BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 05 May 19 - 08:47 AM

Neither May nor Corbyn will carry their parties if they try to deny us this democratic opportunity. I think that you and I would both demand that the elections take place, whilst hoping for radically different outcomes from them.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 05 May 19 - 05:26 AM

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/camcalc_20170428_pollerror.html

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 05 May 19 - 05:18 AM

There is always a problem with polls when the electorate is closely split. The results vary day by day and by their nature are inherently inaccurate. They generally consist of a small sample and the results are massaged in ways thought to be representative of the views of the majority. No one has the courage to define the error bar but I would suspect it could be around the 10% mark. Therefore all the polls are suspect.

The tories anticipated the loss of 500 seats
Labour anticipated a gain of 400 seats.

The reality was -1300 and -80 respectively and a massive vote of no confidence by the electorate for both parties.

The acid test will be the EU elections but I suspect a stitchup is in the offing between May and Corbyn to sell us out and prevent the forthcoming election.
The result will be neither fish nor foul!

It will be a enduring treaty creating more shackles and chains and loss of all seats at the top table. That is a result far far worse than simply remaining in the EU.

If polls were in any way accurate I would welcome an explanation as to why both parties received such a massive drubbing in the recent council elections. It simply does not compute!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 05 May 19 - 04:49 AM

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll - PM
Date: 05 May 19 - 03:16 AM

ABUSE 10/10
CONSTRUCTIVE ARGUMENT 0/10

How very predictable!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 05 May 19 - 04:33 AM

Out of interest, I am on the YouGov list. I regularly submit poll responses but, to date, have not been asked about anything to do with brexit.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 05 May 19 - 04:07 AM

From Jim's link:

The survey by polling firm YouGov showed that if a referendum were held immediately, 46 percent would vote to remain, 39 percent would vote to leave, and the rest either did not know, would not vote, or refused to answer the question.

When the undecided and those who refused to answer were removed from the sample, the split was 54-46 in favor of remaining.
That is broadly in line with other polls in recent months which show a deeply divided electorate, in which opinion has swung towards remaining in the EU. The 2016 referendum voted 52 to 48 percent in favor of leaving.

So a YouGov poll showing a majority in favour of remain, this time. Unlike the YouGov polls showing such strength for the Brexit Party a day or two earlier.

This suggests there may well be something wrong with YouGov's methodology in conducting polls that deliver apparently conflicting answers. In particular, the public may be extremely sensitive to precisely how the question is phrased, and this is not being adequately taken account when preparing the poll questionaire.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 05 May 19 - 03:16 AM

Maggie and Tommy - there's a match made in hell
Anybody who thinks Thatcher didn't take Britain to the brink of being an extremist right-wing state is living in their own head
Lord Snooty and Boris the Braindead stands to do the same now, with the chaos that Brexit has created
If Corbyn is to live up to his promises he needs to focus his attention on the wider picture and ditch the Labour Tories in his ranks - he certainly has the rank-and-file support to do so and I have little doubt that the British People have become so appalled at the Brexit Circus - they'd be insane not to

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-poll/britons-would-now-vote-to-stay-in-eu-want-second-referendum-poll-idUSKCN1P006O

Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 05 May 19 - 03:16 AM

Maggie and Tommy - there's a match made in hell
Anybody who thinks Thatcher didn't take Britain to the brink of being an extremist right-wing state is living in their own head
Lord Snooty and Boris the Braindead stands to do the same now, with the chaos that Brexit has created
If Corbyn is to live up to his promises he needs to focus his attention on the wider picture and ditch the Labour Tories in his ranks - he certainly has the rank-and-file support to do so and I have little doubt that the British People have become so appalled at the Brexit Circus - they'd be insane not to

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-poll/britons-would-now-vote-to-stay-in-eu-want-second-referendum-poll-idUSKCN1P006O

Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 05 May 19 - 02:42 AM

As you know, and as has been explained, had it been a general election Labour would have formed a government with Lib Dem, SNP and Plaid support.

I do admire confidence, but when misplaced one must expect disappointment.

Let me give you John McDonnell as an example. He predicted Labour would GAIN 400 seats BEFORE crushing defeat and a loss of nearly 90 seats.


There is a difference between optimism, wishful thinking and sheer delusion. I leave you to tick the appropriate box.
If Corbyn thought he had any kind of support he would have called for a no confidence vote months ago.

As the illustrious Maggie would have said: "He was frit!"

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 05 May 19 - 02:03 AM

There is very little that is clear as a result of the local elections but I feel that Labour's approach of trying to paint everything as a Tory Brexit has failed. The poor Labour results say Labour is definitely being blamed as well. I think everyone in Labour's high command recognised coming out strongly pro-Brexit would lose a lot of votes, as would coming out strongly anti-Brexit. They thought then staying ambiguous would keep most on side especially if they could focus on what happens after Brexit.

To me, the results show you lose voters on all the paths and if you wish to stay ambiguous you can, but do so in the knowledge it could be even worse in terms of votes that either of the alternatives. People expect a party to decide what it wants and then to argue for it. Ambiguity costs.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 04 May 19 - 05:41 PM

Had it been a general election a party which did not field any candidates would form the government? Bizarre. As you know, and as has been explained, had it been a general election Labour would have formed a government with Lib Dem, SNP and Plaid support.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 04 May 19 - 02:39 PM

Generally mid term local council elections have tended to fsvour the opposition party. On this basis Labour would have had a reasonable expectation of hoovering up the 400 seats they anticipated winning. Instead they lost 87 seats and set a new record. It is not just the Tories received a justly deserved shellacking at the hustings but also Labour. UKIP very rightly lost wholesale. This is no surprise with Tommy Robinson on the ticket. This clearly demonstrates the projected split vote between UKIP and the Brexit party is no longer an issue. UKIP is toast.

This surely must be the end of Tereason May. The MEP elections ahould prove highl entertaining and the next general election will have most of Westminster clutching their P45's.

The stunning local council elections demonstrate very well that people did know what they were voting for in the referendum.and the hustings
have further driven the point home is an exceedingly painful manner for both parties. Lie to the electorate and the electorate will take it's pound of flesh.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 04 May 19 - 01:36 PM

The Brexit Party continues to lead in the latest YouGov/Times European Parliament voting intention poll. Nigel Farage's new party holds 30% of the vote, having been on 28% in last week's survey. Labour find themselves with 21% of the vote (from 22%) while the Conservatives remain on just 13%.

Try looking forwards instead of backwards. These must be very confusing times for the left! Where to turn eh?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 03 May 19 - 07:03 PM

"Had it been a General Election the Brexit party would form the government."

In the kingdom of the amazingly bonkers, this is by far the most bonkers thing I've read in years.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 03 May 19 - 02:53 PM

I doubt many MPs will be smirking after this. If the EU elections go ahead the political map in the UK will be redrawn. The Tories have found Armageddon and the anticipated Labour gains of 400 have been a complete myth. But perhaps their worship of Janus was not. But being blinkered has its drawbacks!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 03 May 19 - 02:52 PM

Make that 1300

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 03 May 19 - 02:13 PM

Tory net losses now top 1100.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 May 19 - 12:48 PM

Almost 1000 Tory seats lost and UKIP all but wiped out of local government. A good day :-)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 03 May 19 - 11:08 AM

If voting strategically to bloody the nose of Tory and Labour there is no point in voting for minority parties. It merely creates statistical noise. Going for the third runner hurts the other two, as the results testify. No further analysis is required.

Had it been a General Election the Brexit party would form the government. They did not participate in the council elections.

So far Tories lose 676 seats and Labour 91 with results in 162 of 248 councils in humbling backlash for both parties!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 May 19 - 10:55 AM

Does anyone know the percentage of support gained and lost? If I remember rightly UKIP only had about 100 seats so a loss of 80 is a more severe blow than Labours loss of 80 out of 6000 and odd.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 03 May 19 - 10:50 AM

To be fair, I imagine some of the UKIP votes went to independents, rather than the main parties.

But it still seems an intriguing way of thinking to reject parties that may or may not give you want you want to vote for the one party that will definitely not give you what you want.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 03 May 19 - 10:40 AM

Vote for the third horse (This is very clearly what has happened)

Or if there are more than three horses, the one that most matches your wishes. So explain the UKIP losses again...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 03 May 19 - 10:01 AM

There are several ways of displaying displeasure while polling:
1)Stay away and not vote.(a meaningless protest)
2)Deface the ballot paper (It registers as a protest vote but achieves zilch)
3)Vote for the third horse (This is very clearly what has happened)

If the Lib Dems regard it as a ringing endorsement of their policies have I got news for them. Needless to say members of the loony left are in complete denial of this self evident truth. But then they also argue leave did not win the referendum.
Gravity can bend light, socialists can bend truth!

This fits in well with a Corbynism:
'Stand in the middle of the road and you get run over in both directions': (poor lad has 80 tyre tracks and counting)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 May 19 - 08:48 AM

BBC news 13:30 today

Tories down 600
Labour down 80
UKIP down 60

Libdem up 400
Green up 80

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 03 May 19 - 06:26 AM

Yes, by voting in droves for the Lib Dema and Greens, both pro remain parties. The remain fightback is on #nottakingthislyingdown #revokeandremain.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 03 May 19 - 06:19 AM

Dennis Skinner's Bolsover council lost to Tories deep in the Labour heartland.

Labour Staffer: ‘Corbyn is Poison on the Doorstep’

The valiant Brxiteers are giving a pasting at the hustings.
The Brexit party has a 9% clear lead for the upcoming EU elections.

John McDonnell told LBC: “I am aiming for sort of about 400” seat gains. At the time of going to pixel Labour have actually lost seats on the night.(and the bloodletting is far from over.)

The silent majority are making their presence known!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 03 May 19 - 04:15 AM

However the view held by knowledgeable pundits differs.
"With less than half of council election results counted the Tories have already hemorrhaged more than 250 seats as the party was abandoned by voters furious about the state of Brexit. The party had already been braced for a tough night amid frustration at Prime Minister Theresa May's failure to take Britain out of the EU on March 29 as planned. But election guru Sir John Curtice declared voters had declared 'a plague on both your houses' as both the Conservatives and Labour took big hits in their heartlands in the South East and North respectively. Furious Brexit supporters took to social media to show they had spoiled their ballot papers to show their demand to leave the EU immediately (right). But the Lib Dems, a hardcore Remain party, made significant gains with some predictions they could add up to 5000 council seats."
      It hardly needs pointing out that a tactical protest vote went to the Libdems because that was the only way to hurt the main two parties.
and hurt them they did! To try to explain it in any other way portrays a staggering degree of political naivety.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 03 May 19 - 04:00 AM

Indeed, Dave. If you order the parties by attitude, then the hard Brexiteers of UKIP lost heavily in proportion to previously held seats, through the confused middle (which was down) to the pro-EU parties that did well.

However, I still maintain that it was inappropriate for a voter to pay too much attention to Brexit when deciding how to vote. In fact, despite what the press is suggesting, I think any glib assumption that the dissatisfaction with the government is all about Brexit rather than say austerity, Windrush, the wondrous incompetence of Grayling and the rest lacks evidence. That Brexit played a part is undeniable. How big a part is uncertain.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 03 May 19 - 03:39 AM

Good to see that the bulk of the protest votes have gone to the pro-Europe Lib-Dem and Green parties. Maybe people are not as stupid as Farage thinks.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 02 May 19 - 11:52 AM

The Brexit Party has continued its impressive rise, opening a nine point lead over the Labour Party and hitting 30% for the first time in YouGov’s latest European Election poll. All Remain parties other than the Lib Dems are falling. With their established ground operation and much higher recognition as a pro-Remain party, Vince Cable’s has-beens look set to beat upstarts Change UK on polling day.

UKIP won these elections in 2014 with just 26.6% of the vote, on a much lower turnout than expected this time around. Turns out people really don’t like having their democratic votes ignored…

Below a serious discussion of weighting before we have the usual contemptuous dismissal of yougov by the usual.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/faq-weighting

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 02 May 19 - 05:45 AM

If people are influenced greatly by Brexit in local elections it would show how little they understand the UK system of governance. That the EU elections are all about Brexit is right, but not local elections.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 01 May 19 - 01:14 PM

ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 01 May 19 - 04:21 AM

Me too - preferably mashed! ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 01 May 19 - 04:10 AM

I like turnips!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 30 Apr 19 - 12:11 PM

As predicted, it seems the NEC has decided to stay ambiguous over whether it will or will not support a confirmatory vote. I think this could easily put off a lot of the people who deliver leaflets, etc, so expect very little of that before the EU elections.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 30 Apr 19 - 08:28 AM

Come to think of it, Steve, ‘plank’ is a bloody good description of him.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Apr 19 - 07:54 AM

And plank goes with yank...inchoate notions about 'im floating through my mind here, John... ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 30 Apr 19 - 04:55 AM

More Tory-Right-Wing Diversion Tactics. Brexshit a complete and utter balls up? “Look over there - Labour anti-semitism”. Tory Party ripping itself to pieces? “Look over there - Corbyn the terrorist’s friend”.

Utter horse-shit being spread by a bunch of desperate yesterday’s men and women.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 30 Apr 19 - 03:39 AM

Three former Labour members have been arrested

note well: FORMER. Not Labour members, then.

Here is a cutting about it from the Independenat - March 28th, by the way, so a few weeks old.

"The Independent understands that the three suspects have been subject to disciplinary action by the Labour Party and are no longer members.

A Labour Party spokesperson said: "We welcome the police investigating these individuals’ alleged crimes. Antisemitism has no place in our society and we are committed to challenging and campaigning against it in all its forms."


So Labour took action, Exactly what you are demanding. Not that you acknowledge that, of course,

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: The Sandman
Date: 29 Apr 19 - 05:37 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W67Xppg434

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteglasgow
Date: 29 Apr 19 - 04:32 PM

whatever.....

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteglasgow
Date: 29 Apr 19 - 02:41 PM

donuel, it's just offensive to me anyway, to refer to the word 'retard' as a form of abuse. it's offensive for a clear reason to anyone with any respect for folk with disabilities.

'brexshitter' doesn't bother me much, there has been plenty of such insults in this nasty wee squabble.

insults like 'betrayal' or traitor' are something else - they allow people to get very self-righteous and sometimes angry. having received physical threats myself for being a remoaner and a 'traitor' - i wish we could forget all about this brexit idea and go back to being civil to each other and to our neighbours.

as it is, our house goes on the market tomorrow and we hope to move somewhere where there is a more diverse community and less bad feeling.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 29 Apr 19 - 02:33 PM

"I'm hearing anti semetic whistles about Corbyn over here. ?"
As usual
It is now four years since leading members of the Muslim community in Britain pointed out that there was a serious problem of Islamophobia within the Tory Party - STILL FESTERING
Nothing has been done - not even an acknowledgement
That's how important this sort of thing is to the Guido Gobshites
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Donuel
Date: 29 Apr 19 - 02:07 PM

I'm hearing anti semetic whistles about Corbyn over here. ?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stanron
Date: 29 Apr 19 - 11:33 AM

Leftard is offensive but Brexshitter is perfectly acceptable? Brilliant.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: mayomick
Date: 29 Apr 19 - 06:39 AM

“Referring to Tory arch Brexiteer, and leader of the party’s European Research Group, Mr Ahern described Jacob Rees Mogg as a "lovely fella when he’s asleep"”

Ireland’s former taoiseach Bertie Ahern being unusually frank when talking about Brexiteers last week. Asked what he meant Ahern was even more blunt   "When he’s awake, he definitely is a strange fish I tell you, in and out of the water."

"And regards to the fact that lot of these guys went to Oxford, Cambridge and Eton, they’re not very bright. This is the problem."

With such personalised rancour coming out it in public, you’d have to wonder - and fear - what is being said in private discussions.
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/brexiteer-jacob-rees-mogg-admitted-to-me-he-didnt-know-what-the-irish-border-was-bertie-ahern-38057788.html

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 29 Apr 19 - 06:03 AM

Currently most polls have Labour and the Brexit party in a two horse race, and about equal numbers.   ??????

The Brexit Party (28%) is polling ahead of Labour (22%)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 29 Apr 19 - 02:13 AM

Tomorrow night the NEC has to finalise the Labour manifesto for the EU elections, so here are my thoughts on how the argument will go.

Forget what is good for the country, or Labour core principles or other abstractions. It will all be a numbers game, driven as cold-heartedly as possible. Currently most polls have Labour and the Brexit party in a two horse race, and about equal numbers.

Option 1 is to come out as Remain/Revoke/Confirmatory referendum. This will upset Leave voters who have stayed under the Labour umbrella, and a goodly fraction would move from Labour to the Brexit Party. Labour is weakened and the Brexit Party strengthened.

Option 2 is to come out as Brexit. This will make a good few remain supporters move the Green or Change UK, but obviously none will move to the Brexit Party. However, some people in the Brexit Party will be there who are Labour at heart but did not trust it to leave. They may move back. So this option may leave Labour more or less the same on numbers, but weaken Nigel.

Option 3 is to stay ambiguous. They will probably have some Labour voters move to Green or ChangeUK in frustration, but almost all of this will already have happened.

Conclusion:
Most likely: stay ambiguous
Next most likely: Come out for Brexit
Least likely: Confirmatory vote.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 28 Apr 19 - 02:07 PM

Voting shortly closes in Spain. The outcome could upset the cosy club in Brussells. It will be interesting t0 see how Catalonia fares. The right is expected to show a resurgence.
In France Le Pen is giving Macron a hardtime, and despite the media playing it down the riots are still ongoing
    Riot police unleashed tear gas on protesters in Strasbourg today(26th) as they surrounded European Parliament
    Fights happened despite €5million measures proposed by Emmanuel Macron on their 24th day of protest
   

Politicians do need to listen to their electorate.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 28 Apr 19 - 01:53 PM

Meanwhile back to things appertaining to brexit.
We are now in the kind of territory that we have not seen since the days of the SDP. The Brexit Party (28%) is polling ahead of Labour (22%) and polling more than double the vote share of the Tories (13%).

Not delivering a promise on Brexit comes at a price!