BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 09 May 19 - 02:17 PM

The third way is to do both. But please consider the order carefully.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 May 19 - 02:15 PM

Election communication from the Brexit party received today. Large, rather distorted photo of Farage on it. It caused a terrible, apocalyptic raging row in our house. She wanted to burn it, I wanted to w*pe my b*tt*m with that image. Dammit. She won. The paper was a bit coarse anyway...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 09 May 19 - 11:31 AM

I’ve just completed my Postal Vote form. I was rather surprised to see that UKIP and the Brexit Party are fielding candidates - in view of their oft-repeated lie that the EU is run by ‘unelected bureaucrats’, I was under the distinct impression that they had no idea whatsoever that there was an electoral process, or that there were such people as elected MEPs.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 09 May 19 - 08:06 AM

Labour's election manifesto is available here, and it makes very strange reading. It is all about what it has achieved in the EU and what its MEPs will be working for, while at the same time Corbyn says during the launch of the manifesto in a Q&A session:

====
Q: You say leave or remain are unhelpful labels. But many in your party want it to be a remain party? Is it definitely a leave party? Or could it be a remain party?
Corbyn says he fought the referendum on a remain and reform programme. But leave won.
He summarises the sort of Brexit he wants. And he says the Labour manifesto includes the option of a public vote.
====
Getting the Brexit he wants is still Brexit (even if some call it BRINO), so much of what is written in the manifesto saying what the MEPs would be doing evaporates.

The manifesto is written on the assumption we are leaving. For example, "Labour will campaign to secure the continued access to vital databases, which have helped take criminals off our streets and in the fight against terrorism" only makes sense if you have left: if we remained we would have that access.

I for one could not vote for Labour in the upcoming EU elections on the basis of this manifesto. However, I very much doubt if confirmed Leavers will either. I anticipate much of Labour's anticipated vote will move to other parties.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 09 May 19 - 01:21 AM

Sorry, I should have said "but that does not mean it was a lie"

That was a particularly unfortunate word to omit. My apologies, Nigel.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 09 May 19 - 01:17 AM

I detect some confusion about what a lie is and is not. Being wrong is not a lie. Nigel repeatedly said we would be leaving on March 29th but he said it in good faith. It turned out not to be true, but that does mean it was a lie, just false. Equally, when Teresa May said it - at least to begin with - it was said in good faith and so mistaken, but not a lie.

Thomas Aquinas back in the middle ages said that the essential characteristic of a lie was the intention to deceive, and in my book that is right: it is about deception, not whether something is true or not. So arguably if Teresa May continued to say we would leave on March 29th after she knew we couldn't that would be a lie, but while it was said in good faith it was not.

So it boils down to whether Boris' references to the £350m were believed to be an accurate representation of the benefits or were intended to mislead. In my opinion, it was intended to mislead. In short, a lie.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 08 May 19 - 06:29 PM

Having read the briefing paper 07212
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7212/CBP-7212.pdf

I draw your attention to the section highlighted in red. The legislation contained no mention of a threshold. As the referendum was "advisory" there was no necessity, it was to be treated as indicative.
Had it been as you suggest the newspapers would have been on the case like rats up a drainpipe.

The Bill does not propose a threshold for the referendum. The only referendums held in the UK where a threshold has operated were the polls in Scotland and Wales in 1978 on the question of devolution.65
Discussion of the need for some form of threshold usually arises in the context of ensuring the legitimacy and acceptance of the outcome of a referendum. Certain states require constitutional change to be validated by a special majority in a referendum. This incorporates the idea that major constitutional change is something more important than the result of ordinary elections, and therefore should be the outcome of something more than a simple plurality of the votes. The UK does not have a comprehensive written constitution and so any requirement for a threshold has to be included in the individual referendum legislation. Standard Note 2809 Thresholds in Referendums gives further details and provides comparative examples of the use of thresholds.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: The Sandman
Date: 08 May 19 - 05:20 PM

a briefing paper 07212 was sent to all mps it said.. section 5 .the referendum was advisory it does not bind parliament or the government to act on it
section 6 says if there were any suggestion WHATSOEVER that there would be a change, such as leaving the EU A MAJOR CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE would involve A CHANGE IN THE RIGHTS OF THE CITIZENS OF THE UK then a super majority would be required, this document was sent in advance of the debate in 2015.
Iwas talking about this right at the beginning, but no one took any notice

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 08 May 19 - 03:49 PM

Things are coming home to roost for the misleader general

Date set for court case which could prosecute Boris Johnson over £350 million EU lie

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: The Sandman
Date: 08 May 19 - 03:41 PM

the referndum was advisory only and apparantly in viewof this had to have a two thirds majority that was the legal position so all this stuff about democracy is inaccurate, iains please check this, alot of people were misled

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 08 May 19 - 03:28 AM

Sauce for the goose and all that! More tropes from a proper newspaper.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/01/jewish-labour-activists-call-jeremy-corbyn-quit-heendorsed-book/

No doubt young Jeremy will heed Abe Lincoln's advice:

"It is better to keep one's mouth shut and be thought a fool, -- than to open it and remove all doubt."

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 08 May 19 - 02:14 AM

Pete, instructions on making Clickable Links (‘Blue Clickies’) are in the ‘Technical Advice’ section of FAQs. Or, if it doesn’t click with you (see what I did there?), just post the link as text and others can copy and paste it into their browser’s search box.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: SPB-Cooperator
Date: 07 May 19 - 07:37 PM

I am finding it so hard not to feed he troll

---

Keep up the effort. It is much easier to thin out the troll droppings when people don't answer.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteglasgow
Date: 07 May 19 - 12:38 PM

there's a very good article by john crace today about the annoying wee spiv. apologies again - does anyone have the technilogical know how to put the article on here. could be an interesting discussion piece - if the whole thing wasn't so depressing

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteglasgow
Date: 07 May 19 - 09:47 AM

indeed! 'nicotine-stained man frog' has a much better tone. as does (who the f..k would support that) annoying wee spiv?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 07 May 19 - 08:04 AM

"the nicotine stained toad."
How pathetic!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 07 May 19 - 07:55 AM

Yes, I agree we should not let this divert us from core Brexit issues. There is likely to be some sort of announcement/meaningless-verbiage today about the meeting between the Tories and Labour. I expect no progress with an attempt to blame Labour.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 07 May 19 - 07:43 AM

Funny old world init? I wonder what the comments on here would have been if Corbyn had said those things instead of the nicotine stained toad. Still, it all goes to divert us from the shit that the Tories have dropped us in.

Anyone found any good forecasts about brexit yet?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 07 May 19 - 06:22 AM

So you firmly support George Galloway's right to appear on Press TV?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 07 May 19 - 05:38 AM

I think the spokesman for the Board of Deputies of British Jews is stepping well outside his remit to try to dictate what media a politician can be allowed on. He is stepping down a very dangerous authoritarian road and attempting to restrict freedom of speech.
I think he needs to offer a grovelling apology before he does his cause irreparable damage.
I suspect this issue will take wings.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 07 May 19 - 05:03 AM

In that article:

A spokesman for the Board of Deputies of British Jews said: "It is vital that our politicians distance themselves from conspiracy theories and conspiracy theorists, including those who trade in antisemitic tropes. We would call on Nigel Farage to repudiate these ideas and to commit not to dignify oddball nasties like Alex Jones with his presence again."

====
You may dismiss it. They don't.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 07 May 19 - 04:49 AM

In the six identified interviews, which date from 2009 to last year, Farage, whose Brexit party is leading polls for the upcoming European elections, repeatedly uses words and phrases such as “globalists” and “new world order”, which regularly feature in antisemitic ideas.

I think the Guardian will have to do better than the above. The mud slides off effortlessly.

The Dandy and Beano could have done a better job. Words like "the", "this" and "that" regularly feature in antisemitic ideas as well.

What utter nonsense!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 07 May 19 - 03:54 AM

Nigil Fargae under fire for alleged antisemitic tropes on far right US talk show

I hope those who condemn Labour continually for antisemitism will take as hard a line with Farage. Since they always reject defences like the phrase taken out of context, or used with a specific intent rather than Wider possible interpretations, I assume they will not attempt to excuse him that way.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 07 May 19 - 02:59 AM

For my part, Raggy, I don't think it is sensible to regard the results for the two main parties comparable in a straightforward way, but they do have one core similarity: each is substantially worse than even pessimistic estimates beforehand. That does challenge each party to decide what to do about it. But the results do not make clear what that should be. It is a strong echo of the referendum where the majority of those who voted said 'Leave' without defining what that meant. This time they have said 'You can't carry on like this" while giving no clear message what should be done. A lot of leavers think the results show we must leave now, a lot of remainers think it means a confirmatory vote is essential. And most politicians just feel reinforced in whatever their opinion was already.

As I said below, my guess is that the EU elections will be the same.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 06 May 19 - 03:45 PM

Refer to my post of 03.11

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 06 May 19 - 03:37 PM

From: Raggytash - PM
Date: 06 May 19 - 03:11 PM ...........
From your post it is obvious that trying to explain it all to you would be a wasted effort. Therefore I will not bother.

What you call nonsense is an interpretation repeated by pundits everywhere. The explanations are unassailable, hence no arguments
(apart from sparky, but he would argue with his own shadow)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 06 May 19 - 03:11 PM

I'm a tad surprised that people have let pass the utter nonsense that has been posted on here regarding the results in the local elections.

How anyone can equate the Labour loss of 84 councillors,which is disappointing, to the catastrophic loss of 1330 Conservative councillors is amazing if only for the audacity.

Then to ignore the fact that UKip lost 145 of it's tiny 176 seats smacks of not only wearing blinkers but a eye patch and a blindfold as well.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 06 May 19 - 03:07 PM

A by election and a prospective parliamentary candidate for The Brexit party has nothing to do with Brexit?

What a quaint notion!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 May 19 - 02:26 PM

Which has nothing to do with brexit.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 06 May 19 - 02:02 PM

Anyway back to matters appertaining to Brexit:

Annunziata Rees-Mogg, a former Tory parliamentary candidate and sister of Jacob Rees-Mogg, hasn’t been far from the headlines since she appeared at the launch of the Brexit Party. Ms Rees-Mogg is now planning on fighting for the Peterborough seat vacated by Labour MP Fiona Onasanya. Ms Onasanya became the first parliamentarian in British history to be booted out of the Commons and stripped of her seat by a recall petition. The MP was jailed for lying to police about a driving offence.

The outcome of this election will give the pointy heads much to ruminate on.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 May 19 - 11:22 AM

You're within a gnat's cock of the truth there, DMcG...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 06 May 19 - 08:22 AM

DMcG I an sure the gnats will get over it unlike those here that make a meal of playing at being a victim. Both the gnats and I find that unpalatable.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 06 May 19 - 07:59 AM

I can't help feeling gnats are being slighted. I am not sure how you would measure it in the first place, but since the purpose of attention is surely to check if you can eat something or are about to be eaten, I suspect as a proportion of its lifetime a gnat probably spends a lot of time 'paying attention'

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 06 May 19 - 07:12 AM

"I'm just being as thick as two short motes this morning..."
Anybody who doesn;t bow down to Iain's pronouncements, (which come down directly from St Guido) is judged to have "the attention span of a gnat" - which is just about everybody here
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 May 19 - 06:44 AM

Haven't solved it yet, Pete. It would have been Matthew 0-7 Liverpool or Matthew 7-0 Partick...or maybe I'm just being as thick as two short motes this morning...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 06 May 19 - 06:31 AM

Matthews scored his 18th and final goal for Blackpool in a 4–1 league victory over Tottenham Hotspur

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteglasgow
Date: 06 May 19 - 06:24 AM

who did matthew beat 7-5? a turnip maybe?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 06 May 19 - 05:55 AM

Matthew 7:5

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 06 May 19 - 05:42 AM

"I repeat what I said earlier:(for those with the attention span of a gnat)"
You've been warned about your abusive behaviour - and suspended for it before now
If you don't want it to happen again learn to control yourself
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 06 May 19 - 05:36 AM

not the primitive first past the post system used for Westminster.

I need no convincing of that. I was an early member of Charter 88 which amongst other things wanted a proportional voting system. Of course, when we had the AV referendum, the campaigns were a similar mass of falsehoods and ineptitude we have seen since.

Had we had STV, for example, it would have been quite straightforward for let us say the Conservatives to have two candidates in a ward, one pro-EU and one for leaving the EU. In a conservative dominated area a conservative one would still win, and it would be the one which best reflected the pro/anti view.

And that means we could have had - if it was what the country wanted - an anti-EU decision, where the majority of the MPs were of a similar view, and no need for a special referendum or the subsequent division of the country. Alternatively, the same ward could keep a Tory but vote out anti-Brexit views, if that was its opinion. All settled fairly amicably just by using a grown up voting system.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 06 May 19 - 04:56 AM

And that sums up the problem with our politics, compared to the more grown up democracies of mainstream Europe, that a party can get 30% of the vote and claim they won, despite the other 70% holding a diametrically opposing view. They won't have won of course, firstly because it is a Europe wide election, and secondly because the electoral method is either D'Hondt or STV depending upon where you are, and not the primitive first past the post system used for Westminster.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 06 May 19 - 03:53 AM

Says it all really!


https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f48f9073ea26838ed8257b556938c1cfbedaf26a4a8269e1e6e9647ee3bbfd2c.jpg

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 06 May 19 - 03:47 AM

"YouGov " is a survey company set u[ by Tory Politicians - their findings in favour iif right-wing policies have been called into question on several occasions.

I repeat what I said earlier:(for those with the attention span of a gnat)
Below a serious discussion of weighting before we have the usual contemptuous dismissal of yougov by the usual.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/faq-weighting

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 06 May 19 - 03:32 AM

"YouGov " is a survey company set u[ by Tory Politicians - their findings in favour iif right-wing policies have been called into question on several occasions
Immaterial anyway, on something as basic as leaving the E.U., if there is th slightest doubt as to the present divide on the issue, it needs to be put to the people again
May's pathetic "further divide the country" is blatantly stupid - the people are sharply divided, as are the Government and the administrative Institutions
The cynical distrust of the Parliamentary system will be a running sore for years to come - such situations open the door to mob-rule Populism and extremist scapegoating - as was the Brexit decision in the first place
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 05 May 19 - 07:50 PM

Allow me a moment of whimsy. We need an anti-brexit anthem and I think Pete Seeger had it in spades (for "big fool", read "brainless brexiteer")*:

Maybe you're still walking, you're still talking,
You'd like to keep your health.
But every time I read the papers, that old feeling comes on,
We're waist deep in the Big Muddy
And the big fool says to push on.

Waist deep in the Big Muddy,
The big fool says to push on.
Waist deep in the Big Muddy,
The big fool says to push on.
Waist deep, neck deep,
Soon even a tall man will be over his head.
We're waist deep in the Big Muddy,
And the big fool says to push on.

*...Or Theresa May if you like...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 05 May 19 - 03:19 PM

That is certainly a rational view, David C. But we both know the press and others would be shouting "The Brexit Paery won and are being disrespected!"

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 05 May 19 - 02:39 PM

But of course to counter the fallacious argument above, of the largest demographic only a third are registered to vote. Apathy does not win or lose elections, it simply does not register!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 05 May 19 - 02:11 PM

DMcG, it would be clear to me. If there was more vote for remain parties, then remain we should. We can see off the Brexit party, their powerbase is a diminishing demographic.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 05 May 19 - 02:08 PM

It is very clear that the recent council elections enabled the electorate to register their annoyance with the two main parties by causing both to lose a staggering number of seats. Another fact to take away from this is that the opposition party also registered severe losses instead of the gains to be expected from mid term elections.

If the MEP elections occur it is by no means certain how the protest will be registered. There will be a Brexit party standing and they are way ahead in the polls. The big unknown is to what extent the protest vote and Brexit popularity will translate into seats. I see no way of making a safe(accurate) prediction. It is also very difficult to be certain how much positions have changed since the referendum, if at all.
The changes in percentages from poll to poll are all within the error bar so trying to make any kind of reasonable prediction is a bit of a non starter.
I thunk it will have to be simply a wait and see exercise until the votes are counted. I hope brexit will wipe the board but this is by no means a certainty.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 05 May 19 - 09:34 AM

There are predictions that the EU vote will be conclusive. I suspect it will also be all things to all men. For example, one possible result would be

- Brexit Party the largest single party
- substantially more votes for remain parties in aggregate.
- because of the way the proportionality works, more or less the same number of MEPs for each viewpoint.

And if the meaning of that would be clear to you, I am afraid it would not be to me.