BS: brake checking - what do you know?

Subject: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: leeneia
Date: 06 Oct 18 - 10:25 AM

I like to watch YouTube, and I've just become aware of brake checking. It doesn't mean getting your brakes checked to make sure they are safe, it means hitting your brakes hard while in front of another vehicle which is going a good speed. (The "checking" part of the phrase seems to come from ice hockey.)

Sometimes vehicle 2 is tailgating, but often that is not the case. (Of course I mean the drivers are causing their vehicles to tailgate, etc, but that takes longer to say.) Often we see a vehicle change lanes to deliberately put itself in front of another (usually bigger) one. Then the driver of the first vehicle hits the brakes while driving down the open road. The results can be very bad.

Some observers think that Driver 1 is doing this to cause a wreck and to make an insurance claim, but considering the low payouts, the deductible and the possible injury, that doesn't make a lot of sense.
And with dashboard cameras getting more and more common, there are lots of videos showing what really happened.

Does anybody know what's really going on with brake checking?

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Jos
Date: 06 Oct 18 - 11:03 AM

I don't drive, but that sounds scary.

However, it's not just drivers - pedestrians do it to other pedestrians as well. Sometimes I am walking along at a reasonable speed and people on the other side of the road will cross at an angle so that they reach my side immediately in front of me, blocking the pavement [sidewalk]. They then slow down so that I am forced to crawl along behind them or step into the road to get past them.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Raggytash
Date: 06 Oct 18 - 11:14 AM

If someone is tailgating it's much safer for you and them to just flick your rear fog light on and off a couple of times. They will think they are brake light and will hopefully back off.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 06 Oct 18 - 11:18 AM

I used to have a Lada estate with a reversing spotlight operated by a switch on the dash. That didn't half out tailgaters off!

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Dave Hanson
Date: 06 Oct 18 - 11:27 AM

Not fog lights which are white, sidelights which are red.

Dave H

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Jon Freeman
Date: 06 Oct 18 - 11:53 AM

As far as I know, the slamming on of bakes if used as a scam in the UK.

see this for example.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 06 Oct 18 - 11:56 AM

I think the term for both front (white) and rear (red) foglights is now "HI" (High Intesity), Dave. But I have been wrong before. Very occasionally ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Raggytash
Date: 06 Oct 18 - 11:59 AM

In the UK rear fog lights are all red as far as I am aware. The white lights at the rear are reversing lights, now reversing would cause the driver behind to panic!

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Jon Freeman
Date: 06 Oct 18 - 12:08 PM

I think UK rear fog lights are red and don't see it being otherwise - red and white lights do tell you which way the vehicle is facing. I think the reversing lights are usually switched by the gear selector and would need a rewire to do that but Ladas hey... (not that they were all bad, when in N Wales, a local taxi firm (before oddly, switching to Mercs) ran them for years and I can't see that if Ladas didn't have some reliability)

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 06 Oct 18 - 12:12 PM

The reversing spot was a custom job. And, yes, it definitely caused panic behind :-)

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Jon Freeman
Date: 06 Oct 18 - 12:28 PM

Frightening was being in a Morris Minor some 20 years back actually Reversing into M1 traffic around Leeds as the driver had missed the junction.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: meself
Date: 06 Oct 18 - 06:23 PM

Sounds like one of those urban legend things: all of a sudden we are supposed to be extra-scared of drivers in front of us slamming on their brakes for no reason, because ... they are evil, or something. No doubt there will be a number of anecdotes making the rounds.

Some years back, it was drivers flashing their headlights - and if you flashed back, they would come after you and kill you. It was the initiation for some weird gang. It's true: I read it on the internet.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: leeneia
Date: 06 Oct 18 - 09:57 PM

Meself, follow Jon Freeman's link.

Thanks for the link, Jon.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: meself
Date: 07 Oct 18 - 01:05 AM

Okay, I guess it happens ... !

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Thompson
Date: 07 Oct 18 - 06:07 AM

Brake checking won't bother you if you're keeping back a legal distance from the car in front.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Jos
Date: 07 Oct 18 - 06:53 AM

I have been a passenger in cars that were keeping a safe distance but other drivers kept overtaking to fill the space in front.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: robomatic
Date: 07 Oct 18 - 04:05 PM

There are times on mountain roads where people group up and when this happened to me, I sometimes let people close behind me pass me rather than 'brake check' them. And more often than not, the driver, having passed me, slowed down because it is harder to be a lead driver on winding roads with glare on your windshield than to be a follower.
That didn't turn me into a brake checker, at least on mountain roads, but, in my youth, I did occasionally brake check folks who were tailgating me. I do not do it anymore. I did not cause any accidents, but on one occasion I came damn close.

I now practise mandatory courtesy. I do not believe I can 'teach' anyone to drive better by my own poor driving.

If someone wants to drive faster than me, I let them by. If they are tailgating where they cannot pass, and I feel it is a safety issue, I let my car coast to a slower speed, then accelerate back to highway speed. If this does not work I repeat the procedure.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: leeneia
Date: 07 Oct 18 - 11:50 PM

As Jon Freeman's link states, criminals are deliberately causing accidents by cutting vehicles off and then hitting the brakes. There are numerous videos on YouTube showing this occurring.

This is so stupid that at first I couldn't believe it, but now that I know that gangs are involved, I accept that anything might happen. Maybe I should buy stock in companies that sell dashcams.

Some brake checking occurs because of tailgating, but that seems to be unusual. Most people are too smart to stomp on the brakes when there's a vehicle close behind. Besides, Archie Goodwin, Nero Wolfe's assistant, taught us that we can spook a tailgater by turning our lights on and off, which creates the impression that we braked, even though we did not.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Senoufou
Date: 08 Oct 18 - 03:33 AM

I'm a wimp and if I'm tailgated on a Norfolk road, I generally indicate left and leave the highway, so that the twit goes straight on. I do a short detour and rejoin the main road.

I have heard that people perform insurance scams by braking sharply and provoking a shunt. Very dangerous. One tries always to keep a safe distance, but as Jos says, other drivers get in front of you and fill the space.

I might add that I (and husband) always drive up to the permitted speed; we aren't ancient old crawlers. However, if one zooms swiftly around bends in the road in Norfolk, one is likely to suddenly encounter either a slow tractor, a maize/hay/straw truck, a cattle-feed lorry, a horse and rider, an old lady on a bike, an escaped ewe - take your pick!

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: leeneia
Date: 08 Oct 18 - 01:14 PM

Good advice, Senoufou. And as you say, we can't always have the space around us that we'd like.

Yesterday I was tailgated on a narrow city street so closely that I couldn't even see the grille of the car behind, let alone the license plate or tires. The driver looked to be at least 30 years old - not a learner. Fortunately he turned left pretty soon.

By the way, what's a shunt?

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Senoufou
Date: 08 Oct 18 - 01:23 PM

A 'shunt' is a collision from behind (rather like a 'prang')

We find aggression on the roads is increasing. I suppose people are more stressed out these days, but that's no excuse to drive dangerously and with menace!

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Charmion
Date: 08 Oct 18 - 01:53 PM

On the weekend, I drove from Stratford to Windsor and back on Highway 401, the Great Trunk Road of southern Ontario. The distance is substantial -- two and a half to three hours' driving time, depending on weather and the prevalence of roadworks. It was yet another lesson about the value of "mandatory courtesy", as if I needed it.

Road construction goes on all summer and sometimes all winter on the 401, which is one of Canada's most heavily travelled highways. Drivers typically get about five kilometers of warning that a construction site is ahead, and the contractors usually put out signs to indicate which lanes are closed. Between the warning sign and the pinch point, all the drivers sort themselves into the unimpeded lane, taking turns like the teeth of a zipper.

Well, that's the theory. In real life, there's always some asshat who can't bear to give way and let another car in at the pinch point, which leads to the thwarted people refusing in their turn, which slows the traffic stream to a crawl. Then some massive piece of construction equipment has to move so the crawling traffic halts, causing a massive tailback. And there you are, stuck, jerking along in first gear and then halting, usually behind an enormous truck so you can't see a thing.

On Saturday afternoon, it was raining stair-rods, cats, dogs and possibly frogs, and we hit three construction zones on the 401. The biggest one was at least 10 kilometers long, and all through it I watched an expensive Audi sedan tailgate an 18-wheeler so ruthlessly I thought we were going to witness its disappearance up the truck's tailpipe. I hung well back in the hope that, when the collision happened, I would have time and space to avoid contributing to it. The guy driving the Chevrolet SUV behind us was obviously thinking the same way, for he kept a long stretch of pavement between his front bumper and our hind end.

God smiled, and nothing bad happened -- no small matter in rain like that, at close to 100 kph.

If anybody had indulged in brake-checking, the result would have been a sideways skid into the concrete barrier protecting the construction site, or the rails separating us from the on-coming traffic. The carnage would have been immense.

At the end of the construction zone, I slid into the slow lane and let all the jerks and impatient people pass us. The Audi took off as if jet-assisted. I bet the guy driving the tailgated truck was glad to see the back of him.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 08 Oct 18 - 02:04 PM

Wow, Stratford ON! Back in July 2015, on our way home to the UK from AB and BC, Mrs. Backwoodsperson and I called in to her brother's home in Burlington ON for a few days, and he took us to see a performance of 'Henry V' at the Shakespeare Theatre in Stratford ON. A great performance in a very fine theatre, surrounded by a beautiful park. Bought a copy of the play from the bookshop there.

Aaaahh, Memories!

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Senoufou
Date: 08 Oct 18 - 02:41 PM

It's often an Audi, a BMW or a Mercedes driver that cuts these capers isn't it?
(Apologies if anyone on here drives one of those, I realise I'm generalising)
In the sixties I stayed with my aunt and uncle in London, Ontario for six weeks. Brilliant country, everyone was delightful and welcoming.
(They took me to Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa too)

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 08 Oct 18 - 06:40 PM

I absolutely LURVE Canada and Canadians, Sen. A beautiful country, and friendly, welcoming people. If I wasn't so old, I'd be seriously thinking of moving there, but I'm fairly certain they wouldn't want a diabetic 71 year-old (and who could blame them?) :-)

My wife's brother is a Toronto cop - rides the big 'Chips' Harleys through the summer. He's never regretted moving over there.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 08 Oct 18 - 06:41 PM

And apologies for the thread drift!

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: FreddyHeadey
Date: 08 Oct 18 - 07:46 PM

ok, a little more thread drift, but it is sort of about road manners. Senoufou reminded me of it ..

Frank Muir[BBC wit\raconteur of the 60s70s80s] told of a time he was trundling through the back roads of Oxfordshire in his vintage Lagonda.
Rounding a corner not particularly on the wrong side of the road (considering the size of his ancient car) a woman driving in the opposite direction slammed on her brakes and stopped, effectively barring the road. She wound down her window, gesticulated viciously and bellowed at him at great volume "Pig!!" before crunching her car back into gear and accelerating away.
Rather miffed at this disagreeable encounter on what had, up till then, been such a lovely day he continued on his journey, only to come round the next corner and run slap bang into a Gloucestershire Old Spot.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: leeneia
Date: 09 Oct 18 - 01:32 AM

She could have been a little more explicit.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Senoufou
Date: 09 Oct 18 - 04:26 AM

Ah Backwoodsman, my aunt and uncle emigrated there just after the War and adored the place. My cousin was born there. The only thing which might have put me off joining them as a young woman was the bitterly cold winters. (I don't do bitterly cold!)

Freddy that's so funny. As leeneia says, she might have elaborated a little.

All the things I listed as being encountered round the bends in Norfolk roads have been experienced by us, including the escaped ewe.
We stopped and knocked on the door of the farmhouse. The farmer was a grumpy old bugger and wasn't a bit grateful for our concern. He whistled his dog and got the sheep back into the field, then started to go back indoors until I pointed out the thing had got out through a big hole in the hedge. He scowled alarmingly. But these animals can cause bad accidents on the roads.

And an eighty year-old lady in our village had a terrible accident a few months ago. She was driving a governess cart drawn by a nice horse when a huge grain lorry zoomed up behind her and hooted loudly. The horse bolted, the chaise overturned and she was thrown to the ground.
The East Anglian Air Ambulance had to come. She's now paralysed from the waist down and will end her days in a wheelchair. Tragedy.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 09 Oct 18 - 06:28 AM

I hope the lorry driver was prosecuted!

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Senoufou
Date: 09 Oct 18 - 07:12 AM

No he wasn't Dave. He told the Police that he'd sounded his horn 'to warn her he was behind' and it 'wasn't his fault the horse bolted'. I suppose he could have been correct, but no-one in the village was okay with his statement.

The Air Ambulance were very swift to attend and landed beside the Village Hall (big yellow helicopter). We all made a donation later - most of the Village Bingos round here donate to it anyway.

The poor lady (Sheila) was so active for her age, like most of the elderly in the sticks. But now she's very depressed and seems to have given up. Very very sad.

The horse galloped back to the stable dragging the cart on its side behind him. He wasn't injured.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Thompson
Date: 10 Oct 18 - 03:48 AM

And an eighty year-old lady in our village had a terrible accident a few months ago. She was driving a governess cart drawn by a nice horse when a huge grain lorry zoomed up behind her and hooted loudly.

No, no, the driver zoomed up behind her and hooted loudly. The driver is responsible.

Not just a joke - our habit of taking agency and responsibility away from drivers, unconsciously - "a car drove into a group of pedestrians", "a bus mounted the pavement", etc - also takes away our realisation that these actions are done by human beings who should be held responsible, morally and financially, for their actions.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Thompson
Date: 10 Oct 18 - 03:49 AM

Oh, and another thing, people will always say "Oh, how awful for the poor driver to have to live with that for the rest of his life". Codswallop. I hope they feel awful. Lots don't. People are very good at blaming others.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Senoufou
Date: 10 Oct 18 - 04:13 AM

I think you're quite right Thompson, people should take responsibility for their actions on the roads. My old father used to say, "There's no such thing as an accident!" meaning that people's bad driving decisions, aggressive speed, lack of adherence to the Highway Code, poor state of a vehicle (brakes etc) caused collisions and injuries, and none of these were 'accidental'.

There was a horrendous 'accident' last year near our village, on the Fakenham road near Nowhere Lane, told to me by a neighbour who was a witness. The speed limit is 50mph. At the small junction a car was indicating to turn left and was waiting until another vehicle emerged to join the main road. This meant there was a line of about four cars stationary for a few seconds.

A young lad in a white van doing the max speed was looking at his phone and didn't notice the stopped traffic ahead until the last minute, so he swerved out onto the opposite side of the road to avoid them, crashed head-on with a car and died instantly.
His family left a mountain of flowers and tributes at the spot. It was heart-rending.

But I wouldn't call that an 'accident'.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Jos
Date: 10 Oct 18 - 05:42 AM

It always annoys me when news reports (usually on local radio or television channels), say that a vehicle "lost control" - obviously, it was the DRIVER who lost control.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Senoufou
Date: 10 Oct 18 - 06:38 AM

Totally agree Jos.
That terrible 'accident' in NY with the stretch limo/wedding car is a case in point.
The driver wasn't even licensed and the car had failed an inspection.
Twenty people lost their lives - including the newly-wed couple. Appalling.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: BobL
Date: 11 Oct 18 - 03:23 AM

I remember a road safety slogan from years back- "Accidents don't happen, they are caused".

Incidentally, as regards the horse & cart accident, the lorry driver might have escaped prosecution, but I hope he found himself in very hot water with his employer.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Senoufou
Date: 11 Oct 18 - 03:42 AM

One would hope so Bob. In my opinion he was wrong for belting along too fast on that narrow village street, and sounding his very loud horn at a horse-drawn vehicle was lunacy.

Ruth-across-the-road's husband is a long-distance lorry driver, and does trips over to France regularly. He tells me about his adventures and the appalling driving he witnesses daily on our motorways.

He often sees (mainly Eastern European) drivers watching screens in their cabs and talking on their phones while driving. He sees them meandering all over the road (presumably drunk).

In his view there are some ghastly lorry drivers on the roads. But also he encounters daily some dreadful car drivers getting right up behind him or darting out in front of him.
He knows only too well how his huge truck could crush and kill people in a car.
The poor chap (he's nearing retirement) has also had 'visitors' trying to get into his truck during night stops near the French ports. All the Brit drivers watch out for each other over there, and are vigilant about people creeping under the covers of a container load.

I used to drive all over England visiting prisons and have been on lots of motorways (M11, M25, M3, M6 etc) but I just couldn't face it now. It's an absolute Death Trap by all accounts!

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Thompson
Date: 11 Oct 18 - 05:43 AM

I have one friend - one - who is a responsible driver in terms of mobile phone use.

The phone goes into the glove compartment at the start of every journey. If it rings, it's not checked until the destination is reached.

This should be the law. There is absolutely no need to talk on the phone while in charge of a couple of tons of heavy machinery.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Senoufou
Date: 11 Oct 18 - 06:00 AM

I don't own a phone, and my husband never ever turns his on while in the car. But we see folk talking on the blooming things all the time while out on the roads round here. Crazy.

The thing is, it seems to me that people are completely addicted to their mobiles and can't leave off texting, checking or speaking on them for more than a few minutes. One sees them in town glued to them, while crossing the road, pushing a child in a pushchair, having a snack in a café etc.

If they have to abstain while driving, it's as if they're junkies clucking for their next fix. Very disturbing.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Jon Freeman
Date: 11 Oct 18 - 06:19 AM

Re the phones. One might also be able to pull in somewhere. Not many phone calls to the mobiles in the household as the numbers are pretty much kept to family members but Pip wouldn’t (nor I if I drove at all these days) would use one on the road.

On the lorry drivers. Coming back late from Bangor on the A55 could be interesting if it coincided with heavy lorrys coming out of Holyhead. There are/were a couple of small stretches heading north that used the old road with its bends (rather than have a nice 2 way dual carriage way tunnel) and some of the drivers would hurl the artics round them. I remember Pip once being quite scared by one tailgating her and she was not hanging around herself.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Senoufou
Date: 11 Oct 18 - 08:01 AM

We have no phobile moan signal whatsoever in our village - yippee!

I wonder how we survived in the fifties. We had no telephone at all, and mobiles hadn't been invented of course.

I remember nipping down to the phone box on the corner with my two pennies, and pressed Button A when the person answered. If there was no reply, one pressed Button B and got the precious two pennies back again.
But these calls were extremely infrequent (nobody else had a phone either, so one was limited in whom one could ring)

No car either - we went everywhere on bikes. Road accidents were very rare in those days.

I should think Pip was indeed scared Jon. It's such an aggressive way for these people to drive.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Jon Freeman
Date: 11 Oct 18 - 08:31 AM

I'd not like to be without the mobiles (and on a different subject did use mine fora brief bit of tethering on its 4g yesterday as Plusnet was down hrs but on PAYG, don't use mobile data much). If nothing else, there can be emergencies and brake downs and payphones can be hard to find.

I got "stuck" in Cromer last month while on a course. I'd arranged a meeting with Pip but times changed and a stupid (uncommon on this one but..) me had failed to charge his mobile. I called in the Albion, they didn't have a pay phone, nor could any of the say 5 locals in the bar, asked by the person behind the bar be sure where you could find one in the town. Taxied home and sorted matters from there.

That one's far from a nice bit of road if you feel pressured Sen. Pip (now slower) will pull in (but not detour like you) if hassled on these Norfolk roads but on that stretch of the A55 I'd mentioned, the only left turn option would be down a cliff and into the sea! You have to keep going and wait for the normal dual carriageway to resume.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: leeneia
Date: 11 Oct 18 - 12:39 PM

My city has been invaded by Birds - small electric scooters that you rent with an app and leave at your destination. These are not tiny motorcycles; they are electrified versions of the scooter that a child pushes with his foot.

And of course, we are now seeing young people with no helmets, no seatbelts, no protection from collision, riding in traffic. The worst is the girls in skimpy outfits without even a layer of denim between them and the pavement.

Recently we pulled up on front of our house, and coming the other direction was a woman about 30 years old, riding an electric scooter, staring at her smartphone, had earphones in her ears. She seemed totally unaware of us.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Rusty Dobro
Date: 13 Oct 18 - 02:46 AM

'Road accidents were very rare in those days.' (the 50's).

Sorry, Sen, but 5,012 people were killed on UK roads in 1950, against 1,793 in 2017. The highest peace-time fatality rate was in 1966 (7.985) and the lowest in 2013 (1,713).

From my own memories of driving from the 60's onward, I believe that the average standard of driving from a regular, properly trained motorist is much better now, but the situation is complicated by much busier roads, children on mopeds, a higher proportion of drivers who learnt in countries with a different road-using culture (not a reflection on your excellent husband!), air bags, very much more powerful cars but better road signage, improved surfacing (potholes permitting), more demanding tests and MoT's, and an infinity of other factors.

In any case, there was immense carnage in largely horse-drawn Victorian traffic, with a death rate that certainly dwarfs ours, but separate records weren't kept.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Senoufou
Date: 13 Oct 18 - 03:58 AM

I'm amazed Rusty, because there weren't all that many vehicles on the roads. No-one we knew owned a car, and motorways didn't exist. Just after the War, everyone used a bicycle. One of our neighbours had a motorcycle-and-sidecar.
Our milkman had a horse-drawn milk cart (I'd rush outside with a carrot)
I can't remember seeing or hearing of a road accident, and we lived not all that far from London Airport.
Perhaps these fatal accidents in those days were on the main 'trunk roads' such as the A1.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Jos
Date: 13 Oct 18 - 04:30 AM

I lived on a bend on a busy road in the 1950s. The gatepost was demolished over and over again by drivers coming into the village too fast.
My father learned to drive before the driving test was brought in, but as far as I remember he was always a careful driver.
When I was at an age when people around me were learning to drive, it was generally assumed that six driving lessons should be enough to past the test.

Subject: RE: BS: brake checking - what do you know?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 13 Oct 18 - 05:28 AM

I suspect that there are far more road traffic accidents today, but that accidents back in the '50s and '60s, although fewer in number, were considerably more likely to result in fatalities. The huge advances in safety-engineering in motor-vehicles, and in road-design and construction (widening and straightening of roads, for instance) have made modern motoring far safer, in statistical terms, than in those past times.