Brexit #2

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 05:03 AM

Yesterday Labour’s NEC decided not to endorse Rebecca Gordon-Nesbitt as a candidate on the basis that she had brought the Labour Party into disrepute. In a late night posting on Facebook she blamed Guido for her demise as a candidate:
Does Labour really want such people. Their image needs a bit of polish
these days. Guido should be congratulated for his diligence.

https://order-order.com/2018/12/19/labours-nec-drops-south-thanet-candidate-hitler-tweets/

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 05:12 AM

I've never completely swallowed the received wisdom that the UK staying out the single currency was a Good Thing for us. Although I agree that the euro was a terrible mistake that would forever blight the smaller and poorer member states, I can't see that the same would have applied to us. I don't think you'll hear too many Germans moaning that the euro was a kick in the goolies for them. We're definitely more in their league than some of those smaller and poorer states are. But I do agree that it was a bloody bad idea.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 05:55 AM

I don't agree Steve, when the Euro became an accounting currency in 1999 the pound was 1.4 Euros, when the notes and coins were issued in 2002 it was 1.6. Now it's 1.1. That is a direct depreciation in the value of our savings and earnings of between 25% and 40% depending upon the date. The Euro provides stability and certainty, it would as its backed by a strong economy. It stops politicians from meddling with its value for their short term gain, and to our long term detriment. I have a lot more time for Gordon Brown than many people, but opposing us going into the Euro was his one big mistake.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 06:15 AM

Well in a way we are agreeing. But the euro has not been good for some countries with smaller economies. I don't think that Greece would agree that the euro has been good for them or for a number of other states in southern Europe. When they get into straits they can't devalue. That's a major issue for them.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 06:26 AM

" The Euro provides stability and certainty, it would as its backed by a strong economy. It stops politicians from meddling with its value for their short term gain, and to our long term detriment"

below:Joseph E Stiglitz is a Nobel laureate in economics, university professor at Columbia University and chief economist at the Roosevelt Institute. The article is 6 months old. Recent events rather confirm his thesis.


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/13/euro-growth-eurozone-joseph-stiglitz
and

https://www.globalchange.com/future-of-euro-and-breakup-of-the-eu.htm#
STABILITY AND CERTAINTY?   I think not!

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 06:34 AM

Is this crying wolf, or a cause for concern?


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/06/central-bank-warnings-are-getting-louder-and-more-frequent-howard-davies

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 06:51 AM

Is whinging about the exchange rate for your holiday euros not overlooking the true impact of fluctuating exchange rates? The rates react to market realities with a direct impact on employment and inflation. Your" poor" deal may be keeping your neighbours in work
Below: A primer


https://www.tutor2u.net/economics/reference/exchange-rates-macroeconomic-effects-of-currency-fluctuations

scroll down to graphic
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-EUR

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 06:54 AM

Steve, I think if you talked to Greeks with savings, they are rather glad that they have not been placed in a depreciating currency.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 06:59 AM

Did I ream hat Britain plans to mobilise troops to handle the crises arising from a hard Brexit ?

Good to see that people are largely ignoring this moronic Guido disciple
Keep it up
Jim carroll

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 07:01 AM

"dream that" of course, so I don't have to respond to Braindead Bertie's grasping of typos
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 07:01 AM

"dream that" of course, so I don't have to respond to Braindead Bertie's grasping of typos
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 07:03 AM

I am quite aware of your links Iains, the second one was where I got my figures from. The first highlights the inflationary effect of exchange rate depreciation. Its not just "holiday Euros", its the cost of practically everything we buy.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: KarenH
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 07:30 AM

The Guardian has another article arguing that the WTO option isn't the saviour it is cracked up to be. That Weatherspoons chappie and Rees Bogg both see it as better than the EU. The former thinks we will once again be 'the champions of free trade'.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/19/wto-brexit-trade-uk-economy

The article questions the equation of 'British' and 'Free Trade'.

And quite rightly, we didn't obtain an empire by paying respect to the free trading choices of others.

The article also explains that all the states which are members of it also have 'side agreements' for trading, as not all of them actually agree with the abolition of all trade tariffs. We could of course put Trump on this list.

Looking to the EU, where so many British businesses trade, does this mean we could get round EU tariffs on our goods by joining or becoming more active in the EU?

But the WTO isn't part of Farage's arguments, he thinks we will be more 'competitive' against EU countries when we have left. Not sure why this should be.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: KarenH
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 07:34 AM

More info on No Deal documents and q and answer pdf

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/contingency-qanda_en.pdf

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: KarenH
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 07:38 AM

It's not looking good for the Brexiteers I was talking to who hoped all the Romanians (they thought all Romanians were gypsies) would be going home after Brexit. Except for racist aggro which might do the trick and which probably will intensify after No Deal Day.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: KarenH
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 07:43 AM

And I've just found out what 'cabotage' is, or perhaps 'was' for any British haulage firms currently engaging in cross EU haulage.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 07:45 AM

The first highlights the inflationary effect of exchange rate depreciation. Its not just "holiday Euros", its the cost of practically everything we buy.

There is no such thing as a free lunch. Competitiveness or lack of it has an upside and downside. Ask the Greeks if they would prefer the drachma over the euro?
With your own currency response can be made to the economic dynamics.
In southern europe the only way is Brussels/Down! The latest economy getting trashed is that of Italy.
How many times do you need to be hit before you feel the pain and see the bruising?

Good morning jimmie. Happy trolling!

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 07:53 AM

"Steve, I think if you talked to Greeks with savings, they are rather glad that they have not been placed in a depreciating currency."


https://tax-free.today/blog/4-lessons-greek-crisis-protect-savings/

https://cointelegraph.com/news/greece-seizes-500000-bank-accounts-worth-euro-16-bln-escape-with-bitcoin

First you have to find a greek with any savings left!

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 08:04 AM

Most Greeks I know prefer the Euro. And plenty have savings in Euros.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 08:12 AM

Just listened to the preparations for a hard Brexit
Sounded very much like those being made for a national emergency.
We have had our share of mindless abuse - can anybody offer anything positive about this catastrophic mess ?
Noticably, one of the first questions asked was not on the threat to the economy or the well being of Brits living abroad but - you guessed it - contolling immigration
Sums up perfectly what all this is about
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: KarenH
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 08:31 AM

The UE treatment of Greece and Germany (and Spain) was an argument against it. But the Brit government was adopting austerity policies without being required to by the EU......

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 10:56 AM

Austerity measures are adopted for sound financial reasons by selfgoverning countries that are in charge of their own fiscal policy.
When external bankers dictate fiscal policy problems result, as in Cyprus, Greece and latterly Italy.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: KarenH
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 11:59 AM

Well, in the UK, grinding the faces of the poor and disabled seems to be the point. I guess that is sound financial policy, and one that will no doubt continue after Brexit though they'll have to grind some new faces when the EU workers on the farms have gone home to Romania etc. Also, it's been austerity for some, massive tax cuts for the rich. Trickle-down benefits for the poor via the foodbanks so praised by Rees Moggie.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 12:49 PM

But it does need to be pointed out that under the last Labour government the National Debt increased threefold.
It also needs to be said that On 31 December 2006, Britain made a final payment of about $83m (£45.5m) and thereby discharged the last of its war loans from the US. By the end of World War II Britain had amassed an immense debt of £21 billion. Also the post-war Labour Government, advised by its resident economic pundits, freely chose not to make industrial modernisation the central theme in her use of Marshall Aid.
There is a big picture for those that can be bothered to look for it. Also an explanation of whose policies aided the decline of british industry.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 12:58 PM

Whoops. By election coming up?
Labour mp guilty of perverting the course of justice. From the pen of guido!

https://order-order.com/people/fiona-onasanya/

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: DMcG
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 01:04 PM

There is a big picture for those that can be bothered to look for it.

Indeed there is. And like any big picture, people tend to see some details and ignore others. Like what has happened to national debt since 2010, for instance.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 01:49 PM

You are quite right DMcG, Labour increased National Debt at a far higher rate than conservatives, by any metric.



https://fullfact.org/economy/labour-and-conservative-records-national-debt/

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 02:32 PM

"But it does need to be pointed out that under the last Labour government the National Debt increased threefold."
The Last NEW LABOUR GOVERNMENT (indistinguisheble from the Tories) is a very different animal to one under Corbyn - hopefully
WHAT THE TORIES DID AND LABOUR IS PLEDGED TO STOP
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 03:15 PM

"If a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy”. I think that sums up the case for a fresh referendum pretty well. It expresses the reason why those who assert that in refusing any such vote is because it would be a betrayal of democracy are so wrong headed.

It's ironic that the words come from a speech made by arch-Brexiters David Davis. But then he was talking back in 2012.

I wish that people who oppose the electorate having a fresh vote would say the truth - that they are against it because they don't want to risk losing. That's a perfectly valid reason after all.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 04:05 PM

I see the Tories have hit a new low. A Tory PM dropped us in this shit. Another Tory PM has presided over the worst negotiations since Custer said to the Cheyenne "lads, lads, let's talk about this". The whole Tory party is in a shambolic civil war. And what do they do? Complain about something Corbyn may have said and, even if he did, was true anyway.

Who wrote this? Galton and Simpson?

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: DMcG
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 04:31 PM

You are quite right DMcG, Labour increased National Debt at a far higher rate than conservatives, by any metric


Well, as that fullfact article explains:

====

Public sector net debt as a proportion of GDP was down under Labour for most of its term. But it then jumped from 36% of GDP in 2007/08 to 65% in 2009/10.

As with the big jumps in the cash amount, that reflects the impact of the financial crisis and the accompanying recession that began in 2008. The reduction in economic activity in that period meant less in tax receipts and higher welfare spending—blowing a hole in the national finances. The much bigger deficits every year added considerably to the overall debt.


====
And, As of Q1 (the first quarter of) 2018, UK debt amounted to £1.78 trillion, or 86.58% of total GDP.

As I say, looking at the big picture and ignoring the world wide financial turmoil during the time Labour was in power, leading to a debt level of 65% when they left power, compared to 86% now, is exactly what I mean by concentrating on things you want to while ignoring things you would rather not think about.


As a general rule of thumb - you can always quote a difference in figures as a ratio or as an absolute change. There is often a political or journalistic reason to quote which looks most dramatic when it suits you, and whichever looks least dramatic when that suits. So the alert reader always asks why this representation is being used when a politician quotes figures.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 19 Dec 18 - 04:36 PM

The Last NEW LABOUR GOVERNMENT (indistinguisheble from the Tories) is a very different animal to one under Corbyn.

Quite right

It must be pointed out that for all it's faults new labour did   actually form a government. Corbyn cannot even create a viable opposition. As for forming a government, that is pushing the envelope of reality too far!

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 03:04 AM

"Corbyn cannot even create a viable opposition. "
On the contrary, that's what he has shown he can to - that's why the rats have spent so much time snapping at his heels in an effort to bring him down
When people wth your evil views pour out your hatred you realised he must be doing something right
If he wasn't the threat that he is arsholes like you wouldn't bother
Can't thik of many people who regard involving Britain in a long-term war by inventing Weapons of Mass Destruction superior to adoping a policy to create a more equal society but I know they exist because we are living through the consequences of them right now
How anybody can criticise past governments while at the same time throwing your support behind the shambles that is Brexit and caricatures like Rees Mogg is beyond me
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 03:47 AM

This is an old tory tactic. "Look, we are completely rubbish. If asked to organise a piss up in a brewery, we would be scouring the attic for used urinals. But look, the polls! The ones carried out by our mates and ex-Chairmen. They say we are ahead! Labour must be hopeless! Vote for us!"

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 03:58 AM

"When people wth your evil views pour out your hatred you realised he must be doing something right"

More little jimmie made up shit and you wonder why I treat you like a fool.
Can we for once have a post from you without distortions, exaggerations and outright lies. Just think. You would have nothing to say and what joy that would bring to the world this festive season.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 04:33 AM

Brexit in a complete shambles? "Look over there - Corbyn insulting May!"
NHS in meltdown? - "Look over there - Corbyn anti-semitism!"
Benefits being withdrawn from the disabled? - "Look over there - Corbyn friend of terrorists!"
Tories being torn apart by internal war? - Look over there - Corbyn enemy of the people!"

And shit-for-brains fuckwit Daily Heil readers fall for the bullshit.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 05:19 AM

Corbyn dragged back to the commons to apologize and still the man lies through his teeth.
Labour MP Fiona Onasanya has been found guilty of perverting the course of justice after a mammoth Old Bailey trial. (A former lawyer to boot)
Labour’s NEC decided not to endorse Rebecca Gordon-Nesbitt as a candidate on the basis that she had brought the Labour Party into disrepute. In a late night posting on Facebook she blamed Guido for her demise as a candidate:
Not a very pleasant bunch now, are they?
With Corbyn’s incoherent and contradictory strategy the People’s Vote crowd are escaping attention. It will be no surprise when Guido tells you there is lots of infighting there too…

Viable opposition? Surely you jest !!

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 07:32 AM

Ha! Mention 'Shit-for-brains fuckwit' and immediately, to prove my point perfectly, one shows up with more of his shit-for-brains fuckwittery! Fucking dick-wad.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: KarenH
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 07:32 AM

I see the Republic of Ireland has dire predictions about a No Deal Brexit, rich since their backstop demand seems to have been a main cause of it.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: KarenH
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 07:43 AM

And Trump's pal Putin has followed suit and wants Britain out of the EU.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: KarenH
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 08:02 AM

Looking forward to Trump waking up and deciding to withdraw troops from the UK.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 08:20 AM

The standard diversionary tactics of the hopeless, clueless Tories...The facts here...

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 08:21 AM

Another fine display of Coprolalia from backwoodsman, Perhaps it is a facade to masquerade behind, or perhaps it should be backwardman?

It is said swearing is the inevitable crutch of the inarticulate!

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 08:27 AM

"More little jimmie made up shit and you wonder why I treat you like a fool."
Good job your on your own then innit
A lesson to be learned there

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 08:44 AM

I see the Republic of Ireland has dire predictions about a No Deal Brexit, rich since their backstop demand seems to have been a main cause of it.

Perhaps the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar should have thought a few things through before gobbing off.
This was the man that threatened to close irish airspaceto to the UK, despite being dependant upon Britain to patrol that airspace if required. A Learjet is the only jet aircraft on the defense force payroll and I do not think "Fighter" is a configuration offered.

From the Irish Government website: “Brexit is posing very complex challenges for Irish aviation and Ireland is uniquely affected compared to other EU Member States given our geographical location.

That same argument applies to all imports and exports from the emerald Isle by all other means.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 09:06 AM

I've just tried muttering "stupid woman" and "stupid woman" int a mirror, and my mouth movements looked identical.

I can't understand why the word "woman" is evidently seen as offensive. I don't imagine "stupid man" would be. Pretty clearly Hersa May was acting in a particularly stupid manner at the time.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 09:07 AM

Their demand is based on not returning to the seventies conflict and playing their part as a community rather than destroying their own future and that of others
Britain;'e 'go it alone and fuck the consequences' is, as has been probed by current behaviour, based on historic xenophobia rather than good business sense (waste of time mentioning good neighborliness)

Britanains actions are besed on small minded nationalism and little else - the E.U.s are based on the interests of a group of European countries
You need to think anout thsese things before you gob off
I have little time for Varadkar, but at least he has the interests of those he represents at heart on this one AS DISTINCT FROM
Your continuing abusive behaviour and your refusal to respond to what people say only proves you to be a gobby ignoramus - carry on gobbing
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 09:09 AM

"Looking forward to Trump waking up and deciding to withdraw troops from the UK"

They are in the UK under invite.

More significant is the fact that they are terminating their illegal presence on the ground in Syria. They are mainly in the NE where the bulk of the oil is.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: KarenH
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 09:33 AM

Nobody wants a return to the violence of the 70s, but if the view is that a hard border would create this, then it would be, as far as I can make out, something very like small-minded nationalism, coupled with religious bigotry, giving rise to the violence. Not neighbourliness.

Sorry, Jim, not excusing the actions of the Normans etc viz a viz the island of Ireland (I won't say the 'country' because it isn't clear that at the time such a thing existed) but a) the attitudes you seem to me to have expressed to the British based on historical events in which I played no part and would not have approved of and b) the mention of a return to sectarian violence - including knee-capping, punishment beatings, protection rackets, funded often from North America etc needs to be stood up to when almost issued as a threat and coupled with strong dislike of DUP voters. If that is how the Irish think and feel about eachother, it is a shame but it isn't endearing, and seems to me it needs to change. You almost feel like pulling up the drawbridge and leaving them to fight it out among themselves. But not to listening to lectures about neighbourliness.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 20 Dec 18 - 09:50 AM

"but if the view is that a hard border would create this,"
A hard border goes far belong nationalism and bigotry, it would severely effect the economies of both sides
Psychologically, the lack of a visible border has done much to bring together both sides - you might believe Ireland to be one country if you allow your attention to slip
Recently the percentage gap between the two communities has almost reached level pegging and the will for a United Ireland has made a United Ireland inevitable in the foreseeable future
That the transition is a peaceful one very much depends on what happens after Brexit
As far as history is concerned - the violence of Northern Ireland has everything to do with the creation of two unequal communities rather than what the Normans did, which is why the recent troubles rose from brutalised Civil Rights marches rather than nationalist or religious fervour
Robert Kee explains it well in his books
Jim