BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: The Sandman
Date: 26 Feb 19 - 04:08 AM

kAREN, There is a simple solution, the uk and ireland agree on a referendum which involves the total people of the island of ireland, the referendum is a united ireland northen ireland then gets its wish to remain in europe, the referendum is imo likely to be in favour of a united ireland.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: KarenH
Date: 26 Feb 19 - 03:27 AM

And if a hard Brexit will result in sectarian violence, then in so far as the Irish government plays a part in demanding a backstop leading to a bard Brexit, it will be the fault of the Irish government and its political choices.

I don't buy 'A nasty British big boy did it six hundred years ago and ran away' as an excuse.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: KarenH
Date: 26 Feb 19 - 03:24 AM

And you cannot blame 'history' especially some half-baked romanticised notions that once upon a time there was a united country called Ireland or whatever the Celtic word was, for modern day violence.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: KarenH
Date: 26 Feb 19 - 03:23 AM

Sorry Jim

Your posts were among my sources of information that 'sectarian violence' was likely to be an outcome of a hard Brexit. So I am aware of the risk, and you are wrong to claim I am ignorant of it.

That risk is precisely why, whatever Bonnie did nor did not intend to say, there is a chance of UK troops being deployed in the North of Ireland. Working on the assumption that the UK government has the brains to see that there is a risk of sectarian violence it makes sense for them to have 'military' and other intelligence at work monitoring those likely to instigate such violence. I hope they have.

Let's not say 'sectarian violence', let's say 'murder', car bombings, knee cappings, pub bombings, tarring and feathering and all the rest of it. And protection rackets and so on while we're at it.

And I think one of the main things that brought about a reduction in this was whichever POTUS stamped down on the US sending money to fund the Irish terrorists.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 07:03 PM

But will, hopefully, wreck the Tory party :-)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 06:12 PM

I've been opposed to referendums for at least four decades, but I've decided in extremis that a people's vote is quite literally the only way out of this morass. I'm holding my nose here, but I hope that Labour's tentative moves in that direction bear fruit. In another referendum this country will vote remain, and that is the only solution to this that won't wreck this country.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 05:58 PM

"Hard Brexit is off the table" doesn't mean that Brexit itself is off the table. Only hard Brexit. You know, the one that means leaving without a deal. Remain doesn't figure in the March 12th scenario.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 05:44 PM

Will no one rid me of these meddlesome remainiacs?
Not until you can give good news about Brexit beyond "We are leaving on 29th" which is your normal response to Raggy's requests!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 05:37 PM

Will no one rid me of these meddlesome remainiacs?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 05:28 PM

Schrödinger's Brexit... love it, Donuel.

May delays the meaningful vote. Again. I set my hair on fire (whatever's left of it that hasn't already been incinerated).

The Cooper/Letwin amendment - fingers crossed - passes (getting more likely by the day, especially now that Corbyn's on board).

Meaningful Vote comes on March 12th.

(a) May's deal is approved. Hard Brexit is off the table.
(b) May's deal is defeated. Hard Brexit is effectively off the table.
Because Cooper/Letwin deadline is the 13th.

Britain isn't left alone out in the economic cold.
Ireland doesn't tear itself apart.
Everybody eats.
I reach for the fire extinguisher and douse my hair.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 03:59 PM

That Ireland will be still part of the EU seems a pretty positive reason to me.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Donuel
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 02:38 PM

Brexit has an equivalence in quantum mechanics. Right now there is a super imposition of all states/possibilities. We can not know the position or outcome. No matter how radical the outcome it will become orthodoxy in time and you will know the true position you are in.

Psychologically
When this baby Brexit is born it will slowly develop. You will go through a phase where Britain will think Brexit is still a joke like peek a boo game because you have not learned object permanency yet. A true position will emerge whether there are any benefits as self awareness develops.

Some forecasts of disasters or legendary traffic jams in the Chunnel have only helped to make the crises to become more manageable.

As orthodoxy = radicalism + time you will learn your worst fears and best hopes will only be understood after a full year passes.

At this late date I see this baby is coming for good bad or indifferent. imo

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 02:37 PM

" a move towards a united Ireland "
I would much rather this happened for a positive reason rather than an 'any port in the storm one though
The on thing about this is that Brexit has enabled the different groups to unite in contrast to the UK where once united party has shattered itself into smithereens taking the rest of Britain with it.
Having to wait for a plumber and putting up with 60mph fog does have its compensations
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 02:31 PM

Corbyn has just said if both May's proposed deal and Labour's are rejected, then Labour willl back a second referendum.

There is some doubt as to what the options would be that it would support, but one step at a time...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 02:06 PM

Karen, re-read my last post, and read up on some history. I already said that the armed-forces remark was rhetorical. Of COURSE they're not going to. I am not worried about that, so don't misrepresent me.

May already agreed to the backstop (a fallback measure to prevent a closed border in the event of hard Brexit) in her initial deal. Now she want to undo it, effectively going back on the promises she made in her own deal. Ireland isn't the bad guy for needing to protect itself from the risks of internal violence - so it's *not* about the British army, OK?

May now wants to change the deal she herself presented and signed, to appease the hardliners in her party. And the open border was already enshrined in the Good Friday Agreement, a treaty that Britain signed. Taking away the Backstop will be disastrous for Ireland on both sides (and the North is, after all, in the UK). Ireland didn't create this mess. Look at the bigger picture, get the facts straight, and please stop cherry-picking.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 02:01 PM

I think thats right Jim, a move towards a united Ireland is one of the few, perhaps the only, upside of brexit.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 01:38 PM

"Because it is their insistence on this 'backstop' that seems to be driving the EU position."
Extraordinarily lack of understand at what a hard Brexit would mean to Ireland, including the reopening of sectarian violence
Brexit is already threatening Irish industry (North and South) and costing billions to guard against
As Varadkar said - Brexit is Britain'e decision and it is their responsibility to work it through without constantly passing the buck to those they are laready damaging
One of the best things that could come out of this circus is the removing of partition - at least everyone would save on the future cost of body-bags
Jim carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 01:18 PM

What??? Thats an extraordinary interpretation. It is May's insistence on being outside the customs union which creates the need for the backstop. Hardly reasonable to blame the Irish.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: KarenH
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 01:09 PM

The Irish Government, then, is in effect, bringing about the hard Brexit that they would appear not to want? Because it is their insistence on this 'backstop' that seems to be driving the EU position.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: KarenH
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 01:06 PM

OK and thanks.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 12:30 PM

Karen the only expertise I would claim to have in life is the ability to breathe.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 12:02 PM

You'll find it less confused if you don't quote out of context. I wrote:

In addition to the financial aspects, [a no-deal Brexit] will almost certainly return us - on both sides of the border - to violence and personal endangerment. (And is Britain really prepared to send in armed forces?) No Irish government is going to sit still for that. Why should they put their own citizens at risk?

In other words, the question about armed forces is parenthetical - and rhetorical. The not-sitting-still referred to the dangers of a hard border, in light of the pressure May is putting on Ireland to limit/weaken the Backstop - which is the only thing preventing it, if there's a hard Brexit. A closed border, sooner or later will result in violence here, on both sides of it. Maybe I didn't make it clear (I was also writing in light of my previous post a few messages down.) But a hard Brexit is looking increasingly likely, and the domino effect is all too inevitable.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: KarenH
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 10:47 AM

Iains

I leave expertise on wargaming to you. I was just trying to unpick a post that I found a bit confused.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 07:42 AM

"it's well established that there are plans to use the army post-Brexit in the UK if necessary."

Governments plan for all sorts of contingencies and actually wargame some. The US had plans to invade Canada
to plan for something is not necessarily to mean it will happen.

Corbyn wargamed for a catastrophic drop in the value of the pound, should he become premier. The argument over wheter that was merely precautionary or mandatory I leave to others!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: KarenH
Date: 25 Feb 19 - 05:30 AM

"Is Britain prepared to send in armed forces? No Irish government is going to sit still for that."


I very much doubt if 'Britain' is contemplating invading the Irish Republic, the Irish government has no need to sit/stand/worry about that.


Regarding deploying UK troops in Northern Ireland, if the need arises I see no problem, it's well established that there are plans to use the army post-Brexit in the UK if necessary. I sincerely hope that there are military/security service staff in the North of Ireland already as there have been mutterings about nationalist violence and this would seem to be a sensible precaution.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 24 Feb 19 - 04:26 AM

Karen I suspect your dictionary is in severe need of revision!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 24 Feb 19 - 03:46 AM

According to the Sunday Times:

A vicious cabinet war erupted last night over a plot by senior ministers to delay Brexit, as Theresa May looked certain to shelve plans for a Commons vote on her deal this week.

=======

This ability of one person to manipulate Parliament by making promises to assuage rebellions at that time, only to renage on them.later is proving to be a major flaw in our system. Whether or not May does so this time, she has done it in the past. One the Brexiteers will agree with: since the Speaker selects which amendments are called and which are not, that role has a tremendous power vested in one individual.

I suspect whatever happens we might see motions over the next few months trying to give Parliament more powers rather than individuals.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: KarenH
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 06:36 PM

For the benefit of American readers, a 'wazzock' is a root vegetable grown mostly in Cornwall and frequently fed to pigs.


A 'pillock' is a sort of medication, in solid form, usually taken with water. As opposed to a capsule or capsulock.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 05:32 PM

Sorry, I didn’t realise I’d hit Submit... that was not intended as any kind of sarky “response”. (Damn iPad keyboards.) Whoever the biggest is, Ireland is part of a 27-nation economic bloc, and Britain will be left out - I believe struggling - on her own. I cannot tell you how much that thought breaks my heart.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 05:22 PM

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 05:19 PM

Ireland is her biggest trading partner. ?????????

The UK is the second major destination for Irish exports 12%
but exports to Ireland represent 5.5$ of UK exports and ranks 10th as a Trading partner of the UK and has generated a trade surplus annually since 1990.
I suspect your phrasing is back to front. This makes a significant difference,

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 05:12 PM

The UK is in no position to make things difficult for Irish or continental trucks carrying food to the UK. We need to eat. It would be similar to the Venezualan aid convoy. Except that we can pay if the food can get through. May seems determined to hold a gun to our heads over a no deal brexit, is she prepared to try to starve her population into submission?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 05:04 PM

Bonnie, my tongue was firmly in my cheek.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 04:52 PM

It gives me no joy to write this.

A most important point, there, so thanks for raising it. Those who oppose the no deal Brexit are being accused of gloating, and no doubt will be even more if there are problems.

I will take no pleasure at in anything that goes wrong. I, and I believe most people on the remain or softest possible Brexit side, want all the people of this country to do well and will take no pleasure in any difficulties that come their way.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 03:57 PM

Economically a hard Brexit will hit Britain severely too. Ireland is her biggest trading partner. If the UK leaves with no deal, she will be obliged to replace each one from scratch, with every nation individually. And the USA is currently unpredictable in that sphere, so no assurances there. With Europe acting as a bloc, that's not a secure place to be, as numerous British fiscal experts have warned. So it cuts both ways. This impasse is not chiefly about political ideals.

The real issue in Ireland, north and south, is less Brexit-pro-vs-con (though the North did vote to remain) as the spectre of Brexit with no deal. In addition to the financial aspects, it will almost certainly return us - on both sides of the border - to violence and personal endangerment. (And is Britain really prepared to send in armed forces?) No Irish government is going to sit still for that. Why should they put their own citizens at risk?

They're only holding May to what she already consented to: i.e., a backstop. The Good Friday Agreement was also a mutually signed treaty, parts of which are now being blithely disregarded. I don't know why May feels entitled to go back on her word, nor where the sense of injury comes from. Neither Europe nor Ireland kicked the UK out. It kicked itself out.

I'm a dual British/American citizen, resident in the Republic of Ireland for longer than either my native country or my naturalised one - both of whom I love. It gives me no joy to write this.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 03:22 PM

"Is a pillock of a higher order than an idiot, or is it simply the gormless insults of a bereft wazzock?"

Hilarious coming, as it does, from the most aggressive, insulting poster on this forum.

Medice, cura te ipsum.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 03:06 PM

ut if the UK leaves without a deal, all changes and drivers will be expected to carry a green card when in mainland Europe and Ireland. They are likely to be issued by an insurance company for free, but the industry is warning it could take up to a month to obtain one, so if no deal happens and you're booked to go away with the car this Easter, you will need to act fast.

This can of course be reciprocated for any EU vehicles traversing the UK. Yet another expense to be picked up by Irish trucks. Typical Guardian to give half the story.
Still looking on the bright side,the lousy rag will go belly up hortly. By the number of times it's online presence is begging for dosh it would appear its lefty business model suffers from the usual problem of having largely squandered other people's money.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 02:56 PM

. I'm guessing that there should be a word, or phrase, between 'all' and 'changes'. But in the absence of such, it makes no sense.

It makes perfect sense, since 'changes' there is a verb, not a noun. Using a slightly different tense you would have "without a deal, all is changed and drivers will be expected.."

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 02:46 PM

Is a pillock of a higher order than an idiot, or is it simply the gormless insults of a bereft wazzock?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 02:45 PM

"Of course, reunification also needs the consent of the Republic of Ireland, which can only be obtained by putting it to the vote here"
We....lllll
Partition was a part of The Empire, which is long gone - it was supposed to be temporary anyway
That being said - thas all but a majority for ending partition here for several years now and I have little doubt that the idea of a hard border would shift the balance convincingly
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 02:36 PM

Nitpicking again Nigs? Never let us down, do you?

Pillock.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 02:32 PM

From Backwoodsman's link:
Currently, a driver of a UK-registered car is allowed to drive anywhere in the EU, the EEA (European Economic Area), Switzerland and Serbia, and not have to carry a green card that proves you have insurance cover.

But if the UK leaves without a deal, all changes and drivers will be expected to carry a green card when in mainland Europe and Ireland. They are likely to be issued by an insurance company for free, but the industry is warning it could take up to a month to obtain one, so if no deal happens and you're booked to go away with the car this Easter, you will need to act fast.

Typical Guardian: But if the UK leaves without a deal, all changes and drivers will be expected to carry a green card when in mainland Europe and Ireland. That sentence makes no sense (except to Guardian readers). I'm guessing that there should be a word, or phrase, between 'all' and 'changes'. But in the absence of such, it makes no sense.

The second paragraph says that drivers will be 'expected to carry a green card'. This does NOT mean that they will be 'required' to carry one. Again, Guardian readers may have a different understanding of the English language.

I know that there are those here who think that quoting from The Guardian helps put their case forward, but it appears that those who write for that paper are lacking in their understanding of the English language.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 02:01 PM

A hard brexit will hit Ireland severely. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world, the Irish 40th. Therefore there is much less resilience. Additionally Ireland prides itself on a knowledge economy largely founded on the presence of multinationals in the country. Should the threatened tax harmonization occur within the EU their raison d'être
may founder on quicksand. This is a double vulnerability further magnified by the UK being the biggest export market and UK food being 40% of Irish supermarket goods(roughly) and UK ferry ports acting as
entrepôt ports for Irish trade to and from the EU. Varadkar is doing his country no favours by trying to act the bogeymen thwarting British attempts to extricate themselves from the disaster zone of the EU.
The demographics indicate reunification is a likely outcome at some future point, providing it is seen as of economic benefit to the North.
Is a free health service more of a draw than a political ideal, as far as the majority in the north are concerned? (To give but one example)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 12:04 PM

> You get the DUP to agree to that and I'll buy you a pint!!

Raggy, the DUP can say what it likes. According to my understanding of the Good Friday Agreement, the call for a border poll doesn't require British Parliamentary consent, just the advice of the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland (in the absence of Stormont), if he or she has cause to believe that it's the popular will. It's a government issue, not a Parliament one, so all the PM has to do is accept the judgment of the S of S, and proceed to put a border poll in motion. And if the PM refuses, it probably wouldn't happen. But if it gets denied in the event of a hard Brexit, seven kinds of hell will probably break loose, for financial reasons more than political ones.

[The DUP's] insistence in remaining part of the UK has never featured strongly in people's minds; rather it has been a case of economic security... Brexit has driven a Chieftain Tank through that one.

It'll drive a tank through the Protestant farmers/small businesses vote too, when election time rolls around, which the DUP would do well to remember. As Jim has indicated, people are more worried about being able to feed their children and keep up mortgage payments than ideologies.

Of course, reunification also needs the consent of the Republic of Ireland, which can only be obtained by putting it to the vote here, i.e. a referendum. If both nations then find for reunification, the legislation is already in place (AFAIU) to implement it.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 11:07 AM

"Any GOOD news about BrexShit?"
It looks like it might be put on the back boiler for a while and it has brought the Tory Party crashing in flames
EVERY CLOUD BACCY - EVERY CLOUD !
jIM

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 10:43 AM

There are some that have concluded the brexit bus will be hijacked by the EU and used to run over Mr Varader.

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/irishvoice/united-ireland-fix-brexit-britain

In an EU heading into recession the pain of a hard border will be keenly felt by both the German and French economies and should reunification occur, can the republic afford the 19 billion price tag.


Actions have consequences and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar as the EU's useful idiot may find his shelf life limited.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 10:24 AM

Fun for travellers to Europe in the event of a 'No-Deal' BrexShit on 29/3.

Didn't see any of that on the side of that friggin' red bus!

Any GOOD news about BrexShit?

Thought not.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 10:12 AM

"You get the DUP to agree to that and I'll buy you a pint!!"
The DUP are no longer in a majority and will need to rely on other parties to pass legislation when Stormont finally reopens
Their insistence in remaining part of the UK has never featured strongly in people's minds; rather it has been a case of economic security to leave things as they are - Brexit had driven a Chieftain Tank through that one so, if it ever comes to a vote it is quite likely that a United Ireland will walk it
Crazy situation - a party that has to rely on support of other parties in the Six Counties is now propping up the British Government - 'Yes Prime Minister' couldn't have made this up - let alone 'Spitting Image'
A feckin' laughing stock - the lot of them
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 09:21 AM

You get the DUP to agree to that and I'll buy you a pint!!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: The Sandman
Date: 23 Feb 19 - 09:17 AM

a referndum in the island of ireland on a united ireland?