Brexit #2

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 Oct 18 - 09:27 AM

BWM - Just for you. I believe these will be readily available after Brexit.

Magic Unicorn Mugs

Although I am not sure what the term 'mugs' applies to. :-)

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 03 Oct 18 - 09:36 AM

I've been and gone and booked a post-brexit holiday in Sicily. We're staying at Jim Kerr's hotel outside Taormina. We've been before and I gave the buggers five stars so I think they'll let us in...

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 Oct 18 - 10:55 AM

Jim Kerr as in Simple Minds?

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 03 Oct 18 - 11:16 AM

"Taormina."
Still have the wine bottle we bought there - named Teararse - a name to remember (but not necessarily a wine!)
Jim

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 03 Oct 18 - 12:36 PM

Yep, that Jim Kerr. In a brexit thread I've moved from Bwm's feeble minds to Jim Kerr's Simple Minds. A step up...?

It's a lovely hotel, by the way, with a spiffing view of Etna from the terrace of every room. I get a lovely little company called The Sicilian Experience, Italia Nel Mondo, to tailor-make my Sicily holidays, who can do it cheaper than I ever can. Jim, when in Sicily you should be drinking only Nero d'Avola (or Nero Mescalese, grown on the slopes of Etna). When in Napoli it should be Lacrima Christi grown on the slopes of Vesuvio, and when in Puglia it should be Primitivo or Negroamaro. Tsk. And I think your wine is Terre Arse, as I recall a rather decent Marsala, Jim, just the thing to round off a good pasta dinner...

Apparently, the corporate video promoting your wine had a gorgeous young woman suggesting breathily, ‘Let’s try Terre Arse. Breathe in its intense aroma…’ :-)

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 03 Oct 18 - 01:36 PM

I remember back in my youth drinking a Midlands brew we nicknamed 'Shipstone's Rip-Arse'. It certainly did... ;-)

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 Oct 18 - 01:45 PM

Cameron's Strong Arm drunk in quantity at Whitby Folk Week had the same effect, John. Will you be ordering your unicorn mug? :-)

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 03 Oct 18 - 02:49 PM

I seem to recall a few pints of Banks' Bitter, followed by a late-night prawn vindaloo with extra pappadoms, having a similar effect. Rip 'n' burn...

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 03 Oct 18 - 03:07 PM

Nah Dave - it's the Brexiteers who are Unicorn-Mugs! ;-)

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Raggytash
Date: 04 Oct 18 - 11:56 AM

More dire forecasts of what we can expect post Brexit. One from the Royal Bank of Scotland and one from Nissan in Sunderland.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 04 Oct 18 - 12:39 PM

Of course our resident brexiteers will point out that Nissan did say some time back that nothing will change. I shall not say 'I told you so', but how gullible they are. Mind you, if you can believe anything that Farage, Johnson or Gove tell you, you can believe anything.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Raggytash
Date: 04 Oct 18 - 02:56 PM

With reference to my earlier post which mentioned the Nissan plant in Sunderland there is a very good article in todays Guardians "long read" section about the possible future of the plant.

One very enlightening comment was from Keith Joseph, the Industry Minster in 1980.

Could someone please link.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 04 Oct 18 - 03:06 PM

THINK IT'S THIS ONE!
Jim

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 04 Oct 18 - 03:06 PM

THINK IT'S THIS ONE!
Jim

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Raggytash
Date: 04 Oct 18 - 03:20 PM

That's the one Jim, Thank you.

It does makes for very sobering reading.

Yet another potentially unintended consequence of the Brexit debacle.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 04 Oct 18 - 04:09 PM

It does indeed. It gives me no pleasure to say it but the 61% who voted leave in Sunderland only have themselves to blame. Still, when the Nissan plant closes down they can all retrain as nurses or waiters or fruit pickers to fill in the gaps left by their resolve to rid us of them damned furriners...

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: peteglasgow
Date: 04 Oct 18 - 04:28 PM

10 folk at my italian language class tonight. 5 are learning as they hope to retire to italy given the state that england is in. i'm learning to visit my son next month - my son is hoping to gain italian citizenship. my escape route is scotland - but i'm sure italy - or maybe estonia -could be an option

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 05 Oct 18 - 02:57 PM

Wonder if this is what the Brexiteers meant by "Take Are Cuntry Back"?

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: DMcG
Date: 07 Oct 18 - 03:14 AM

So lots of talk about Canada+++ at the moment, and it was always something Barnier said was a possibility in his several-years-old diagram.

I think it vastly better than no deal, but still a pretty bad deal. Northern Ireleand remains as problematic as ever, but let's imagine some solution is found. Canada+++ is a deal which puts the maximum administration costs on individual businesses, since they end up having to get certificates, making declarations and so forth. If their product uses third party components, they end up with all the responsibility of ensuring those components are to the relevant standards. It is quite easy to see the costs of this end up as O(n*n) rather than O(n) for n businesses. It will work, certainly, but not efficiently.

Because of the administration, the risk of delays and disruption at the ports remains almost as high as under a no-deal.

And because of the costs of this, the pressure to cheat the system and use unverified and possibly unsafe third party components is maximised.

So not a good deal for most, I think.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 07 Oct 18 - 06:18 AM

One of the more sinister aspects of Brexit as covered in the Sunday Times this morning
Fraage has already taken steps to get something in Ireland - now he seems to be going International
Just what Britain needs is hepp from the feller who put the head of the United Rapes of America where he is today
Jim

Bannon bags a Belgian buddy to launch far-right Assault on Brussels
Peter Conradi Brussels
When Mischael Modrikamen, leader of a small populist party, sat down for the first time with Steve Bannon, Donald Trump’s one-time ideologist, at Brown’s hotel in Mayfair for a Sunday lunch arranged by Nigel Farage, it came close to love at first sight.
“It was immediately clear we shared a vision about what should happen and what should be done,” said the Belgian, 52, puffing on a cigar last week in his mansion in Watermael-Boitsfort, one of Brussels’s smarter suburbs. “Steve said recently to me, ‘I could have finished your sentences and you could have finished mine.’”
Within a few days of their lunch on July 15, the unlikely couple had agreed to transform their shared vision into a “club” that will help like-minded political parties in Europe to apply to their own countries the ideas that swept Trump to power in America.
They call it the Movement, though - with a nod to Lenin’s Communist International, the Comintern, which propagated world communism - perhaps the “Populist International” or even “Popintern” might be more appropriate. “We are starting with Europe but aim to go global,” said Modrikamen.
Its immediate target is next May’s European parliament elections, which its founders see as a chance to give a bloody nose to the centrist leaders of France and Germany. Success for the populists - or “sovereignists”, as Modrikamen likes to style them - would be to win 30% of the vote, enough to form a blocking minority.
Membership of the Movement will be based on adherence to a few core principles: national sovereignty, secure borders, controls on immigration and the battle against radical Islam. Run from Modrikamen’s mansion, it will not just link parties but also offer expertise in polling analysis and other techniques that helped Trump to victory two years ago.
“It is aimed as a loose affiliation. You can be a member of our club and also of any other organisation you want,” said Modrikamen, who has a huge portrait of Winston Churchill in the hall and named one of his dogs Clemmie, after Churchill’s wife. The other is called Mrs Thatcher.
In the past few weeks, Modrikamen and Bannon have travelled across Europe to vet potential members. First to be signed up last month were Matteo Salvini, the Italian interior minister and leader of the League, and Giorgia Meloni, head of the smaller Brothers of Italy party. The pair also met Milos Zeman, the Czech president.
Modrikamen - whose own Popular Party will struggle to reach double figures in the European election - claims interest from 20 or so other organisations, including Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (formerly the National
Front) in France and the Alternative for Germany (AfD), as well as smaller parties in Holland and the Nordic countries.
They also have their eyes on Viktor Orban, the Hungarian leader, who, while threatened with EU sanctions over his increasingly illiberal policies, has become a poster boy for the populists of western Europe thanks to his hostility to immigration.
“Hungary is being punished today because it is fighting for its culture and its identity and because it is refusing to take its quota of migrants,” said Modrikamen. “As a Jew, I feel much safer in Budapest than I would be in Brussels or Paris. I feel much more concerned about Jeremy Corbyn becoming the next prime minister of the UK.”
Bannon plans to devote himself almost full-time to European politics after next month’s US mid-term elections. Smaller parties trying to break their way into parliament for the first time may need his help, but established leaders maybe more reluctant to be seen to turning for advice to an American. “Of course Salvini and Orban don’t need our help winning elections,” said Modrikamen.
Yet Europe’s populists have the wind in their sails - and see the value of co¬operation with one another. Salvini is soaring in the polls by pursuing a tough line against migration and budgetary discipline from Brussels. He has accused Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU Commission president, of having “ruined” Italy
Populists are shaking up the political landscape in other countries, too. The latest is Latvia, where the recently formed KPV LV - whose name means “Who does the state belong to?” - was expected to take third or fourth place in yesterday’s election with a programme attacking “elites” and offering radical change.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, is fighting back with plans for a conference of like-minded “progressive” Europeans in Paris on October 20 in an attempt to transplant his own disruptive political
success in France to the continent as a whole - though this may not go down well with centrist parties.
Yet while Modrikamen’s 30% target may be optimistic, Europe’s dominant parties, whether on the centre left or centre right, are losing ground. Macron, hailed as the saviour of liberal democracy when he became president in 2017 and still feted abroad, is plunging in the polls at home.
A bad summer has turned into an even worse autumn, marred by a series of gaffes and defections from his government. The most serious loss was Gérard Collomb, his interior minister, who stepped down last week, forcing the president to contemplate a big reshuffle.
Angela Merkel, the German leader, meanwhile, risks becoming a lame duck after a series of crises that have pushed support for her ruling “grand coalition” with the Social Democrats below 50%. Further humiliations loom in state elections in Bavaria next Sunday and in Hesse two weeks later.
@Peter_Conradi

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: DMcG
Date: 08 Oct 18 - 12:27 PM

From a live newsfeed on The Guadian website a few minutes ago:

Majority of Tory voters in England would be happy to see UK break up as price of Brexit, survey suggests


According to research by the Centre on Constitutional Change, which is based at Edinburgh University, Brexit is “dislodging long-held red lines about the [UK] union”. It says a majority of Conservative voters in England would prefer to press ahead with Brexit even if it led to the UK breaking up.

Here is an extract from the news release it has sent out.



Clear majorities of English Conservatives would support Scottish independence or the collapse of the NI peace process as the price of Brexit

87% of (overwhelmingly unionist) leave voters in Northern Ireland see the collapse of the peace process as an acceptable price for Brexit ...

Nearly half (49%) of English Conservative voters do not think Scottish MPs should sit in the UK cabinet and, in worse news for David Mundell [the Scottish secretary] as the SNP gathers in Glasgow, 24% of Scottish Conservative voters agree with them

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: SPB-Cooperator
Date: 10 Oct 18 - 06:56 AM

According to my memory, Farrige has repeated stated that he would welcome the break-up of the entire EU, and that, combined with the far-right/neo-nazi sorts he associates with can only suggest that his aim is a breakdiwn of inrernational cohesion and coioperation which would be able to make a collective stand against any uprising of the far-right. We live in frightening times.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 10 Oct 18 - 09:16 AM

The government are now advertising EU Exit Readiness and Response Support roles.

This is not scare tactics. This is the government getting ready for envisaged problems. They do not admit that there could be problems lightly.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Oct 18 - 10:57 AM

I wonder if any any the Brexitters will classify todays report that 5,000 jobs will be lost in the City of London if there is a no deal situation.

Now I know some of you will say this is bad news, however this forecast is lower than some others previously, so I am certain that some will claim it as good news.

Could some kind soul link to the article in the Guardian "UK expects to lose 5,000 jobs"

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 10 Oct 18 - 11:09 AM

CAN'T FIND GUARDIAN REPORT - WILL THIS DO?
Jim

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Oct 18 - 12:02 PM

Iains, Jim, Steve, Al, Keith and everyone else it may concern.

I stated at the start of this second discussion on Brexit that I would ask for posts not directly related to the subject to be deleted. More the most part this has served to temper the discussion, although some posts by both "sides" have has to be erased.

I have limited access to the internet and I'm certain the Moderators have far better things to do with their time than trawl through posts deleting the "naughty" ones.

Please keep to the subject.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: SPB-Cooperator
Date: 10 Oct 18 - 04:32 PM

The idea of a 'resiliance officer' is an abuse of public money. Any problems if they arise will be totally as a result of the government's own making and as such, any mitigation needs to be paid 100% from the governments own pockets.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 11 Oct 18 - 06:50 AM

DUP
TESSIE MAY'S THEME TUNE
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Jack Campin
Date: 11 Oct 18 - 01:35 PM

The great Brexit fishing scam:

https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/11/fishing-quota-uk-defra-michael-gove/amp/

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 12 Oct 18 - 04:45 AM

Just for those who insist that it is only the papers who supported remain that carry the bad news.

Daily Fail article stating that No-deal Brexit could cause the worst economic crash since the 'Three Day Week' in 1974 with the Pound slumping and Britons hoarding food.

I wonder when they are going to say 'You know that thing that we promoted a couple of years back? Well, sorry, it it was crap after all."

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 12 Oct 18 - 04:53 AM

Mail has changed its tune since Dacre has gone.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 12 Oct 18 - 05:59 AM

Interesting piece on 'Look North' (Yorkshire) last night. A number of residents and business people from Hull, which came down strongly in favour of brexit, were interviewed and most had changed their minds.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 12 Oct 18 - 08:18 AM

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-referendum-millions-leave-voters-best-for-britain-no-deal-theresa-may-conservative-government-a8521346.html
2.6 million have changed their mainds
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 12 Oct 18 - 08:24 AM

Tories would rather see the UK destroyed than stay in Europe.

Quote from the article.

May’s approach to Brexit has never had space for compromise with the 48% of the UK that voted remain. But she has consistently made compromises with a section of the Tory party that cultivates a particularly reactionary form of Anglo-Britishness, and which regards Brexit as much more important than the preservation of the union. Polling this week showed that 77% of English Tory members would rather see Scottish independence than abandon Brexit; much the same proportion of May’s party say they would sacrifice the Irish peace process too.

Sickening. Would rather look after their own power and interests than the good of the UK.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 12 Oct 18 - 10:05 AM

A bit of light relief.

Hard Brexit will be ‘brilliant for Britain’, insists complete f*cking moron

Would be even funnier if it was not so close to the truth...

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Raggytash
Date: 12 Oct 18 - 10:16 AM

Thanks for the article Jack, very interesting.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 12 Oct 18 - 12:37 PM

Something else the Brexit campaign didn't put on the side of a red bus...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/11/second-kent-motorway-is-possible-post-brexit-lorry-park?CMP=share_btn_fb

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: peteglasgow
Date: 12 Oct 18 - 04:07 PM

apparently brexit is now being driven by the extreme anti-eurpean zealots on the extremist wing of the tory party and (ffs) the DUP. is this really what 'the people' voted for?

come on guys, you've had your fun - but it's time to get sensible now, surely?

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 12 Oct 18 - 04:14 PM

Sorry Pete, they don't do sensible.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 13 Oct 18 - 01:14 AM

"apparently brexit is now being driven by the extreme anti-eurpean zealots on the extremist wing of the tory party and (ffs) the DUP. is this really what 'the people' voted for?"

Surely you meant "Is this really what a small minority of the people voted for?". 37% of the electorate hardly constitutes 'The People', and 26% of the population even less so. We are being led by the nose towards a disaster - anyone with a working brain should be able to see it - and on that basis alone, the entire ridiculous farce of Brexit should be abandoned.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 13 Oct 18 - 07:27 AM

Sheffield University Young Liberals have been forced to cancel an event with Nick Clegg after threats of protest and disruption from leftist students. The society said that “after lengthy discussions with both the SU and University we had no option but to cancel the event” on the grounds of “security.” Clegg joins the ranks of Peter Tatchell and Germaine Greer as someone whose opinions are clearly too dangerous to be heard by students…

From the upright man guido.
https://order-order.com/2018/10/12/nick-clegg-no-platformed-sheffield-students/

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: DMcG
Date: 13 Oct 18 - 07:40 AM

That almost certainly is about tuition fees and the coalition with the Conservatives. It is unlikely to have any connection with Brexit.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: DMcG
Date: 14 Oct 18 - 05:09 AM

Foster emerged from a meeting last week in Brussels with Michel Barnier, the French official leading the EU's negotiating team, convinced that the prospects for a Brexit deal were fading so fast that, given Brussels' stance on Northern Ireland, an agreement had become the least likely outcome. Senior government advisers were swiftly informed that the DUP leader was "ready" for the UK to crash out of the EU without a deal.


So the DUP is ready for a no-deal. I wonder if they think the rest of Northern Ireland is ready, in the sense of having taken all appropriate steps to mitigate the effects of the risks in Raab's papers....

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 14 Oct 18 - 11:49 AM

"No deal" (actually meaning leaving and relying on WTO terms) may be the best we can hope for.
To my mind it is definitely better than the terms Theresa May is supporting.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Raggytash
Date: 14 Oct 18 - 12:07 PM

"The best we can hope for" does not exactly inspire confidence Nigel.

Both you and I know it will take years to renegotiate new terms with the WTO that MAY be favourable to the UK. I am sure we both know that the UK is in a very weak position to negotiate anything at the moment.

And we both know that Teresa May has an extremely difficult task trying to persuade even her own colleagues that her proposals are in the best interest of the UK.

There is a minority within the Conservative party who favour a hard brexit, the conservatives themselves are also a minority of the people eligible to vote and the voters themselves are only a percentage of the population in total.

I'm actually feel a bit sorry for Teresa May, rocks and hard places come to mind.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: DMcG
Date: 14 Oct 18 - 12:11 PM

Well, there is a good chance that we will know whether we have taken the first steps in a few days. Since everyone is make lots of noise to try to promote their own stance before Wednesday, I am not sure there is much point commenting on the news at the moment: we are the 'spin cycle' at the maximum now.

Naturally, Nigel, I take a different view: almost any deal May came back with is likely to be preferable to no deal. But we may as well hold off a few days and see what happens next.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 14 Oct 18 - 12:17 PM

I would feel sorry for May but for the fact that she introduced the 'hostile environment' policy that fueld the fires of racial hatred that tipped people into voting brexit. She is getting everything she deserves.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 14 Oct 18 - 12:17 PM

"The best we can hope for" does not exactly inspire confidence Nigel.
Both you and I know it will take years to renegotiate new terms with the WTO that MAY be favourable to the UK. I am sure we both know that the UK is in a very weak position to negotiate anything at the moment.

No, I don't 'know that'.
WTO terms are already set. They are the general terms on which the whole world trades (in the absence of specific agreements). They will not take years to 're-negotiate'.
I think you are displaying the general level of ignorance about how world trade is actually conducted.

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Iains
Date: 14 Oct 18 - 12:29 PM

The labour party contribution to brexit is summed up beautifully by Corbyn below!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YiXsuyYa4c

Subject: RE: Brexit #2
From: Raggytash
Date: 14 Oct 18 - 12:31 PM

You missed my point Nigel "terms that MAY be favourable to the UK"

The current terms are not necessarily as favourable to the UK as the terms of agreements we already enjoy as members of the EU.

To Hell in a hand cart springs to mind.