BS: If Russia didn't do it..?

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Raedwulf
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 06:45 AM

Steve - deflectionary, diversionary. I'm not entirely sure what post Don is responding to, but I otherwise have to side with him. Your attempt at a parallel is entirely false. There is neither court nor judge in this case (and I would argue that the evidence is rather more than circumstantial, but that's another matter). You are being a perfect Boris in casting aspersions & evading the actual question.

If Russia is not the actor in this, who might plausibly be the guilty party? Genuinely, I cannot think of any other candidate.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Donuel
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 06:52 AM

Russian ambassador Vasily Numnutz warns Britain "YOU WILL BE SORRY"

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 07:53 AM

Steve,
Nearly all the evidence I've seen so far comes into the category of "typical Russian behaviour so it was definitely Russia."

No evidence has been released except the type of agent.
All those who have seen the evidence are convinced it was Russia.

You made the analagy of someone in a criminal dock.
You could regard those 28 countries as the jurors.
Their verdict is "Guilty."

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Raedwulf
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 08:15 AM

Steve, 6:32 & 6:45 - cross-posting, as I'm sure you realise... Argh. I'm wanting to get out into the garden & plant things but... Oh alright...

A nuclear device is pretty simple to build, depending on what you want. An explosion? Little Boy was a simple gun. Modern nukes are far more complex & much, much harder to create, even though that tech is also relatively old. Plus, of course, you have to be able to acquire the necessary fissile materials. Dirty bomb? Just get a load of radioactive leftovers & pack them round a suitable amount of explosives. It's all very simple, tech-wise.

It's not ridiculous to suggest that Novichok is an exception. The tech, or rather chemistry, to produce poison gas is very much old hat. Nerve agents are only an extension of that. Again much of it, yes, is old hat. A competent chemist with a decently equipped lab could, I presume, produce them. Google Sarin & wiki will give you the chemical formula for it. After that, it's only a matter of working out what primary ingredients you need & how to construct the reaction chain...

Novichok is another matter; from wiki: "Russian scientists who developed the agents claim they are the deadliest nerve agents ever made, with some variants possibly five to eight times more potent than VX, and others up to ten times more potent than soman. They were designed as part of a Soviet program codenamed "FOLIANT". Five Novichok variants are believed to have been weaponised for military use. The most versatile was A-232 (Novichok-5)."

Note the "weaponised" - it's all very well to produce a doomsday weapon, but you don't want it going off in your own back yard, right? The first gas attacks were delivered from cylinders & were prone to being blown the wrong way by the wind. The first man-made nuclear explosion was a tower-mounted test device that couldn't have been deployed against an enemy.

Novichok agents may have been around for a long time. However, as above, they are claimed to the most poisonous agents known. What was used must have been "weaponised". Otherwise there would have been another twitching body beside the Skripals. So it's a subset of a military-level secret. Governments may indulge in skulduggery, but they don't release the information they gain. The West must know various chemical formulas that fall under the Novichok label, otherwise they would neither know what it was, nor be able to produce counter-measures (Porton Down has more or less admitted that it has).

It is neither reasoned nor reasonable to claim that because Novichok agents were originally created some 40+ years ago the process to manufacture them must therefore be available to non-state bodies or to individuals. You will happily resort to extreme pedantry in debate, Steve, so I have no hesitation in pulling you up on this. This is a shit argument, sir! States guard their secrets very, very carefully. Although the knowledge of Novichok chemistry is obviously not solely in the hands of the Russian govt, it is stupendously unlikely that it has escaped from the control of the states that have it. If it had, it would surely have been used ere now.

Someone attempted to murder Sergei Skripal. Whoever it was had to have a motive & the means to do it. Who knows who might have had a motive? But the only credible aggressor that had the means used & the will to apply the means in the careless & indiscriminate fashion that happened would appear to be Russia. That's logical analysis, not circumstantial evidence. Circumstantial evidence doesn't make a case; it can only add to it. The CE here is "We think Russia has done this sort of thing before". Without e.g. Litvinenko, we would still be pointing the finger at Russia, because Russia is the only credible would-be murderer.

And if it were me in the dock, no I wouldn't be stood there going "Of course it wasn't me, maybe it was you.." as Russia has done. I think I'd be going "Wow! Someone really wants to frame me for this... But sorry, Yer Honour, the evidence looks bad but it weren't me!"

And, for what it is worth, I have no feelings about Russia one way or t'other. Except that I think that Russia suffers under a fascist government not very different from Stalin's fascism*!

*Fascism is not a right wing thing; it's extreme authoritarianism. Consider that there is a N / S y axis to the commonly understood W / E x axis of left & right, when it comes to political ideology. The Nazis were fascists because they were authoritarian, not because they were extreme right wing (they weren't; they were more or less central overall). Marxism is not, doctrinally, authoritarian. But every real world occurrence (coz uz 'oomans iz stoopid) has been fascist. Fascism is about control; it's authoritarian. Stalin was a fascist, Hitler was a fascist, Putin is a fascist. Blessedly, it seems to be an idiosyncracy the UK is free of (however much anyone may loathe the Tories or Nigel Farceage!)

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 08:43 AM

All you're actually doing is padding around the same old two-and-fourpence arguments. You assert that some evidence is "more than circumstantial." Well that's news to me. Which bits then? So states guard their secrets very very carefully, do they? So what's the point of all those spies then, and how come it's known that Novichok has been manufactured in Iran? That latter fact alone means that the cat's well and truly out of the bag. You say that circumstantial evidence can add to a case. Of course, but it can't stand alone. There has to be a case to begin with that's based on something a bit more solid than mere suspicion of a state that you hate already. Your logical analysis may follow the rules of logic on the face of it but if the premises on which your analysis is predicated are assumptions that you can't confirm then the whole edifice collapses. In other words, you've contrived an involved and intricate argument that has added precisely nothing new.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Donuel
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 08:44 AM

Raedwulf (sounds like a fascist Bannon gaming avatar)
may be building a nuclear device. Surveillance should focus on his easiest targets for stealing fissionable or poisonous components in his area which are Hospitals, Construction sites, older glass enclosed containment vessels (can be found almost anywhere) and older military contractor facilities like Grumman, General Dynamics, UTC and Lockheed Martin. Zor Valley NYS or Rocky Flats CO is by far easier to gain access than Hanford or Oak Ridge.

Nuclear reactor grounds have enormous quantities but security is somewhat tighter.

Please, no one should encourage this guy.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 08:49 AM

You know, you can make 'boiling a bum' out of 'building a bomb'. There is only 'db' left over. Sounds very suspicious to me.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Raedwulf
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 11:05 AM

Dave - Alright, I'm guilty! I was never a dba (database administrator, for those not in the know), but I was an analyst/programmer for a FTSE 100's company's Order To Cash system, which is practically the same thing ("what's going on in there; can you make it tell us this..."). I'll come quietly... ;-)

Don - I have no bloody idea what you're on about...

Steve - crap. Again. You say that circumstantial evidence can add to a case. Of course, but it can't stand alone. Yes, Steve, that's EXACTLY what I said - Circumstantial evidence doesn't make a case; it can only add to it. And you the occasional rabid grammar & speeling (sic!) hornet that thou art. ;-) C'mon, mate. I said that. Are you being guilty of reading of what you want to read, instead of what was written?

2/4d yerself. As you said, you're not arguing with me. Not precisely, but... Did you ever have a Scalextric track? Remember the crossover chicane? We're both headed in the same direction, but we never seem to be on the same track. Everything you just said can be thrown back in your face, which is my basic point. I don't know; happily, I'm not in a position where I have to judge.

However, the evidence available currently suggests no other actor than... No other possible actor than... Your own "Iran" proves my point more than yourn, because my point is not that state singular can keep its secret. It can't; it doesn't. But it takes the concerted effort of A.N.Other state to... And A.N.Other state hangs on to it like grim death too.

Ultimately, I make no more assumptions than you, Mr Shaw. But your assumptions do appear to be "There's no evidence so it could have been anyone". My assumptions are "The evidence available suggests..." I ain't making any judgements beyond "Rubbish arguments, Shaw. Must do better. D-" ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 11:31 AM

"However, the evidence available currently suggests no other actor than... No other possible actor than..."

You really have got to do better than that. And not once have I ever said "it could have been anyone." In fact, I think I've said several times that it is more likely than not to have been Russia. Words to that effect. And what I said about circumstantial evidence doesn't clash with what you said at all. But coming to your logical conclusions needs a more solid set of premises than you currently have to hand, unfortunately. I'm still waiting for your "more than circumstantial " evidence, by the way. Finally, do keep it civil between us. You're getting a bit too sarky-out-loud. Calling my opinions crap or rubbish doesn't make them any more so than they may already be, and my name is Steve.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Donuel
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 11:57 AM

Apologies Max, The NSA automatically scans and stores all text that has the phrase building a bomb, among thousands of other key words.

What I am on about is both delicious and sad but it doesn't matter and you need not know.

Today just knowing the obvious is dangerous as it was in the Rosenberg days.

Suffice it to say if any of the posters here had actual hard evidence they would disappear. Since you are all here, enjoy the sandbox.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 12:06 PM

"However, the evidence available currently suggests no other actor than... No other possible actor than..."
You really have got to do better than that

None of us have seen all the evidence.
Those that have are convinced by it.

Australia, Canada, France, Spain, Germany, Italy, .......

All the countries where you would have no worries if your kids went to live and work.
Countries that really believe in justice and freedom, unlike the current regime in Russia where critics of the government meet untimely deaths.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 12:19 PM

I have never been a DBA, a network analyst or a storage specialist but as a UNIX sysadmin I love all three, Raedwulf. If anything is going wrong there are three hurdles people have to get over before they hit me. LAN, SAN and Oracle. 99% of the time it is the latter. The other 1% it is the Russians...

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: robomatic
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 02:24 PM

Dave the Gnome

As a Linux acolyte, thou art damned close to being a god. And I used to really really really hate SAP. And then I met Oracle.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 02:40 PM

HPUX and, more recently, RHEL. I am retiring soon though and decided about 2 years ago that I was not going to develop any more skills in that area. With the upsurge of AWS and Docker containers I think I made a wide choice. I do worry what will happen when everything is in the cloud but I guess that as usual it will all work out fine.

Unless the Russians get to it...

:D tG

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: robomatic
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 02:42 PM

My close relative actually got remunerable employment because he knew a long gone DataBase but someone on the West Coast needed their data re-worked. You never know what you know that someone will want.

I'm waiting for the Pascal renaissance.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Donuel
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 02:46 PM

Ancient astronaut archeologist orhodontic theorists agree
Putin did it

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 02:50 PM

Odd in a way that the Salisbury Two didn't actually undergo "untimely deaths." Who'd have thought that the Russians could be so incompetent! Still. Now what was that about that decent liberal democracy in the Middle East faking UK passports for their Mossad chappies in order to kill a guy they didn't like in Dubai... Gosh, it's a murky old world innit!

Dark talk there, Donuel. You yank guys are still living the Cold War, aren't you? Ronnie Raygun's dead, chaps! You'll be fine!

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: robomatic
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 02:51 PM

FWIW:

There is a long tradition of Russian cruelty to civilians, both foreign and domestic, usually en masse but I have no trouble believing that key Russians in high places have selected individuals for special handling or revenge in particularly noxious manners.

Maybe they are admirers of Livia in "I Claudius". Maybe Lucretia Borgia struck a sympathetic cord with someone in power. Maybe it's a 'thing'.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 03:09 PM

There's a tradition in a awful lot of countries of cruelty to civilians. It's all bad, always. I don't want to do whataboutery but I don't care much for blinkered hypocrisy either.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: robomatic
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 03:30 PM

We all gotta get a slap in at the usual suspects, don't we, mr subtle?

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 04:25 PM

Too bloody right. Just think before ye post.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 04:40 PM

My wife [she's got an MA btw..] just said...

"All this is very confusing isn't it.. I don't understand what's going on....?????"

Then she switched over from BBC News to some bright and noisy ITV light entertainment show....


That's what we are all supposed to do innit, if our tory govt had it's way...!!!

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Raedwulf
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 05:09 PM

I know what your name is. I call you Steve or Mr Shaw, both of which are your names, as I see fit, according to my humour, Which usually means how in / formal it seems to me is appropriate at the time, and in context with whatever. If you want to get the arsehole about that, more fool you.

I don't have to do better, Steve, Mr Shaw. You do. Well done for bolding 'suggests'. You are way more insistent than I am on this matter. I don't know who is responsible for this mess, and I really don't give a fuck who is. Innocents have been hurt because someone, somewhere, decided Sergei Skripal needed to be murdered. It's you that wants to quibble, far more than I. I could go on at length, but what's the point? I can affect things no more than you.

Scalextric, remember? But you really are an irritating bastard sometimes, Steve. The way you express yourself is just sandpaper sometimes. It's just easier to shoot the messenger. I've learnt to tone down my banter-but-others-see-abrasiveness; Mudcat taught me quite a bit about that. You? First post 13/5/07, 19,200+ posts & counting. Me? Less than 1150, first post 22/8/02. Lies, damned lies, statistics, eh? Mouthy much, Steve? Quantity over quality? If I call your opinions crap, I'm merely being blunt, as you often are. Don't like it, don't do it; don't recognise yourself, find a better mirror. The way one expresses oneself, eh? I know I do it; you seem to think you don't. It cuts all ways. If you ain't learnt that, then good luck with the etcetera! ;-)

I agree with you more often than not, where I've seen your remarks. I rarely comment, hence (perhaps) the difference in our stats. But don't try bullshitting me, sir. I don't ascribe words to you, but your words make you seem blind to the realities. It's all very well questioning, but if it wasn't Russia, who the fuck was it? Logical analysis only points one way & I've already told you what I consider to be 'circumstantial'.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 05:11 PM

BTW. As I am sure many are aware I am of Russian ancestry. My dad was Polish, born in Byelystok, but his dad was born in what is now Krupotkin on the Kuban river, which makes him (and me because it is passed on the male line) a Kuban Cossack. My dad told me he learned never to trust a Russian, by which he really meant anyone from around Moscow, from his dad. Funny old world init?

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 05:15 PM

My only response to that, this fine Friday evening, is to suggest that you have another vat of wine. And, if you don't drink, my alternative response is calm down, dear.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Raedwulf
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 05:18 PM

P.S. I'd apologise for derailing the thread, but Dave started it, the pervert! ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 05:18 PM

I know you love it when I call you dear, Dave, but that was to Raedwulf. Hope you aren't too disappointed! ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: bobad
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 05:44 PM

Nice to see the ladies in such fine fettle this evening.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: robomatic
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 06:09 PM

I am a Russian culture admirer of longstanding, despite all the German names in my family tree. I regard the Russians as a people of being more victims of their government than not. But they don't always see it that way. Russian history has been both a cause of and a result of a lot of brutal violence on a tribal level.

Not for nothing, but I heard on the radio once that Hollywood movies that were exported to Russia changed the final reel to make sure the hero died. It was called "putting a Russian ending on the movie."

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 06:21 PM

Well stuff Shostakovich, but apart from that I am also an aficionado of Russian culture. However, I'd say that we are all victims of our governments. Currently, all US citizens, for example, are victims of the Trump government. In this country we are victims of the feckless May government, and we're previous victims of the imbecilic Cameron. The great thing for many people about being victims is that they are blissfully unaware of their victimhood. It's not fair.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 06:38 PM

You can call me dear but don't call me Shirley.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Raedwulf
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 07:12 PM

Steve, Mr Shaw, Sir Etc, I've canned more than one reply. It isn't worth it, it won't achieve anything, you won't hear. But my fingers keep typing 'patronising cunt'. I hope that, at least, might make you stop & think. On the whole, knowing you only here on Mudcat, I like you & mostly agree with you. If I ever wind up in Bude (nude or not), I'll happily buy you a pint. But spare me the "calm down, dear". You twat. If I could be bothered to react to the random bunch of internet pixels that you are, I'd be laughing at you. Need I say more?

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 07:18 PM

Blimey, what an eejit...

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Raedwulf
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 07:29 PM

Yes, you are...

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 09:07 PM

Lads... good natured banter or not, a mod with an itchy thread close trigger finger might not be too lenient...

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 09:14 PM

I'm a lad but how do you know 'he" is? Get modern, pfr...!!! ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 06 Apr 18 - 09:25 PM

fellow sentient beings... - is that better.....???

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: robomatic
Date: 07 Apr 18 - 07:07 PM

SShaw,

Does the name Boris Nemtsov ring a bell? We're not all equivalent victims of our governments. There are all those dead ex-Soviets remember? All the dead Dutch citizens, and particularly all the dead and sidelined reporters in Russia, and the would be democratic opposition that's sidelined with trumped up legal issues.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 07 Apr 18 - 08:45 PM

A fair few dead Palestinians in Gaza too. I haven't a clue what you're talking about.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: bobad
Date: 07 Apr 18 - 08:53 PM

That's what happens when terrorists try to infiltrate a sovereign country in order to murder its citizens.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 07 Apr 18 - 09:23 PM

Yep. The lynch mob moves in.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: bobad
Date: 07 Apr 18 - 09:28 PM

Yup, but the good guys stood their ground.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Iains
Date: 08 Apr 18 - 04:43 AM

The plot thickens!
AN ELECTRONIC message to Moscow sent on the day former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were poisoned with a nerve agent in Salisbury. It was sent from a location near Damascus in Syria to “an official” in Moscow including the phrase ‘the package has been delivered” and saying that two individuals had “made a successful egress”.The message was intercepted by RAF analysts stationed at a listening post in southern Cyprus.

Seems a well traveled straw to me I am afraid.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Iains
Date: 08 Apr 18 - 05:42 AM

Was the message sent by a "white helmet"
Did news travel to Damascus from Salisbury by magic?
Was the parcel from Amazon?
Which BIGGLES book is providing the latest script?

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: The Sandman
Date: 08 Apr 18 - 07:30 AM

is it possible it was MI5 or the CIA?

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 08 Apr 18 - 08:10 AM

Chemivcal attack on civilians in Ghouta, Syria - dozens killed
Probably a coincidence
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Kenny B (inactive)
Date: 08 Apr 18 - 09:39 AM

Possibly, but I'd need proof.
why don't you start a new thread on it ?

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: bobad
Date: 08 Apr 18 - 10:09 AM

It appears the Russians are no longer pretending about their invasion. There are reports of two tank convoys having crossed the border into Ukraine in the Rostov region.

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: Kenny B (inactive)
Date: 08 Apr 18 - 10:25 AM

Interesting, what is your source Bobad
Google search reveals nothing since around 2014?

Subject: RE: BS: If Russia didn't do it..?
From: bobad
Date: 08 Apr 18 - 10:28 AM

https://twitter.com/fatimatlis/status/982946448101859328/video/1