BS: Preventive war?

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Greg F.
Date: 01 Dec 17 - 10:02 AM

By the way, BB- those songs are all in the database. - In which case, one is supposed to simply post a link if I recall correctly....

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 01 Dec 17 - 10:02 AM

There's an easy way to show the analysis is flawed - because you buy into that debate as if it is valid, as if those are the only positions available. Those of us who have taken your measure in other debates know where this one is starting from.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Jeri
Date: 01 Dec 17 - 10:02 AM

...and THIS is why we can't have nice things.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Greg F.
Date: 01 Dec 17 - 09:58 AM

So PLEASE show me where the analysis is flawed,

You've been shown at least three times, BB, and it hasn't affected you spew one iota.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 01 Dec 17 - 09:55 AM

And to continue ( as suggested )

When you attend a funeral,
It is sad to think that sooner or
Later those you love will do the same for you.
And you may have thought it tragic,
Not to mention other adjec-
Tives, to think of all the weeping they will do.
But don't you worry.
No more ashes, no more sackcloth.
And an armband made of black cloth
Will some day never more adorn a sleeve.
For if the bomb that drops on you
Gets your friends and neighbors too,
There'll be nobody left behind to grieve.

And we will all go together when we go.
What a comforting fact that is to know.
Universal bereavement,
An inspiring achievement,
Yes, we all will go together when we go.

We will all go together when we go.
All suffuse with an incandescent glow.
No one will have the endurance
To collect on his insurance,
Lloyd's of london will be loaded when they go.

Oh we will all fry together when we fry.
We'll be french fried potatoes by and by.
There will be no more misery
When the world is our rotisserie,
Yes, we will all fry together when we fry.

Down by the old maelstrom,
There'll be a storm before the calm.

And we will all bake together when we bake.
There'll be nobody present at the wake.
With complete participation
In that grand incineration,
Nearly three billion hunks of well-done steak.

Oh we will all char together when we char.
And let there be no moaning of the bar.
Just sing out a te deum
When you see that I. C. B. M.,
And the party will be "come as you are."

Oh we will all burn together when we burn.
There'll be no need to stand and wait your turn.
When it's time for the fallout
And saint peter calls us all out,
We'll just drop our agendas and adjourn.

You will all go directly to your respective valhallas.
Go directly, do not pass go, do not collect two hundred dolla's.

And we will all go together when we go.
Ev'ry hottenhot and ev'ry eskimo.
When the air becomes uranious,
And we will all go simultaneous.
Yes we all will go together
When we all go together,
Yes we all will go together when we go.







And most here stick their heads ...in the sand, and say that war is a bad thing, so it won't happen.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 01 Dec 17 - 09:52 AM

If you deliberately or intentionally ignore reasonable analysis because you don't like the result, YOU are not helping.

So PLEASE show me where the analysis is flawed, instead of saying you don't like the result.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Donuel
Date: 01 Dec 17 - 09:49 AM

Do we feel better now? I believe there plenty of agreement here, excluding unreasonable remarks.

The trial balloon for first strike public acceptance has been shot down long time ago. Bush went ahead with his shock and awe and the results were disastrous in the long run.
The tactic for tyrants is to make people afraid, very afraid.
Afraid to speak, afraid to resist etc. .

I refuse Trump's intended fear reactions by tweets and remarks.
It would be wise to try and do the same.

If you deliberately or intentionally promote fear, you are not helping.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 01 Dec 17 - 09:33 AM

Put your head back up your ass, GregtrF.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 01 Dec 17 - 09:32 AM

Bill D,
"An opinion is not a "fact", and 'valid' refers to syllogistic logic."

I agree. so YOUR "STARTING a war... for ANY reason... would be stupid. The world's basic reaction would be "You had no proof 'they' were going to shoot first." is NOT a fact, and cannot be referred to as "valid"

In case you did not read the OP or many of my other posts, I AGREE WITH YOU.

But I cannot see a flaw in the reasoning presented in the analysis, and am asking id others here might. Other than the INVALID "I don't like it so it must be false" argument, no-one has brought up anything to counter the logic that a preventive war would kill less civilians than the accidental war that is likely to happen.

Sort of like Chamberlain having peace in his time- No war, just enabled Hitler to start one that killed 27 million.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Greg F.
Date: 01 Dec 17 - 09:07 AM

G'way, Bruce, ya bother me.

(With apologies to W.C. Fields)

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Donuel
Date: 01 Dec 17 - 08:01 AM

We all seem to have knowing the Tom Leher songs by heart in common.

The truth in them is still in our core.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 01 Dec 17 - 07:39 AM

"Reaction to an accidental incident does however make matters more sketchy. "





AND THE ANALYSIS IS ABOUT THE ACCIDENTAL LAUNCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




Are there NO sane people here to tell me where that analysis is flawed, beyond saying something most here do not wish to hear???????

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 01 Dec 17 - 07:36 AM

Acme,

" Many of the people who might have had an opinion on this didn't join in because they knew you'd be as rude as you have proven to be here. Don't complain about others when you set the tone. "


So calling something bullshit is not rude, but asking for sane comments is?

WHERE AM I RUDE????

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 01 Dec 17 - 07:34 AM

"STARTING a war... for ANY reason... would be stupid. The world's basic reaction would be "You had no proof 'they' were going to shoot first." "


"One can agree with it or not, but it is merely a subjective hypothesis based on supposed relevance to other analyses of past conflicts in other parts of the world."




I agree that YOUR hypothesis is as subjective as mine. Perhaps we can deal with the analysis, rather than your desires to prove your own opinions?

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Donuel
Date: 01 Dec 17 - 07:01 AM

No Acme, the argument is not nonsense, it is Absurd Analysis Nonsense.
This is not a modeled math backed analysis. Its like the odds sheet for tomorrow's horse race.

It is as valid as my opinion that there is a race between war and impeachment.

There are ways to stymie Trump as simple as supplying him with counterfeit biscuits. No biscuit - no launch and a million other means we don't know about. Reaction to an accidental incident does however make matters more sketchy.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 01 Dec 17 - 05:50 AM

HAVEN'T WE BEEN HERE BEFORE?
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 10:12 PM

I agree with Bill. The argument is nonsense, it isn't an either/or proposition. It's a headfuck and you fell for it. Many of the people who might have had an opinion on this didn't join in because they knew you'd be as rude as you have proven to be here. Don't complain about others when you set the tone.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Greg F.
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 09:24 PM

Thank you, Bill.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Bill D
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 08:48 PM

"..... the facts and analysis presented seem valid. "

An opinion is not a "fact", and 'valid' refers to syllogistic logic. So the article presents neither fact NOR logic. One can agree with it or not, but it is merely a subjective hypothesis based on supposed relevance to other analyses of past conflicts in other parts of the world.

STARTING a war... for ANY reason... would be stupid. The world's basic reaction would be "You had no proof 'they' were going to shoot first."

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 08:39 PM

Sorry, Iains.

Depleted uranium is lower radiation than natural uranium. It has the u235 removed ( at least partially)

So deleted uranium cannot be used for bombs, is safer to sit on, and has the same toxicity as natural uranium.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: bobad
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 07:34 PM

And now for a musical interlude: The Kim Jong Un Song

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 07:04 PM

Well said, Greg.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: robomatic
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 06:52 PM

BB: I know the Tom Lehrer songs by heart, still sing them (because they're still topical). You left out:

We will all go together when we go.

And another favorite of mine:

Randy Newman's Political Science. I used to sing that to international transfer students to welcome them to America.

I was just saying here to my flo lunatics hanging out at Starbucks that President Tweet has probably boosted Kim Jong Un's ego by referring to him so much and calling him 'Rocketman'. I won't take bets against him owning the album. I'll bet he has it on his mp3 player when he feeds his outdated relatives to his dogs.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Greg F.
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 06:35 PM

Its always a heartwarming thing to see two toddlers playing happily together. You go, guys!

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Iains
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 06:34 PM

BB That would rather depend upon whether you were using it for making bombs, ingesting it, or sitting on it to chew your sandwiches.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 05:58 PM

Depleted uranium is less dangerous than natural uranium.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Iains
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 04:44 PM

The discussion so far has been restricted to nuclear bombs. Assuming that in the event of a war the situation escalates to involve troops then depleted uranium has to be factored in. In addition critical infrastructure could get hit. For example the Product Finishing and Storage Facility at the Sellafield nuclear plant has enough plutonium for about 20,000 nuclear bombs. It is the world’s largest stockpile of civilian plutonium — one of the most toxic substances on the planet.

http://newsweekme.com/nuclear-war-without-war/

I wonder whose story can be believed for the links below?
https://www.globalresearch.ca/uk-radiation-jump-blamed-on-iraq-shells/2003
http://www.unknowncountry.com/news/dangerous-du-iraq-monitored-uk-halliburton
Interesting the monitoring at Aldermaston was taken over by Halliburton.

There seems to be a lot of secrecy surrounding the toxicity of ionising radiation and I suspect a lot of denial concerning the genetic impact of nano sized particles of depleted uranium. Kosovo and Iraq I am sure have untold stories.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Iains
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 03:40 PM

From 1945 to 1963 the U.S.A. conducted an extensive campaign of atmospheric nuclear tests, grouped into roughly 20 test "series." After 1963 when the Limited Test Ban Treaty was signed testing for the U.S., Soviet Union, and Great Britain moved underground. France continued atmospheric testing until 1974 and China did so until 1980.

http://www.abomb1.org/atmosphr/

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 03:14 PM

North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho said Kim Jong Un would "probably" respond with "the strongest hydrogen bomb test over the Pacific Ocean."

Later in October, a senior North Korean official told CNN's Will Ripley to take the threat "literally," and hinted it may follow the completion of an ICBM, which North Korea declared on Wednesday.
ICBM tests are safe compared to nuclear detonations

North Korea's latest ICBM test drew condemnation from world leaders, and brought the US and North Korea "closer to war," according to the US's Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, but did virtually zero damage.

The missile launched, crested at 2,800 feet, and splashed down into the Sea of Japan.

If North Korea carries out its threat to detonate a nuclear device over the Pacific, it could impact millions of lives.

"If North Korea does do an atmospheric test, it really does change the game," Jenny Town, a managing editor at 38 North, previously told Business Insider. "The amount of contamination it would cause both in the atmosphere and the ocean is something that will last for years."

North Korea essentially nuking the ocean would have far-reaching impacts and draw international condemnation. With the amount of traffic at sea and number of people who rely on the ocean for food and their livelihoods, it's likely the test would kill people directly or indirectly.

Additionally, atmospheric detonations of nuclear weapons carry the risk of electromagnetic pulses, which could shut down electrical grids and cripple infrastructure.

http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-icbm-test-and-atmospheric-test-2017-11

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 02:30 PM

"Hiroshima" by John Hersey might also be useful.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 01:47 PM

Required ready for those who think we can just hope that no nuclear war happens.


"Level 7" by Mordecai Roshwald

"On the Beach" by Nevil Shute

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 01:27 PM

https://americansongwriter.com/2013/05/read-bob-dylans-go-away-you-bomb-lyrics/

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 01:21 PM

When They Drop The Atomic Bomb: Jackie Doll and his Pickled Peppers [1951]

In one of the most vicious Bomb records released, the singer gleefully anticipates the use of atomic weapons on the 'Commies' to quickly end the Korean War. In stark contrast to the virulent and simplistic lyrics is playful country instrumentation that would be right at home at a barn dance.

There were other songs that championed General MacArthur's Korean command such as Roy Acuff's Doug MacArthur (1951), but none quite as definitively as Mr. Doll and his Pickled Peppers.

Very little is known about Jackie Doll or his band aside from the fact that Doll had two recording sessions with Mercury in 1951 and released a total of six sides.

LYRICS/TRANSCRIPTION:
When They Drop The Atomic Bomb: Jackie Doll and his Pickled Peppers [1951]

There will soon be an end to this cold and wicked war
When those hard headed Communists get what they're lookin' for
Only one thing that will stop them and their atrocious bunch
If General MacArthur drops an atomic bomb

Now over in Korea our boys have fought and fell
But they died just like heroes amid the many shot and killed
They had their hands tied behind them and were murdered by the score
By those dirty minded Communists who started this sad war

There'll be fire, dust and metal flying all around
And the radioactivity will burn them to the ground
If there's any Commies left they'll be all on the run
If General MacArthur drops an atomic bomb

Old hard headed Joe will be feelin' mighty blue
When he finds out he's bitten off more than he can chew
For his aggression will be ended and the job will be well done
If General MacArthur drops an atomic bomb

Old MacArthur has the power to stop those murderin' thieves
And he’ll make them sorry for their underhanded schemes
Just leave it to the general for he really has the nerve
To give no good Communists just what they deserve

There'll be fire, dust and metal flying all around
And the radioactivity will burn their playhouse down
If there's any Commies left they'll be all on the run
If General MacArthur drops an atomic bomb

Jackie Doll and his Pickled Peppers [1951]
When They Drop The Atomic Bomb
(Howard)
Mercury 6322

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 01:20 PM

"Atomic Bombs" Lyrics

Kix

My arms around you
Ya better keep your head low
All dressed up
No place to go
Make love to you all night long
Listen to atomic bombs

Hear the people scratch
On the shelter door
Leave us alone
Nobody lives here no more
Make love to you all night long
Listen to atomic bombs

Safe and sound you're next to me
Close the door on World War Three
Oh just kick your shoes off, sing a song
Listen to atomic bombs

I've been waiting here
Through all your fears
Close your eyes and look away
Hear the bombers blast
Your times come at last
So pray if you stay

Kick your shoes off sing a song
Listen to atomic bombs
Make love to you all night long
Listen to atomic bombs

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 01:17 PM

Muddy Waters – Atomic Bomb Blues lyrics


It was early one morning, when all the good work was done
It was early one morning, when all the good work was done
And that big bird was loaded, with that awful atomic bomb

Wrote my baby, I was behind the risin' sun
Wrote my baby, I was behind the risin' sun
I told her, don't be uneasy, because I'm behind the
Atomic bomb

Nation after nation, was near and far away
Nation after nation, was near and far away
Well, they soon got the news, and there where they would
Stay

Over in east Japan, you know, they let down and cried
Over in east Japan, you know, they let down and cried
And poor Tojo, had to find a place to hide

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 01:15 PM

Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran
Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb,
Bomb Iran
Let's take a stand
Bomb Iran
Our country's got a feelin'
Really hit the ceilin', bomb Iran
Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran

Went to a mosque, gonna throw some rocks
Tell the Ayatollah, "Gonna put you in a box!"
Bomb Iran. Bomb, bomb, bomb,
Bomb Iran
Our country's got a feelin'
Really hit the ceilin', bomb Iran
Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran

Ol' Uncle Sam's gettin' pretty hot
Time to turn Iran into a parking lot
Bomb Iran. Bomb, bomb, bomb,
Bomb Iran
Our country's got a feelin'
Really hit the ceilin', bomb Iran
Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran

Call the volunteers; call the bombadiers;
Call the financiers; better get their ass in gear
Bomb Iran. Bomb, bomb, bomb,
Bomb Iran
Our country's got a feelin'
Really hit the ceilin', bomb Iran
Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran
(Let's nuke 'em! Whoo!)

Call on our allies to cut off their supplies
Get our hands untied, and bring em' back alive
Bomb Iran. Bomb, bomb, bomb,
Bomb Iran
Our country's got a feelin'
Really hit the ceilin', bomb Iran
Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran

Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran
Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb,
Bomb Iran
Let's take a stand
Bomb Iran
Our people you been stealin'
Now it's time for "keelin", bomb Iran
Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Greg F.
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 01:11 PM

You gonna credit that to Tom Leher, BB- or pretend that you wrote it yourself?

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 01:11 PM

First we got the bomb, and that was good,
'Cause we love peace and motherhood.
Then Russia got the bomb, but that's okay,
'Cause the balance of power's maintained that way.
Who's next?

France got the bomb, but don't you grieve,
'Cause they're on our side (I believe).
China got the bomb, but have no fears,
They can't wipe us out for at least five years.
Who's next?

Then Indonesia claimed that they
Were gonna get one any day.
South Africa wants two, that's right:
One for the black and one for the white.
Who's next?

Egypt's gonna get one too,
Just to use on you know who.
So Israel's getting tense.
Wants one in self defense.
"The Lord's our shepherd," says the psalm,
But just in case, we better get a bomb.
Who's next?

Luxembourg is next to go,
And (who knows?) maybe Monaco.
We'll try to stay serene and calm
When Alabama gets the bomb.
Who's next?
Who's next?
Who's next?
Who's next?

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 01:04 PM

"it's been a good year for the war buffs and a number of lps and television specials have come out capitalizing on all this "nostalgia" with particular emphasis on the songs of
Various wars. I feel that if any songs are going to come out of world war iii we'd better start writing them now. I have one here. you might call it a bit of pre-nostalgia. this is the song that
Of the boys sang as they went bravely of to world war iii.

So long, mom,
I'm off to drop the bomb,
So don't wait up for me.
But while you swelter
Down there in your shelter,
You can see me
On your tv.

While we're attacking frontally,
Watch brinkally and huntally,
Describing contrapuntally
The cities we have lost.
No need for you to miss a minute
Of the agonizing holocaust. (yeah!)

Little johnny jones he was a u.s. pilot,
And no shrinking vi'let was he.
He was mighty proud when world war three was declared,
He wasn't scared,
No siree!

And this is what he said on
His way to armageddon:

So long, mom,
I'm off to drop the bomb,
So don't wait up for me.
But though I may roam,
I'll come back to my home,
Although it may be
A pile of debris.

Remember, mommy,
I'm off to get a commie,
So send me a salami,
And try to smile somehow.
I'll look for you when the war is over,
An hour and a half from now!"

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: robomatic
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 12:52 PM

According to the New York Times, which is not a three word swear except on AM radio here in the States, the premise of Mr. James' article is outdated. N. Korea IS a nuclear state. China will not change that. It's sort of an extension of my two posts above.

What that means to me is that the Folks Who Know have been in touch with the Folks who Write for the NYT. The points made are that no strike from forces against NK will wipe out their nuclear arms because those are mobile. What is implied is that there are more weapons prepared and ready to go than are revealed through their tests.

So the answer to my question above: "We really have to
think of millions of deaths? Over these clowns?"
is YES.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 12:34 PM

oil can

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: robomatic
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 12:30 PM

Robo wept

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 11:27 AM

Raedwulf,

You state:
"I've just accused you of cherry-picking (I'm sure you'll be unhappy with that & deny it, but this isn't the first time that's cropped up is it? So why does it keep happening? Cos we're all stupid, or cos you do actually do it?)."

So all the accusations of Clinton being behind murder and raping so many women is proven because it keeps being stated and restated, according to your "logic"?

And OBVIOUSLY Climate change is a hoax, since it has been repeatedly claimed that it is false?



So maybe you all ARE stupid.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 11:21 AM

Oops. Looks like it would be nuclear...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cia-reportedly-admits-north-korean-145305473.html


Too late.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 09:57 AM

Mudelf? previous GregF post is as bad or worse than the GregtrF that you delete each time I post it.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Greg F.
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 09:55 AM

JFK was an idiot who nearly started WWIII, and who probably killed Marilyn Monroe after getting her pregnant.

Good old BullshitBruce retailing garbage like his idol tRUMP. Sad.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 09:28 AM

Iains,

While I agree with your comments and fear the unintended consequences, they do NOT address the analysis- the unintended consequence of a preventive war NOW would compare in what way to an accidental war 2-30 years in the future? Those are the points of analysis that would be needed.

I think that any use of nuclear weapons is bad- but a preventive war AT THIS TIME would only be nuclear if the US decided ( since so many have stated that NKorea does not have weaponized warheads). Thus a conventional war NOW would ( according to the analysis , which I am looking to prove WRONG) prevent a nuclear war later that would result in much higher civilian casualties.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 09:20 AM

Sorry, Bobad- while you have made valid comments on several posts here, you have not addressed the premise or shown any errors in the analysis ( or proof of it, which I hope against, but fear from the attacks on everything but the analysis.)

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 09:16 AM

Raedwulf,

"FFS, Bruce, the crucial one didn't go off, did it? The one above all others that required HUMAN intervention. What you have done repeatedly, and as per fucking usual, is evade & ignore anything you can't actually bloody well answer. YOU said (and I quote) "There have been at least three known US crashes with live warheads". I challenged you to give details, and all you do is weasel."

In the military world, a live warhead is one cAPABLE of going off, not just one that explodes.




"What dates, what planes, what weapons, what happened? Until you give an answer to that, anything you say is worthless."

See Iains Date: 29 Nov 17 - 05:05 PM
I believe there was one other case, with a warhead dropped due to bad weathwr, but the warhead was NOT determined to have been armed- the paperwork was incomplete, and the bomb was never located.




"What dates, what planes, what weapons, what happened? Not forgetting what percentages? Who used them? Where were they used? When were they used? Apart from the fact that Dead Kennedy was an idiot i.e. was a politician (sorry, did I just offend you? Hard luck) whatever his judgement was then is hardly relevant to a scenario 50+ years later."

JFK was an idiot who nearly started WWIII, and who probably killed Marilyn Monroe after getting her pregnant.




"IF the analysis is correct... As yet unproven... But you will, apparently, happily go to war on the basis of an unproven, highly dodgy article written by an academic on topics outside of his qualifications. "

I would NOT go to war, but if the opposing point cannot be argued from a factual basis, the US might well do so. WHY ARE YOU BLAMING ME FOR WANTING TO KNOW WHAT THE FLAWS ( that I HOPE are in the analysis) ARE????





"Frankly I'm getting sick of both you & Don. I've asked both of you a direct question. Try answering. You're a pair of weasels (which is doing a disservice to weasels, if I'm honest). You're a pair of cowards. When you're challenged directly, you'd rather run away. Bad, poor, deliberately dishonest debaters, the pair of you."


YOU have not demonstrated that you can even read the opening post. I stated:

----------------------------------------------------------------------
I would like to see some sane comments about the following article

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2017/11/29/deterring_north_korea_a_reckless_gamble_we_cannot_afford__112695.html

by Kevin R. James, a Research Fellow in the Systemic Risk Centre at the London School of Economics

PLEASE READ BEFORE MAKING COMMENTS!!!

The premise presented is as follows:

"Choosing to deter North Korea is to engage in a gamble: you avoid the costs of a preventive war today when North Korea is relatively weak, but you run the risk of an accidental nuclear war later when North Korea is vastly more powerful. Using plausible estimates of the probability of accidental nuclear war derived from the U.S.-Soviet experience during the Cold War, I find that gambling on deterrence will lead to 7.5 million U.S.-South Korean-Japanese deaths on average (under optimistic assumptions) while a preventive war now will lead to 1.4 million deaths (under pessimistic assumptions). So, not only is deterrence a gamble, it is a reckless and foolish one. Preventive war is the wise and prudent response to North Korea's nuclear threat."

I do NOT like the conclusion, but the facts and analysis presented seem valid.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

DEBATE all you want about whether preventive war is a good idea or not, but I am asking if sane people can see any flaw in the analysis.
You have brought up valid questions as to the assumptions, but unless YOU support a better set that is more in accord with the past events that he uses, you have not advanced a negation of the premise.

But thank you for at least being the most reasonable person ( other than Rap) to reply here.

Subject: RE: BS: Preventive war?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 30 Nov 17 - 04:01 AM

"And the one dodgy leader I was referring to IS Trump."
And the four states I referred to are all nuclear facilitated and capable of using those weapons if they wish
If you are going to respond in the ill-mannered way you did, kindly read the implications of what I am saying
Descussing something like Preventative wat=r in those circumstances is both stupid and a barrier to getting rid of the whole ******* lot
While people thing they can get away with going to war in circumstances like these, this shit will hang over the heads of future generations until there are no more heads for them to handg over
What a mindless discussion!
JIm Carroll