BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 10 Feb 19 - 06:51 PM

From: Raggytash - PM
Date: 10 Feb 19 - 02:22 PM
Nitpicking once again Nigel.
Do you have anything positive to tell us about Brexit.
I know I have asked this question on many many occasions, I have yet to receive a direct answer.

Requiring accuracy in the intentions of posters is not 'nitpicking', but if that is the best you can do to answer criticism of previous comments I will accept that you cannot add to the discussion.

As to the benefits of Brexit, I have posted comments about the advantages of buying foodstuffs without the tariffs imposed by the EU (to protect their own providers) but you have obviously either not read those comments, or chosen to ignore them.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 10 Feb 19 - 06:55 PM

Nope. The problem is all yours. Nighty night, Nigletpicker.

Good night.
I assume you have forgotten your intention to use peoples real names, obviously a temporary resolution.

If the best you can do is use insulting names, and avoid discussing the matter in hand, clearly you have learnt from your pupils, rather than the other way around.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 02:22 AM


As to the benefits of Brexit, I have posted comments about the advantages of buying foodstuffs without the tariffs imposed by the EU

I can't speak for anyone else, but I have not explored that here because it requires quite elaborate and disputed economics. The ERG's favourite economist, Professor Minton, advocates getting rid of tariffs entirely, and is quite content that theis would lead to the demise of UK farming etc. Which, since it limits our options, is actually quite bad in terms of sovereignty as we would be limited to picking between whatever deals others would be prepared to offer. Almost everyone else thinks letting our local farming collapse is a really bad idea. Some people argue that lowering tariffs leaves more money in people's pockets, which is a good thing. But if they can only spend it on foreign goods that is a net flow of resources out of the country, which is not a good thing at all.

I may be the only person in world who thinks this, but it seems credible to me that if we want to reduce climate change we need to encourage people to buy locally and that tariffs on imports will eventually be one of the tools we use to help manage this.

So: I regard reduction of tariffs not as a 'good' but as 'uncertain benefit'.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 03:28 AM

By "almost everyone else" I of course meant "almost every other economist." I am sure a lot of people who are not economists think it as well, but it was the former I meant.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 03:33 AM

Corbyn has become a figure of hate and fear for the establishment
If he wasn't he'd be ignored - now he is being targetted by extremist foreign government who have attempted to infiltrate British politics in order to smear him and halt his growing influence - cant wait till Trump tries to build another wall to keep him out
He must be doing something right (or do I mean 'left'?)
   
Nigel
"I assume you have forgotten your intention to use peoples real names, obviously a temporary resolution."
Just as you have forgotten to respond to answers to your questions
You asked, I answered - the rest is silence......
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 03:43 AM

But they are 'experts', DMcG, and the Brain-of-Little-Britain-types who voted Leave are "Fed up of experts".

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 04:01 AM

If tariffs drop the only people who will benefit will be the ones current!y making profits. The importer will benefjt, the wholesaler, the retailer but when we get down to the consumer you can get that the price will remain the same.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 04:37 AM

But they are 'experts', DMcG, and the Brain-of-Little-Britain-types who voted Leave are "Fed up of experts".

I find it useful to put such quotes in context. From the same Guardian article we have the gem:
Prakash Loungani at the IMF analysed the accuracy of economic forecasters and found something remarkable and worrying. “The record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished,” he said.

His analysis revealed that economists had failed to predict 148 of the past 150 recessions.

A rational person would thus take the pontifications of economists with a large pinch of salt.
Forecasting is more an art than a science. Why else did all the referendum forecasts become so unglued?
Statistically to be fed up with, and ignore experts, keeps a person in closer touch with reality.
I wonder how true this would be for the religion of climate change?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 04:58 AM


A rational person would thus take the pontifications of economists with a large pinch of salt.

True. But it would be irrational to then only eat salt...


Economists predictions are one factor among many to take into account. That the evidence says they are bad at predicting recessions does not means they should be disregarded in general. Babies and bathwater, as the saying has it.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 06:26 AM

UK economic growth slowest since 2012

We were asked earlier to wait for these figures before saying the growth was poor. We have done so.

"Ben Brettell, senior economist, at Hargreaves Lansdown said "There's little doubt Brexit uncertainty is responsible for the disappointing figures, though concerns over global trade will have also played a part."

Come now, you under-estimate the world class doubters you are delaying with. They are experts at doubting such things.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 06:28 AM

Well in theory the 4th quarter GDP results are due today. Then we can see how far up the garden path Carney has taken us with his growth? estimates.
It is worth pointing out that Germany is expected to avoid an official recession by the skin of its teeth(results 14/02)
You need the big picture in order to draw meaningful conclusions,and in much of the world the favourite pencil out of the box is red.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 06:31 AM

Hardly a recipe for growth!


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/18/why-are-global-markets-falling-and-are-we-heading-for-recession

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 06:44 AM

From the font of truth and accurate reporting!


https://order-order.com/2019/02/11/uk-grows-1-3-2018/

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 12:04 PM

At least one MP can see BrexShit for what it is, and isn't afraid to say so...

https://www.facebook.com/242623503265050/posts/308298963364170?sfns=mo

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 12:11 PM

Before anyone says 'Facebook' as a means of dismissal, the speech is easy to find in Hansard.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 12:35 PM

Here is ine of Corbyn's speeches. I do like consistency off a politician!

https://talkradio.co.uk/news/exclusive-jeremy-corbyn-called-european-union-be-defeated-explosive-rally-speech-19021129836

What a valianr brexiteer! But he ducks and dives and bends and twists and the message varies north and south of the river!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 01:15 PM

Investment down, growth the worst for nine years and even a Tory chancellor is blaming brexit uncertainty. And nothing happening. No trade deals and Liam Fox wobbling sweatily. Anyone for £350 million a week?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 02:33 PM

I'd prefer the bus. I do not trust fiat currency!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 03:30 PM

The thing that gets consistently ignored by those yammering on about how being in a customer union with the EU gets in the way of getting trade deals with other countries in farflung parts of the world is that, when it comes to getting favourable trade deals, the UK on its own is in a far weaker position that the EU. It just hasn't got the clout. Much of the time it will be about knuckling down and accepting what is offered, however bad.

This is referred to as "regaining sovereignty and independence."

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 07:46 PM

And the money we're taking back control of is ebbing away fast. And the borders we're taking back control of mysteriously appear to be unable to stop people from moving out. And the laws we're taking back control of will soon all be the same laws we'll have to stick with anyway (it won't hurt because they're all good laws anyway, and in any case they form a tiny proportion of all the laws the country embraces). And we'll have to stick to any new EU laws regarding trade, only this time we'll have no say in them.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 03:49 AM

Remarkable programme on Irish television on Brexit last night which included powerful interviews with Alistair Campbell and the father of two of the Omagh bombing victims
The discussion centred around the possible effects Brexit would have on The Good Friday Agreement and a return to violence
It finished with statements from businessmen and farmers in the audience (from both sides of the border) outlining the effects this fiasco has had on their businesses and possible future effects
Campbell, who I have always detested, spoke magnificently and responded to every question clearly and honestly (not bad for a politician)
Perhaps they should have asked LORD SNOOTY instead - better for Britain's image !!!
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 05:42 AM

Lord Snooty:
He is the blue passport in human form, the red telephone box made flesh, the Royal Yacht Britannia in a pinstripe suit; a reminder of a world in which traditional Britons didn’t have to apologise for being who they were and bow before the gods of multiculturalism, feminism and health and safety.”
“He is more than just the leader of a faction or a cult. He is also the embodiment of the average Conservative Party member. A recent survey by Queen Mary University of London painted the fullest picture to date of Tory members. Some 44% are over 65 and 71% are men. They think austerity has been a good thing. They believe in traditional values and harsh prison sentences. They love Brexit—and not just any old Brexit, but the full-strength sort, leaving both the customs union and the single market."

A fine fellow of a man! Naturally superior to the scruffy git Corbyn.
The eloquent Rees Mogg has very clear consistent views concerning Brexit. Does Corbyn have a view of brexit that holds for more than the next soundbite? Such a disreputable wretch!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 07:29 AM

From: Steve Shaw
Date: 11 Feb 19 - 01:15 PM
Investment down, growth the worst for nine years

"Growth worst for 9 years". Isn't it strange that that period of 9 years (only) just covers the periods of the Conservative-led governments.
maybe the quote deliberately avoided saying "Growth worst since we had a Labour government".

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 07:51 AM

The recession of 2008/2009 is well documented as being the result of an unfettered financial market worldwide and not of the last Labour government. There was a lot not to like about Gordon Brown but you cannot lay a world crisis on his doorstep.

GDP is the accepted measure of economic growth. This administration have never achieved the high that Blair and Brown did in 2000 and with their efforts to trash the economy they never will. Try getting the facts for yourself, Nigel, instead of accepting the spin of your Tory betters.

GDP figures from 2000 to 2017

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 07:59 AM

Isn't the constant attempting to lay the blame the worldwide financial crisis - caused by the recklessness and mismanagement of, in the main, US financial institutions, mirrored here and elsewhere by others - at the door of the last Labour government a clear indication of the fundamental dishonesty of the Tory Party and its sycophants?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 08:10 AM

And, more importantly, a way of not talking about the impact of Brexit and the negotiations for it.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 08:11 AM

In 17 auctions, Mr Brown as Chancellor of the Exchequer sanctioned the sale of 395 tonnes of gold. Figures released by the Treasury show that the total proceeds from the sales was around $3.5billion. According to a Parliamentary answer, if the gold was sold last month, on December 15, it would have raised $10.5billifor you!on.Jan 7, 2009.

That's Labour for you!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 08:32 AM

"Growth worst since we had a Labour government".
Long since expecting a return response Nigel, but the statement is based on statistics not who was in charge and they are even carried by the Conservative Daily Express, Daily Mail and the Vonservative mouthpiece, The Daily Telegraph
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 08:47 AM

The recession of 2008/2009 is well documented as being the result of an unfettered financial market worldwide and not of the last Labour government. There was a lot not to like about Gordon Brown but you cannot lay a world crisis on his doorstep.

GDP is the accepted measure of economic growth. This administration have never achieved the high that Blair and Brown did in 2000 and with their efforts to trash the economy they never will. Try getting the facts for yourself, Nigel, instead of accepting the spin of your Tory betters.

GDP figures from 2000 to 2017

Talking of 'spin'. This administration may not have reached the 'high' of 2000, but looking at your graph, neither did Labour. This idea of picking a single year to make the comparison with is misleading.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 09:49 AM

Cheers, Jim. You beat me to it in putting Nigelpicker right.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 10:58 AM

Thanks Baccy
"Vonservative mouthpiece, The Daily Telegraph"
Now there's a typo worth remembering - wonder if we can look forward to a Westminster Fire like the Reichstag one !!
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 11:12 AM

As expected, no answers from our resident Tories - 'whataboutery' from one, and the usual nitpicking from the other. Clearly students of the Theresa May Method of Answering Questions - i.e. ignore the question and try to change the subject.

What a shower!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 12:01 PM

This idea of picking a single year to make the comparison with is misleading.

And blaming the Labour government for a world recession caused primarily by dodgy banking practices isnt?

It was you who started trying to compare the current Tory disaster with past Labour governments, Nigel. Don't start backtracking now just because some awkward facts have got in the way!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 01:00 PM

Who was blaming Labour for the global recession of 2008/09?
The comparative high point of 9 years ago (although GDP growth has been higher in between) was soon after that recession. The global recession (of 2008/09) cannot take all the blame in the fall of GDP growth.
In the link you gave for GDP figures from 2000 to 2017 there was a downward trend from a peak in 2000 before that recession hit.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 01:12 PM

Past performance has sweet FA to do with brexit anyway. The current low has everything to do with it. Nice try at deflection but don't worry. You are not the only one who knows they are wrong about leaving the EU but is now unable to admit it.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 01:16 PM

In a perhaps vain attempt to drag people back into the present day rather than discussing the financial crash or Brown's gold dealings, here is something about Brexit. Remember that is what we are discussing?

It seems Grayling's statement that no taxpayers' money has been spent in dealing with the Ferry Company With No Ships is being challenged by carefully ignoring all the costs involved apart from dosh directly paid to the company.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 01:20 PM

The ONS has released its first estimate of GDP growth for 2018 Q4 at 0.2%, giving an initial figure of 1.3% growth for the year. A far cry from the recession that the Treasury, Bank of England and IMF were all predicting before the referendum…

Growth is sluggish across Europe, particularly in Italy and Germany – the UK is still comfortably in the middle of the road, with the European Commission itself putting the UK on a par with France and the Eurozone average for its 2019 forecast.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 07:06 PM

Past performance has sweet FA to do with brexit anyway. The current low has everything to do with it. Nice try at deflection but don't worry.

Good. It wasn't the brexiteers on this thread who brought up the fact that GDP growth is at a nine year low. So you accept that it is FA to do with the Brexit debate. Please advise your associated leavers of that view.
"The current low" is only a 'low' if it is compared to historic rates of GDP growth. If past performance has nothing to do with it, then it becomes pointless to discuss it.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 12 Feb 19 - 07:27 PM

Hmm Nigel. The poster said that the current low has everything to do with it. You admit as much in your post.

Once again (and again) you seek to deflect the discussion.


PS. Any GOOD news about Brexit yet?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 13 Feb 19 - 06:32 AM

Two gems from Guido. The man with a finger on the pulse:

https://order-order.com/2019/02/13/inflation-falls-two-year-low-despite-brexit/

Tsk, Tsk!


https://order-order.com/2019/02/13/robbins-reveals-dishonesty-of-governments-stance/

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 13 Feb 19 - 08:06 AM

Ford step up preparations to move production out of Britain

Thanks for trashing our economy, prospects and way of life, brexiteers.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 13 Feb 19 - 09:36 AM

No gain without pain!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 13 Feb 19 - 10:23 AM

Trimble has mounted a legal challenge against the border issue - another £billion bung in the offing, I think
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 13 Feb 19 - 10:44 AM

But pain is not evidence of gain.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 13 Feb 19 - 11:01 AM

I'm sure the workers whose livelihoods will go down the toilet will be very comforted by those sentiments expressed above.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 13 Feb 19 - 11:17 AM

It's the true spirit of Brexiteers Backwoodsman, in truth they don't give a flying **** about anyone except themselves.

The comment you refer to is clear proof of this.

And the really stupid thing is that they don't think any of this will impact on them, despite their outgoings increasing over and above what could be expect due to inflation.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 13 Feb 19 - 11:40 AM

And, of course, the Brexit-Muppets have still to tell the rest of us what this mystical 'gain' will consist of (apart from 'taking are cuntry back').

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Feb 19 - 01:12 PM

You want some good brexit news? Well yertis, courtesy of a chap posting a comment to a Guardian piece (the one about Theresa May's policy on mouldy jam):

As Rome burns by a Tory flame thrower; and Ian Blackford’s laser like critique of May’s rhetorical guff, Brexit pain is clearly for the little people only while the elite ship off and ship out:
- UK has rolled over just £16bn out of £117bn trade deals – 13% success rate, nice one Foxy, Geeza job, a’can do that….
- Anti-terror checks deliver fresh Brexit threat for UK hauliers.
- Targeted no-deal Brexit ads are funded opaquely, yet the government has failed to bring in new laws – I wonder why?
- The Dutch government has said it is in talks with more than 250 companies about moving their operations from the UK to the Netherlands before Brexit.
- As the GB pound tanks on the international currency markets exiting Europe with a no deal Disaster Capitalist are set to swoop on Brexit Britain and seize assets of indebted UK companies and Public Sector organisations.
- The UK’s trade with Japan will revert to World Trade Organisation tariffs in the case of a no-deal Brexit.
- The Department for International Trade (DIT) told business leaders this week that time was running out for Britain to roll-over trade deals with about 60 countries the EU has free trade arrangements with,
- Boris Johnson suggests that leaving the EU will allow us to dismantle green standards for electrical goods and environmental impact assessments.
- Iain Duncan Smith asks for the removal after Brexit of the carbon floor price, which has more or less stopped coal-burning in the UK.
- With Liam Fox is demanding the destruction of food and environmental standards as the price of the trade deal he desperately seeks with the US.
- Jacob Rees-Mogg has proposed that we accept “emission standards from India”. “We could say, if it’s good enough in India, it’s good enough for here.”
- Brexit Snowflakes melt in huge numbers causing widespread gushing of crocodile tears due to the heat from Donald Tusk.
- UK financial sector has shifted at least £800 billion ($1 trillion) worth of assets out of UK into the EU because of Brexit, with consequential losses in tax receipts to HMT.
- Britain’s economy is contracting – James Knightly of IGN.
- Brexit's vice-like grip is hurting services industry -Duncan Brock at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply.
- Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) plunges to a 2 ½ year low due to Tory Brexit shambles.
- 200 000 British applied for Irish passports in 2018 to retain EU citizenship.
- Tory refused six times to answer a question about what was on offer to Nissan.
- Cold war plans revived to move Queen to safe location away if unrest follows no deal.
- Nissan shelving plans to build new X-Trail in UK.
- Government officials are preparing to deal with “putrefying stockpiles” of rubbish.
- One in three UK firms plan for no-deal Brexit relocation – IOD.
- More than one in 10 British businesses have already set up operations outside the UK.
- British car manufacturing investment plunges by 50%
- Food retailers now tell us we are 9 meals away from anarchy.
- Royal Bank of Scotland to transfer a third of clients and assets worth billions to Amsterdam.
- Barclays to move £170bn to Dublin over no-deal Brexit fears.
- Media companies (Discovery; Comcast; NBC) have moved staff and broadcast licenses out of the UK.
- Five of the largest banks transferring 750 billion euros ($857 billion) of assets to Frankfurt.
- Unilever to consolidate its headquarters in Rotterdam, and not in London.
- HSBC moving 1000 jobs from London to Paris, where it will set up its EU headquarters.
- UBS to move 1000 jobs from London to EU offices, including Frankfurt.
- 'May can no longer be trusted': Heavyweight European press condemns PM
- NHS trusts 'could run out of medical supplies' without Brexit deal. – Birmingham Hospital Chief
- British retirees in EU will lose free healthcare under no-deal Brexit. – DoH Select Committee
- UK personal insolvencies hit seven-year high. – Insolvency Service
- Corporate insolvencies are likely to continue to rise in 2019. – Menzies LLP
- European Banking Authority from London to Paris.
- European Medicines Agency relocates from London to Amsterdam.
- Moneygram will move its EU headquarters from London to Brussels.
- Dyson to Singapore.
- Rees-Mogg to Dublin with two portfolios.
- Farage to Germany with passports for his sons.
- Lawson holed up in France.
- Airbus UK about to fly out from UK.
- Jim Ratcliffe, Britain’s richest man, reportedly moving to Monaco for tax purposes.
- Panasonic moving its European HQ from the UK to The Netherlands.
- Sony moving its European HQ from London to The Netherlands.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 13 Feb 19 - 01:23 PM

Yebbut weer gettin are cuntry back...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 13 Feb 19 - 01:48 PM

Yeah Steve, but don't forget - "No gain without pain", and "It's a price worth paying". :-(