BS: Post Brexit life in the UK

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 28 May 18 - 02:18 AM

This is sheer thread drift, but I have spent quite a few hours now thinking about that remark "There are exceptions to every rule." There really is a lot hidden in it, so I recommend it as something to tease away at in idle moments.

For example, my starting point was that it is a demarcation between scientific and non-scientific thinking. It is axiomatic in science - at least physical sciences and mathematics - that there are underlying rules without exceptions. So we try to formulate scientific laws that have no exceptions and, should we find one, we become very excited and are not happy until we have reformulated the way we express the law so there is no exception. Now some of these laws are of the form 'under these circumstances, this simplified version of the full law can be used as an extremely good approximation'; again exceptions to the rule lead to reformulation of the conditions when the simplification can be used.

So scientific thinking is never comfortable with the idea that "that there are exceptions to the rule". Non-scientific thinking is, on the other hand, inclined to react 'There an exception to the rule? Whatever - move on".

And every one of us is a blend of both attitudes.

As I say, that was my starting point.   In the process I wandered (and indeed wondered) through the law (which also does not admit exceptions but there are a surprising number of situations where you cannot decide if you have broken the law or not), politics, religion, how left and right wing related to this and many other topics.

I won't say any more about this here, but I repeat, I think it is well worth reflecting on.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 27 May 18 - 04:20 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHDpieAFjQ8

Will We, Won't We?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 27 May 18 - 04:12 PM

I hate auto text!!!!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 27 May 18 - 04:11 PM

...smells strong of self interest ...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 27 May 18 - 04:10 PM

I know Raggy. I don't mind minor drift between news items, but from the leave side we get so little, like the stuff from Nigel, for instance, that you can't talk about Brexit news because it hasn't happened yet.

It is interesting to hear from Dominic Cummings who is credited with some of the most significant 'Leave' slogans about what a mess he thinks it is. It sm Les strong I'd self interest and deniability to me, but there you are.

Also it is worth reminding people that select committee reports was not criticising the Uk-EU negotiations. It was all about the inability of the U.K. Government to decide what it wants to negotiate.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 May 18 - 03:57 PM

DMcG, All current posts from the pro-brexit side of this thread merely seek to obfuscate the main discussion.

If they could give us even one reason to believe that our leaving the EU was beneficial to our nation I would be pleased to consider it.

After almost two years I have not heard a single point to that effect.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 27 May 18 - 01:08 PM

But you were talking about people on this forum. That is what you said. To the best of my knowledge no Labour chancellor has ever posted here.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 27 May 18 - 01:07 PM

DMcG There are exceptions to every rule. A shame you could not share your knowledge with the previous labour governments.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 27 May 18 - 12:56 PM

However the appalling mathematical ignorance of the leftards on this forum amply demonstrates

Maybe, maybe not. But mine has been quite good enough to provide me with gainful employment as a mathematician in industry for my working life.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 27 May 18 - 12:45 PM

When discussing the outcome of any vote it is always in terms of the votes cast. Having facile "how many angels fit on a pinhead" type arguments about the intent of those either not entitled or too idle to vote is meaningless. However the appalling mathematical ignorance of the leftards on this forum amply demonstrates how, when applied to economics, they manage to shred the economy when in power.
leftard maths

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 27 May 18 - 10:18 AM

The EU has to get agreement from every one of its 27 members for a trade deal.
New Zealand and Australian meat products and wine are much cheaper than the French equivalent. I recall French farmers burning lorry loads of live British sheep and lambs because they undercut theirs.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 27 May 18 - 09:28 AM

That might be an interesting bet, Raggy. I imagine if you could find a Panglossian Brexit-supporting bookmaker you might get good odds.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 May 18 - 09:12 AM

Backwoodsman, do you take a gamble now and again.

Here's the bet.

The EU will get a better deal with New Zealand with their $16 Billion NZ Dollars spend than the UK will get with their $4 Billion NZ Dollars spend.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 27 May 18 - 09:08 AM

And of course my statement they disputed was factually correct. I seriously doubt that anyone who doesn't have the wit to understand the difference between 'the majority of the population' and 'the majority of those who voted' has the intelligence to make an informed choice and vote accordingly anyway - far more likely to be influenced by sound-bites, lies about NHS funding, and slogans repeated ad nauseam about 'take back control'....not to mention their own innate racist and xenophobic views.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 27 May 18 - 09:06 AM

BWM, re. the rest of your posts, I think you are wrong to suggest that the outcome was unknowable.
without even the slightest clue of what that change would involve, or what its result would mean

We did have more than the slightest clue. We see successful trading countries who are not part of EU or any equivalent, and many of us remember being such a country orselves.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 27 May 18 - 08:58 AM

....and, of course, I could ask the same question of Teribus-Iains. No response to the fact that they voted for nothing but an idea, driven into their thick heads by a tiny minority of Elites who stand to benefit massively financially from leaving the EU.

Why no response?

Because even Keefy and Teribus-Iains know, deep down, that they were shafted right royally by Bozo, Haddock-Face, The Scottish Viper, acting on behalf of that tiny minority of Elites, but to admit it would show them for the fools they, and their sort, are.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 27 May 18 - 08:44 AM

So, what about the rest of my post, Keefy - you know, the vast majority of it? Too difficult to refute, so you isolate one small point to pick at (even though other minds, considerably greater than yours, have spoken in support)?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 27 May 18 - 08:28 AM

It is a pointless point.
Some people did not vote, but the turnout was the biggests ever and there was a clear majority result.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 27 May 18 - 08:25 AM

That's a very selective quote, bobad. Did you miss this one two sentences later in the same post:



We have no knowledge of how those who did not vote would have voted, but it is factually accurate to say they did not vote for it.


Iains questioned its accuracy, not what interpretations could be put on it. It remains factually accurate that the majority did not vote for it.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: bobad
Date: 27 May 18 - 08:02 AM

The large majority of the population did NOT vote for it.

Nor did they against it thus it is a totally irrelevant statement.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 27 May 18 - 06:59 AM

"You couldn't make it up."
You don't have to Iains
51.9% of those who voted were leavers, 48.1% voted to stay, 28.7% of the population did not vote
It's you who need to work on your elementary maths
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 27 May 18 - 06:59 AM

"You couldn't make it up."
You don't have to Iains
51.9% of those who voted were leavers, 48.1% voted to stay, 28.7% of the population did not vote
It's you who need to work on your elementary maths
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 May 18 - 06:37 AM

Iains, the majority of people either voted against it or did not vote at all.

Their misjudgement admittedly, but they are still a majority of the population.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 27 May 18 - 06:33 AM

"but the large majority of the population who did not vote for it."
I guess elementary maths. is not your strongest subject?

The large majority of the population did NOT vote for it. A relatively small marotiy OF THOSE WHO VOTED did favour leaving.

We have no knowledge of how those who did not vote would have voted, but it is factually accurate to say they did not vote for it.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 27 May 18 - 06:24 AM

"but the large majority of the population who did not vote for it."
I guess elementary maths. is not your strongest subject?
You couldn't make it up.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 27 May 18 - 06:03 AM

"Rag, how can there be any news about something yet to happen?"

A single sentence that epitomises the crass idiocy of people who voted for the biggest change since the end of WW2, without even the slightest clue of what that change would involve, or what its result would mean for, not only themselves, but the large majority of the population who did not vote for it. Not only that, they continue to defend their Leave vote, and heap scorn on those who ask them to support it with actual facts.

You couldn't make it up.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 May 18 - 05:20 AM

Yet another warning to the Government regarding future border controls, this time from the operators of Eurotunnel (who you would expect know a thing or two about the subject).

Once again they are warning that the MaxFac option could cost businesses and consumers around £20 Billion per annum, but also warning that the other option the Customs Partnership would also add costs, extra checks and bureaucracy.

Eurotunnel warning

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 27 May 18 - 04:12 AM

Rag, how can there be any news about something yet to happen?

All you produce is speculation, and any bad economic news while ignoring any good economic news.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 May 18 - 04:01 AM

PS Found any good news about Brexit yet?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 May 18 - 04:00 AM

I stand corrected Iains.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 27 May 18 - 03:49 AM

"It emerged in February that Best for Britain had accepted a £400,000 donation from Mr Soros, the Hungarian-born financier who bet against sterling on Black Wednesday in 1992 – earning him one billion dollars."Really? Twenty six years, One billion dollars? In one deal?
Do you actually believe that?

Yes. Is there any particular reason I should not? If you are trying to make some sort of point may I suggest you research the topic first. Then you would not look quite so stupid.

The Independant:
George Soros is widely known as the man who “broke” the Bank of England in 1992, when he bet against the pound and made a reported £1.5bn.

Investopedia:
The British government gave in and withdrew from the ERM as it became clear that it was losing billions trying to buoy its currency artificially. Although it was a bitter pill to swallow, the pound came back stronger because the excess interest and high inflation were forced out of the British economy following the beating. Soros pocketed $1 billion on the deal and cemented his reputation as the premier currency speculator in the world.

Forbes:
no one made more than Soros, who cleared $1.5 billion in that fateful month of September. (The score made Soros' legend and swelled his firm's coffers; assets under management jumped to $7 billion, from $3.3 billion, by mid-October 1992, and to $11 billion by the end of 1993.)

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 26 May 18 - 03:42 PM

Sorry that should read $17,000,000,000 in one deal.

Wouldn't mind being a quid behind him!!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 26 May 18 - 03:02 PM

Just to put that in some sort of context. The deal would have made him (in todays' figures) $1,700,000,000.

Seventeen billions dollars!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 26 May 18 - 02:38 PM

Iains:

"It emerged in February that Best for Britain had accepted a £400,000 donation from Mr Soros, the Hungarian-born financier who bet against sterling on Black Wednesday in 1992 – earning him one billion dollars."

Really? Twenty six years, One billion dollars? In one deal?

Do you actually believe that?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 26 May 18 - 01:54 PM

You're still not responding to anything Iains
Can we assume that you've withdrawn all your "good news"?
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 26 May 18 - 01:48 PM

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5764591/Best-Britain-backed-George-Soros-plans-stop-Brexit.html

The remoaners keep some fine company!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 26 May 18 - 12:44 PM

DMcG, did it come as a surprise to you that negotiations have not been going well?
Dave, all the forecasts from the Leave campaign have so far proved to be wrong, and who is interested in more forecasts?
Project Fear is still in full swing.

Inevitably there will be a transitional cost, and obviously the current uncertainty causes problems.

At least we are currently enjoying record low government borrowing, record tax take, record low unemployment and record exports.

Read what Peter Osborne says about the threat to EU from Italy.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-5773311/PETER-OBORNE-Forget-Brexit-Italy-trigger-collapse-EU.html

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 26 May 18 - 08:12 AM

And let me highlight this sentence that both sides agreed to:

The Secretary of State has ruled out any extension of the Customs Union but in the absence of any other plan, such an extension will be the only viable option

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 26 May 18 - 08:10 AM


The progress of the UK’s negotiations on EU withdrawal (March to May 2018)



The above is the link to the Select Committee report I referenced earlier.    This was unanimously agreed by the whole committee, including Jacob Rees-Mogg. You can see the full list of commitee members in the report. This is not "Leavers" putting a spin on things, then, but both leaver and remain agreeing in writing that neither of the proposed customs models, including that favoured by Brexiteers could be achieved in the time available.


20.
It is highly unsatisfactory that nearly two years after the referendum, Ministers have yet to agree, and set out in detail, what kind of trading and customs arrangements they wish to seek in negotiations with the European Union. The Secretary of State has said that the EU’s dismissal of the UK’s original proposals for its future customs arrangements was an opening negotiating position. However, the Government admits that further work is required to make both the maximum facilitation proposal and the new customs partnership proposal viable propositions. Moreover, trade in goods currently regulated through the Customs Union is not the only challenge that must be resolved in order to secure frictionless trade. Significant elements of intra-EU trade are also regulated through Single Market legislation that sits alongside the Customs Union. As the December text agreed between the Government and the European Union makes clear, agreement on solutions to maintain frictionless trade on the Northern Ireland/Republic of Ireland border cannot wait until the transition/implementation period. The European Council, the UK Parliament and the European Parliament will need absolute clarity on the UK’s future customs arrangement before being asked to approve the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration.

21.
The Government has indicated that neither the maximum facilitation proposal nor the new customs partnership, if agreed, is likely to be ready in time during the agreed 21-month transition/implementation period. Each option will have to be judged against the commitment repeatedly made by the Government to have no hard border in Northern Ireland, no infrastructure at the border and to uphold in full the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement. The Prime Minister has alluded to “contingencies” that can be triggered in this eventuality but has not set them out. The Secretary of State has ruled out any extension of the Customs Union but in the absence of any other plan, such an extension will be the only viable option. The Committee calls on the Government to set out clearly its proposals on customs beyond 2020, and any contingency plans as a matter of urgency. This should include whether it is likely that an extension of the transition/implementation period will be required and whether it intends to seek to include the option for such an extension in the Withdrawal Agreement. It is also highly likely that any special contingencies that are necessary at the border will have to be replicated in other Member States if they are to be effective.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 26 May 18 - 08:07 AM

That is a bit surprising isn't it.

What is even more surprising is that even with my extensive perusal of the various news and media sites, every day, I have still to find one positive report of Brexit anywhere.

I must be looking in the wrong places. Perhaps Iains or Nigel could point me in the right direction.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 26 May 18 - 07:53 AM

It astonishes me how people can say there are lots at positive forecasts and yet when asked to give examples they cannot do so. It shouldn't I suppose but I do tend to take people at face value. Apart from those who have already proven themselves to be dishonest.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 26 May 18 - 06:36 AM

DOESN'T LOOK LIKE "GOOD NEWS" TO ME
NOR DOES THIS
MAYBE THIS IS THE "GOOD NEWS"
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 26 May 18 - 06:19 AM

Aaaahh, so you did, Raggy! My apologies.

But at least 'Weer taking are cuntry back', so the BrexShiteers can rest easy in their beds tonight, knowing that by this time next year everything will be wonderful - the NHS will be getting an extra £350m a week, the 'imagrunts' will have all been deported, all those 'easy' and 'straightforward' trade agreements will have been lovingly placed in our national lap by a grateful world, and their longed-for unicorns will be frolicking amongst the flowers and the butterflies.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 26 May 18 - 06:05 AM

I mentioned this a few days ago Backwoodsman, needless to say none of the Brexiteers could find an adequate response to it.

But, put in simple terms, the EU trade with New Zealand is about $20 Billion NZ Dollars the UK part of that trade is about £4 Billion NZ Dollars.

We are simply not going to get the same terms on our own with only a quarter of the trade.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 26 May 18 - 05:54 AM

Well this doesn't look like good news, but I'm sure our BrexShiteer Bumpkins will attempt to put a polish on the turd.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 26 May 18 - 05:41 AM

Another potential unintended consequence of Brexit, the cost of custom checks on British Business could be £20 Billion per annum.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44238226

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 26 May 18 - 05:28 AM

A reminder of what the Brexit vote was all about. Some here seem to forget.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQjWV9Bhc0g

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 26 May 18 - 04:55 AM

On a lighter note Steve, a schemetic map of Brexit has been drawn up.

Looks jolly interesting !!



Brexit Map

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 26 May 18 - 04:48 AM

Rag,
Every bit of information I have gleaned in the past two years has been negative

That is because you only go looking for negative speculation.
For every negative one in the Guardian there is a positive one elsewhere, but no-one on that side is silly enough to think that posting links counts as debate!

5000!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 26 May 18 - 04:42 AM

Lack of intelligence.