BS: Post Brexit life in the UK

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 23 Oct 17 - 04:50 AM

Raggytash.The pound started sliding long before Brexit, as has already been pointed out. IT has also traded lower than the present and not so very long ago.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 23 Oct 17 - 04:45 AM

OK Terikins I concede that one. The rest is all conjecture by both sides of the debate.

The 50 studies commissioned by David Davis into the impact of Brexit on various industries could also be construed as conjecture, however that information, gathered presumably by people with knowledge of the industry concerned, is being withheld from both the members of the House of Commons and the public at large.

With little, if any, factual information, how can people take decisions that will affect us all for an indeterminate period.

As for your other points

1. What evidence do you have to support the assertion that prices from other suppliers will be lower.

2. Yep, OTHER people are getting THEIR imports at lower costs, great for them. We however are paying MORE for our imports.

3. What evidence is there to support the assertion that the EU will still need the extra 11 Billion with the UK withdrawing, their costs will decrease to some extent. (If you have the correct figures please pass them to the UK government, it looks like they could do with your help).

4. The pound has consistently traded at approx 14-15% lower than before Brexit. Your assertion "While Backwardsman wails about the pound going through the floor (which it has not)" is utter nonsense, quite easily disproved by figures already provided by Nigel on this thread.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 23 Oct 17 - 04:16 AM

From: Jim Carroll - PM
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 07:21 AM
Great statement from The Labour Party this morning - they will not support Brexit if it goes against the interests of working people
Jim Carrroll

Who decides whether it goes against the interests of the working people? The Labour Party? The Unions? Jeremy Corbyn?

Anyway, the Labour Party have already supported Brexit. They voted in favour of issuing Article 50. At that point they should have known that UK would be committed to leaving.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 23 Oct 17 - 03:40 AM

happy families?

https://www.dissentmagazine.org/article/introduction-the-european-left-in-crisis

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/12/ideas-desperate-suppress-dissent-eus-days-numbered/

An interesting analysis


https://www.capitalandconflict.com/brexit/eu-trade-deal-or-no-deal/

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Teribus
Date: 23 Oct 17 - 03:24 AM

" I have yet to hear any "facts" with regard to Brexit .......... by either side in the UK."

Really Raggy?? How about this one:

Due to the result of the Referendum on Membership of the EU held in the UK on 23rd June, 2016 and the formal notification of our intention to leave the EU, triggering the Article 50 process, delivered on the 29th March, 2017. As of the 29th March 2019 the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will no longer be a member of the European Union.

There is no "hard Brexit" there is no "soft Brexit". We are either "IN" or "OUT", and we will be "OUT".

At the moment the UK negotiating team is fully prepared and willing to discuss and negotiate all aspects of our leaving the EU as is stated as a requirement by the EU's own procedures. The EU's negotiators on the other hand are not. The time is ticking away, the clock is running down and as it does so there is greater likelihood of there being a "no deal" result. Now who's fault is that? For there to be any sort of deal the EU Commission MUST START negotiations.

Other facts about Brexit Raggy:

1: The UK is one of the EU's best internal customers. The EU loses a market of 65 million people, who will turn to other products from alternative suppliers in order to keep the weekly household bills down.

2: The cheaper pound? Has improved our exports and made our products more attractive world-wide, including the EU.

3: Out of the 27 countries in the EU post-Brexit there are only 9 of them who are detailed as being net contributor states with Germany being by far the largest contributor. German industry will also be the sector hit the worst by losing us as a customer. For the gravy train to continue down the track as it is, those 9 net contributor states have to find an additional 11 billion, possibly more, between them, which I doubt they can do.

4: While Backwardsman wails about the pound going through the floor (which it has not) he conveniently forgets to detail or mention the woes and tribulations of the Eurozone that are very real and widespread (Macron in France had best get on with pushing his reforms through, he has done nothing yet and his much vaunted "new broom" promises are beginning to look as impotent and ineffectual as the one's promised previously by Hollande). Greece with all it's problems for the Eurozone is still there and there is a list of other Eurozone countries that are perilously close to facing similar problems.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 23 Oct 17 - 03:20 AM

From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 10:37 AM
We do not trade under WTO rules with non-EU countries as we will have to once we leave, not to speak of the tariff barriers with the EU that'll spring up. We will desperately have to make new trading deals with countries a lot less desperate than us to do deals (the US, for example) and we will have to stick to the rules about level playing fields for tariffs. Brave faces don't butter no parsnips,

Two points in that paragraph:
1, We will have to trade under WTO rules once we leave.
2, We will have to make new trading deals with countries less desperate than us.

Ok, so which is it?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 23 Oct 17 - 03:16 AM

By your own admission you cannot separate fact from fiction, or fiction from fact. That makes most of your posts merely insulting irrelevancies.
Some of us wonder why you spend every hour on mudcat. You must lead a very empty life.

Meanwhile back to brexit and the cause of EU unity. Yet more hiccups on the road to unity. It gets better by the day! Makes your script look rather foolish, eh shaw?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5006907/MARK-ALMOND-shock-elections-Germany-Austria.html

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 08:16 PM

Thing is, Iains, you have contributed nothing to this discussion bar a few very ill-advised links to sources that you think promote your cause. Mostly, they are so nonsensical that they actually undermine your cause. You put no objective thought whatsoever into your posts. Now that's a fact. Generally, you follow criticism of your vacuous posts with silly insults and name-calling in posts that lack mature content of any kind. Go ahead. We can't wait. Or prove me wrong, hold your fire and show us all that you are finally on the beginning of the path to growing up.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 05:00 PM

Do you mean like the "debate" within the conservative party.

For example having a party leader who was against the Brexit idea in the first place and is now lumbered with the "organising" the UK leaving the EU.

A poisoned chalice if ever there was one.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 04:52 PM

Well that was a stunning contribution Shaw. It has advanced the discussion by leaps and bounds. It is obviously solely due to the efforts of a "well educated scientist."

I find it very peculiar that your "leader" clot corbyn refused to allow debate on Brexit during the recent labour party conference.
This is the most significant political event for the UK in decades and yet no discussion is allowed. I wonder what it is that the labour leadership is so sh*t scared of that such a debate might reveal?
Was it that rational discussion might reveal the brexit route to el dorado for the uk and bring creeping federalism in the EU to a grinding halt?
I know this subject matter might be a little beyond your understanding Shaw. Have a nice cup of chocolate and have an early night, and leave the rest of us to continue this interesting thread.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 04:01 PM

You won't get any from Iains, that's for sure. You'll get plenty of insults, invective, Blimpery and childishness. What you won't get is sensible discussion points. It's all in this thread for all to see.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 03:02 PM

Iains, I have yet to hear any "facts" with regard to Brexit .......... by either side in the UK.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 02:43 PM

I can hear the French farmers squealing already!

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/agri-business/eu-farm-subsidies-face-chop-due-to-brexit-budget-hole-35876636.html

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 02:22 PM

But Shaw, our arguments are based on fact whereas yours are based on a complete fantasy. Your hubris blinds you to reality, you poor soul.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 02:09 PM

Yeah well European cars are more desirable than ours. Not only that, most of our car industry is owned by foreigners who are keeping a sharp eye on potential deterioration of trading conditions. They can pull out. And applying sanctions is not necessarily vindictive. I don't regard our sanctions against apartheid South Africa as vindictive. If we don't pay our dues, that's pretty vindictive in my book. There's plenty of vindictive talk in the brexiteers camp. Want some samples? Read the posts of Teribus, akenaton and Iains whenever the EU is mentioned.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 01:59 PM

Where have I suggested that?

You suggested they may apply "sanctions" against us. Remember?

we will have to stick to the rules about level playing fields for tariffs.

So will EU.
We will not want to impose tariffs on food so non EU food will be cheaper for us.
EU farmers will take a hit. Poor them.

You mentioned cars. Unless we get free trade with EU we may want to apply a tariff which will make EU cars much less competitive here. Poor them. Non EU cars are already charged so will not be effected.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 10:49 AM

yawn!

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 10:40 AM

"It means that a vindictive EU will not be able to discriminate against us as you suggested they might."

Where have I suggested that?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 10:37 AM

We'll buy more than we sell with an extremely weak pound and on payment of tariffs once we leave. It will all soak up that mythical "eleven billion saving" and more, especially when you factor in the fact that our economy has been in limp mode since the referendum. And just wait for the massive hit on our service sector, about which you and the brexiteers are being suspiciously quiet.

We do not trade under WTO rules with non-EU countries as we will have to once we leave, not to speak of the tariff barriers with the EU that'll spring up. We will desperately have to make new trading deals with countries a lot less desperate than us to do deals (the US, for example) and we will have to stick to the rules about level playing fields for tariffs. Brave faces don't butter no parsnips, Keith.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 10:12 AM

Under WTO rules you can't favour one country over another by charging a lower tariff on particular goods, just in order to "do a deal" with them.

That is the rule and we successfully do most of our trading by those rules. No-one has suggested anything different.
It means that a vindictive EU will not be able to discriminate against us as you suggested they might.

And not everyone is going to be enthusiastic about doing deals with us, or even going to be caring a jot.

What is your reason for stating that? It is made up! We are one of the biggest economies and traders in the world. Why would anyone not want to trade. What countries choose not to trade with UK? None.

In terms of goods we are always going to buy more than we sell

Yes, and that makes us an ideal and highly attractive trading partner.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 09:08 AM

It's already done damage to working people - the pound through the floor, higher food prices. And that's only as a result of the referendum, God knows what carnage there'll be when the shower of shit posing as our 'negotiators' crash us over the Hard Brexit cliff edge.

The only people who can't see it are the wealthy, the Mucky-Toff sycophantic working-class Tory voters, and the feeble-minded who believed the BrexShit BullShit.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 08:47 AM

"If," Jim?"
I know and you know what damage it had done so far Steve
It's about time them indoors started to get the picture
They never listen to us - do they?
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 07:43 AM

"If," Jim?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 07:21 AM

Great statement from The Labour Party this morning - they will not support Brexit if it goes against the interests of working people
Jim Carrroll

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 06:05 AM

"...the Alt State will do everything to reverse democracy.... the oxygen would be better employed keeping Remainers out of power."

...Two snippets from yer blogger there. Someone else who doesn't do irony, I see. Doing all in your power to keep out (therefore to shut up) people representative of 48% of the people who voted and to populate your powerbase with enthusiastic leavers only. Now that's what I call a REAL reversal of democracy. Why don't you actually read the stuff you link to first before posting it?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 03:58 AM

That is one guys blog. He is entitled to his opinion of course, but it is worth little more than mine or yours.

There is a classic attempt to get his attack in first in the 'about pages:

Progressives would dismiss all this as Sample of One, but their dismissal is complete bollocks: it is the collection of personally observed behaviour based on multiple examples, and typified by hundreds of individuals. It simply will not do to write it off as emotional bigotry.


Protest as you will, it is a sample of one. And note that it is only progressives who are singled out here.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 22 Oct 17 - 03:35 AM

Here is an analysis you will not find in the mainstream meedjah.

https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2017/10/20/the-alt-state-v-brexit-why-we-must-fire-hammond-and-purge-the-treasury/

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 21 Oct 17 - 03:19 PM

Under WTO rules you can't favour one country over another by charging a lower tariff on particular goods, just in order to "do a deal" with them. All this talk of doing amazing deals with anyone and everyone has to be seen through that lens. It's going to be a minefield. And not everyone is going to be enthusiastic about doing deals with us, or even going to be caring a jot. In terms of goods we are always going to buy more than we sell. And I have yet to hear anyone addressing the labyrinthine nightmare that our service sector is going to face.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 21 Oct 17 - 12:39 PM

We will still be buying stuff from the EU. We are not suddenly going to stop

Of course not, but we will be free to buy stuff from the rest of the world too.
We can choose whether we apply tariffs or not, and we can stop buying EU stuff that is more expensive than alternatives.

And WTO tariff rules are not a free-for-all, by the way.

They are freer than the restrictive EU, and we already do most of our trade that way anyway. It works very well.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 21 Oct 17 - 06:30 AM

" It is not a battle with locked horns between two adversaries and to view it that way is idiotic - if they want a deal then THEY have to start negotiating..."

But everything you post characterises the situation in precisely that way. It certainly isn't the way I see it. Make your mind up, Woodcock.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 21 Oct 17 - 06:26 AM

Brave face, wishful thinking. Say what you like. We will still be buying stuff from the EU. Lots of it. There are not massive warehouses all over the world containing the same goods that the EU currently sells us, just waiting for 2019. We are not suddenly going to stop eating Camembert, driving VW Golfs, cooking with extra virgin olive oil, drinking Chianti and heating our houses with French electricity. It's facile to think that the world is replete with suitable alternatives for everything, all geared up to start supplying us (not tariff-free, lest we forget) in March 2019. We are highly dependent on doing business with the EU with our service sector and that will be severely hit by bureaucratic barriers that don't currently exist. Fears over brexit have hammered the pound, fired up inflation and stalled productivity and growth. It's anyone's guess how much worse it will look in 18 months' time. And WTO tariff rules are not a free-for-all, by the way.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Teribus
Date: 21 Oct 17 - 06:24 AM

Well no it is not quite as simple as you would like to think Shaw. It is not 27:1. It is not 443 million: 65 million. It is not a battle with locked horns between two adversaries and to view it that way is idiotic - if they want a deal then THEY have to start negotiating or they will be screwed out of "a deal" by THEIR OWN rules and treaty conditions. There are costs to both in this equation and I do not think for a second that the EU Commission has even considered that aspect of it yet. Merkel in Germany I am sure is being reminded of those potential costs every single day by German industry. Macron in France is in for a bit of a shock in the coming eight weeks when the EU Ministers, NOT the EU Commissioners, hold talks about what the negotiating position of the EU will be and in those talks it will be Germany that talks loudest along with the seven other net contributors to the EU shambles, the 19 other member states who are beneficiaries of EU largesse will have to realise that from March 2019 onwards the pot they consistently dip into is going to be lighter by 11 billion so the eight net contributors either have to come up with the extra cash or everybody in the club has to take less - that is the reality they face. The sooner they recognise that the better for all.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 21 Oct 17 - 05:32 AM

Steve, we currently have to impose tariffs on nonEU food.
Food will be cheaper for us when we do not, and EU food is more expensive than on the world market. They will not be able to sell their food to anyone else. Losing our market will enrage their farmers.

If EU impose tariffs on our exports to them it will hurt a bit, but the low pound makes our exports more attractive to everyone, and we will not have squandered billions to prop up EU.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 21 Oct 17 - 05:03 AM

Hubris reigns supreme here still, I see. Just one small point: if you really want to see this as two adversaries with horns locked, it's twenty-seven with 450 million versus one with sixty-five million. Not David versus Goliath, either, if you're feeling heroic. More like David versus the Lernaean Hydra, and David's already limping a bit.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: DMcG
Date: 21 Oct 17 - 04:34 AM

It is very hard to get a true picture from anywhere.

Yes, indeed it is hard. Diogenes would have agreed.

So I can only suggest you consider things less as simply true and false, and more in terms of 'what level of confidence do I have that this statement is true'? The picture then is far from simple, as you now need to accept opposing views with different levels of confidence, but I find it a better approach.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 21 Oct 17 - 03:25 AM

It is very hard to get a true picture from anywhere. Is the link accurate or wishful thinking?


https://capx.co/eu-leaders-mustnt-squander-this-brexit-momentum/

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 21 Oct 17 - 03:21 AM

Cloth eared Corbyn rides into Brussels to get negotiations on track.
I can see where shaw gets hid ideas from.

I would say that undermining the official negotiations is probably treason. Time to lock the goon up.


cowboy corbyn rides into town

What a bunch!
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-41688280

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Teribus
Date: 21 Oct 17 - 02:39 AM

"does the Lisbon Treaty say what we should do regarding financial commitments on leaving?"

No it does not, there is no instrument, or article contained in the treaty that can compel any member state to pay anything - the terms under which a member state leaves MUST BE AGREED by the EU and the state that is leaving. There is a stipulated time limit given to reach that agreement which is within 24 months of Article 50 being triggered by the member state - once that time period has elapsed the state is simply no longer a member of the EU. In the case of the UK that date is the 29th March, 2019.

So far it would appear that while the UK's negotiating team has been waiting to discuss and negotiate all aspects of the leaving process, those in charge of negotiations from the EU's side have not. All we have heard out of them have been threats and demands. They have given a figure which they dictate must be met before negotiations on anything else take place. That figure has not been broken down, it has not been explained, it has not been justified. Neither the UK, or it's population, are a country, or a people, that responds well to being dictated to (France and Germany should know that from history - Napoleon once tried to impose a ban on British trade with Europe - it cost him his Empire). Messrs Juncker, Barnier and the rest that comprise the unelected EU Commission have up to now arrogantly tried to run the clock down in order to put pressure on the UK - If they continue to do so, if they refuse to negotiate all aspects of the withdrawal process then they are going to end up with nothing. Should they then attempt to "punish" the UK with tariffs and trade barriers, they will find themselves in breach and in dispute with the WTO on all five guiding rules of the WTO which all member states of the EU agreed to when they joined, as individuals, on 1st January 1995.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 20 Oct 17 - 06:38 PM

Quite so. But does the Lisbon Treaty say what we should do regarding financial commitments on leaving? You just can't accept that we are in unknown territory here, can you? Even if the EU ends up having no legal recourse, there's that bad blood and there's the fact that our economy will be a basket case by 2019 the way things are going. Pound, productivity, growth, all wilting fast. But do feel free to carry on putting on your brave face.

Anyway, that is all hypothetical. May has already made herself a hostage to fortune. We will pay money.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Teribus
Date: 20 Oct 17 - 06:14 PM

What "legal" conundrum?

"There is no precedent for a net contributor leaving the EU without paying their dues."

The EU Treaty of Lisbon outlines the procedure for member states who wish to exercise their sovereign right to leave the EU. It is described in Article 50 of that treaty - oddly enough Shaw it makes no distinction between net contributor states and non-contributing states. It is against WTO rules for the EU to make that distinction.

"It is by no means settled that we can leave without paying and that'll be that."

Neither the EU or the UK have signed any paper that binds them legally to pay compensation - if there is please refer me to it. Any such payment must be arrived at by mutual agreement - now believe it or not Shaw that involves dialogue - it is NOT simply a case of the EU Commission in the shape of Juncker, or Barnier, plucking a figure out of thin air and demanding that the UK pays that. It is NOT for the Prime Ministers, or Finance Ministers, of the other EU member states to closet themselves in some chamber and decide what the UK must pay then simply demand that sum - It is for whoever is negotiating on behalf of the EU AND THE UK to agree what that figure is - Now then Shaw IF the EU want anything then they had better start listening to what the British negotiators are saying is necessary for starting those negotiations relating to payments. Which I suppose that is why the EU rules require that the whole process cannot be split up and sub-divided as they have done with result that talks and progress seems to have stalled.

It is a process of dialogue, it is NOT for the EU Commission to set preconditions. While they may THINK that they can lord it over the entire process, they had best realise without doubt that in the forthcoming negotiations (If they expect the UK to stump up) then they had best start treating the UK with a bit of respect, refrain from talk of "punishment" (Juncker, I believe), and approach these talks as equals. As it is the EU who expects the UK to pay them they should be aware of the "Golden Rule" - It is the UK's GOLD.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 20 Oct 17 - 05:02 PM

Ah, but our collapsed pound and all those tariffs...

As I'm sure you realise, new legal conundrums have to be tested. There is no precedent for a net contributor leaving the EU without paying their dues. You don't have to believe me. You can google this stuff and get the views of people far more expert than you and me. It is by no means settled that we can leave without paying and that'll be that. That's your hubris and brave face showing through. Reality could be different. By the time we leave our economy will be sick, we will not have all these wonderful WTO deals in place and we will look like a very unattractive potential trading partner. And you've said nothing about the bureaucratic nightmare facing our service sector. Go on, look it up. We are going to pay up. Face it.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Teribus
Date: 20 Oct 17 - 04:29 PM

"Whether we have a legal obligation has yet to be clarified. Unknown, untested waters and all that." - Shaw

Only to you Shaw, only to you.

"If we leave with a walk-away no-deal, with EU nations aggrieved over the non-payment of our dues, trading conditions between the EU and UK will be difficult and there will be obstructive behaviour, even sanctions." - Shaw

If we do indeed leave with a walk away no deal - on behaviour up to now the EU nations will indeed have the right to feel aggrieved at the stance and tactics of Messrs Junckers and Barnier. Trading conditions between the UK and every other country in the world INCLUDING those of the EU will be those practiced under the rules established by the WTO (If the EU fail to comply with this they will find themselves under threat of isolation and "even sanctions").

"We walk away without paying. They won't want to trade."

Really? The German automotive industry will be absolutely delighted when you tell them that Shaw, currently the UK represents 20% of their sales. As usual you present your rather shaky opinions as fact, unfortunately for you your assertions defy the logic and reasoning that the EU sell more to us than they buy from us, so if they don't want to trade with us, who do they sell their goods and products to?

"They may be obstructive. That could include sanctions, de facto or formal."

As Keith A has already said, "obstructive" - No change there, what sanctions that would break WTO rules would the WTO allow?

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 20 Oct 17 - 02:26 PM

We walk away without paying. They won't want to trade. They may be obstructive. That could include sanctions, de facto or formal. Do you think that because we're British that we are above such things? You guys really do think that we Brits are the dog's danglies, don't you? Well you have a rude awakening coming up once we leave. Our flagging economy already makes this country nothing special. Just wait 'til brexit comes to see how unspecial we are.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 20 Oct 17 - 01:54 PM

The EU team do not agree that we should be talking about the favourable trade deal the UK wants before the substance of the settlement bill is agreed.

We need to know what we are paying for before agreeing how much to pay for it.

We ARE going to pay money. If we don't, three things will happen. We will get a lousy deal.

Paying more money is what will make it a bad deal.

There will be bad blood with our main trading partner (no-one is queuing up to replace them fast enough to rescue our failing economy once we're out).

No-one is queuing up to replace us as their main outside trading partner.

And we will be chased for payment, possibly through legal process, for years.

Fine. We will only have to pay what we are legally obliged to, eventually.

We are the one causing the trouble.

No. They are moving away from us. They are no longer just a trading block. They want political union and they can have it, but it is not for us.

there will be obstructive behaviour,
No change there then.

even sanctions.

Ha, ha.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 20 Oct 17 - 12:32 PM

Whether we have a legal obligation has yet to be clarified. Unknown, untested waters and all that. If we leave with a walk-away no-deal, with EU nations aggrieved over the non-payment of our dues, trading conditions between the EU and UK will be difficult and there will be obstructive behaviour, even sanctions. Ain't going to happen, is it, Woodcock? (What did they call you at school, by the way? Call me Steve as the civilised members of this forum do and I won't ask again. I could guess...Woodcock...fertile ground there...) You two talk with a mixture of hubris, brave face and totally unfounded optimism. Have you seen the latest stats on our economy? Seen how the pound is floundering again this week? What a great start for our launch into the big, wide world of tariffs on everything...

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Teribus
Date: 20 Oct 17 - 12:09 PM

"we will be chased for payment, possibly through legal process, for years." - Shaw

Wrong - there is no legal obligation for us to pay anything and absolutely no legal means or court in which the EU could present, or pursue their claim. But Shaw, were they to attempt to do so, they would have to both quantify and justify what it was that they are claiming - TRUE??

"We are not suddenly going to stop selling to and buying from the EU when we leave." - Shaw

Well hopefully not Shaw but that seems to depend on the member states of the EU doesn't it? After all we will have a choice that we currently do not have we can go looking elsewhere for the same, or similar goods and produce and as the fifth largest economy on the planet with a population of some 65 million I think that we will be viewed as a reasonably good prospect as long term customers.

"After 2019 we will still be driving around in beamers and quaffing Prosecco and eating lots of EU-produced food." - Shaw

Really Shaw? Your opinion not fact. I have never driven around in a "beamer" and I do not quaff Proseco, so that comes down to customer choice - also have a look at how much of the food in our supermarkets comes from outside the EU:

"Based on the farm-gate value of unprocessed food in 2015, the UK supplied over half (52%) of the food consumed in the UK. The leading foreign suppliers of food consumed in the UK were countries from the EU (29% of the food consumed in the UK) and Africa, Asia, North and South America (all providing a 4% share). Two countries accounted for 69% of UK imports of fresh vegetables. Three countries accounted for 54% of unmilled wheat imports, and four countries accounted for 44% of UK imports of fresh fruit.
It is worth noting that around 160 countries make up a significant portion (about 12%) of our food imports ? making the UK?s tastes truly global and integral to the world economy.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Raggytash
Date: 20 Oct 17 - 10:50 AM

Ah there speaks a true diplomat .........







........ Little Englander style. Next we'll send in the gun boats.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Iains
Date: 20 Oct 17 - 10:47 AM

Just as well we do not have to rely on shaw to lead our negotiating team
for brexit. We would end up in a truly sorry state. He must be following the lead of rollover corbyn. I wonder if the French farmers have revamped their business plans to cope with the funding hole in the CAP after our withdrawal. They will no longer be able to afford the diesel to allow their tractors to clutter up the streets for a protest.
" We are not the ones who get to set the negotiating parameters"
Wrong!!!!!
I rather suspect we set out our stall when we told the rest of the EU we were off. A bill for leaving is the ranting of a petulant child and best ignored. Those missing UK contributions will cause pain from Brussels to Strsabourg and it will only be alleviated when the EU goons start to be sensible.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 20 Oct 17 - 10:03 AM

It takes two to negotiate. Negotiation first of all requires agreeing on the framework. The EU team do not agree that we should be talking about the favourable trade deal the UK wants before the substance of the settlement bill is agreed. If you don't think that's fair, tell us why not. We ARE going to pay money. If we don't, three things will happen. We will get a lousy deal. There will be bad blood with our main trading partner (no-one is queuing up to replace them fast enough to rescue our failing economy once we're out). And we will be chased for payment, possibly through legal process, for years. We will be paying money. The more hubris our clownish negotiators show over this now, the more dirt they'll have to eat later. We are the one causing the trouble. One out of 28. We are not the ones who get to set the negotiating parameters. Unless you're a Blimpish little Englander, that seems to be the way it should be.

Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 20 Oct 17 - 09:50 AM

Read my last sentence.