BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 18 Feb 19 - 11:31 AM

"Strong rumours that Honda are to quit the UK "
Must have an abscess
As they say Abscess makes the fart go "Honda"
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 18 Feb 19 - 10:09 AM

Strong rumours that Honda are to quit the UK post Brexit and close their Swindon factory in 2022 with the loss of 3,500 jobs.

No doubt some will say this is a small price to pay.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 18 Feb 19 - 08:28 AM

Nice twist on Brexit
Seven right wing Labour politicians (4 with direct links to Israel) have left the Labour Party with a view to forming their own party
They give "antisemitism" and Brexit for their reason for doing so
One who isn't involved with Israel was one of the few successful in refusing to reveal the details of her expenses during the scandal
Good riddance to them - perhaps we can see a continuance of progressive Labour policies without being hampered by a yearning for a return to the good old days of 'New Labour's' "Weapons of Mass Destruction" and duck palaces for politicians pets
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 18 Feb 19 - 07:01 AM

In the search for good news, we should not overlook that the UK has struck a deal with the US to in effect roll over an existing EU agreement.

Ok, "keeping what we have" is perhaps stretching the definition of good news too far, but it doesn't immediately look like bad news ... assuming there have been no unpublished additional agreements of course.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 18 Feb 19 - 06:47 AM

Anyway back to Brexit.

I recall being told that nations across the world would be falling over themselves to have trade deals with the UK.

Now it seems that Japan are not too happy with our approach and this is on top of China cancelling trade talks last week.

Take into account Trumps America first approach and we don't seem to having nations beating a path to our door.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Feb 19 - 05:54 AM

I've always thought that any MP who stood and got elected on a party ticket, supported by party workers and party money, then left the party, should step down as an MP as well. They are there under false pretences. Anyway, good riddance. They have all worked to serially undermine Corbyn. Now they'll have to do it as pink Tories. And that'll get them nowhere.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 18 Feb 19 - 05:42 AM

For my part, I have no problem with any MP deciding they will vote according to their beliefs and judgement rather than the whip. In fact, the more, the better. And that applies to all parties.

I note that the breakaway people are calling themselves a group, not a party. That may just be a matter of where they are in the process but it may reflect that that there are enough differences between them they think a new party is a non-starter. They will of course be aware that our system is very unforgiving for new parties as well.


And isn't it an intriguing detail that 8 chairs were put out and seven MPs resigned? A miscount or a no-show I wonder?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 18 Feb 19 - 05:36 AM

Much like the huge divisions within the conservative party really.

Oh course they will be brushed under the carpet by our resident Brexiteers.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 18 Feb 19 - 05:30 AM

The labour luvvies will not like this!
You heard it from Guido!

Labour Split

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 07:49 PM

As we approach the horror of brexit, Kevin, denial has become the brexiteers' mantra. It's notable that, along with that, we are hearing less and less about the "opportunities" that brexit provides. Gone bit quiet, has that. But let's look on the bright side: we have a deal with the Swiss. At least we won't have to pay more for our cuckoo clocks. There's an upside to everything.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 07:20 PM

Essentially it’s the same fallacy you get when climate change deniers assert that, if there turned out to be natural factors that contribute to undesirable change, that means that any contribution to such changes from human activities can be of no importance, and that efforts to deal with them are misguided.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 06:25 PM

How the wren became king of the birds. I hate autocorrect! I only tolerate it because my typing on the phone would be even less decipherable without it...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 06:23 PM

Also English is stuffed with sayings like "the straw that broke the camel's back" And "juggling too many balls" and stories like "how the arena became the king of the birds." Using the juggling metaphor, if it took juggling a specific four to run the business with difficulty, and adding a fifth called Brexit caused everything to be dropped it would be perfectly reasonable to blame the Brexit ball. True, you could have got rid of one of the others and juggled successfully, but you would have been losing one of the key four needed.

Blaming Brexit for a demise can be perfectly reasonable, even if it is comparatively small effect, should it be enough to tip the business over the edge.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:33 PM

Bugger! Missed! :-)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:32 PM

And I've got 700!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:30 PM

700! Don't do it Ravgy!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:26 PM

Well. lets see.

The nearest "city" to where I live in 40 miles.

Now in my youth I may have been able to walk that in 10/11 hours.

Now I fear it may take me a week.

Idiot.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 03:01 PM

Cars are not green. You should walk.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 02:49 PM

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47270616

Try again:-)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 02:48 PM

Now I'n not about the buy a Porsche or a Audi, Lamborghini or a Bugatti.

However I could consider buying a Seat or a Skoda.

Now the German company is warning that prices may increase by 10% after the UK leaves the EU.

One should note that this is in addition to the rises created by the fall in the value of the pound since June 2016.

What price Brexit eh! I fear we're about to find out.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47270616

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 02:22 PM

The main difference being is that Brexit is perceived to be a factor.

A factor of our own making.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 01:22 PM

DMcG I do not really dispute your analysis. What somewhat irritates me is those that latch on to brexit as the sole cause of all things negative. Variable factors impact outcomes, from confidence to the weather. The problem arises in trying to assign the correct weighting to each of the variables besides actually being able to identify them in the first place.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 01:00 PM

This is the second time in about as many weeks I have pointed this out. Brexit can be A factor without being the ONLY or even the MAIN factor., That all low cost carriers are finding it tough does not affect whether Brexit uncertainty makes things tougher.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 12:31 PM

This winter is proving extremely cruel to small airlines, which have high fixed costs and, currently, very low revenues. It has precipitated the collapse of Primera Air, Cobalt of Cyprus and Germania before Flybmi.

Flybe, which is continuing operations as normal, has been rescued by a cash injection from a consortium involving Virgin Atlantic, Stobart Air and a US hedge fund – which bought it for just £2.2m.

Small regional airlines based in the UK are particularly vulnerable. Return journeys on domestic flights are subject to £26 in Air Passenger Duty, placing them at an immediate disadvantage. And whenever a route becomes successful, it is likely that a bigger player will elbow in with larger planes and lower fares.

Lets see a Scandinavian airline, a cypriot airline, and a german airline along with FlyBMI all kicked into touch and Flybe struggling.
All due to Brexit?
Pull the other one!

Awkward things facts.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 11:53 AM

The FlyMBI affair has now been linked to the Brexit fiasco on today's mid-day news, as if we didn't know already
Watch this space, this is just another of more to come
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 10:15 AM

I think their business model had been flawed for years. The only surprise is that they kept trading so long. The dog was dead, the infestation of fleas was insufficient to keep it moving. Brexit will occur after it's wake.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 08:11 AM

Potential purchasers of flyBMI and flybe will take the forecast return for whatever slots they own into account, and they will base any such forecast from today when Brexit is more than a gleam in anyone's eye.

It is silly to blame everything on Brexit. But it is equally silly to refuse to admit Brexit might be causing problems.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 06:48 AM

Everything that affects potential profitability feeds into that forecast, including how Brexit might alter the market.

No one can dispute that.
However the slots were sold off long before brexit was a gleam in anyone's eye. The residue of the company was a stripped out husk losing money from that time if my understanding is correct. From comments I have seen elsewhere it was a dead duck a long time back.
"The airline was heavily loss-making, and no-one was prepared to put in extra funding. The average passenger load per flight was just 18, meaning even the small regional jet planes flown by Flybmi were less than half-full, The typical Ryanair departure has 10 times as many passengers.

Since Flybmi split away from BMI, investors have pumped in £40m, which represents a subsidy of about £13 per passenger ever flown."

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 05:40 AM

It's a well-known fact in our house that a cracked-open bottle of prosecco must be consumed in full as one wouldn't want to be later consuming the flat article. We therefore never have 'a little prosecco" unless there are four or five of us, and even then it prompts the commissioning of a second bottle.

Back to the ruck...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 05:15 AM

I did have a little prosecco on the grounds we had some still around from a party we had, so it was on hand when an family engagement was announced. But that's all, honest.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:54 AM

"Whoops everyone. Talk about brain not being engaged. That was a text to my daughter!"

ROTHLMAO! I was wondering what you were drinking last night...!! :-)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:40 AM

Whoops everyone. Talk about brain not being engaged. That was a text to my daughter!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:39 AM

I am reminded of a brilliant "Rise and Fall or Reginald Perrin" where he invited all the senior staff of his company to a party and they all hung awkwardly aroubd his dining room whwre there was no food, but no one could mention it. After a long time he said, "Right every one, shall we move into the garden now?" Evwryone brightened up becauae obviously all the food was out there ... And it wasn't.

In the end he said there was no food but he had donated all the cost of it to a charity and was sure every one would agree. And of course they had no choice but to agree.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:27 AM

BMI Regional had emerged in 2012 as a spin-off airline, under new owners, after the mainline carrier BMI was sold to British Airways parent IAG. BMI Regional operated services under the brand name Flybmi

Flybe is a totally separate company that is also up for sale, Potential buyers have been mentioned as Easyjet and Stobart.

Brain not fully engaged. Apologies for confusion.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:15 AM

It might be worth mentioning that I used to work for the UK Civil Aviation Authority in the section that regulated the slots at airports, so I can probably say quite a lot about the impact of "EU interference." Suffice it to say that in broad terms, the slots are worth what airlines are prepared to pay, no more, no less and the EU regulations are about ensuring slots are bought to be used, not to held unused to block out competitors. What airlines are prepared to pay depends on their forecast - yes, I am afraid, they do rely on forecasts - of how profitable owning one slot rather than another is. Everything that affects potential profitability feeds into that forecast, including how Brexit might alter the market.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 03:41 AM

I think if you say "FlyBe FACTS" and then go on to talk about FlyBMI which is a completely separate company you must not be surprised if we have certain doubts....

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 03:36 AM

FLYBE Facts:

BMI asset value in 2008 was £12 million.
EU interference made their Heathrow landing slots worth £770 million.
Various airlines bought shares to gain slots and then sold the company on.
By 2012 they were losing £1 million a month.

Where does Brexit come into this ?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 03:09 AM

And FlyBe has said the company will be wound up if a sale is not agreed by shareholders in early March. They blame their problems on currency exchange rates and oil prices. Currency rates, as we all know, have nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit ....

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 12:56 AM

Nah, it's 'Project Fear' Steve!??

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 06:51 PM

So BMI has collapsed, blaming brexit. Wow. Of all the airlines I've used providing flights to Europe, BMI was by far the best. Bollocks.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 06:50 AM

Varadkar is nervously watching his (chlorinated?) chickens starting to come home to roost…

https://order-order.com/2019/02/15/ireland-getting-nervous-eu-stitch/

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteglasgow
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 06:37 AM

there is a great deal of money to be saved by northern parts not being forced to pay for stuff we don't want or need. HS2, trident, crossrail, a military armed way more than is necessary, state funerals for royalty, state security for trump's visit, security for a maggie th..... etc statue, stupidly huge payouts for government brexit or no deal 'planning' outsourcing everything to dodgy groups like carillion, virgin, serco etc.....anyway i could go on. we have renewables, fish, high quality food and whisky. and we won't be dragged into any more stupid wars to suit trump or whoever.

even the most passionate english person can plainly see what a mess and a joke the parliament is - the place is permanently infested with tories and the country has a sizable rump (ooer, missus) who will always support them whatever happens. if you have the chance to cut those links, why wouldn't you?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 05:02 AM

So you do accept forecasts when they suit, then.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 04:24 AM

Well I live near Bude in Cornwall, a town very close to the border with England. I want a backstop and I want it NOW. Bloody Devonians coming here, taking our jobs and shagging our wives...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 04:22 AM

Talking of reunification is all well and good, but does the republic want to pick up the tab? Lefty dreams have a very tangible cost.
£10 billion a year is one figure quoted.


Reality Check

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 04:05 AM

Hey Pete! If Cumbria is going for independence I want to see the reintroducion of the old kingdom of Northumbria so we can go too!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteglasgow
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 03:59 AM

once wales has made its mind up whether it wants to be little little england when England goes for independence or to join Scotland and newly unified Ireland (and Cumbria) in a Celtic Union in the EU, then we are just about sorted. Remains of England can continue to send all the money down to london for HS2, trident, a new Shouty House for the weirdo brexiteer government and maybe a garden bridge and a mr blobby theme park on the grass outside for all the yellow jackets and IDS to play with.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 03:42 AM

I think the position of Northern Ireland after Brexit will probably be a factor in any eventual reunification, but I don't think there will be a "cause and effect." What is true is that had reunification been proposed and agreed over the last two years the whole backstop question would not have arisen.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Neil D
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 01:49 AM

I just read an article that said a No-deal Brexit could lead to a unified Ireland. The premise was that NI would better off economically as part of the Republic than as part of the UK after Brexit. With the last census showing that the Catholic population rapidly gaining on the Protestant population which is aging, it is only a matter of time before the Northern Irish will opt out of the UK.
Could this be possible?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 15 Feb 19 - 01:30 PM

LOL!

Maybe she was trying to make a couple of points...