BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 22 May 19 - 10:26 AM

Unlike 'first past the post' this shows that in most regions, a 37% vote is likely to receive much more than 37% recognition in terms of seats (66% in regions with only 3 seats, 60% in regions with 5 seats)

That's a good point, Nigel, though I am not sure about the first past the post part, since that allocates 100% of the seat to the highest percentage vote, even if that is 50% + one vote, which is the less representative possible before actually giving the seat to a minority of the voters.

But the general point is well made and often overlooked. The voting percentage is - for practical purposes - a continuous variable, whereas the number of seats, whether one or ten, is a discrete quantity. It follows that except by a fluke, under any voting scheme whatever, there will be a degree of mismatch between the percentage of votes and the percentage of seats. All the complicated proportional systems are aimed at reducing the mismatch, but that is difficult and is always a compromise in some fashion.

The YouGov polls consistently rate the Brexit Party higher than other polls, often by around 5%. That matters, and where the 5% ends up also matters. I think we will wait for the results before we get too carried away …

Last time I understand Farage and UKIP got 22 seats. At the time, Brexit was really of interest only to nerds. COnsequently, I would be surprised if the Brexit Party did not get considerably more, but it would, for me, have to be 28 or above to be particularly noteworthy.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 22 May 19 - 09:18 AM

From: Backwoodsman - PM
Date: 22 May 19 - 08:53 AM

The decent ones amongst us regard physical assaults on politicians as being totally unacceptable, no matter what the politician’s position may be. Attack them verbally by all means, but physically? Absolutely not!

A confusing statement from someone who had earlier said:
A small nuclear device on Old Haddock-Face’s house would be a good start.
I suppose a period of little over half-an-hour is too long to remember ones own comments.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 22 May 19 - 08:53 AM

The decent ones amongst us regard physical assaults on politicians as being totally unacceptable, no matter what the politician’s position may be. Attack them verbally by all means, but physically? Absolutely not!

I haven’t heard any Remainer calling Brexshiteers ‘traitors’, and calling for them to be ‘arrested, marched out, and shot’. However, there’s plenty of evidence on the internet of Brexshiteers saying precisely that about remainers - it's been directed at me a number of times by BrexShit Gammons on SM.

Greenhouses, stones.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 22 May 19 - 08:48 AM

"Is it not lefty reminiacs being charged with common assault and calling for acid attacks on fine upstanding Brexit politicians?"
As usual you choose to ignore the violence that has already taken place as a result of using race and ethnic hatred to push through a policy that is steadily destroying the UK

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 22 May 19 - 08:43 AM

brexitaliban ??????

Is it not lefty reminiacs being charged with common assault and calling for acid attacks on fine upstanding Brexit politicians?

Oh Dear oh dear !!!!!!!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 22 May 19 - 08:36 AM

Everything that is wrong with the Brexit party and more

I wonder if our resident brexitaliban will let us know which of these sad excuses for politicians they voted for?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 22 May 19 - 08:25 AM

The usual abysmal standard of rhetoric off remainiacs I see.

Anyone for a milkshake?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 22 May 19 - 08:20 AM

A small nuclear device on Old Haddock-Face’s house would be a good start.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 22 May 19 - 08:17 AM

@Nigel. The implications are interesting. I wonder how much of the LibDem vote materializes as shown, or is it simply still displaying as a protest vote against the two major parliamentary parties. I suspect some of that intent could spring to the brexit party.
Sunday night could yet spring surprises either way. Hatching eggs is subject to the fickle finger of fate, as are polls. (especially when several days will elapse in the UK between polling and the release of the results) Who will be watching the watchers?

I see Brown's false allegations concerning brexit funding have been seen to be unfounded. He must be congratulated for generating extra votes for TBP. The MSM are keeping that particular gem well hidden, while the EU are now getting in on the act with squeals of pesky Ruskie collusion.
That should generate a raft more votes for Brexit.

I wonder what the establishment has for a last minute attempt to destroy the Brexit party?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 22 May 19 - 08:17 AM

No need to apologise Al - you can never get enough good news !!!
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 22 May 19 - 08:12 AM

Sorry for the cross-posting, Jim.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 22 May 19 - 08:08 AM

British Steel now in compulsory liquidation.

How typical of the Self-Servatives that, on the one hand, they can’t or won’t find 75 million to support what remains of our steel industry and the town that depends on it, yet they had no problem whatsoever, when they failed to win sufficient seats to form a government in the 2017 GE, stumping up over one BILLION with which to bribe the religious-nutcase terrorist-supporters of the DUP in order to hang on to power by their fingernails.

Absolutely disgusting treachery.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 22 May 19 - 08:04 AM

British Steel gone into receivership
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 22 May 19 - 07:48 AM

Interesting figures:
BREX: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 19% (+2)
LAB: 13% (-2)
GRN: 12% (+1)
CON: 7% (-2)
CHUK: 4% (-)
UKIP: 3% (-)
If those were repeated on the day, under the voting system used in Great Britain:
the first seat in any region would go to Brexit.
the second seat to Lib Dem,
the third to Brexit
the fourth to Labour
the fifth to Brexit
the sixth to Green
the seventh to Lib Dem
the eighth to Brexit
the ninth to Brexit
the tenth to Conservative (and it is only the South East which has 10 seats available. In any other British region the Conservatives would get no seats.
The above calculations are based on the percentages in the polls being repeated evenly across the country. It is possible that SNP & Plaid Cymru would also gain seats in Scotland/Wales.
Unlike 'first past the post' this shows that in most regions, a 37% vote is likely to receive much more than 37% recognition in terms of seats (66% in regions with only 3 seats, 60% in regions with 5 seats)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 22 May 19 - 07:41 AM

May seems to have accepted the idea of a limited SECOND REFERENDUM
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 22 May 19 - 05:11 AM

DMcG Unless something dramatic happens the 22 committee are going to indulge in the time honoured pastime of can kicking.

I did find the link below today. I feel it echoes the sentiments of many.


https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5099ba620f852d44f6fddf50d63af0fd23e051a506e21060667fd3e2fbb7e4f3.jpg

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 22 May 19 - 05:05 AM

BREX: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 19% (+2)
LAB: 13% (-2)
GRN: 12% (+1)
CON: 7% (-2)
CHUK: 4% (-)
UKIP: 3% (-)
YouGov, 19 - 21 May

Now high is brexit momma, 37% and rising.......

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 22 May 19 - 04:38 AM

Back to Brexit more directly.

May's bold plan seems rejected on all sides and there is talk of not putting it before the House at all. Since I don't see a general election being entered into willingly, that really does put us in the no-deal or revoke territory.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 22 May 19 - 04:18 AM

Of course, there are also those who see a silver lining and fail to notice a nasty big black cloud attached to it.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 22 May 19 - 04:11 AM

DmcG The real reason is the refusal of the Commons to deliver the Brexit both parties promised in their last election manifesto. Any economic uncertainties resulting from their intransigence is clearly their fault.
Trying to deflect blame onto the Blameless Brexiteers, who only seek a democratic outcome, simply will not fly. (Just see what happens Sunday night)

But the anticipated character assassination of Farage is delivering untold thousands of extra votes into the Brexit camp.
Democracy shall prevail!

As the saying goes:

Every cloud has a silver lining ! (or MEP seat)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 22 May 19 - 03:29 AM

That is one view of the reasons for British Steel's problems. Here is another lifted from the Guardian:


How much is Brexit to blame?
It is not the only factor in the crisis but it is very important. Steel contracts are typically agreed well in advance of the product being delivered. As things stand, the UK is due to leave the EU on 31 October and the terms of that separation are yet to be agreed, meaning British Steel's overseas customers don't know what tariffs will apply to steel they buy from the company. Sources close to the company say orders from customers in the EU and further afield have dried up as a result.


That is why the company needs an urgent cash injection, to replace the drop in sales in the hope that a favourable Brexit deal can be signed in the meantime. Another factor is the weakness of sterling since the referendum result, which makes the cost of imported raw material used in making steel higher. Greybull bought British Steel after the referendum but it did not expect Brexit uncertainty to last this long.


So which seems the bigger issue to me, tariffs and sales or carbon trading issues? I think you can guess.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 21 May 19 - 04:35 PM

Britain now stands to lose one of its major industries due to "Brexit related problems"


So on the day British steel is about to go bankrupt because of an EU policy (emissions trading) and a vindictive EU move (suspending British company's rights to take free allowances), May is going to argue that we should still be regulated by the EU.


Of course, the BBC reports it as "Brexit related issues" rather than "having been affected by an EU decision to suspend UK companies from accessing carbon credits to cover their emissions under the ETS, until a Brexit deal is ratified by the UK's Parliament"

It helps to paint the entire picture otherwise the unwary might totally misunderstand the reality!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 21 May 19 - 01:33 PM

Hate Crimes ang Brexit - official figures
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/brexit-hate-crimes-racism-eu-referendum-vote-attacks-increase-police-figures-official-a7358866.html
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 21 May 19 - 01:03 PM

Violence has been an issue of the Brexit farrago from the time the result was announced and racist incidents began to climb alarmingly
BREXIT AND VIOLENCE

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 21 May 19 - 12:43 PM

"I wonder how long it takes Mr Plod to investigate this member of the loony left?"
HOPEFULLY NOT AS LONG AS IT'S TAKEN TO DEAL WITH THESE
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN JOKEY THREAT AND REALITY
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 21 May 19 - 11:45 AM

Never eaten in a Jamies - not my kind of food - but I'm willing to listen to what he has been saying (as a businessman) for several years now
He was against leaving Europe but advocated that doing so might improve the nations dietary habits so it seems he was pragmatic rather than a straightforward stayer
Now the crunch has come, he links his crash to Brexit

Apropo of nothing, there's a lovely story around here of a couple of local electricians employed in a posh restaurant/hotel somewhere in the Midlands of Ireland around Christmastime.
The hotelier decided to treat them to a special Christmas meal - he lined up the staff - best bib and tucker and led the lads to their table where a waiter brought them the wine - handing a tasters sample to our neighbour Paddy to try first - Paddy obliged, tasted it and nodded his assent
Then they brought out the meal nouvelle cuisine - a coule of potatoes, a few vegetables, a couple of thin slices of meat and sprigs of garnish, all beautifully laid out on the plate
Paddy looked at it, scooped it down in one go and nodded - "yes; bring me some of that".
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 21 May 19 - 11:20 AM

Thanks for that, Jim.

I am not convinced, though, that the spokesman is entirely right. Certainly, their problems got worse after the Brexit vote. It does not follow that it got worse because of the Brexit vote. In fact, I think the pressure on wages and austerity is more of a factor, with the only Brexit-related exception being what happens to staff from the EU. (But that applies to most chains, not just Jamie's. And of course a lot of other chains *are* struggling as well.)

I have only eaten once at a "Jamie's Italian" - I am not particularly avoiding them, that's just how things turned out. To me, it seemed fairly average Italian fast food at an above average price. Certainly not something I would try to "wow!" my Italian daughter-in-law with.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 21 May 19 - 09:23 AM

"None of the articles I have read about Jamie Oliver's business failing says it is related to Brexit."

"Jamie Oliver is to close six of his Italian restaurants after tough trading and the “pressures and unknowns” following the Brexit vote"
HERE

Pretty much how it was presented on the mid-day news
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 21 May 19 - 08:40 AM

I think those who favour remain need to careful not to blame every problem on Brexit. None of the articles I have read about Jamie Oliver's business failing says it is related to Brexit. It could be: there could be staffing problems, for example. But if so no one is reporting it as amongst the specific causes. So unless evidence appears to the contrary, it sounds like too many chain restaurants chasing too few customers. That's business, not Brexit.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 21 May 19 - 08:32 AM

"A majority of voters did note vote for a no deal"
A tiny majority of a 72% turnout voted to leave without having the right to specify any alternatives
The demands being made at present are those of an extremist, unelected, self-appointed right-wing pressure group.

Britain now stands to lose one of its major industries due to "Brexit related problems"
British Steel is awaiting the decision of whether it is to receive a massive bailout in order to survive
Jamie Oliver's Restaurant chain is also facing closure due to Brexit related business problems - all very conducive to Britain "standing on her own two feet"
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: The Sandman
Date: 21 May 19 - 08:10 AM

Amajority of voters did note vote for a no deal[ as some of the brexit party are claiming], some of the leavers voted to leave but be in a similiar position to norway

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 21 May 19 - 07:25 AM

BTW, your graffiti analogy is very apt. If you deface or piss on the graffiti, it makes it all the more difficult for the owners of the wall to clean it up. Try making the owner's (moderation team's) life easier by not adding to it.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 21 May 19 - 07:22 AM

"Not pandering to an inflated ego"
Tearing down and exposing is not pandering Dave
Ignoring is appeasing in my book
Apasrt from anything else, the contradictions of his arguments are worth pointing out - a miniscule non-party with no democratic credentials - the dismissal of minorities because 'they are too small to be considered important' while at the same time clutching on to a far smaller majority as "The will of the people" - attacking elected leaders as "anglophobic" while at the same time denigrating elected politicians who he doesn't agree with
By that argument, accusing a Prime minister as "a traitor" is as "Anglophobic" as it comes

If he actually put up an argument, we would have nothing to complain about - would that Nigel and Stanron did occasionally, but neither of them 'soapbox' as this feler does
Well worth a few minutes worth of exposé in my book
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 21 May 19 - 06:57 AM

Not pandering to an inflated ego is not the same as walking away, Jim.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 21 May 19 - 06:38 AM

"Jim and John. Will you never learn? :-( "
When I see a piece of hate graffiti on a wall I deface it if possible - if not, I try to piss on it
You walk away if you wish Dave
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 21 May 19 - 05:51 AM

Hammond is making an interesting point today: he is saying that the leaflets etc before the referendum all talked about getting a good deal when we leave the EU. Consequently leaving with no deal is betraying the referendum vote.

Offhand, I cannot remember any information issued before the referendum promoting no deal, but perhaps others have better memory than me. Can someone link to some official documentation from before the referendum vote favouring no deal?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 21 May 19 - 05:11 AM

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome - PM
Date: 20 May 19 - 11:28 AM

Jim and John. Will you never learn? :-(

Strange that in among the multiple deletions that this one was missed!
Has moderation been usurped by a political commissar?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 21 May 19 - 04:37 AM

Apropos my post above. It is significant that the £83K donation mentioned above translates to 100,000 euros using the exchange rate of the time. An unusual figure for a UK origin, but perfectly understandable for an EU origin.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 21 May 19 - 04:12 AM

From: DMcG - PM
Date: 20 May 19 - 02:25 PM

Well once again, Nigel you can only see typos and not information. Perhaps you would like to comment on whether you think the Telegraph's omission of those parties (unlike, say, the BBC's poll of polls) is a fair representation of the current voting intentions?

Such a shame the comment you responded to, which I believe contained nothing in the least offensive, has been deleted.
There seems to be a lot being deleted for no reason recently.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 21 May 19 - 03:49 AM

However, in responding to criticism of the Brexit Party’s donations policy by drawing attention to the donations policy of People’s Vote, you clearly were attempting to draw a parallel. I simply pointed out that the parallel to which you alluded doesn’t exist

Oh Yes it does!

Peoples vote website
we are registered with, and regulated by, the Electoral Commission during this period. This means that donations over £500 have to be verified as permissible, and those over £7,500 published by the Electoral Commission, as required by law. As is the Brexit Party
In an election period the rules become even more stringent.

As people's vote is a pressure group I wonder if the electoral commissioners will investigate them to see how much funding is of foreign(EU)origin?
After all they had a huge donation from a pharmaceutical company representing nearly 30% of it's annual profit. However the EU parent company is worth billions.

You cannot beat a level playing field!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 20 May 19 - 02:25 PM

Well once again, Nigel you can only see typos and not information. Perhaps you would like to comment on whether you think the Telegraph's omission of those parties (unlike, say, the BBC's poll of polls) is a fair representation of the current voting intentions?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 20 May 19 - 01:52 PM

"A REMINDER of WHO THE BREXIT PARTY ACTUALLY IS AND IT'S COLOURFUL HISTORY "
It is actually not a party - it is a one-policy and no constitution
It has no members - only paying supporters, so it cannot even claim to be a democratic organisation
It is, in fact, capitalising on the farcical situation created by a sulky group who, by playing on the prejudices of the British people.
An examination of its SISTER PARTY will show how The Brexit Party has its roots in the Extremist Right goroups that have sprung up in Europe - many of whom have died the death of all crank parties

As far as the European Election results are concerned, as the UK vote has never exceeded 40%, any result can hardly be claimed as a victory
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 20 May 19 - 01:33 PM

”Care to tell me where I said peoples vote is a political party?”

Nobody has said that you said ‘People’s Vote’ is a political party. However, in responding to criticism of the Brexit Party’s donations policy by drawing attention to the donations policy of People’s Vote, you clearly were attempting to draw a parallel. I simply pointed out that the parallel to which you alluded doesn’t exist.

It’s really not difficult. But apparently too difficult for you. No surprise there.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 20 May 19 - 01:08 PM

I presume Telegraph readers are not supposed to notice the SNP and Plaid Cwmru are omitted, or ask themselves why.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 20 May 19 - 12:13 PM

Reality versus ideology!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/20/brexit-party-set-win-votes-pro-remain-parties-combined-polling/

A stunning graph showing the brexit party gains since the local coucil elections. If accurate the day the EU election results are announced will be a fine popcorn evening of celebration.

Even worse for remainiacs
"The Brexit Party has seen support soar in the aftermath of Theresa May agreeing to an extension of the Brexit deadline with the European Union, with a YouGov poll of 2,212 voters conducted between May 8-9 showing 34 percent of those surveyed would cast their vote in favour of the newborn party. Mr Portillo suggested Britons could again opt to take their vote away from historical parties during a General Election." Farage for PM?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 20 May 19 - 11:28 AM

Jim and John. Will you never learn? :-(

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 20 May 19 - 11:07 AM

European elections
latest polls: Brexit
Party forecast to win most votes
The Telegraph
1 hour ago

Pro- and anti-Brexit
parties neck and
neck in EU
election, says poll
The Guardian
2 hours ago

Brexit Party set to
win more votes
than pro-Remain
parties combined, polling reveals
The Telegraph
10 hours ago

What a joke!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 20 May 19 - 11:01 AM

Bloody HTML! Try again...

Like the Guardian, Alastair Campbell’s ‘People’s Vote’ is not a registered political party, and therefore is not subject to the rules that apply to registered political parties with regard to donations.

You really are beginning to look very silly indeed. Or very thick.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 20 May 19 - 10:58 AM

”It should be noted that Alastair Campbell’s People’s Vote welcomes offshore donations:”

Like the Guardian, Alastair Campbell’s ‘’People’s Vote’ is not a registered political party, and therefore is not subject to the rules that apply to registered political parties with regard to donations.

You really are beginning to look very silly indeed. Or very thick.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 20 May 19 - 10:53 AM

A REMINDER If one wee needed
AND ANOTHER
AND YET ANOTHER


"Trust me - I'm a Brexiteer" - I don't think so !!
Jim Carroll