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BS: bubbles

Mr Red 07 Jan 18 - 06:58 AM
Stanron 07 Jan 18 - 09:18 AM
punkfolkrocker 07 Jan 18 - 09:32 AM
Donuel 07 Jan 18 - 12:31 PM
Steve Shaw 07 Jan 18 - 01:34 PM
Mr Red 08 Jan 18 - 07:25 PM
Donuel 08 Jan 18 - 07:46 PM
Nigel Parsons 09 Jan 18 - 04:29 AM
BobL 10 Jan 18 - 04:56 AM
Nigel Parsons 10 Jan 18 - 05:46 AM
Stanron 10 Jan 18 - 07:05 AM
Mr Red 10 Jan 18 - 11:49 AM
Mr Red 11 Jan 18 - 05:01 AM
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Subject: BS: bubbles
From: Mr Red
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 06:58 AM

I predict that we are due another financial fiasco.

I can't be wrong on that.

But I can't tell you when precisely, otherwise I wouldn't tell you, I would bet on it.

But we have about a 5 year window. My reasoning:

There are dips every 15 years or so. World wars (eg) etc can alter the timing, but it is about one generation. The last one was arguably 17 years gap. Because that is the generation (by and large) that didn't understand the privation and causes. AND anyway know better than their parents (who know nuttin'!)
But the internet and pace if innovation is quickening. And there is Trump, and there is Brexit and Syria and, poverty gap and, and ........... Game changers, and change cost money.

All in all I am being wise before the event this time round, even though I knew something was up in 2007 when I heard of 120% mortgages and housing being 5 times a man's salary.

Prove me wrong on the causes, but time will tell, on time.


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Subject: RE: BS: bubbles
From: Stanron
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 09:18 AM

I'm not convinced that recessions alone are cyclic. I recon that big crashes are the result of burst bubbles. What makes a bubble? There has to be growth but growth alone won't lead to a crash. Growth leads to surplus and surplus leads to wealth, slowly is probably the most sustainable.

A bubble is super fast growth based on giving value to something that is not actually valuable, and in cases I can think of, bubbles are exacerbated by financial leverage.

In the Wall street crash it was stocks and shares that were overpriced and this overpricing gave the apparency of easy profits. Profits were also made by brokers selling stocks so it was in their interest to make buying easier. Loans to buy stocks and shares were given using expected profits as 'collateral' and you had a bubble until it burst.

In the 2008 crash it was sub prime mortgages that were sold as assets. I seem to recall an earlier crash was caused by the overvaluing of tulip bulbs.

So, is there an overvalued product out there and is there evidence of leverage?


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Subject: RE: BS: bubbles
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 09:32 AM

bitcoins = shitcoins

but at least shit has substance...

fartcoins then...


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Subject: RE: BS: bubbles
From: Donuel
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 12:31 PM

HA HA


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Subject: RE: BS: bubbles
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 07 Jan 18 - 01:34 PM

The 2008 crash was the upshot of years of irresponsible lending by unregulated and unwatched banks, leading to unsustainable levels of personal debt. The same situation is currently afoot. You couldn't make it up. Add the utter disaster of brexit to the mix...


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Subject: RE: BS: bubbles
From: Mr Red
Date: 08 Jan 18 - 07:25 PM

but growth alone won't lead to a crash

True, but hubris does. The Smart money is going to Bitcoins, a bit (to coin a phrase) like it was going into vintage cars in 2006/7. The wide boys had done with property so looked for other things that had worth but not so much price, yet. Then the cars overheated and they moved on to something else, leaving the schmucks to realise there were hidden toxic debts and cars that were basically just er um cars with a bit of history. Rarity, of itself is meaningless, but desirability has a price, a value but little else unless someone else values it. And that is ephemeral.

Maybe the smart money has moved on from Bitcoins and it is the herd that desperately wants its value to be true. There are pundits prepared to publish at length on the volatility of Bitcoin (et al) and its variability. What can you buy with Bitcoin? A criminal's charter, for certain.

Bubbles are cyclic. Like bubbles they appear over there, not where they appeared last time. Some bigger than others. Predicting where and when is the smokescreen, and only for the lucky & the brave (who ain't gonna share their wisdom).

Let me see. In no particular sequence or timing: South Sea, Scotland's American Colonies, the Wall Street Crash, DotCom, Black Wednesday/early 1990s, 2008.

The cycles are about self-regulation if the feedback is in place or forced regulation when it is not. It is caused by inevitable latency of either. With herding actors in the system, and a lot of greed, it is an inevitable feature.

I don't offer solutions, or work-arounds. Just an observation, and I do predict deja vu.


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Subject: RE: BS: bubbles
From: Donuel
Date: 08 Jan 18 - 07:46 PM

Due to investments and futures positions there are currency wars going on. Buy low sell high and don't cry.


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Subject: RE: BS: bubbles
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 09 Jan 18 - 04:29 AM

I saw the thread title and thought it might be about the phenomenon shown on some UK news programmes about the weather in US, of forming soap bubbles which immediately take on frost patters at low temperatures: I searched it out here: Sputnik News
Amazing to watch.

Cheers
Nigel


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Subject: RE: BS: bubbles
From: BobL
Date: 10 Jan 18 - 04:56 AM

Interesting that the ice crystals form 4-pointed star shapes, whereas snowflakes, as we all know, are hexagonal.


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Subject: RE: BS: bubbles
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 10 Jan 18 - 05:46 AM

It might be because they are on a spherical surface.
Euclid's ideas on plane geometry do not apply.


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Subject: RE: BS: bubbles
From: Stanron
Date: 10 Jan 18 - 07:05 AM

I remember from a recent repeat of QI that snowflakes are not always hexagonal. It's just that photographers 'focus' on the hexagonal ones.


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Subject: RE: BS: bubbles
From: Mr Red
Date: 10 Jan 18 - 11:49 AM

It's just that photographers 'focus' on the hexagonal ones

That is the current accepted wisdom.

As for 4 or 6 pointed crystals. That may depend in the thickness of the water, and if you saw enough of the snowflake bubbles you would see fern like structures. I would add-in the effects of ambient and water temperatures, and the concentration of the soap (which may be nucleating the crystals anyway) and talking of nucleation sites - what shape are the nuclei? What are the dissolved salts?
ie Sodium Chloride, Chlorine and Sodium Fluoride crystals look to be predominantly square. Chlorine, and Fluorine are very often in tap water.


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Subject: RE: BS: bubbles
From: Mr Red
Date: 11 Jan 18 - 05:01 AM

And, significantly, even frozen bubbles burst. It's the nature of bubbles!

(To pull the analogy together).


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