BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 11:20 AM

Ours was a referendum over a “division” that didn’t need a referendum to fix. There was no overwhelming appetite for the UK to leave the EU. Just 38% of the electorate turning out to vote leave after being bombarded with outright xenophobia and racism for months is testament to that. But the division has been stepped up several pegs since the vote, and in some ways that’s the least of our worries now.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 10:02 AM

From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 11:48 AM
Brexit is either going to happen, or never happen, long before an independent Catalonia becomes an issue for the EU.
Referendums are invariably divisive.

I would prefer the idea that referendums are only held because of an existing division. So the referendums are not, in themselves, divisive. They may get people talking more about the issues, and so highlight the existing divisions, but that is not the same thing.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: bobad
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 09:17 AM

The question was direct, clear and unequivocal.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 08:50 AM

That’s a leading question, I’m afraid.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 07:33 AM

Steve,
What was the question?
"Do you want Catalonia to become an independent state in the form of a republic?"
Who can vote?
Only Catalan residents of voting age, 18 and above, are entitled to participate in the referendum. An estimated 5.3 million of the region's 7.5 million population are eligible to vote.  

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 06:56 AM

They are considered non-voters because they didn’t vote. Hope this helps.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: akenaton
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 06:26 AM

I'm afraid we will never have the means to calibrate those who wilfully don't vote from those who have been unable to vote for myriad reasons, so unfortunately they must all be considered non voters. In a referendum any other method would be nonsensical.

It is not as if there had been insufficient information available on the referendum date, or any other obstruction to voting.

The obstructions started immediately AFTER the vote. :0)

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 05:54 AM

You can work on whatever criteria you decide on. And you haven’t a clue how “wilful” the non-voters were. This isn’t a game.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: akenaton
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 05:45 AM

You can only work on a majority of those interested enough to ACTUALLY vote.....those who wilfully do not don't deserve to be taken into account.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 05:29 AM

Let’s see: suppose the bar was set at 75% and that was the turnout. Let’s say that the required majority was 60% and the result was akenaton’s 61%. That’s still well under half the electorate voting for the change. To ensure a majority of all those entitled to vote, which I would say is the minimum requirement to make an irreversible and highly significant change, a turnout of 75% would require a majority of just under 67% voting for the change. That’s where I would set the bars. In those circumstances, no- one on the losing side would be able to claim no majority/mandate for change. One of the divisive elements would have been removed. That’s a much better shot at real democracy, though I still don’t believe in referendums anyway. Of course, I can see why leavers wouldn’t have liked it.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 05:10 AM

That’s the thing though, Allan. Referendums by their nature are almost certain to be divisive, no matter how you set the thresholds, which is one of several good reasons for not having them. The reason for setting high thresholds for a decision to make a change is that the change is likely to be highly significant and permanent. On the other hand, a decision in favour of the status quo can easily be followed by another referendum. That’s what I mean when I say that referendums are skewed, and that’s why, if you really must have them, a simple 50+ with a low or no minimum turnout requirement is unsatisfactory. It doesn’t matter how often leavers say the opposite: there was nothing like a majority of the electorate voting to leave. I’m stating an obstinate fact, not stating sour grapes. I won’t waste my energy on that but I will do my damnedest to argue, democratically, for a rethink. If you tell me to shut up, stop whingeing and. “accept the will of the people” (unproven in the extreme, whereas a high bar for turnout and majority would have clinched it forever) it’s you being undemocratic and fascistic, not me. A referendum is not the same as a general election. You are voting for significant and potentially irreversible change. That is not what elections are about. It’s invidious to compare the two.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 04:09 AM

https://www.globalresearch.ca/spain-moves-toward-military-rule-in-catalonia/5613147

An interesting perspective. Hopefully it is only somewhat hysterical.
If it is the shape of things to come, then the european dream is about to change.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 03:40 AM

"The decision to hold a referendum is never made by the EU." BUT,
of the 48 referendums held by EU states the subject matter concerned the EU. In the case of Ireland the constitution demands a referendum should changes be required to accommodate EU legislation.

I fail to see why a bar should be imposed. Is it some socialist ploy to
imitate Canute? The existing bar is quite adequate, it is called a majority. It is determined by those that were both eligible and motivated to vote. Strangely enough it is no surprise that "no shows" do not count, neither do ineligible minors. How a majority is determined in the UK referendum is fact-differing opinions have zero substance.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: akenaton
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 03:28 AM

Yes that is quite correct Allan. A referendum must be yes or no. In or out.
I the bar was set at 60% and the out vote got 61%, non democrats like Steve would be saying it still wasn't set high enough.

Where do we draw the line? Both of the last two referendums produced very large turnouts and should be seen as extremely democratic.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Allan Conn
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 02:54 AM

Steve the idea that the bar should be kept high because people then view them as skewed if a small majority vote for change doesn't really satisfy people either though. You just end up making the opposing side feel even more aggrieved. The best example of that was the first Scottish devolution referendum. The Yes side narrowly won the vote but not the referendum itself because the then Labour gvt put the bar higher than 50% of the turnout. It only bred resentment and left half the country feeling the democratic rights of the majority (albeit a small majority) were being ignored by Westminster.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 05:08 PM

What were the terms of the referendum they tried to hold, Keith? What was the question? How was the campaign conducted? How high was the bar set for independence? How was the voting organised? I don't know. Maybe you do.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 05:03 PM

The decision to hold a referendum is never made by the EU.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 02:30 PM

What was wrong with the referendum they tried to have?
Did the feds need to disrupt it?

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 02:29 PM

" Referendums are intended to yield a permanent result, especially if it means a change"

If the EU has it's evil way the referendum will be repeated until the perceived correct response is given. Ask Ireland!

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 01:50 PM

The fundamental difference is that elections results are reversible after no more than five years. Referendums are intended to yield a permanent result, especially if it means a change (which is why they’re skewed and why the bar for change should be set high).

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 01:43 PM

I fail to see how referendums are any more divisive than elections.
Does any party stick to it's manifest when elected. Lying and distortion are the stock in trade of all politicians. Catelonia may or may not become an issue for the EU prior to brexit. The EU was happy to break up Yugoslavia so their hypocrisy concerning Catelonia is quite blatant. If the hamfisted diplomacy of the EU continues I suspect the Basques and a few others will start making waves. The Catelonian referendum could simply have been allowed and then ignored. Magnifying it into a major issue has done nothing to further the cause of european unity.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 11:48 AM

Brexit is either going to happen, or never happen, long before an independent Catalonia becomes an issue for the EU.

Referendums are invariably divisive. Generally, they are highly undemocratic because they ask people to make a simplistic decision on complex issues that we elect and pay politicians to wrestle over. However, in this case I can’t see any other way. But a badly-devised referendum would be worse than useless. Both sides must fully agree the wording of the question and the bar for independence must be set very high to correct for the skewed nature of the issue apropos of the alternative outcomes. Get that right and it’s a good start. Then we have to trust advocates on both sides not to mislead the public. In our referendum the bar was set too low and both sides lied in their teeth to us. If you think that has has anything to do with democracy then I’m not with you.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 10:57 AM

For the EU to give any ground at all to Catelonia would be seen as weakening their bargaining position on Brexit. I do not see how the issues can be separated. As I have asked before: How can creeping regional autonomy be reconciled with the galloping federalism of the EU? The entire edifice is unstable with regional disparities of economy, culture and history. It will need more than the stroke of a pen and a peripatetic Parliament to destroy allegiance to the nation state. It must also be unique in that it cannot initiate legislation, that is left to the EU commission that has such "stalwarts" as Kinnock and Mandelson.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 10:51 AM

Well, if you put Mark Roberts on one side, and Cerys Matthews on the other . . .




Oh, sorry, "Catalonia"

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Charmion
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 10:21 AM

I agree with Steve, much to my surprise on any but a cooking question. In fact, the referendum program as proposed by Steve is almost precisely what has been done twice in Canada and Quebec, complete with the relentless campaigning when the first referendum (1980) failed, thus producing the second referendum (1995), which failed in a squeaker. We also had a national referendum on the so-called Meech Lake proposal to amend the Constitution Act of 1982 in ways that would exempt Quebec from certain elements of Confederation. News flash: that failed too. Quebec is still in Confederation without having formally ratified the Constitution Act, and both provincial and federal separatist parties still exist and have members seated in both the Quebec National Assembly (note name) and the House of Commons, but their influence is waning steadily.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 06:21 AM

Both sides have boxed themselves in. The only solution now, I hate to say, is a referendum. Unlike our disastrous one, the bar must be set high. The referendum would be skewed, just like ours was, because if you don’t get independence this time you can keep campaigning. That’s democracy. But, if you leave, getting back in again is next to impossible, and your terms would be much poorer even if you did manage it. I’m not aware of any poll, or analysis of election voting, that shows anything like a decisive majority to leave Spain. A referendum, with terms for its conduct thrashed out and fully agreed by both sides, not just by Spain, is the only way to go, otherwise this will continue to fester for generations. Talk of EU implications is currently premature. I don’t think there’s a difference in thinking between mainstream Spain and Catalonia on that. There’s always room for negotiation on membership for states that have seceded and until we get near to a decision there isn’t much point trying to predict what would happen in those uncharted waters. The EU would want Catalonia as a member and that would probably happen, current rules be damned.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 04:26 AM

EU has said they will not be given membership.
Likewise Scotland.
It would require negotiations which always take years.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Mrrzy
Date: 11 Oct 17 - 01:57 AM

Next question, will the EU accept them and do they want to belong to the EU anyway? That is, if it's declared no longer an internal Spanish matter.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 06:38 PM

Catalonia signs ‘declaration of independence,’ temporarily suspends it for dialogue with Madrid.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 03:54 PM

No he hasn’t.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: akenaton
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 02:16 PM

Well the Cat president has declared independence, but cleverly batted the ball back onto the Spanish side by proposing "dialogue".
Of course he knows very well the Spanish govt cannot enter into dialogue without undermining their case for unity.

Probably the tanks will roll shortly and what the EU actually is will be more evident than ever.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Charmion
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 10:52 AM

It's a real pity that the Spanish government did not take a page from the book of Pierre Elliot Trudeau and his successors, who successfully defanged the Front de libération du Québec in 1970, and then allowed that energy to flow into conventional politics at both the provincial and federal levels. Separatism is still a thing in Quebec, but far less of a threat than it was even in 1995, when the latest (dare I hope last?) referendum was held. To a large extent, that development is due to the Canadian federal government's restraint in dealing with Quebec, making many concessions on cultural and identity issues while holding the line hard on proposals that would have allowed Quebec to withdraw from structural elements of Confederation.

I have read that the Spanish constitution forbids separatist action at the regional level, and that the Prime Minister took the action he did because the law demanded it. I believe that, with some effort and a hell of a lot more good will, the Spanish federal government could have found a way to conform to the constitution without bringing in the riot police to round up referendum voters.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 08 Oct 17 - 04:35 AM

An interesting perspective. Bliar Blair has also been proposed as a mediator-is this because he made such a stunning success of being a middle east peace envoy?

https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-future-of-the-eu-at-stake-in-catalonia/5611953

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Gutcher
Date: 07 Oct 17 - 02:53 PM

Bonzio
From what appears in the newspapers socialism has nothing to do with the
situation, indeed the socialists are very much against self determination
for the Catalonian people as they fear this would thwart their ambitions
to become the ruling party in Spain.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: vectis
Date: 07 Oct 17 - 03:27 AM

When I spent time in Catalunia in the late 1960s they did not consider that they were part of Spain. They saw themselves as separate and held that they were going to independent as soon as Franco popped his clogs.

They identified as Catalan, not Spanish. They resented the Spaniards bussed in to work the hotels springing up in the region. They considered that Spain was taking unfair advantage of their potential earnings from the tourist trade which was just taking off.

The bombings of the separatists started soon after I stopped going there regularly.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Mr Red
Date: 06 Oct 17 - 05:00 PM

not even the laughing high-enous?

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Mrrzy
Date: 06 Oct 17 - 12:42 PM

Sigh. Nobody got the high-enous reference.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 06 Oct 17 - 12:02 PM

What a difference a day(or two) makes. Bit of a volte-face off the Spanish Government! A very misleading headline after reading it.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4955204/Catalan-police-chief-arrives-court-accused-sedition.html

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Mr Red
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 04:56 PM

the current news I get is that Catalonia does not have tax raising powers - unlike the Basque region that had an armed struggle for many years. Hmmmm...........

Catalonia contributes more per capita than the rest of Spain. I think that is seen as unfair distribution.

The northern part of Spain has more water, the southern part has ideas to use use that water to irrigate the arid parts. I think we are back into unfair distribution. Not to mention localised climate changes (it is what the south want, but at what price to the north?).

Apparently there has been a measure of intransigence from Madrid on the complaints from Barcelona which has driven the relatively moderate political parties to hemorrhage power to the more militant factions.

Does this demonstrate more of the problem?
I once worked with a Catalan lass with a PhD in biotechnology (from UK Uni, first degree in Barcelona)- she was looking for work and we showed her an ad for a translator, expert in biotech and Spanish. She spoke good English, French and a bit of German but as she says "I don't speak Spanish" (ie Castillian). Catalan yes, no Spanish. I wonder - was that Barcelona degree mostly in English, French or Catalan?

As I have said many times - referenda beget referenda. It is the peace dividend. Blame Fakebook. I do.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 04:17 PM

"I blame Brexit for all this mess" Feel free to blame whom you like. In this case you would be wrong. A potted history courtesy of Wiki. below:
"The political movement began in 1922 when Francesc Macià founded Estat Català (Catalan State). In 1931, Estat Català and other parties formed Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (Republican Left of Catalonia; ERC), which won a dramatic victory in the municipal elections of that year. Macià proclaimed a Catalan Republic, but after negotiations with the leaders of the new Spanish Republic, he instead accepted autonomy within the Spanish state. In the Spanish Civil War, General Francisco Franco abolished Catalan autonomy in 1938. Following Franco's death in 1975, Catalan political parties concentrated on autonomy rather than independence.The modern independence movement began when the 2006 Statute of Autonomy, which had been agreed with the Spanish government and passed by a referendum in Catalonia, was challenged in the Spanish High Court of Justice, which ruled that some of the articles were unconstitutional, or were to be interpreted restrictively. Popular protest against the decision quickly turned into demands for independence.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 04:01 PM

"I blame Brexit for all this mess" - So a people's right of self-determination does not feature high on your list of human rights then Tradsinger?

Human rights has nothing to do with it. It is little more than a socialist led mob.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Donuel
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 09:51 AM

Separation was a dream of Pablo Cassals, which is good enough for me.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Mrrzy
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 09:47 AM

The summer I lived there (1988), the Catalan referred to themselves as Catalan, and corrected you if you called them Spanish. They referred to the rest of Spain as Spain, as if where they were wasn't Spain. And they practically *spat* upon the Spanish language. That fact was crucial to my doctoral research so I looked into it... Franco has a lot to answer for.
So they have always *been* culturally separate, like the Basque in both France and Spain.
That said, I'm agin national boundaries in general, so I am agin increasing the number of them.
Also, I don't know whether states can secede from that union legally or not. Spain is a recent pastiche of a lot of smaller cultures, like Andalusia and all.
But even if they can't, riot police throwing old ladies down stairs (I conflate, I know) is not the answer to an illegal vote. Voting is peaceful behavior and should not be answered with violence. Barricades? Disposing of ballot boxes? There is a lot they could have done without violence to the individuals.
And *having* committed that high-enous act, now, even the Catalan who weren't for separation are more against Spain now than they were, which is not helpful for unity either.
And if you get the high-enous reference, bully for you.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 06:10 AM

The EU has not, in all it's years of existence, publicly displayed a road map of where and what it wants to be. There are just vague hints thrown out now and again - a pan european defence force, or a federal states of europe. Many are unhappy that the game plan is being hidden from the populace. They are also unhappy that un-elected bureaucrats
seem to have hijacked powers to themselves contained within a structure that allows no questions, accountability, or democracy.
Little wonder that regions with a strong identity and uniqueness wish to ensure their continuation. The present structures of the EU are hellbent on ironing out discrete political entities. Sadly ironing out the far more important regional economic disparities seems a task too far for them. They just threw Greece and Cyprus under the bus, but they cannot overlook the high rates of youth unemployment in southern europe for ever.

The British Miners Strike under The great Maggie has been mentioned ad nauseum in recent threads. Just imagine had those miners been facing a jackbooted, paramilitary, pan european gendarmerie. It would not have been just blood in the streets but corpses from a massacre. No Eu condemnation of the behaviour of Spain, quite the reverse. This is quite a contrast to the opinions of the International Observers watching the electoral process.
Their utter condemnation of the events reads more like the description of events in some backwater third world dorp, than proceedings in an advanced western country.
We have seen the future and it is not orange-it is red. I foresee many other independence movements brought to fruition by the tacit pat on the back given to Spain by the unaccountable EU monolith. I wish them all every success.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Teribus
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 05:57 AM

"EU countries do not endure "rule from Brussels." EU countries govern themselves." Chirrups Shaw.

Tell that to the Irish, the Greeks, the Cypriots, the Spanish, the Portuguese.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Teribus
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 05:55 AM

Date of Shaw's FT article - 26th May 2016.

Date of the EU Referendum - 23rd June 2016.

Prior to that date every political party in the UK with the exception of UKIP was campaigning as hard as it could to achieve a Remain result. Loads of "doom'n'gloom" from establishment press and the Bank of England - all proved groundless.

Odd that the piece only covered the period BEFORE Maastricht.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Raggytash
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 05:33 AM

Bugger !

There you don't go !!

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Raggytash
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 05:32 AM

A Brexit Myth

There you go!

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 05:23 AM

EU countries do not endure "rule from Brussels." EU countries govern themselves. Here's an an article from the Financial Times that comprehensively explodes the myth that Teribus is trying to perpetuate. You'll have to google it yourself I'm afraid: "A Brexit myth of Brussels (mis)rule."

Franco still casts a long shadow in Spain. Catalonia, always a region that regarded itself as very distinct in terms of culture and language, was treated very brutally by him. The Spanish constitution states that Catalonia is a nationality. There is considerable resentment when Madrid is perceived as intruding into Catalan affairs. The clumsy interventions last week are only the latest manifestation of that, though a very serious one.

Self-determination is a grand thing but getting it right is a minefield. Most recent polls show only a slim majority in favour of independence, and not a majority of all the electorate. You could easily end up with a brexit-with-balls mess in which a third of the electorate drag Catalonia away from Spain. I wonder whose "rights" we'd be talking about then.

Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Teribus
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 03:33 AM

"I blame Brexit for all this mess" - So a people's right of self-determination does not feature high on your list of human rights then Tradsinger?