BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 20 Oct 19 - 04:08 AM

Come the end of the month monies are due. Only the government, not parliament, can create legislation with a financial component.
The result of all these games is that Boris gains even more supporters for the inevitable election and parliament is seen to publicly destroy any pretense of being democratic. There will be consequences.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 20 Oct 19 - 03:23 AM

'Their' opponents, obviously.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 20 Oct 19 - 03:22 AM

The second letter is critical, but not for the reasons that may first appear. The fact the Benn Act letter is unsigned would normally cast its legal status into doubt: there is no evidence that the letter came from the PM at all = it could be some junior civil servant who sent it. So it would not, by itself, meet the requirements of the act, I suspect.

However the second letter, which was signed, says he has instructed the letter to be sent. That confirms that the 'Benn letter' is sent by the Prime Minister with the same legal weight as if he had signed it.

There is a key word in phrasing of the Act will, I think, be the crux of the Government's defence when this comes before the courts in the cases scheduled for Monday. It says:

The Prime Minister must seek to obtain from the European Council an extension of the period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union ending at 11.00pm on 31 October 2019 by sending to the President of the European Council a letter in the form set out in the Schedule to this Act

Notice it says 'by' rather than, for example, 'including but not limited to'.   They will, I think, argue that by sending the letter they have completely discharged their obligation to 'seek', since the 'by' clause defines what 'seek' means.   There opponents will argue that sending an unsigned letter is a clear breach of the intent of the Act, because unsigned documents generally have no legal significance.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 19 Oct 19 - 06:45 PM

If you don't exactly expect your hallowed prime minister to act like a big kid, just contemplate the fact that Bozza has sent his letter, as required by the law of the land, but refused to sign it...Bwahahaha!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 19 Oct 19 - 04:10 PM

He has to be stopped from bringing about an "accidental" no deal in two weeks' time or a crash-out at the end of 2020

It takes a worried man to sing a worried song..............!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3CjvyP4ed4

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 19 Oct 19 - 03:46 PM

We have at the helm a man who told us a few short months ago that no Tory government could ever contemplate a customs border in the Irish Sea. He's now hailing his advocacy of that very idea as part of his brilliant deal. He's a liar. And that's why he's suffered today's defeat. He's a liar who can't be trusted on anything. He has to be stopped from bringing about an "accidental" no deal in two weeks' time or a crash-out at the end of 2020 (there's no way in heaven or earth that a trade deal will be clinched by then). We can't trust him not to shit all over workers' rights, a matter over which his deal afforded him a convenient getout. His assurances on that score mean nothing. Why? Because he's a liar.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 19 Oct 19 - 03:31 PM

Take back control and give it to Trump.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: robomatic
Date: 19 Oct 19 - 02:39 PM

When I hear the Cummings mantra "take back control" I immediately wonder: "control of what" "take back control when you're 50 meters from the rocks in a leeward gale?" "what control had you before?"

"take back control" = "make America great again"

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 19 Oct 19 - 12:21 PM

I wonder how much of these events were wargamed by the tame machiavellian Mr Cummings.
It is not over until we hear the abbacus squawking!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 19 Oct 19 - 11:35 AM

I am hearing some mistaken analysis on BBC News about the Letwin amendment. What they are missing is that it was an amendment to the text of a bill that was not passed. And therefore it has not entered into law. Yes, it puts the Benn Act into play, but if the speaker allows the bill to be voted on Monday it is a new motion and so unaffected by Letwin. Which means the danger that Letwin was avoiding resurfaces: it would be possible to pass the deal and then not pass the following legislation leading to the no deal drop out on 31 Oct that it was designed to avoid.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 19 Oct 19 - 10:14 AM

Interesting times ahead!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 19 Oct 19 - 03:33 AM

Rudyard Kipling's "If" tends to get nominated whenever the general public is asked about its favourite poem. One couplet seems quite relevant for today:

If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;

Whatever the outcome, the result will be an 'imposter' - it will be neither as good as its supporters claim, nor as bad as its detractors. It will not settle anything - there are (probably) many years of argument and negotiations to follow, and it will cast a long shadow on the next election whenever it comes, and the Parliament that arises.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Oct 19 - 01:04 PM

If that amiable but admittedly sharp buffoon Letwin gets his amendment on the agenda tomorrow (calling for a completion of all legislation surrounding the deal before there can be any approval of the deal), as he definitely should, Johnson will have to write his letter and ask for an extension. It wouldn't be impossible to get it all done before Halloween, but at least it would mean we couldn't "accidentally" (sure...) crash out without a deal.

I'm slightly appalled that a handful of Labour MPs can consider supporting a deal that gives a bloody Tory government free rein to shit all over workers' rights. Firm up, Jezza. Anyone who doesn't vote against must lose the whip.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 18 Oct 19 - 11:06 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiUFPjulTW8

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Oct 19 - 09:35 AM

If this deal passes, we have, on paper, until the end of 2020 to get a trade deal with the EU. But I haven't heard a single source saying that that would be even remotely possible. It's going to take the best part of a year even to draw up a plan. There would be the scope to extend the extension by a year or two to conclude the trade deal, but there is already dark talk among Tory hardliners that it's the end of 2020 or it's nothing. I strongly believe that some of them are seeing this as a path to no-deal. I hope that the Labour leadership are apprising their doubting MPs of this possible direction of travel should enough of them support the deal to get it through. It looks like voting for this deal is the same thing as voting for no-deal.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 18 Oct 19 - 08:30 AM

Liberty have lost a bid to have an urgent hearing of its case as the appeal judges accepted the government's case that there was "ample time" for it to be heard before 31st October.

Some comments 'below the line' on media sites are spinning this as if the case itself has been lost, which is not the situation.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 18 Oct 19 - 06:46 AM

Steve - even if the court did find the proposed deal would against the law, I suspect the response would be to change the law rather than the deal. Since the deal has not been formally approved, providing the law was changed first there would be no conflict.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 18 Oct 19 - 06:33 AM

Even an 'Untouchable' backs the Treaty:
The Chairman of the official Britain Stronger in Europe (BSE) campaign, Stuart Rose, has come out as the latest supporter of Boris’s new Brexit deal.( A rose among the thorns…)

Speaking to the Today Programme, Rose – who led the designated campaign to Remain in the EU during the referendum – said

    “I think we’ve just got to move on, we’ve got to reflect on the pros and cons, we’ve put aside our differences, we’ve got to lean in and we’ve got to think of the bigger picture and purpose. So I support it…”

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 18 Oct 19 - 06:23 AM

Where we are now negates ben's treacherous bill.(HO HO HO)


A majority of people want the UK to respect the Brexit referendum result, according to a new poll.

The Comres survey revealed today that 54 per cent of people wanted to respect the Brexit referendum result and leave the European Union, with 32 per cent preferring to remain.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Oct 19 - 06:20 AM

Angela Merkel and Donald Tusk have both come out strongly in their own sweet ways to assert that the decisions to be made by the UK are ours alone and must not be influenced from outside. I guess that Jean Claude had an off-day yesterday. He's well known for leading with his gob...

Interesting court case in Scotland today. The deal could be illegal. I doubt it somehow but we'll see.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Oct 19 - 05:27 AM

An excellent tactic I've seen suggested in HuffPost this morning should the Johnson sellout be rejected by the Commons. Make him write his humiliating letter under the Benn act but continue to deny him his general election. Let the Tories/DUP/ERG stay bogged down for a few more months, giving them time to tear themselves to pieces. Then strike...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 07:43 PM

Anyway, it's a bad deal. Basically, Theresa May's badly tweaked. It should not be voted in just because of the fear of the beyond. There's a better chance now than ever before for no brexit if those politicians who genuinely have the interests of the country to heart vote the right way.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 07:23 PM

For Brit consideration only: I've watched "Brexitcast" two or three times recently but tonight's programme was a delight. I like Laura and Katya a lot, and they, and Adam Fleming, knock sparks off each other. All these guys are close to "sources" and they give us useful insights with an informal light touch and relaxed neutrality. More, Beeb!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 06:14 PM

Question Time as I type is just terrible. Two decent women on the panel, three bloody idiots and a mass rabble. It's a stretch, but I'm hanging on to my belief in democracy...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 03:32 PM

It seems that the EU27 have contradicted Juncker and fully left open the option of an extension. As for the DUP, I suspect that their real beef with the customs border in the Irish Sea is the psychological appearance on the tabloid maps to that effect is that is looks just a tad more like a united Ireland.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 03:25 PM

No more threads. The mods don't want any more brexit jobs and I agree. Just click on that little 'd' next to the little blue number. It doesn't matter if the thread is a million messages long if you do that: you get the latest posts straight away.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: robomatic
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 02:35 PM

NPR 'splained the deal this morning as I was wakee waking.l..
Much of the same as under Theresa except the Irish backstop gone, all Ireland is with EU and there is a customs wall between Ireland and the rest of the UK.

Was this not an obvious choice some time (years) ago? Did Boris make some vital change our contribute some unkempt hair magic that I'm missing? Or was Boris itself the magic addition? That of desperation?

Not to go all Hannah Arendt on y'all, but in this the age of Johnson and Tr-mp are we now to experience the "banality of Democracy"?

Also, it's time to start a new shorter thread....

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 02:15 PM

The choice is between this deal and not having this deal. "Not having this deal" does not mean no deal. It could mean no brexit. A vote to reject the deal triggers a request for an extension, which will be granted, especially if a tie to a second referendum can be made. No EU nation or body wants us to leave, after all. The intervention by Juncker today was most unwelcome. He's going to have us thinking that unelected bureaucrats such as he can blackmail our sovereign parliament. I'm surprised and disappointed with him. He spoke out of order. He is clearly seeking his legacy. Poor show.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: WalkaboutsVerse
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 02:08 PM

As I just tweeted, yet again - We don't just want to Brexit but to help get rid of the EU; apart from some local government, all any citizen of our world needs is their own nation & the United Nations - no G7 either; my poem, from WalkaboutsVerse, "Nationalism without Conquest" http://walkaboutsverse.blogspot.co.uk/2011/04/walkaboutsverse-84-of-230.html

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 02:07 PM

I agree that this makes the chances of Scotland voting to leave quite high. But I would only expect them t do that with a strong assurance that they could join the EU. Because there are advantages of doing that within the transition period, it is likely they will try to do that very soon - probably next year.

Let's all look forward to debates about the EU(Scotland) and England border. The proposed solution for NI would not work for Scotland.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: weerover
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 01:58 PM

The most repeated argument against a "Yes" vote in the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence was that if Scotland went independent it would lose EU membership, and that appeared to persuade many in s close vote. Scots then voted overwhelmingly "Remain" and Brexit would almost certainly result in a majority in Scotland now to favour independence. That would in due course lead to nuclear weapons being removed from Scottish soil, which would be the one positive outcome from this unholy mess.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 09:02 AM

Rees-Mogg said MPs would then vote either on a motion to back the deal, or on one to approve no deal. He explained:

The debate that follows will be a motion to either approve a deal or to approve a no-deal exit.

That debate on one or other of those motions would run for up to 90 minutes under the existing rules of this House.

=====
So it with EITHER be a motion to accept the deal OR a motion for no deal.

It will not be a motion to choose between them. This is unsurprising because there is no mechanism in Parliamentary votes to choose between alternatives.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 08:46 AM

Jacob Rees-Mogg has announced that on Saturday’s sitting, MPs will be presented with a single motion, presenting a choice between Boris’s new negotiated deal and no deal. This will be entirely compliant with the provisions of the Benn Act, as by voting against the deal MPs would have given consent to leaving on the 31st without a deal.
Genius in its simplicity…

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 08:07 AM

Donuel your post demonstrates you know not what you are talking about.
The deal is with the EU( a single body)
Any extension can be thwarted by a single country's veto.
I suggest you learn the distinction before posting.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Donuel
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 07:35 AM

All that needs to be done is for every EU country to vote yes as well as your Parliment and it is a done deal. Its a chance worth taking.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 07:32 AM

I suspect Brexit and Tory will do an under the table deal.
Labour is wandering around in the wilderness with numerous splinters up its arse from fence sitting and the Libdems have clearly demonstrated they give not a fig for democracy by talk of repealing article 50
All in all it should be an interesting election with many more honest politicians on the benches and the treacherous dwarf sent packing.

I detect a little ray of sunshine - let us hope it does not turn into a winter of discontent for the democracy loving brexiteers.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 07:23 AM

I see Farage says the new deal "is not Brexit."

That suggests when the next election comes there is a fair change the Brexiteer vote is split, despite Johnson's efforts to get as many as possible of them to back the Conservatives.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 06:54 AM

There are rumours a deal is done! We shall see!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 05:14 AM

"(For the record, I believe neither in God nor in Arlene)."
For the record - neither do I - they can all go to their own chosen hell in a handcart as far as I'm concerned
It's always comforting to see rats at each other's throats rather than yours though
Be careful out there and don't go prodding any trolls while I'm away
That's my job
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 04:05 AM

You ould cynic, Jim! ;-)

Yes, God bless Arlene. For now.

(For the record, I believe neither in God nor in Arlene).

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 03:42 AM

It appears the DUP have scuppers Johnson's plans for leaving - bless their little Orange Flag (haven't checked the details yet)
Maybe he didn't offer a big enough bung out of taxpayers money this time
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Oct 19 - 03:37 AM

From: DMcG - PM
Date: 16 Oct 19 - 02:50 PM

When in a hole, stop digging!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 16 Oct 19 - 02:50 PM

At the risk of getting told off, of course anyone can add a few rows to a spreadsheet. The complexity comes from the administrative systems you need to obtain the numbers you enter, and be able to prove them to be accurate when the tax inspector arrives.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 16 Oct 19 - 02:25 PM

Adding a few more lines to a spreadsheet is hardly a stepchange in complexity.Even the most mediocre book keeper could accomplish such a task. Each time there is a budget a company has to review it's payroll deductions and revenue liabilities and review the impact on the bottom line. That applies to a one man band or a cast of thousands.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 16 Oct 19 - 01:51 PM

Just to clarify that a bit: I realise the biggest companies that already trade outside the EU probably have such systems already and it is a relatively small increase in complexity. It is the middle size companies that trade widely but only within the EU that have the step-change in administrative complexity.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 16 Oct 19 - 01:25 PM

What happens about VAT for Northern Ireland will be a bit of a nightmare. As pointed out by many, including Nigel, the UK wants to be free to use a different system. For the sake of a name, let's call it Purchase Tax (PT), though it may differ significantly from the earlier incarnation of that.

So when I sell into the UK, I need to use PT, and when I sell into the EU, I need to use VAT.   And I also have to keep sufficient checks to ensure I do not ever accidentally apply the wrong tax to a product, o I need traceability right through from product, through warehousing and dispatch. Some components in the product may have come from an EU source, and the tax is reclaimable, and some from the UK, where whether there is any ability to reclaim is unknown.

That sounds a lot of bureaucracy added into each and every business, and VAT was always claimed to be heaviliy bureaucratic on its own.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 16 Oct 19 - 10:43 AM

Ex chess player! I can see why.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 16 Oct 19 - 09:51 AM

It's a bit difficult to fathom where Brexit can go from here
The DUP want no part of anything thet will stop their claim to being British, Varadkar cannot possibly compromise on a border (especially with an election coming up) and America has announced that there will be no pay deal with Britain if the Good Friday Agreement is in any way effected
As an ex- chess player, I'm used to stalemates that onlt involve two sides
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Oct 19 - 09:00 AM

Angela Merkel is quite rightly pointing out that a large economy will be sitting on the EU's doorstep and will be more of a competitor than a partner. She is particularly concerned about the banking sector, which the UK dominates. No-one has ever suggested that the EU won't be hurt by brexit. But she was putting the EU side. She was not focusing on the UK side, which is that we will be hurt by brexit a damn sight more than the EU will. Only hubris-ridden little Englanders who have decided to ignore every economic forecast by every economist are denying that. And even they are a dying breed, I've noticed.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 16 Oct 19 - 08:26 AM

Am I inmagining things or are remainiac MPs trying to stop the house sitting on Saturday. These are the same zealots that dragged the courts into parliamentary busines in order to reopen parliament so they could spaff away the additional time and accomplish nothing.
It is very clear that our democracy is dead until we have a general election and thin out the knaves.
Brought by courtesy of guido of course:


https://order-order.com/2019/10/16/remainers-may-stop-parliament-sitting-fears-will-pass-deal/#disqus_thread

Twould appear the remainiac Mps postions on the opening and closing of parliament would rival the Kama Sutra