners just for owning more land. EU protectionism on agriculture has been criticised for the costs it imposes on consumers through higher food prices and the costs it imposes on developing countries by making it difficult for them to compete with EU farmers.

The current Government says it will continue to make payments to UK farmers on the same basis as now until 2020. Negotiations are already underway within the EU on how to reform the next round of CAP, so the CAP will change in any case (and may need substantial reform given the budget shortfall post-Brexit). 14.1% less rebate. Should subsidies shrink post 2020 prices will inevitably rise to accommodate at least a component of the resulting shortfall in income.
Happy Days ahead!

Essentially very few farms in the EU are viable without CAP support.
This has to reform for 2020 to implement the next round.
Until this next round is thrashed out the outcome and it's impact on food prices in or out of the EU is totally unknown territory.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 08 Jan 18 - 04:42 AM

Hoops, lads. No need to jump.

They can't Dave.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 02:07 PM

Another cabinet reshuffle due to be announced tomorrow
I think Maay Blossom and Donald the Div must have a bet on as to how many they can sack in the shortest time
Next step - trying to suppress memoirs
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 02:07 PM

Another cabinet reshuffle due to be announced tomorrow
I think Maay Blossom and Donald the Div must have a bet on as to how many they can sack in the shortest time
Next step - trying to suppress memoirs
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 12:45 PM

Hoops, lads. No need to jump.

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 12:14 PM

Steve,
After brexit we will have to impose tariffs on those imports if we want to strike favourable deals with non-EU countries

That is bollocks Steve.
Where did you get such a ludicrous notion?
WE would choose which products required tariffs, and WTO says you can not discriminate between countries except by having free trade deals.
We only need apply them to protect UK producers.

EU would be self harming if they goad us into imposing tarifs against their exports. Their exports will already be less attractive to us without the tarifs against non-EU foods.

The imports already cost more because of the way the pound has soared downward,

That factor has caused a little inflation but has now moved through the system. It is no longer causing inflation.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 08:56 AM

Ah yes, Mike! That goal guarantees that he'll be the new darling of the Kop. Bit of a soft penalty... but I was gobsmacked when Holgate wasn't sent off. I thought that Bobby Firmino reacted like a normal human being in the face of that extreme provocation. Wonder what he said, though. Apparently, neither the ref nor Holgate speak Portuguese, so will we ever know?!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 08:52 AM

The IFS states that 70% of our gross food imports come from the EU. After brexit we will have to impose tariffs on those imports if we want to strike favourable deals with non-EU countries The imports already cost more because of the way the pound has soared downward, Keith. A double whammy. Still, I admire your brave face. You're not only one putting one on here in the last few days.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: MikeL2
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 08:50 AM

Hi Steve

"< I can argue footie in benificent mode even with a crusty old Tory such as Mike! That's the way to do it!

Hey less of the crusty !!!!

Watch Pool beat Everton....looks like VanDyj is going to be a great buy.

Regards Mike

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 06:52 AM

"Because of EU we have to charge steep tariffs on food imports not from EU, which is most of it"

https://qz.com/716156/the-british-import-a-quarter-of-their-food-from-the-eu-and-thats-a-problem/


The Quartz article clearly shows that just 19% of food is not either home produced (54%) or sourced from the EU (27%)

Could someone erudite explain to me when 19% became "most of it"

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 06:45 AM

In your dreams PAL! With the world population rising inexorably, and the sources of cheap food becoming more affluent because they are supplying cheap food, currently, and thus better able to feed themselves and will ........... you work it out in your more lucid waking moments.

What has that to do with Brexit?
Because of EU we have to charge steep tariffs on food imports not from EU, which is most of it.
That will make 75% of our food imports cheaper, and EU will still need us to buy their food, wine and beer or they will be in trouble.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 06:40 AM

Steve,
Prove that brexit won't give us worse food.

Prove that it will.
We only get a quarter of our food from the EU and the rest has steep tariffs imposed because of EU.

On Brexit we can choose what tarifs to apply to protect our own producers.

Also the EU will not want food tarifs with us because of the damage it would to to their food and drink industry.

Rag,
"Scotiabank's ......... The company ranked at number 41 on the SNL Financial World's 100 biggest banks listing

A major world player then, and the economist was using the figures supplied by ONS. Heard of them Rag?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Mr Red
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 06:37 AM

Brexit will give us cheaper food.

In your dreams PAL! With the world population rising inexorably, and the sources of cheap food becoming more affluent because they are supplying cheap food, currently, and thus better able to feed themselves and will ........... you work it out in your more lucid waking moments.

And then there is the BRICS becoming more affluent. (aka food waste).

And Brexit is bringing us food price rises in the short term. And in 40 years we have gone from spending 18% of income on food to 11% currently. Funded by under-nourished Africa.

And I didn't mention global warming moving the deserts further to the poles, and crop yields diminishing with rising temperatures, and the insect world changing their habits and, and ..........

Of course science will come to the rescue, it always will. But it may just be more vegetarian. AND vitamin B12 pills or in the food by legislation. Remember calcium, aka chalk, in bread? Thought not! I don't remember that WW2 UK law being repealed.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 06:29 AM

Prove that brexit won't give us worse food. Prove that brexit won't mean lower-welfare food. Prove that we can suddenly stop buying stuff from Europe because there are massive surpluses everywhere else ready to be sold to us on the cheap. Well I suppose I can always wash down my GM-stuffed chlorine chicken with Nigerian Prosecco... I suppose you have a goodly supply of cloud cuckoos down there in your Hertford freezers.

The Telegraph piece is so full of caveats that I don't know what your point is in directing us to it.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 06:18 AM

I would trust QM over and above the Torygraph

Everything in that Quartz piece is refuted by my statement, "We can now only buy expensive EU food or cheaper non-EU food bearing stiff tariffs.

Brexit will give us cheaper food. "

If there is any fallacy in that staement, pleaseidentify it.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 06:17 AM

Quartz Media.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quartz_(publication)


Here you go boys and girls a link to the Wiki page for Quartz Media. You will see no doubt that some of it's founders were from the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, the New York Times and Bloomberg.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 06:11 AM

"Scotiabank's ......... The company ranked at number 41 on the SNL Financial World's 100 biggest banks listing, September 2013 and is led by President and CEO Brian J. Porter"

Ooh premier league bank !!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 06:08 AM

Rag,
Just one or two lines from that link:

Which of them do you suggest might be related to Brexit, and why?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 06:07 AM

I would trust QM over and above the Torygraph any day but no picture is ever complete without looking at all the different views.

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 06:03 AM

Rag, who or what is "Quartz Media" and why should anyone pay them any attention?

Telegraph 16 days ago,
Britain?s economy grew by 0.4pc in the third quarter and by 1.7pc on the year, an unexpectedly strong result which indicates the UK is proving more resilient than feared.
Sustained household spending growth helped drive the increase, as well as expansions in the accounting, recruitment and retailing sectors which were strong performers in the dominant services industry.
Manufacturers were also boosted by rising exports and sales of new car models, the Office for National Statistics said.

Economist Alan Clarke at Scotiabank said this bodes well for 2017?s overall GDP growth, defying expectations of a serious slowdown.
He had previously forecast growth of between 1.5pc and 1.6pc, but has now upgraded his forecast to 1.8pc.
?It is really quite a pleasant end to the year. The IMF got loads of headlines for downgrading their forecasts, but really they are the Johnny-come-latelies, they should have waited for this data. It is looking better than we all thought,? he said.
?If anyone had said in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote that the economy would only slow from 1.9pc in 2016 to 1.8pc now, we?d have been very happy with that.?
Growth will stay at similar levels next year, he believes, as the squeeze on incomes from inflation gradually fades.
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/22/gdp-grew-04pc-final-reading-third-quarter-says-ons/

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 06:01 AM

Just one or two lines from that link:

"If productivity growth had followed its pre-financial crisis trend, then output per hour worked would be around 20pc higher today."

"“The rebound in productivity in the third quarter is highly welcome, but it needs to be seen in the context of a particularly poor first-half performance. There needs to be sustained improvement to ease concerns over the UK’s overall poor productivity record,”

"while a lack of new investment is also a problem."

"Productivity fell in industries including mining and quarrying, water supply, and recreation and culture in the third quarter."

"“While this increase in productivity is a welcome and positive start to 2018, 0.9pc is still a small step at a time when giant leaps are needed”

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 06:00 AM

Productivity climbed. Prices rose. Yet pay remained the same. Sad times for all but the favoured few.

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 05:51 AM

Just to lighten the gloom,
Daily Telegraph 2 days ago,

Productivity climbed by 0.9pc in the three months to September as British workers produced more output in each hour worked than ever before.
Manufacturers and services firms reported growth of 1pc in the quarter while the public sector also managed a respectable 0.7pc, the Office for National Statistics said.
The jump in productivity was the fastest for any quarter since 2011.
Productivity rose as the economy accelerated but growth in employment stalled, meaning that a steady number of workers produced extra GDP.
Business investment also increased over the same period, which should help productivity to grow.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/01/05/uk-productivity-jumps-fastest-pace-since-2011/

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 05:47 AM

Imported Foods June 2016


Imported Foods

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 05:35 AM

food prices will be (are) on the rise.

We can now only buy expensive EU food or cheaper non-EU food bearing stiff tariffs.

Brexit will give us cheaper food.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 02:40 AM

I shouldn't force people to follow links like that. The heading of the article is:

"UK companies will face huge new VAT burden after Brexit

Controversial changes in bill would force importers to pay duty upfront on EU goods"

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 02:37 AM

Another ill-considered trifle

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Mr Red
Date: 06 Jan 18 - 12:04 PM

I heard on a satirical radio prog today that there was a proposal of using volunteer customs officers. Maybe it was some ministerial MP thinking aloud. And these volunteers would be sort of spies rather than vigilantes.

But ya gotta larf ain't ya?

Diesel cars, thus suggesting that uncertainty over these

H'mm. If you are going to buy a car and not a diesel - then ............ you work it out. Red Herring see "many factors"

This issue won't be the last. Change costs money. This is just an example that wasn't discussed or foreseen. House prices are always up and down (and there is talk of notso up) but food prices will be (are) on the rise. Ya can't rent food! It would serve us better to discuss "how many hours of hard work" an item costs. But that would involve mental thought. Reactionaries of this parish don't spend on that luxury.

I often refer to the cost of this or that (in this parish) as X number of cups of coffee. Because prices/taxes vary UK/US (etc) and while coffee is somewhat variable, it is universal.