BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 26 Jul 19 - 08:37 AM

Mark Steel in The Independent - a very good summation of the political cess-pit which 64,000 mostly male, mostly old, mostly rich fellow-citizens have dropped the other 64 million into.

One of the most telling sections in the piece is...

”It seems Brexit is not just driven by a desire to leave the European Union, but by people who want to scrap all regulations, cut taxes for the wealthiest and blame everything that goes wrong on foreign lands and the funny people who come from there. And leaving the EU is just one part of that project.”

And the dozy, brainwashed Leave-voters will still think they’re the clever ones....

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 26 Jul 19 - 08:22 AM

"The EU has said it will not negotiate"
The EU has already negotiated and Britain has rejected what it has come up with
Britain represents its own opinions (it's a moot point whether they are in Briain's interests) which, is some cases, adversely affects those of other countries - Ireland being the most obvious.
The consequences of a wrong decision should be obvious to all, yet Johnson declares that the backstop has to go
That is not negotiable
A call for leaving Europe, given the facts that are now available, is mindless nationalism with deadly consequences
You are the last person to be in the position to accuse others of refusing to negotiate Stanron
When have you ever been prepared to even discuss your own pronouncements - not in my recollection
JIm Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stanron
Date: 26 Jul 19 - 08:01 AM

Think of it in terms of chess moves. Whether Boris intends to negotiate or not is immaterial. The EU has said it will not negotiate. If Boris does not ask for an extension before the 31st of October we are out of the EU. That is already set in law.

To change that law, Parliament has to pass some sort of new legislation. If it looks like that is about to happen Boris can then threaten a General Election. Members may decide to defy the threat and an election is called. October 31st passes and we leave the EU by default, or Parliamentary Members don't create new legislation and again October 31st passes and we leave the EU by default.

There may well be other possible moves like a vote of no confidence, but that would result in a General Election and October 31st would pass with the same result. All Boris has to do is dance between, or fend off, the various options and we will be out. Hooray!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 26 Jul 19 - 07:22 AM

According to the Guardian

"There is a growing belief in Brusselsbthat Johnson has no intention of negotiating with the EU, but is instead driving forward with a no-deal exit with the understanding that parliament will block him and it will be necessary to call a general election.

While the cry from the wings has been "Parliament will block no deal" for a long time, that ain't necessarily so. It is by no means impossible that Parliament is unable to, leaving Johnson to call an unforced election or to struggle on trying to address any no deal issues arising with an incredibly thin majority.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 26 Jul 19 - 05:27 AM

Brexit is now a transatlantic issue
Nancy Pelosi had declared that if Britain's crashing out of Europe in any way harms the Belfast Agreement they will block any Trade Deal between Britain and the US
Jim Caarroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 26 Jul 19 - 04:26 AM

As I feared, we looks very much as if Boris Johnson is going to play being the entertainer with quips and jollying everyone along while at the next level all the authors of 'Britannia Unchained" have cabinet posts, including some regarded as the top jobs, and they will undoubtedly be pushing to make the ideas of that book the policy.

I advise people to try to borrow a copy and read it, as I did. I am reluctant to give them the royalties...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 23 Jul 19 - 05:32 PM

Yes, Mrrzy, we do now have Mr Johnson to deal with. It is very unclear what happens now, but we will hear tomorrow and over the next few days the cabinet appointments, which will be a much better guide to the future than his election. Consistency and attention are not his strong points, but it is likely a lot of the appointments will be people who are much more fixed in their view, it is likely that most of the authors of "Britannia Unchained" will end up with cabinet roles. That book gives a good indication of the approach they favour.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 23 Jul 19 - 10:41 AM

Are condolences in order? I just read about Boris being definitely in.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 22 Jul 19 - 05:27 PM

Ireland may well have problems "down the road"

Chances are they will pale into insignificance next to those of the UK..... and they furthermore will have the EU to help them out which the UK will not have.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 22 Jul 19 - 01:58 PM

Interesting to read tha one of the   Stars of Brexit got beaten up in prison for"acting like a personality"
Rough justice, maybe
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 22 Jul 19 - 10:06 AM

The facts still remain as stated. Try The Financial Times, Parliament Magazine and The Independent to name but three. Plenty more where they came from.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 22 Jul 19 - 09:34 AM

0.2 or 0.5 does not equate to a great deal. As I indicated earlier Irelands economy grew by over 8% last year.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 22 Jul 19 - 08:13 AM

Boris’s dream BrexShit...

‘Managed’ No-Deal BrexShit...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 22 Jul 19 - 06:30 AM

The facts still remain as stated. The majority of those in the know believe that leaving the EU would be a very costly mistake while most of the arguments put up by those who want to leave are false. Both those facts have been proven over and over again.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 22 Jul 19 - 04:31 AM

The facts are even simpler

The majority of economists and business leaders, those dedicated to knowing what is best for the nation, are in agreement that leaving the EU is a bad thing. The majority of arguments put by those dedicated to leaving the EU have proven to be false.

Given those facts I shall do my utmost to help those wishing to do the right thing for the nation as opposed to those doing the right thing for their own political cnareers.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 22 Jul 19 - 04:07 AM

What ‘The will of the people’ was three years ago may not be ‘The will of the people’ now. Only a blind, brainwashed fool would try to use a decision made three years ago in 2016, on the basis of the votes of a minority of the electorate, to influence policy decisions being made in 2019.

The EU Referendum was advisory only and the government is not, and has never been, required to be directed by its result - that fact was set out in the documentation of the EU Referendum Bill 2015. The sensible course of action now is to revoke A50, and for a genuinely cross-party team of MPs to be set up to investigate and report on what the UK’s future steps should be.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 22 Jul 19 - 03:45 AM

It is a fact that more people voted to leave than reemain. Just as in 1974 more people voted to remain than leave. What is in dispute is whether it is "the will of the people" when only 17 million of the 65 million that inhabit these isles thought leaving the EU was a good idea. And of those many have now changed their minds. It is also disputed that leaving the EU is wise. Not just by "the people" but by every single economic and commercial organisation. What people want is not necessarily good for them!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 22 Jul 19 - 02:38 AM

The brexit party is not the biggest party within the EU, that is EPP, closely followed by S&D.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 21 Jul 19 - 06:30 PM

So the 19 year old Steven Edginton tells us he gave the Darroch diplomatic telegrams to Isobel Oakeshott and wants "to be absolutely clear: the leak of Sir Kim's cables had absolutely nothing to do with the Brexit party."

All very interesting, but most people thought it was a Brexiteer plot, which is not the same as a Brexit Party plot. And you have a very solid Brexiteer background - which of course you are quite entitled to - which fits that possibility:


Edginton worked initially for the political website Westmonster, founded by the Brexit-backer Arron Banks, before periods as a digital strategist at the Taxpayers’ Alliance and Leave Means Leave campaign. Since April he has been employed by the Brexit party, organising its social media feeds.

(Each of these is a strongly pro-Brexit group, for those who are not aware of it: Taxpayer's Alliance sounds neutral, but it is not.)

But all in all, you are pretty irrelevant, Steven Edginton. You may have been an intermediary and liable to some charges because of that, but you are not the source of the leak, which is what is of concern.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 21 Jul 19 - 05:58 PM

Empty rubbish, as ever.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 21 Jul 19 - 05:50 PM

Bums on seats is the only game in town. As has been said innumerable times those who voted to leave the EU won the referendum. There have been a number of threads on Brexit, the total postings must be in the thousands. There is a hard core of around 7 on this forum that argue over and over and over that the result was somehow flawed and must be rerun. Brexiteers only have to point out the obvious THAT THEY WON. So why do you find this concept of majority wins so difficult to understand. For thousands of posts you have disputed the outcome. You are like recalcitrant children, or alternatively Canutes disputing celestial mechanics and still getting wet feet. You would all test the patience of a saint and that I am not.
I would also point out that it is your side arguing that 16year olds should have been allowed to vote and that the resultof the 2016 referendum is no longer valid because the oldies that voted have all died off and other equally as stupid arguments.
It is also abundantly clear that when logical argument has ripped the ground from under your feet you all resort to insults and then have the audacity to accuse me of being insulting.
Have you ever thought for one moment that sometimes your arguments are so flawed that mockery is the only response that makes you take notice

Your favourite argument is that you were not informed.
Well I was informed that leave won the referendum
I was informed that a huge majority of MPs voted for article 50
I was informed by the manifestos of both Labour and Tory in the 2017 election that we would leave the EU
I was informed by the PM innumerable times that we were leaving.
We are still in the EU
I was lied to on multiple occasions
You were told to tick a box- in or out All the information you required was on the ballot paper.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 20 Jul 19 - 08:14 AM

Bums on seats is a reasonable argument and one I was quite prepared to discuss. Why spoil it with "those enfranchised were too idle to vote" and "inhabiting a pink bubble must enforce a distorted reality"? It is that type of nonsense that gets you ignored and your posts deleted. Until you are prepared to be civil any discussion with you is pointless.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 20 Jul 19 - 06:41 AM

which way you swing does not change a majority and as I have said before, bums on seats is the only metric worth considering. Rather like leave won the Brexit referendum. Whether this was because the disenfranchised are not allowed to vote or a significant number of those enfranchised were too idle to vote is of no significance.
I suspect inhabiting a pink bubble must enforce a distorted reality where normal rules of mathematics are rewritten(perhaps with input from the abbacus) There is something sinister about it.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 20 Jul 19 - 05:08 AM

Last EU election results

Pro leave
Brexit Party. 29 seats gained
UKIP. 24 seats lost.

Not so much a massive gain as a change of name. Only 5 seats added in reality.

Pro remain
LibDem. 15 seats gained
Green. 4 seats gained.
SNP. 1 seat gained.

So, from the last EU election, the leave parties added 5 seats. The remain parties added 20.

Pretty difficult to spin that in any other way than more people swung to remain than to leave.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 20 Jul 19 - 04:46 AM

I'm the EU elections the brexit party simply took all the votes off ukip. The major swing was away from Labour and Conservative to the pro-remain LibDem, Green and SNP parties.

That no doubt is why the brexit party became the biggest party within the EU.
Your conclusions suggest the title of another Carry On film, "Carry on deluding!"

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 20 Jul 19 - 04:28 AM

I'm the EU elections the brexit party simply took all the votes off ukip. The major swing was away from Labour and Conservative to the pro-remain LibDem, Green and SNP parties.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 20 Jul 19 - 04:00 AM

For someone who declares zero confidence in forecasts, you seem quite keen on them for some things like election results.
Well you have to put them in some kind of context.
When opposing parties are polling within 10% of one another predicting outcomes is best left alone. I would suggest 10%is the intrinsic inaccuracy of polls on a sunny day.
It also depends upon the question being asked and where we stand in time relative to the outcome being polled.
To ask voting intentions for a general election today indicates nothing of significance. The same poll a week before may have more meaning.
How much accuracy you assign to a specific poll is dependent upon a variety of factors, but even when outcomes seem certain, surprises can occur. At the end of the day a poll is simply a forecast and is best regarded as having the same accuracy as a weather forecast.
A prime example would be the brexit party. It polls all over the place, seemingly impacted by the state of the tides and phases of the moon. It swept the board for the EU elections, but how likely would similar gains be in a General Election? It would be largely determined by the behaviour of the incoming PM(ie whether perceived as closet remainer or leaver) and by the perceived stance of Labour on Brexit.
The recent local elections showed huge defections from both major parties with a protest vote going to the libdems. The brexit party had no role in those elections and many MPs have defied their electorate on Brexit. Any no confidence vote forcing an election would be the equivalent of turkeys voting for christmas.
This will enable us to see our Mps in their true colours.
Will it be morality or Mammon wins the day?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 20 Jul 19 - 03:08 AM

Sorry about the italics!

There is a fundamental flaw in the survey, by the way. When people are asked who they want running the country, they naturally think of a majority government, since that is the normal situation, and the question implicitly steers them in that direction. The answer to the question 'Which person could get most support from other parties if they were leader of a minority government?' might yield a very different answer.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 20 Jul 19 - 02:59 AM

Here are two key findings in the link Iains posted. Firstly about Boris


Shifting the focus from those who voted Conservative in 2017 to those who intend to vote Conservative if a new election were called yields very little difference: 60% want him[Johnson] running the Brexit process, 49% want him running the country, and 44% want him in charge of both.


Now about Corbyn:


Figures are rosier among those that say they would vote Labour in an upcoming General Election. Six in ten (62%) would want to see Corbyn running the country, and 47% want to see him in charge of Brexit, while 44% want him running both


We have from other surveys that there is a fairly equal four way split between parties, so the chances of the Conservatives or Labour winning the next election are too close to call at the moment, if those surveys are believed. The great hope for Conservatives is that replacing May with Boris will change this, but that is yet to be proven, especially if Boris does not leave the EU come October 31.

So what those two extracts say is that Johnston has 49% support for running the country after Brexit, and Corbyn 62%.

It doesn't really support the assertion 'poor old compo barely qualifies as an also ran', does it?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 20 Jul 19 - 02:23 AM

Seems we've moved on from the shady world of Cambridge Analitica and now that that particular brick aimed at those who with Britain to remain in one piece has fallen short of its mark
Anything rather than discuss the mess Brexit has made of both Britain and the Tory Party, it would appear
LIKE THIS ?
OR THIS ?
Jim Caarroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 19 Jul 19 - 06:12 PM

For someone who declares zero confidence in forecasts, you seem quite keen on them for some things like election results.

I have no real idea how long Johnson would last as PM. It could be a long time, definitely. On the other hand if he finds himself obliged to accept an extension beyond October, his support could disappear overnight. Even without that, if he leaves with no deal and a fraction of the claimed problems come to pass in say the first six months, again he could find his support becomes thin.

For what it is worth, I am not with those who think everything will collapse the day after a no deal. It will take several months for the more serious issues to hit, though there could be a goodly number of problems in the first days or weeks. Providing we don't have severe food shortages or similar, any immediate problems will be dismissed as "teething troubles."

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 19 Jul 19 - 04:17 PM

Interesting article off the Beeb,concerning a possible General Election triggered by a no confidence vote:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49004486

Could be an intriguing outcome after a recent yougov poll where Tories want Boris for the long run, not just Brexit and poor old compo barely qualifies as an also ran.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/19/tories-want-boris-long-run-not-just-brexit
and here is a little ditty for compo to warble while sitting in his cabbage patch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DNBKKc8s0k

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 19 Jul 19 - 03:33 PM

It is a fairly standard reaction, but it is worth remembering.

The Electoral Commission said it was "disappointed".
"We will now review the full detail of the judgment before deciding on next steps, including any appeal," it said.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 19 Jul 19 - 03:06 PM

"I wonder if any resignations will emanate from this clearly unfit for purpose quango?"
Grimes won his appeal on spending - no investigation has been carried out on the fact that hs organisation has links with Cambridge Analytica, who have been ipicated in Russian interference with the Brexit vote
It appears that some patriots among us are happy to see unregulated elections on vital issues which allow outside interference in British democracy
CAMBRIDGE ANALITICA AND 'VOTE LEAVE'
MORE DIRTY TRICKS
CHAIRMAN'S APOLOGY - "DESTROYED DATA"
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 19 Jul 19 - 02:23 PM

The County Court has ruled in favour of Darren Grimes’ appeal, exonerating him of the Electoral Commission’s kangaroo court imposed fine. The Commission’s argument for their egregious fine hinged on Darren’s accidental registering as an individual campaigner rather than a group. The Court has found that this is clearly disproportionate for ticking the wrong box…
Responding to the news, Darren said that “today’s verdict is a victory against the Remain Establishment which has done all it can to try and discredit the biggest electoral victory in this country’s history.”
While the Government spent almost half a million pounds fighting him, crowdfunding aided Darren’s appeal helping to raise over £90,000 to take the fight back to the Remain establishment. The average donation was just £30…

I wonder if any resignations will emanate from this clearly unfit for purpose quango?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 19 Jul 19 - 12:56 PM

The discussion in the by-ways of Parliament is getting more and more off the wall. According to the Independent "Senior Tories are considering changing *party rules* to stop Boris Johnson facing a no-confidence vote within the first year of being prime minister, by preventing a vote of no-confidence in the leader being called until they had been in office for at least 12 months."

The Conservative party can introduce any party rule changes it likes. A confidence vote in Parliament is about whether the PM is able to command a majority of the House or not, and is typically called by the opposition. It is not under the control of the Tory party. Now, if it wants to add to the gaiety of the situation by potentially having a Tory PM who is different to the Tory Party leader they can.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 19 Jul 19 - 12:18 PM

The silliest thing about Johnson's antics with the kipper is that it perfectly illustrates one of the arguments the remainers have been making.

Our kipper supplier was based in the Isle of Man. To sell into the UK, since it is NOT a part of the UK, it has no choice whatsoever but to abide by the regulations the UK sets, unless it wants to cease trading with us. In precisely the same way, UK manufacturers will have no choice but to abide by the EU standards if they wish to sell to it. As far as that is concerned, it matters not a jot whether we are inside the EU or not. Of course, inside we can influence the regulations, whereas outside we cannot. In the UK we can, if we want, have different standards. But unless they are a strict superset of the EU ones, we can't sell to the EU.

A business could choose to have two manufacturing streams - an EU regulated one and an non-EU regulated one. Apart from the wastage arising from that, they would forever be having to prove they have not 'cross-contaminated' the streams, with all the costs that implies.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 19 Jul 19 - 11:44 AM

The swede is also known as the Swedish turnip, Russian turnip or, in Scotland, just neeps. I think anyone but the most pedantic of nitpickers just spoiling for a fight understands what Raggy meant.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 19 Jul 19 - 11:24 AM

Easy ...Haggis
Not so.
The rutabaga or swede differs from the turnip (Brassica rapa) in that it is typically larger and yellow-orange rather than white. ... In the north of England and Scotland, the larger, yellow rutabagas are called neeps or swede from folk etymology, while the smaller white turnips are called turnips.
While it is eaten all year round, haggis is particularly associated with Burns Night, when it is traditionally served with "neeps and tatties" (Scots: swede, or rutabaga and potatoes, boiled and mashed separately) and a "dram" (i.e. a glass of Scotch whisky).

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 19 Jul 19 - 11:04 AM

Easy ...... Haggis!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteglasgow
Date: 19 Jul 19 - 10:38 AM

indeed. does not go well with turnips. but then, what does?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 19 Jul 19 - 10:06 AM

Gravitas? Isn't that Swedish smoked fish?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteglasgow
Date: 19 Jul 19 - 09:47 AM

no, genuine mistake. if i was going to lie to the nation i would always choose to illustrate my lies with a haddock. other fish lack authenticity, i find, or gravitas

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 19 Jul 19 - 09:21 AM

Thanks! There is a pun in there somewhere, I am sure.
Boris. Man alive.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 19 Jul 19 - 03:24 AM

Apologies! It was Pete, not David, who referred to a haddock!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 19 Jul 19 - 03:23 AM

Mrrzy - Boris Johnson (likely our new PM) was telling lies yesterday about the EU, claiming that EU rules force producers of kippers (smoked herrings) in the Isle of Man to pack them for shipping in a certain way when, in fact, no such rule exists in the EU, and the Isle of Man is not a member of the EU.

I think David was being deliberately, amusingly obtuse with his reference to 'haddock'.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 18 Jul 19 - 06:30 PM

I googled brandishing a haddock and it came back with Tintin. What did I miss?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 18 Jul 19 - 04:03 PM

The collapse in the value of the pound since the brexit vote is just the first of the horrendous consequences.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteglasgow
Date: 18 Jul 19 - 03:02 PM

telling lies, brandishing a haddock. kissing fat, orange, racist arse - good old england!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 18 Jul 19 - 02:57 PM


Any comment about an official government department saying that it will cost an arm and a leg to the UK economy

I would expect simple denial.

Remember how the fall in the value of the pound after the result was just a correction and nothing to do with Brexit? Having seen the sterling movements since Boris/Hunt started talking up a no deal I am surprised we haven't yet been told they are nothing to do with Brexit either.